Latest news with #AccumulatedCycloneEnergy
Boston Globe
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. Advertisement 'Everything is in place for an above average season,' he said. Despite 'The hurricane center is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.' Advertisement Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal. Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years. 'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research. Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said. 'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters,' Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.' Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said. Advertisement With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said. Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said. Several other groups besides NOAA — private, public and academic — have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters — 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors — heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said. 'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.' Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew. 'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — With warmer than normal ocean waters, forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy hurricane season for the Atlantic. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday unveiled its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1 and stretches through the end of November, with a 60% chance it will above normal, 30% chance near normal and just 10% chance it will be quieter than average. The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). A normal season has 14 named storms, seven of which strengthen to hurricanes and three power up further to major hurricanes. Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. 'Everything is in place for an above average season," he said. Despite massive job cuts at NOAA from the Department of Government Efficiency, 'our ability to serve this country has never been better and it will be this year as well,' Graham said at a news conference Thursday in Gretna, Louisiana, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. 'The hurricane center is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.' Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal. Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years. 'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research. Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said. 'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters," Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.' Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said. With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said. Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said. Several other groups besides NOAA — private, public and academic — have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters — 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors — heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said. 'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.' Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew. 'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
San Francisco Chronicle
22-05-2025
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — With warmer than normal ocean waters, forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy hurricane season for the Atlantic. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday unveiled its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1 and stretches through the end of November, with a 60% chance it will above normal, 30% chance near normal and just 10% chance it will be quieter than average. The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). A normal season has 14 named storms, seven of which strengthen to hurricanes and three power up further to major hurricanes. Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. 'Everything is in place for an above average season," he said. Despite massive job cuts at NOAA from the Department of Government Efficiency, 'our ability to serve this country has never been better and it will be this year as well,' Graham said at a news conference Thursday in Gretna, Louisiana, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. 'The hurricane center is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.' Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal. Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years. 'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research. Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said. 'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters," Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.' Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said. With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said. Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said. Several other groups besides NOAA — private, public and academic — have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters — 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors — heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said. 'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.' Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew. 'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said. ___
Winnipeg Free Press
22-05-2025
- Climate
- Winnipeg Free Press
Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — With warmer than normal ocean waters, forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy hurricane season for the Atlantic. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday unveiled its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1 and stretches through the end of November, with a 60% chance it will above normal, 30% chance near normal and just 10% chance it will be quieter than average. The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). A normal season has 14 named storms, seven of which strengthen to hurricanes and three power up further to major hurricanes. Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. 'Everything is in place for an above average season,' he said. Despite massive job cuts at NOAA from the Department of Government Efficiency, 'our ability to serve this country has never been better and it will be this year as well,' Graham said at a news conference Thursday in Gretna, Louisiana, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. 'The hurricane center is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.' Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal. Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years. 'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research. Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said. 'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters,' Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.' Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said. With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said. Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said. Several other groups besides NOAA — private, public and academic — have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters — 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors — heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said. Wednesdays A weekly look towards a post-pandemic future. 'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.' Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew. 'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
Yahoo
06-03-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
What is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)? How it's used to measure tropical activity
An index developed to track the power of named storms around the world is known as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or what is often referred to as the ACE. The index uses a complex equation involving sustained wind speeds and a cyclone's duration into a single value, which accumulates as long as the system maintains at least tropical storm strength. A cyclone that lasts longer and has more powerful winds will have a greater ACE value than a system that remains weak and has a short lifespan. For example, Tropical Storm Colin, which developed off the coast of Georgia in 2022 and was classified as a minimal tropical storm for only 18 hours and racked up a total ACE value of 0.3675. In contrast, Hurricane Ivan in 2004 accumulated nearly 70 ACE points and became a Category 5 hurricane during its month-long trek through the Caribbean, Southeast U.S., and back into the Gulf. Ivan holds the record for accumulating the most ACE points of any single cyclone in the basin and even produced more energy than some entire seasons, with all storm values combined. According to Colorado State University, the average year in the Atlantic basin produces an ACE value of 122.5, but during active seasons, this value can approach double that amount. At least eight years have produced a combined season ACE of at least 200, which are often referred to as hyperactive seasons. A season that accumulates an ACE of at least 121.2 is considered to be more active than normal, and eight of the nine years following 2015 all achieved this status. Beware Of The "I" Storm: It Has More Retirees Than Any Letter Used For Atlantic Hurricane Names The late Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University developed the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index and publicly unveiled it in 1994. Since its inception, the 2005 season became a record-holder, with an ACE of over 245 units, with a few years in the early 1900s and 1800s possibly generating greater amounts. Storms such as Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma all formed during the record-breaking year, with Wilma being responsible for 32 of the ACE points. While Wilma was not a classic, long-track Cape Verde cyclone, its rapid intensification into the most powerful hurricane ever seen in the Caribbean allowed it to accumulate ACE at a rate of more than 2 units every six hours. According to NOAA, more than 50 people were killed by the cyclone, and damage was estimated to be more than $26 billion. Wilma's ACE value was comparable to Hurricane Beryl in 2024, which produced nearly 40 units, aided by its much longer track that began in the central Atlantic and continued well inland over Texas and Louisiana. A limitation of the ACE index, similar to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, is that it does not account for impacts such as flooding, tornadoes or other inland effects. Hurricane Helene in September 2024 only accumulated an ACE of 7, but its widespread rainfall and flooding caused it to become the seventh costliest U.S. hurricane on record, with damage estimated at $78.7 billion and more than 200 deaths - figures that many may not associate with such a minimal ACE count. Top 5 Strongest Hurricanes Ever Recorded In Atlantic Basin Many tropical weather experts consider the ACE index to be a more accurate representation of a season's activity, particularly in recent years with improved tropical cyclone surveillance, than the overall count of cyclones. With advancements in satellites, models and observations, more cyclones are now identified annually in the Atlantic basin than in the pre-satellite era, when some storms likely went undetected. The increase in detections causes the National Hurricane Center to issue advisories for tropical storms that may last only a few hours to a few days, contributing to inflated cyclone averages when compared to past decades. For instance, in 2023, 20 named storms were tracked across the Atlantic Basin, but only seven intensified into hurricanes, and the season was considered to be the least impactful in at least a decade. Without advanced technology, some of the season's storms - such as Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Gert, Emily, Jose, Katia, Rina and Sean - might never have been classified as tropical cyclones, as they lasted only a few days and had little to no impact on land. The season ended with an ACE of approximately 145.6 units, which was only slightly above normal but not high enough to be considered hyperactive, with an average of just 7.25 ACE points per cyclone. Under the ACE method, the season would not be considered particularly potent, but because the index is not widely recognized, 2023 will forever be remembered for producing nearly two dozen storms, many of which were article source: What is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)? How it's used to measure tropical activity
