Latest news with #AjayKedia
Mint
01-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Gold price outperforms Silver and Sensex in H1CY25; Silver may take the lead in H2
Gold prices witnessed a robust rally in the first half of calendar year 2025 (H1CY25), driven by strong safe-haven demand and a combination of supportive macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The yellow metal outperformed most asset classes during the period, including silver and Indian equity benchmarks. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices surged 26.5% during H1CY25, outpacing the 23% rally in silver prices. In contrast, India's key equity indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — posted relatively modest gains of 7.2% and 8.1%, respectively, during the same period. According to analysts, several key factors — such as geopolitical tensions, expectations around US interest rates, and currency fluctuations — have already been priced into the market and reflected in gold's sharp price gains. Heading into the second half of the year (H2CY25), analysts expect the gold rally to moderate, while silver could potentially emerge as a stronger performer. 'Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding US trade tariffs are diminishing, and expectations now point to either delayed or less aggressive interest rate cuts. The US dollar index, after a steep decline, also appears to be stabilising. These developments could temper the rally in gold prices,' said Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory. Kedia highlighted the falling gold-silver ratio (GSR) — from a recent high of 107 to 91 — as a signal of silver's potential to outperform gold. 'A continued decline in the gold-silver ratio, coupled with easing trade tensions between the US and China, is favourable for silver prices,' he noted. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, expects gold prices to remain elevated in H2CY25 due to lingering geopolitical concerns but cautions about potential pullbacks if global growth recovers. 'MCX gold prices may continue to strengthen into Q3CY25, with key support likely above ₹ 1.05 lakh per 10 grams. Silver, on the other hand, looks poised for further gains, supported by industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles (EVs), along with strong safe-haven flows and technical indicators,' Trivedi said. He added that bullish triggers for gold include renewed geopolitical flare-ups and sustained central bank buying. However, a global economic rebound, delayed rate cuts, or weakening demand could pose downside risks. Silver is expected to benefit from rising industrial usage and supply constraints, while potential headwinds include profit booking, a stronger dollar, and a slowing economy. Trivedi recommends a balanced investment approach: 'Gold provides portfolio stability and acts as an insurance during times of crisis, while silver offers higher upside potential — albeit with greater volatility.' For H2CY25, MCX gold prices are expected to find support around the ₹ 92,000 level, while COMEX gold may see support near $3,150 per ounce. Support for MCX silver is projected at ₹ 95,000 per kilogram, with COMEX silver likely to find support around $32.80 per ounce, according to Jigar Trivedi. Ajay Kedia noted that COMEX gold prices could find support in the range of $3,080 to $3,100 per ounce, with resistance anticipated between $3,500 and $3,640. He added that if COMEX silver breaches the $37 mark, it could potentially test $40, while key support is placed at $32.50 per ounce. In the domestic market, Kedia expects MCX gold price to have support at ₹ 91,500, with resistance at ₹ 1,02,400. A breakout above this level could push prices towards ₹ 1,08,000. For silver, support is seen in the ₹ 97,450 to ₹ 1,01,000 range, while resistance is expected between ₹ 1,12,000 and ₹ 1,30,000 during H2CY25. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
News18
19-06-2025
- Business
- News18
Gold May See 10% Correction In 2 Months And 30% Fall In A Year, Say Experts
Last Updated: Gold prices are not changing despite escalations in Middle East; experts say its rates are likely to have peaked out and may fall from $3,400 to $2,400 in a year if tensions ease. Gold Rate Prediction 2025: After rising nearly 30% this year, gold prices are not changing despite escalations in the Middle East tensions. According to experts, the yellow metal is likely to have peaked out and might see a correction of about 10% in the next one-two months and around 30% in the next one year. Backing up their projections, experts say the bullion markets have already factored in geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, and de-dollarisation. Citibank has revised downwards its gold price target for the next one year. According to its report, Citi has cut its gold rate expectation for the next three months from $3,500 per ounce to $3,300, and for the next 6-12 months to $2,800 as against $3,000 an ounce earlier. Ajay Kedia of Kedia Advisory told CNBC Awaaz, 'In the past 10-20 years, we not seen a situation where simulteneous wars are happening in the Middle East as well as in the Black Sea, and still the geopolitical situation is escalating. In seven days of the ongoing Israel-Iran war, gold surged on the first day. But, after that, though tensions have escalated, gold is not reacting. It shows this factor has matured." He, however, said it has been noticed in the past that during such escalations, gold takes a stepback and then makes a recovery. 'For that, gold needs to rise above the $3,500 level in the international market." Currently, spot gold stands at $3,371.15 an ounce in the international market. 'However, whatever story we have heared in the past five years — geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, de-dollarisation; the bullion market has already factored in," he said. 'So, in the next one-two months, gold might see a correction of 8-10% easily. Gold may fall to $2,700-2,800 in the next one year. It might even fall to $2,400 if global tensions ease significantly," Kedia added. The $2,400 is more than 30% down as compared to the current gold price levels. Discussing the impact of higher gold prices on retail market, Shreyansh Kapoor of Kashi Jewellers said rising gold prices are not good sign for the retail market. 'In such a situation, people start selling their old jewellery to take profits. Higher prices also affect wedding budgets." He, however, said it is a good opportunity for those who want to make short-term gains. 'I have never seen so many people coming and selling gold. In my 25 years of experience, I have never seen that so many people are taking out their old jewellery to encash it. Earlier, 5-7% people used to come to sell back their old jewelleries. Now, it is 25%. It includes both exchanging and encashing," Kapoor said. Recently, brokerage house Quant Mutual Fund in its 'Factsheet for June 2025' also said gold has peaked out and might correct by 12-15% in the next two months. 'Gold has peaked out and has the potential to correct by 12-15% in dollar terms over the next two months. However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive, and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals," Quant Mutual Fund stated. Gold prices have increased nearly 30% to $3,355 an ounce this calendar year. It had stood at nearly $2,600 as of January 1, 2025. The rates have increased due to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Investor sentiment turned defensive on the back of US President Donald Trump's tariff decisions, rekindling trade war concerns with China. Escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict further strengthened the safe-haven demand.
Mint
16-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
LME copper price recovers despite escalation in Israel-Iran war, mixed China data; MCX copper price gains
Copper prices in the international market traded higher on Monday, with the LME copper prices recovering some losses, as market sentiment steadied amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to the Israel-Iran war. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper was up 0.34% at $9,677.5 per ton. Copper prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gained 0.19% to 78,550 yuan per metric ton. On MCX, copper prices traded higher. MCX copper rate gained 0.19% to ₹ 877.60 per kg. Copper prices opened higher at ₹ 876.85 as against its previous close of ₹ 875.90. LME copper prices gained, while SHFE copper prices recovered early losses despite cautiousness among investors due to the Middle East tensions and the release of a slew of economic data from China, the world's largest consumer of copper. Mixed economic data from China reinforced market caution, while escalating tensions between Israel and Iran further dampened investor sentiment, analysts said. China's retail sales in May exceeded expectations, while industrial production came in below forecasts. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran intensified over the weekend, with both countries targeting each other's energy infrastructure. This has driven oil prices higher, amplifying inflationary pressures. 'Copper prices have been in a consolidation phase. However, bias for LME copper prices remains positive led by US-China trade tensions and lower inventories. Thus, investors can apply a 'buy on dips' strategy for copper,' said Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory. In light of these developments, the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with markets widely anticipating that interest rates will be held steady at Wednesday's policy meeting. Currently, investors see little to no chance of a rate cut in July. On the technical front, the gold-copper ratio is at elevated levels, and is showing signs of easing, Kedia noted. A drop in gold-copper ratio will further be supportive for the copper prices going ahead, he added. It indicates that copper may outperform gold. According to Ajay Kedia, support for LME copper price is placed at its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) of $9,375 level, while resistance is seen at $9,850 level. 'MCX copper prices may find support at ₹ 846 and resistance at ₹ 960 level. The trend may remain positive for copper prices,' Kedia said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Time of India
22-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India to seek lithium and copper under new trade tie from Chile to power clean energy and industrial growth, says experts
NEW DELHI: India may seek a stable supply of lithium and copper through the expanded new trade tie with Chile to boost its clean energy targets and industrial growth says experts. As India undergoes rapid industrial expansion and transitions toward cleaner energy sources, the demand for critical minerals like lithium and copper is expected to grow significantly. These minerals are essential for achieving India's clean energy targets, strengthening its manufacturing sector, and building robust infrastructure. Chile is one of the world's leading producers of lithium and copper, stands out as a strategic trade partner. This collaboration aligns with India's broader objectives of achieving energy security and expanding its electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem. "The India-Chile CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) enhances India's commodity security, export competitiveness, and access to future minerals," said Ajay Kedia , Director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai. Chile plays a dominant role in the global lithium supply chain. According to the United States Geological Survey, Chile holds the world's largest lithium reserves, estimated at 9.3 million tons, and ranks third in total lithium resources after Bolivia and Argentina. Recent studies from Chile's northern Antofagasta salt flats suggest the country's lithium resources may be 28 per cent higher than previously estimated, further boosting its importance. Live Events Copper is equally critical for India, especially in sectors such as EV manufacturing, renewable energy systems, and electrical infrastructure. As the EV market expands, copper is increasingly used in batteries, motors, wiring, and charging infrastructure. India's reliance on a steady supply of these resources is reflected in its industrial activity. Domestic manufacturers across EV, battery, energy storage, and electrical equipment sectors are scaling up production to support clean energy goals. Copper, in particular, remains a key input for wire and cable manufacturing, automotive systems, and power transmission networks. Ajay Kedia believes that securing a stable mineral supply and boosting trade across Latin America through the CEPA will enable India to strengthen its position in global supply chains and drive long-term economic growth. "It strengthens India's position in the global supply chain for energy transition, offers new markets for Indian industries, and aligns with long-term national goals like Make in India and green mobility," he added. India and Chile are preparing to launch negotiations under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Following the finalisation of the terms of reference on May 9, talks are set to begin by May 26. The agreement is expected to enhance trade cooperation, particularly in critical sectors like minerals and clean energy.
India Gazette
21-05-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
India to seek lithium and copper under new trade tie from Chile to power clean energy and industrial growth, says experts
By Daksh Grover New Delhi [India] May 21 (ANI): India may seek a stable supply of lithium and copper through the expanded new trade tie with Chile to boost its clean energy targets and industrial growth says India undergoes rapid industrial expansion and transitions toward cleaner energy sources, the demand for critical minerals like lithium and copper is expected to grow significantly. These minerals are essential for achieving India's clean energy targets, strengthening its manufacturing sector, and building robust is one of the world's leading producers of lithium and copper, stands out as a strategic trade partner. This collaboration aligns with India's broader objectives of achieving energy security and expanding its electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem.'The India-Chile CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) enhances India's commodity security, export competitiveness, and access to future minerals,' said Ajay Kedia, Director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai. Chile plays a dominant role in the global lithium supply chain. According to the United States Geological Survey, Chile holds the world's largest lithium reserves, estimated at 9.3 million tons, and ranks third in total lithium resources after Bolivia and Argentina. Recent studies from Chile's northern Antofagasta salt flats suggest the country's lithium resources may be 28 per cent higher than previously estimated, further boosting its is equally critical for India, especially in sectors such as EV manufacturing, renewable energy systems, and electrical infrastructure. As the EV market expands, copper is increasingly used in batteries, motors, wiring, and charging reliance on a steady supply of these resources is reflected in its industrial activity. Domestic manufacturers across EV, battery, energy storage, and electrical equipment sectors are scaling up production to support clean energy goals. Copper, in particular, remains a key input for wire and cable manufacturing, automotive systems, and power transmission Kedia believes that securing a stable mineral supply and boosting trade across Latin America through the CEPA will enable India to strengthen its position in global supply chains and drive long-term economic growth.'It strengthens India's position in the global supply chain for energy transition, offers new markets for Indian industries, and aligns with long-term national goals like Make in India and green mobility,' he and Chile are preparing to launch negotiations under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Following the finalisation of the terms of reference on May 9, talks are set to begin by May 26. The agreement is expected to enhance trade cooperation, particularly in critical sectors like minerals and clean energy. (ANI)
