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Japan Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
China consumption miss overshadows factory strength amid tariffs
China's industrial output expanded faster than expected in April while consumption disappointed, highlighting the challenges facing the world's second-largest economy despite a quick de-escalation of trade tensions with the U.S. Industrial output climbed 6.1% on year in April, slowing from the prior month but far exceeding the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Retail sales growth, a key gauge of consumption, also weakened from March to 5.1%, according to figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, below economists' projection. Despite the resilience of factories, weaker consumption for April points to the need for more supportive policies as economists warn of complacency after a 90-day pause on tariffs. China's prolonged property crisis, deflationary pressure and worries about unemployment are weighing on confidence among households. The government, which set an ambitious economic growth target of about 5% for 2025, has previously made boosting domestic consumption a priority this year. Stay updated on the trade wars. Quality journalism is more crucial than ever. Help us get the story right. For a limited time, we're offering a discounted subscription plan. Unlimited access US$30 US$18 /mo FOREVER subscribe NOW "Rosy industrial production figures reflect only one part of the economy,' said Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. "But April retail sales figures show that people are not willing to spend. To achieve 5% growth, we still need consumption.' The urban jobless rate fell slightly to 5.1% in April, while growth in fixed-asset investment slowed to 4% in the first four months of the year. China's new home prices dropped at a faster pace in April. The offshore yuan held little changed after the data release. Yields on China's 10-year government bonds edged lower slightly to 1.67%. A gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong pared early losses following the data. The snapshot of the economy offers the fullest look yet at how China coped with a drastic escalation in trade tensions with the U.S. While the two sides in May reached the truce in their tariff war, the uncertainty surrounding further negotiations toward a final deal could keep businesses cautious about expanding production or investing in new projects. Still, the surprise performance of industrial production provides further evidence that China was able to dodge a steep slowdown as it navigated the onset of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. Exports in April also rose more than forecast, as companies diverted goods to Southeast Asia and Europe to compensate for a plunge in shipments to the U.S. A few major international banks including Goldman Sachs Group upgraded their forecasts for China's 2025 growth last week, although their views remain below Beijing's target. Many economists are also expecting the de-escalation to buy the government more time before it needs to deploy more stimulus to prop up the economy. The agreement "between the U.S. and China could have reduced tariff uncertainties while domestic policymakers could further switch into a wait-and-see mode,' Citigroup economists including Xiangrong Yu wrote in a note last week. Morgan Stanley economists including Robin Xing have dialed back their expectations on a supplementary fiscal package to up to 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) in the fourth quarter, from a previous forecast of as much as 1.5 trillion yuan in July-September. Consumer sentiment has remained fragile amid the property slump and concerns the trade war could cause layoffs in China's massive manufacturing and export sectors. In April, China's program to subsidize purchases of new consumer goods probably contributed to huge gains in sales of home appliances, telecommunications equipment and furniture. At the same time, car purchases — which account for nearly a 10th of total retail sales — grew less than 1% after an increase of 5.5% in March. "This indicates that while measures such as the trade-in policy indeed can help stabilize short term consumption, a more sustainable recovery of consumption may require an improvement in consumer sentiment,' said Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for greater China. That "requires a broader stabilization of asset prices and a recovery of wage growth,' he added.
Time of India
08-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
RBI's dividend payment to govt for FY25 set to beat estimates, could be 50% higher than FY24
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) surplus transfer to North Block for the last fiscal could be as high as ₹3 lakh crore, much higher than that estimated a month ago. Robust gross dollar sales, higher foreign exchange gains, and anticipated increases in interest income should help boost the payout, recent reports by economists said. The new estimate of ₹3 lakh crore is 50% more than the ₹2.1 lakh crore paid in the previous fiscal estimates for FY25 worked with the ballpark of around ₹2-₹2.5 lakh crore, showed an ET poll of 10 institutions published April ANZ Banking Group had estimated a transfer of ₹3.25 lakh crore. The government had estimated a dividend of ₹2.3 lakh crore in its budget."We estimate an RBI dividend of ₹2.6 lakh to ₹3 lakh crore, depending on the level of provisioning. The higher dividend creates a fiscal space of 0.1% to 0.2% of GDP," Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank , said in a report on are raising estimated payouts as the transfer time-window nears. "RBI's FY25 dividend payout to the government is projected to increase, fuelled by higher income from forex reserve deployments due to elevated US treasury yields," a report by the ICICI Research team said. "This boost is further supported by strong commissions from forex operations and interest income on government securities."The dividend could help the Centre shrink the fiscal gap. Plus, spending from the government would pump liquidity into the banking system, and the liquidity would be visible from early July, economists said"Gross dollar sales rose to $371.6 billion in FY25, till February versus $153 billion in FY24. Meanwhile, decline in GSec yields has resulted in MTM (market to market) gains on RBI's holdings of rupee securities. In FY25, RBI's holdings of rupee securities increased by ₹1.95 lakh crore to ₹15.6 lakh crore as of March 2025," according to IDFC First RBI was the top seller of foreign exchange reserves in January among other Asian central banks. Foreign exchange reserves peaked in September 2024 to $704 billion and the RBI is estimated to have sold over $125 billion since then, according to estimates by Nomura and DBS Bank."The RBI undertook significant dollar sales to support the rupee and maintain exchange rate stability. Additionally, tight systemic liquidity prompted the RBI to extend funds to banks, thereby contributing to its interest income. Therefore, the dividend payout for FY25 is likely to be large," said Dhiraj Nim, economist and FX strategist, ANZ Banking Group. Contingency provisions are expected to be similar to last year, or higher. Provisions stood at ₹42,800 crore and is expected to be between ₹40,000 crore and ₹80,000 crore, according to IDFC First surplus amount of the dividend is arrived at on the basis of the Economic Capital Framework (ECF) adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019 as per recommendations of the Expert Committee to Review the ECF chaired by former governor Bimal Jalan. Committee had recommended that the risk provisioning under the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) be maintained within a range of 6.5% to 5.5% of the RBI's balance sheet.
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ACEN Australia secures $473.5m for renewables portfolio expansion
ACEN Australia has secured $473.5m (A$750m) in portfolio debt financing to bolster its clean energy initiatives in Australia. The financing supports the company's ongoing and future renewable projects, highlighting ACEN Australia's commitment as a long-term investor in the nation's clean economy. The funding will support the nearly finished 400MW Stubbo Solar project in New South Wales and follows the first power output from the 400MW Stage 1 of the New England solar project in 2023. The deal was supported by a group of 11 lenders from Australia and overseas, broadening ACEN Australia's network of finance partners and highlighting strong market trust in the company's growth plans and proven performance. ACEN Australia managing director David Pollington stated: 'Our ability to attract top-tier financial partners re-inforces our position as a trusted, long-term developer, owner and operator of assets, and reflects growing investor appetite for high-quality, renewable infrastructure in Australia.' The financing establishes a funding base for ACEN Australia's diverse portfolio, which includes more than 1GW of renewable capacity in operation and under construction, with an additional 13GW in development across the national electricity market. ACEN Australia chief financial and investments officer Phillip Mak stated: 'This transaction strengthens our funding platform, accelerates our delivery pipeline and positions us as a capable partner backed by a stable and diverse capital base.' The transaction involved a range of financial institutions: ANZ Banking Group, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CTBC Bank Co (Singapore branch), CTBC Bank (Philippines) and Cathay United Bank. Other participants included Deutsche Bank (Sydney branch), DBS Bank (Australia branch) and Westpac Banking. Macquarie Capital and Morgan Stanley acted as joint financial advisors for the transaction, with Allens serving as legal adviser for ACEN Australia and Herbert Smith Freehills advising the lenders. ACEN is on track to achieve 100% renewable energy generation by 2025 and reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. "ACEN Australia secures $473.5m for renewables portfolio expansion" was originally created and published by Power Technology, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.
See - Sada Elbalad
11-04-2025
- Business
- See - Sada Elbalad
US Dollar Falls at Sharpest Pace in Three Years
Taarek Refaat The US dollar fell at its sharpest pace in three years, while the cost of hedging against further declines jumped to its highest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The overall weakness in the US currency continued during Asian trading on Friday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index ending Thursday's trading in New York down 1.5%, its biggest daily loss since 2022. Investors moved away from Latin American currencies toward safe havens such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, while the euro and pound also benefited from this shift. The Swiss franc rose about 4% on Thursday to 0.8254 against the dollar, its biggest jump since 2015, when the Swiss National Bank surprised markets by abandoning its cap on the currency against the euro. The Japanese yen also advanced more than 2%. The euro jumped 3.48% against the U.S. dollar to 1.13, while the pound sterling traded higher 3.68% to 1.30 against the U.S. currency. "US assets are clearly underperforming amid the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and growing concerns about the US economic outlook," said Felix Rein, an analyst at ANZ Banking Group in Sydney. "So far, the European currency and safe havens have been the biggest beneficiaries." The cost of options used to hedge against a dollar decline against a basket of rival currencies over the coming week rose to its highest level since March 2020, compared to the costs associated with betting on gains. Amid mounting economic concerns, traders increased their bets on deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. Stocks fell again after the Trump administration announced a 145% increase in tariffs on China. The global currency market, which trades at $7.5 trillion a day, has been in a state of tension since Donald Trump returned to the White House and his erratic announcements on tariff policies. The dollar index has lost more than 6% since its February peak and was down about 0.3% on Friday. read more CBE: Deposits in Local Currency Hit EGP 5.25 Trillion Morocco Plans to Spend $1 Billion to Mitigate Drought Effect Gov't Approves Final Version of State Ownership Policy Document Egypt's Economy Expected to Grow 5% by the end of 2022/23- Minister Qatar Agrees to Supply Germany with LNG for 15 Years Business Oil Prices Descend amid Anticipation of Additional US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Business Suez Canal Records $704 Million, Historically Highest Monthly Revenue Business Egypt's Stock Exchange Earns EGP 4.9 Billion on Tuesday Business Wheat delivery season commences on April 15 News Egypt confirms denial of airspace access to US B-52 bombers News Ayat Khaddoura's Final Video Captures Bombardment of Beit Lahia Lifestyle Pistachio and Raspberry Cheesecake Domes Recipe News Australia Fines Telegram $600,000 Over Terrorism, Child Abuse Content Arts & Culture Nicole Kidman and Keith Urban's $4.7M LA Home Burglarized Videos & Features Bouchra Dahlab Crowned Miss Arab World 2025 .. Reem Ganzoury Wins Miss Arab Africa Title (VIDEO) Sports Neymar Announced for Brazil's Preliminary List for 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers News Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly Inaugurates Two Indian Companies Arts & Culture New Archaeological Discovery from 26th Dynasty Uncovered in Karnak Temple Arts & Culture Arwa Gouda Gets Married (Photos)
South China Morning Post
27-01-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Hong Kong's economy to benefit from capital flow, rate cut: ANZ
Beijing's recent measures will lead to more capital flows into Hong Kong equities, becoming a key driver of the city's growth in the Year of the Snake, according to the regional chief economist at ANZ Banking Group. Further interest-rate cuts would increase property transactions, while an influx of tourists would also benefit the city's economy, Raymond Yeung said. 'In the Year of the Snake, Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow between 2.5 and 3 per cent,' Yeung said in a briefing on the outlook for the Lunar New Year starting on January 29. 'The city will see more tailwinds than headwinds in the coming year.' A raft of measures could boost Hong Kong's capital markets and its economy. At the Asian Financial Forum earlier this month, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) governor Pan Gongsheng said Beijing would increase the 'asset allocation operation in Hong Kong' from the nation's US$3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserves. 13:49 Year of the Snake predictions: How will your Chinese zodiac animal fare in 2025? Year of the Snake predictions: How will your Chinese zodiac animal fare in 2025? Pan also said regulators would encourage 'more high-quality enterprises to list and issue bonds in Hong Kong', while plans were afoot to expand the cross-border Bond Connect scheme.
