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IOL News
a day ago
- Business
- IOL News
Urgent call to reopen poultry imports amid supply crisis
The Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) has urged the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development to immediately resume poultry imports from countries that have declared themselves free of Avian Influenza, in line with World Organisation for Animal Health guidelines. The Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) has urged the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development to immediately resume poultry imports from countries that have declared themselves free of Avian Influenza, in line with World Organisation for Animal Health guidelines. These countries include France (February 4, 2025), Sweden (March 31, 2025), and both Denmark and Belgium (May 23, 2025). The last recorded imports from Denmark were in 2020, when South Africa imported an average of 1 384 metric tons of poultry products per month, including both poultry cuts and mechanically deboned meat (MDM). AMIE on Wednesday also welcomed the Department of Agriculture's commitment to make a determination on a partial lifting of the Brazilian import suspension by the end of this week. This would be based on the fact that the Avian Flu outbreak is contained to the Rio Grande do Sol province in Brazil. Brazilian imports are currently halted due to the Avian Influenza outbreak in Rio Grande do Sol, which produces between 10% to 15% of all poultry in that country. Since local producers are unable to meet total demand, particularly for poultry offal and MDM, which South Africa does not produce at scale, it is critical to diversify supply sources to ensure continued affordability, availability, and market stability, it said. Imameleng Mothebe, the CEO of AMIE, said: 'Opening access to each additional AI-free market will help alleviate some of the current poultry supply gap and reduce the growing economic and food security risks created by the current overall suspension of imports from Brazil. Even with a partial lifting of the suspension of imports from Brazil, there will still be a shortfall that will need to be filled in order to maintain consumption demand in our country. Opening additional markets not only fills this gap, but also future proofs South Africa against AI-related supply shortages.' South African Meat Processors Association urged the government to implement zoning (regionalisation) with all haste. "One of our members, Sky Country Meats, has already been forced to lay off almost 100 employees, with more retrenchments to follow next week if imports of MDM are not restored as a matter of absolute urgency," it said.
IOL News
29-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Avian flu threatens 30,000 jobs and food prices in South Africa
With the recent ban on Brazilian chicken imports, South Africa faces a potential crisis as 30,000 jobs in the food sector hang in the balance, and households brace for soaring food prices. Image: File Following a ban on imports of chicken and related products from Brazil earlier this month, an industry expert has said, in addition to nutritional concerns over a lack of this protein source, an estimated 30 000 jobs in food processing, logistics, and manufacturing are at risk. Georg Southey, manager at Merlog Foods, added that the disruption in inexpensive poultry supplies will also cause price spikes in low-cost proteins, further squeezing struggling households. This followed news in the middle of last month that the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock in Brazil had reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza. This was followed, on May 22, by the South African Department of Agriculture announcing that South Africa had suspended trade of live poultry, eggs and fresh (including frozen) poultry meat, while no new import permits will be issued. The Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) has said that this was the first recorded outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza within Brazil's commercial poultry sector. It noted that Brazil supplies over 84% of South Africa's poultry imports. AMIE CEO, Imameleng Mothebe, said: 'A full ban on Brazilian poultry imports to South Africa will have devastating consequences for the South African poultry meat processors and consumers, particularly the most vulnerable in our society.' Southey said that this ban could lead to 'one of the most severe food security crises in recent times' and threatened society's most vulnerable, including children reliant on school feeding schemes. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Given that the outbreak is confined to a single province in Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul, Southey called on government to 'act with urgency' to accept imports from all other provinces that remain unaffected by the virus. He said that this strategy was internationally accepted. Brazil also used to supply mechanically deboned meat used in polony, viennas, and sausages. 'These provide affordable protein to millions of South Africans,' said Southey, adding that neither local producers nor other countries could meet demand in the short-term. Warning that South Africa only had 2.5 weeks of food reserves in some categories, Southey said, without alternative measures, there is likely to be a shortage of 400 million meals per month, or seven meals a month per person. 'Two weeks of import shipments have already been lost and a further 100 million meals will be lost every week,' he said. Brazil has already instituted surveillance measures and is sharing real-time data, said Southey. Neighbouring country Namibia and Japan have adopted regionalisation protocols in similar situations, he added. IOL
The South African
28-05-2025
- Health
- The South African
Chicken crisis in South Africa: Here's why offal prices have skyrocketed
The Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) has warned of serious economic and food insecurity consequences for South Africa as a result the recent outbreak of Avian Influenza (HPAI) in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul. Local producers cannot, and will not be able to meet the gap in supply of poultry offal (feet, gizzards, and skins) and mechanically deboned meat (MDM), driving up prices and threatening the affordability and accessibility of basic protein for millions. Brazil is the world's largest exporter of poultry products, and accounts for 73% of poultry (excluding MDM) imported by South Africa, including frozen bone-in chicken and offal (feet, livers, necks and carcasses). It also exports 92% of all MDM imported to South Africa, with a monthly average of 18 000 metric tons over the past year, which is vital in the production of processed meat products. Imameleng Mothebe, CEO of AMIE, says, 'Chicken offal and MDM are not luxuries. They are foundational to school feeding programmes, and the production of processed meats which are the most affordable proteins for low-income households. Ultimately, Brazilian MDM is the source of over 400 million poultry-based meals per month for South Africa. 'Whilst we appreciate the commitment by SA poultry producers to increase their production by four million birds per month during the closure of Brazil poultry exports, the fact is that local producers alone cannot fill the gap in the production of offal and SA effectively does not produce MDM at commercial scale. In addition, alternative international markets also do not have the scale or available supply of the product mix to replace Brazil's exports to South Africa.' The table below of official South African import statistics per month, indicates the number of chickens required per category to meet local demand for offal. Cut Description Average Metric Tonnes (Mt) Imported from Brazil Per Month Estimated Number of Chickens required Chicken Feet 4 071 54 million Chicken Livers 467 10 million Chicken Gizzards 1 505 31 million Using the estimated output of an additional four million birds a month from local producers, and bearing in mind that the local industry will not be able to produce any additional MDM, the following shortfalls in offal per month will remain: Chicken feet – 3 773 MT tonnes per month Gizzards – 1 315 MT tonnes per month Livers – 287 MT tonnes per month. Mothebe said, 'Without urgent action to put in place a regionalisation agreement with Brazil, which would allow for the import of products from areas not affected by the outbreak, price increases and food shortages for consumers, and job losses for local manufacturers of processed meats who employ over 125 000 workers, will follow.' The economic impact of the shortfalls are already being felt in the market, warns Mothebe. With the current shortage of MDM, processed meat producers are facing cost surges as inventory levels are thinning, and shelf prices are starting to reflect this reality. MDM prices have surged from R13 to R31/kg, while offal like gizzards and skins have seen double-digit increases. These increases will be compounded by rising input costs, especially with the recently announced fuel levy hike in the national budget, which adds inflationary pressure across the value chain. This pressure will inevitably be passed on to consumers, resulting in food affordability pressures for the majority of the consumers. Mothebe says, 'We support government continuing engagements with Brazil towards regionalisation, a concept that demarcates affected areas whilst the rest of the country remains open. Regionalisation is widely accepted and supported by the World Organisation of Animal Health (WOAH), especially in light of the ongoing global diseases phenomenon.' Many countries are currently concluding regionalisation agreements with Brazil and therefore will soon be re-opening their markets to Brazilian imports. This week Namibia announced the re-opening of poultry imports from Brazil as a result of concluding regionalisation agreement between the two countries. Mothebe says, 'We urge that the conclusion of engagements between South Africa and Brazil are expedited, to minimise the impact on the South African economy and consumers alike. 'The current situation is not just a trade issue, it's about protecting jobs, businesses, consumer affordability and food security'. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
Medscape
23-05-2025
- Health
- Medscape
From Dr Google to AI: Why Moravec's Paradox Still Matters
Remember the eye-rolling days when patients arrived armed with printouts from 'Dr Google' — a jumble of chat-forum anecdotes, WebMD symptom lists, and the occasional PubMed abstract? That DIY differential diagnosis was more often noise than knowledge, but it signaled something profound: Anyone with wi-fi could enter the diagnostic dialogue. Around the same time, another cautionary tale landed in radiology — the image of a gorilla hidden in lung CTs that most experts missed, reminding us that attention is finite and perception fallible. Both stories set the stage for Moravec's paradox: Computers excel at the heavy cognitive lifting we struggle with (data synthesis, instant recall), but cannot mimic the human art of empathy, context, and creativity. In a recent NEJM AI Perspective, my co-author Scott Penberthy and I argued that acknowledging this asymmetry is the key to collaborative intelligence, not clinician replacement. Enter Google DeepMind's AMIE (Articulate Medical Intelligence Explorer) — a large language model agent that doesn't just search but also converses, asks follow-up questions, interprets images, and even scores higher than physicians on empathy scales. Has 'Dr Google' been reborn with a medical degree in Silicon Valley? Let's dive in and find out. AMIE, Then and Now AMIE was introduced in an April 2025 Nature study in which it out-diagnosed board-certified primary care physicians across 159 simulated cases and scored higher on 25 of 26 empathy metrics. The machine's edge came from the exact tasks humans find the hardest: perfect recall, tireless synthesis, and accurate arithmetic. The machine also showed off a newer ability: empathy skills. Vision-Enabled Leap On May 1, Google DeepMind unveiled multimodal AMIE, powered by Gemini 2.x. The upgraded agent now asks for lab slips, ECGs, or skin photos mid-chat, interprets them on the fly, and incorporates the findings into its differential. In a 105-case virtual objective structured clinical examination (OSCE), the upgraded AMIE equaled or surpassed primary care physicians on image interpretation and top-3 diagnostic accuracy (up 6 percentage points over the earlier build) — in nearly two thirds of patient encounters, the correct diagnosis appeared somewhere in the AI's first three guesses on its differential list. It's a pragmatic yardstick, good enough to flag most of the right answers without demanding single-shot perfection. Multimodal AMIE can also mimic empathy, all while maintaining human-level hallucination rates (its occasional detours from reality are on par with our own). Such machines are edging into jobs once parked squarely in the 'easy for humans' column, plus it knows when to ask for that extra image or lab, then stitches every clue into a tidy differential, and explains the findings in plain language (Table). Table. Moravec's Matrix: 2025 Edition Hard for Humans, Easy for AI Hard for AI, Easy for Humans Multimodal data synthesis (EHR + derm photo + ECG trace) Reading nonverbal cues on video/in-person Rapid trial-eligibility scanning Physical dexterity (phlebotomy, palpation) Ultrafast literature retrieval and real-time drug–drug checks Explaining uncertainty and negotiating goals of care Automated EHR summarization and coding Cultural context, creative problem-solving Adapted from Loaiza-Bonillo A, Penberthy S. NEJM AI. April 24, 2025. Case in Point: Decentralized Trials Our NEJM AI paper details how AI flips the 'clinical-trial enrollment paradox.' By matching inclusion and exclusion criteria against millions of records in seconds, AI shortens recruitment timelines and makes studies more accessible to community sites that once lacked the manpower for manual screening. It's Moravec's paradox in action. Guardrails: Bias, Validation, Reality Checks The creators of multimodal AMIE warn that even with Gemini 2.5 gains, chat-based OSCEs do not adequately represent real clinics — there are no facial expressions, no auscultation, nor tactile exams. Their prospective study with Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center is exactly the kind of external validation every health-system chief information officer should demand. Despite its advances, if we want to effectively harness clinical AI, we must keep in mind the following: Algorithmic bias: Blind spots in training data widen inequities, and audited fairness metrics would need to be mandatory. Blind spots in training data widen inequities, and audited fairness metrics would need to be mandatory. External validation: Models proven only in silico (purely simulated) wilt in heterogeneous clinics, and multi-institutional trials are the new gold standard. Models proven only in silico (purely simulated) wilt in heterogeneous clinics, and multi-institutional trials are the new gold standard. AI Governance: Multidisciplinary safety boards must monitor postdeployment drift and hallucination rates. Even a rock-solid model can slide off course after launch as disease patterns shift or new drugs hit the market. AI requires continuous monitoring and periodic tune-ups to keep it clinically honest. Here's a playbook for clinicians to ensure collaborative intelligence, not physician replacement, when using AI. Pilot, measure, iterate: Join controlled rollouts of conversational AI, with metrics on accuracy, satisfaction, and bias. Audit for equity: Check that your population's language, literacy, and socioeconomic mix is reflected in training and evaluation. Master AI literacy: Learn prompt engineering and failure modes so you can override the machine when intuition disagrees. Champion human strengths: Double down on empathy, cultural competence, and dexterity — the tasks robots still fumble with. Seeing Past the Next Gorilla AMIE shows that large language models can talk medicine almost as well as they see tumors, and with vision-enabled agents already interpreting rashes and ECGs mid-chat, that 'conversation' swiftly becomes like a mini-physical exam. If we deploy these tools responsibly — auditing for bias, validating in a messy reality, and preserving our uniquely human gifts — we won't just catch invisible gorillas, we'll transform the diagnostic conversation itself. As large language models continue to evolve, I would want them to deal with all my prior authorization approvals and our convoluted health system as well as it navigates medical data. How cool would that be? I'd love to hear your thoughts on the evolving partnership between AI and radiology. Feel free to reach out at Let's keep the conversation going — and Moravec's paradox relevant.
The Citizen
20-05-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
Bird flu brings foul times: Chicken shortage and price hike loom in South Africa
South Africa risks a chicken shortage if the Department of Agriculture bans imports from Brazil. South Africans must brace for a potential rise in chicken prices, as the government is expected to ban imports from Brazil following a recent outbreak of avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, in that country Brazil supplies more than 84% of South Africa's poultry imports. Should the Department of Agriculture ban the imports, the poultry industry in SA could face a massive shortage, leaving the industry little to no choice but to increase prices. The same measures may be forced upon Astral Foods, South Africa's largest poultry producer, which is already under pressure from rising input costs despite remaining profitable. ALSO READ: Bird flu: Farmers can apply for compensation for animals destroyed Chicken shortage The Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) has urged the government to avoid a blanket ban on Brazilian imports and instead adopt a regionalisation strategy that targets only the specific areas affected by the outbreak. This approach has already been announced by Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Philippines in response to the outbreak in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul. AMIE CEO Imameleng Mothebe warned that a full ban on Brazilian poultry imports would have devastating consequences for South African poultry processors and consumers, particularly the country's most vulnerable. The importance of chicken imports 'Imported poultry not only fills the country's poultry consumption gap, but also provides the necessary competition to ensure that prices are kept in check. 'Chicken is the most affordable protein source for many South Africans, and a disruption in the supply of poultry products, including bone-in chicken and mechanically deboned meat (MDM), will significantly drive up prices and impact food security,' she added. Mothebe said a blanket ban on imports will lead to sharp increases in the prices of these products, making them unaffordable for many, particularly those in low-income communities. If this happens, it would exacerbate food insecurity at a time when consumers are already facing high inflation and economic pressures. Coupled with this is the potential job losses arising from the unavailability of MDM product required to keep the meat processing facilities running. ALSO READ: Egg prices increasing globally due to US shortage — Should SA take advantage and export? SA has potential With more than 84% of South Africa's poultry imports coming from Brazil, it is highly possible that the country would face a chicken shortage. However, the South African Poultry Association (Sapa) holds a different view. Izaak Breitenbach, CEO of Sapa's Broiler Organisation, said SA has enough capability to make up for the shortfall. 'We are currently producing about 21.5 million chickens per week, and the industry has the capacity to increase this by about another million birds per week. He added that winter months are a period of lower demand for chicken. Therefore, the additional supply of chicken should be sufficient to prevent shortages or price increases. 'The impact of a ban on Brazilian chicken imports will not be felt immediately. Chicken imports from Brazil can take about six weeks to reach South Africa, and products dispatched before the ban is implemented will not be affected.' Brazil has no compartmentalisation deal Breitenbach added that if Brazil had a compartmentalisation agreement with South Africa, chicken imports from other parts of Brazil that are not affected by the bird flu outbreak would be allowed. 'If there is a problem following a ban on Brazilian imports, it will concern MDM, not fresh or frozen chicken meat. MDM is a paste used in the production of processed meats, such as polony and sausages; it is not produced in large quantities in South Africa.' MDM accounts for about 60% of our poultry imports from Brazil. The second-largest category is offal – products such as chicken heads, feet, gizzards, and livers. A far smaller proportion, 4.5% of Brazilian imports, comprises bone-in chicken portions such as leg quarters, thighs, drumsticks and wings. The Citizen has reached out to the Department of Agriculture for a comment. Company loses profit Astral Foods' financial results for the six months ended 31 March 2025 show the company lost 51% of its profit before interest and tax due to higher input costs. The company is under pressure due to increased costs and its inability to pass these costs on to consumers by raising food prices. The results show the business was able to see more chicken during the six months. However, these sales were made with selling prices down 3.1% year-on-year. Astral Foods effectively subsidised the cost of producing chicken during the period, resulting in a loss of R26 million for the poultry division. NOW READ: Here are the economic and social impacts of bird flu
