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Forbes
26-07-2025
- Climate
- Forbes
No, Hurricane Activity Is Not Behind Schedule Right Now
This image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Tropical ... More Storm Chantal as it moves from South Carolina into central North Carolina on Sunday, July 6, 2025. (NOAA via AP) As the Atlantic hurricane season continues, there are questions arising about whether activity is behind schedule. My answer is, 'Not really,' but it depends on how you look at it. As the Atlantic basin shows signs of life in coming weeks, here's a breakdown of what we typically expect as we enter August, and why there may be a perception of a 'slow' start. I was prompted to write these thoughts after seeing assertions that the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start. One article pointed to only one storm, Chantal, making landfall in the continental U.S. and low Accumulated Cyclone Energy. ACE is a jargony term that is meaningless to most of you reading this, but it grabs the attention of many colleagues in the weather community. A NOAA website defined ACE as, 'A wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the estimated 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named systems while they are at least tropical storm strength.' A water rescue unit with the Durham Fire Department knocks on doors at Rippling Streams Townhomes in ... More the Old Farm neighborhood along the Eno River in Durham on Monday morning, July 7, 2025, after flash flooding caused by Tropical Storm Chantal. (Travis Long/The News & Observer/Tribune News Service via Getty Images) At this point in the season, ACE is typically near 9, according to a blog post by meteorologist Brylee Brown, but it currently sits at just over 1 thanks to short-lived Tropical Storms Andrea, Barry and Chantal. As a reference point, Brown pointed out that ACE was close to 250 in the hyperactive 2005 season that produced Hurricane Katrina almost twenty years ago and exhausted the name list. Candidly, this discussion gets to one of my pet peeves. Sure, ACE is low and only one storm has made landfall on U.S. soil, but those storms had significant impact. The remnants of Tropical Storm Barry were in the 'moisture mix' that caused catastrophic flooding in Texas Hill Country, and Tropical Storm Chantal produced dangerous flooding in parts of North Carolina, including Durham and Chapel Hill. I continue to argue that there is too much of fixation with indices and scale categories rather than impact. Yes, they are useful for some aspects of risk communication but often overlook the full scope of impacts. KERRVILLE, TEXAS - JULY 04: Trees emerge from flood waters along the Guadalupe River on July 4, 2025 ... More in Kerrville, Texas. Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas with multiple fatalities reported. (Photo by) From a meteorological perspective, the Atlantic basin has experienced weeks of wind shear, plumes of Saharan dust, and unfavorable temperatures in the upper part of the atmosphere. Hurricane formation is impeded by such conditions, however, there are signs that conditions will become more favorable in the coming weeks. In fact, the latest European model ensemble 'teases' something to watch in the coming week. I will come back to that in a moment. Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity from 1944 to 2020. I will respectfully push back on narratives that we are 'off to a slow start.' The most active part of the Atlantic season is the period spanning August to October with September representing the climatological peak. As noted, by some metrics, this may be the 'slowest' start since 2009. However, here is a reality check. The third named storm of the year typically forms on August 3. This year, the third named storm, Chantal, formed in early July. The first hurricane does not typically form until August 11, according to NOAA data. The first major hurricane (category 3 or higher) does not develop, on average, until September 1. Typical progress of named storm and hurricane formation during the Atlantic hurricane season. As we approach the first week of August, things are, well, doing what we expect them to do. Activity, particularly in the main development region of the Atlantic Ocean, starts to pick up. Hurricane expert Michael Lowry wrote in his Substack blog, 'One feature most models are now picking up on is a fast-moving tropical wave set to emerge over the eastern Atlantic early next week.' He also indicated that some the newer AI models like Google's DeepMindAI and the European AI ensembles are bullish on more activity around the week of August 3. The next named storm will be 'Dexter.' Typical August activity in the Atlantic basin. The peak of Atlantic hurricane season activity has not changed. What has changed is that in recent decades we have become more conditioned to expect activity before August 1. With such perspectives, it is understandable that an early 2025 season with 3 named storms by August is considered a 'slow start.' Experts are still calling for average or slightly above-average season with around 8 hurricanes. We are entering the 'find out' part of the year so prepare accordingly. Typical September activity in the Atlantic basin.
Boston Globe
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. Advertisement 'Everything is in place for an above average season,' he said. Despite 'The hurricane center is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.' Advertisement Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal. Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years. 'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research. Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said. 'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters,' Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.' Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said. Advertisement With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said. Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said. Several other groups besides NOAA — private, public and academic — have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters — 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors — heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said. 'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.' Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew. 'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — With warmer than normal ocean waters, forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy hurricane season for the Atlantic. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday unveiled its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1 and stretches through the end of November, with a 60% chance it will above normal, 30% chance near normal and just 10% chance it will be quieter than average. The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). A normal season has 14 named storms, seven of which strengthen to hurricanes and three power up further to major hurricanes. Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. 'Everything is in place for an above average season," he said. Despite massive job cuts at NOAA from the Department of Government Efficiency, 'our ability to serve this country has never been better and it will be this year as well,' Graham said at a news conference Thursday in Gretna, Louisiana, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. 'The hurricane center is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.' Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal. Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years. 'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research. Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said. 'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters," Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.' Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said. With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said. Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said. Several other groups besides NOAA — private, public and academic — have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters — 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors — heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said. 'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.' Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew. 'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
San Francisco Chronicle
22-05-2025
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — With warmer than normal ocean waters, forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy hurricane season for the Atlantic. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday unveiled its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1 and stretches through the end of November, with a 60% chance it will above normal, 30% chance near normal and just 10% chance it will be quieter than average. The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). A normal season has 14 named storms, seven of which strengthen to hurricanes and three power up further to major hurricanes. Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. 'Everything is in place for an above average season," he said. Despite massive job cuts at NOAA from the Department of Government Efficiency, 'our ability to serve this country has never been better and it will be this year as well,' Graham said at a news conference Thursday in Gretna, Louisiana, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. 'The hurricane center is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.' Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal. Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years. 'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research. Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said. 'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters," Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.' Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said. With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said. Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said. Several other groups besides NOAA — private, public and academic — have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters — 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors — heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said. 'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.' Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew. 'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said. ___
Winnipeg Free Press
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Winnipeg Free Press
Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — With warmer than normal ocean waters, forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy hurricane season for the Atlantic. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday unveiled its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1 and stretches through the end of November, with a 60% chance it will above normal, 30% chance near normal and just 10% chance it will be quieter than average. The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). A normal season has 14 named storms, seven of which strengthen to hurricanes and three power up further to major hurricanes. Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. 'Everything is in place for an above average season,' he said. Despite massive job cuts at NOAA from the Department of Government Efficiency, 'our ability to serve this country has never been better and it will be this year as well,' Graham said at a news conference Thursday in Gretna, Louisiana, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. 'The hurricane center is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.' Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal. Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years. 'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research. Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said. 'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters,' Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.' Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said. With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said. Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said. Several other groups besides NOAA — private, public and academic — have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters — 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors — heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said. Wednesdays A weekly look towards a post-pandemic future. 'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.' Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew. 'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
