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Economic Times
18-07-2025
- Politics
- Economic Times
West Asia imbroglio: Lessons on geo political stratagems for India
Synopsis In 2025, a regional conflict erupted in West Asia between Iran and Israel, drawing in the USA. The conflict stemmed from Iran's 'deterrence' strategy against Israel and Israel's efforts to dismantle Iran's 'axis of resistance'. Israel strategically marginalized Iranian proxies, leading to direct confrontation and strikes on Iranian nuclear assets, highlighting key lessons for India's security challenges. TIL Creatives Representative Image West Asia was at the verge of a regional conflict, with USA entering the 12 day standoff kinetic confrontation, between Iran and Israel on 22 June 2025. The animosity considered existential threat by both, has two main facets that is of interest for the strategic community. These are the 'game plan' of 'deterrence', instituted by Iran, in the changing geo strategic construct of the Middle East, to checkmate Israeli threat and Israel's systematic neutralisation of Iran's 'axis of resistance', resulting in the current offensive and decapacitation of Iran's nuclear assets. Both issues have key pointers for India's asymmetric security policy of 'Forward Defence' or 'Forward Deterrence' is a strategic initiative, that commenced in the mid 1970s, to stop external support to Iran's internal dissidents. This led to Iran reaching out to Iraqi Shiite groups, Al Sadr family in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria. Gen Soleimani of IRGC, under the patronage of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, created the 'axis of resistance' of 'proxies', in target countries. Iran concurrently built up stand-off strike capability through ballistic missiles, UAVs and offensive cyber. The 'Quds' Force of IRGC, raised in 1988, controlled these regional proxies. It led to Iran's support to the Palestine cause, initially to 'Al Fatah' and later the Hamas. The Hezbollah was established in the early 1980s, in network, got a major boost post 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' in 2003, when in Iraq, the US gave power to Iran backed political parties and militias. Iran also exploited the power vacuum created in countries, during the 2011 Arab Spring, to prop up proxy regimes. The rise of Houthis, to power in Yemen, is a prime example. And its domination of Babel-Mandeb strait, gave it the capability to interdict key global SLOCs. As relations with Israel got further strained, Iran deepened support to Hamas and the Hezbollah, to empower them to open a second front in case of a conflict with Israel. There are also instances of Iran supporting non state actors, terrorists and rebel groups, to target adversarial marginalisation of these proxies by Israel, is a lesson on strategic foresight and machinations. The Israeli Prime Minister at the nadir of his political career, exploited the opportunity that arose from the heinous attack on bordering Israeli kibbutz's by Hamas, on 07 Oct 2023. Israel adopted the 'scorched earth' policy in Gaza, using disproportionate force. Iran, in support of the Hamas, activated the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemen's Houthis and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, to launch their own attacks, on Israel. The Israeli offensive within weeks, militarily degraded the Hamas and in the two years totally marginalised thereafter focused on neutralising the Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful, reliable and effective proxy. Mid-September 2024, Israel stunned the world by executing a coordinated attack, on the pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah and its cadres. It remotely activated the concealed explosives planted inside the batteries of pagers, in a covert operation exploiting technology, decapacitating over 1500 of its cadres. Also, precision aerial strikes destroyed their large inventory of rockets and missiles, while targeted killing eliminated Hezbollah's senior leadership, including its Secretary General Hassan Nasrullah and his successor. The October 2024 ground offensive against Hezbollah, was the proverbial last nail in the impact was visible, as in December 2024 , Hezbollah was unable to support the President Assad and his Government, during the rebel offensive in Syria. It led to the fall of the Assad and ended decades old Iran – Syria relationship. Thus, Houthis in Yemen were the only remaining proxy for Iran's future geo political last and most critical step for Israel was to get Iran in a direct engagement. It achieved that by bombing of the Iranian embassy complex in Syria, in April 2024. It was escalatory and the war that for long had been fought through proxies and targeted killings had now come into the crumbling of the proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, now gave Israel the opportunity to conduct aerial strikes on Iran, with impunity. And the rest is history. In which the 12 day missile exchanges, culminated with US attack on nuclear facilities. And Mr Netanyahu, managed to secure freedom from Iran's nuclear 'Sword of Damocles'.India strategic mandarins can take pointers from this protracted engagement. Firstly, for instituting an effective 'deterrence' strategy for India, with 'out of box' options, of exploiting societal fissures, use of cyber, social networking platforms and emerging technologies for effective perception management in adversarial countries and pro-active diplomacy for global support. A shortcoming noticeable post 'Op Sindoor'. Secondly, unanimous political consensus, across party lines, on issues of national security. Thirdly, essentiality for continuity of policy, that is not hostage to changing political dispensations in need an organisation that provides continuity and maintains non-attributability of actions from the Government in power. Fifthly, availability of reliable and timely intelligence, which has been the cornerstone of Israel's meticulous plans and in stitching together multiple options, that could be unfolded with precision, at an opportune the capabilities and capacities, was built up systematically, to a planned doctrinal philosophy. India therefore needs to ensure that the 'Make in India- Defence' follows a similar trajectory, with suitable inputs and timely modulations. The author is a former Army Commander Indian Army. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of
Time of India
18-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
West Asia imbroglio: Lessons on geo political stratagems for India
West Asia was at the verge of a regional conflict, with USA entering the 12 day standoff kinetic confrontation, between Iran and Israel on 22 June 2025. The animosity considered existential threat by both, has two main facets that is of interest for the strategic community. These are the 'game plan' of 'deterrence', instituted by Iran, in the changing geo strategic construct of the Middle East, to checkmate Israeli threat and Israel's systematic neutralisation of Iran's 'axis of resistance', resulting in the current offensive and decapacitation of Iran's nuclear assets. Both issues have key pointers for India's asymmetric security challenges. Iran's policy of 'Forward Defence' or 'Forward Deterrence' is a strategic initiative, that commenced in the mid 1970s, to stop external support to Iran's internal dissidents. This led to Iran reaching out to Iraqi Shiite groups, Al Sadr family in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria. Gen Soleimani of IRGC, under the patronage of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, created the 'axis of resistance' of 'proxies', in target countries. Iran concurrently built up stand-off strike capability through ballistic missiles, UAVs and offensive cyber. The 'Quds' Force of IRGC, raised in 1988, controlled these regional proxies. It led to Iran's support to the Palestine cause, initially to 'Al Fatah' and later the Hamas. The Hezbollah was established in the early 1980s, in Lebanon. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Finance Operations Management MBA MCA Technology Digital Marketing Product Management Healthcare others Degree Project Management healthcare Data Science Management Artificial Intelligence Leadership Cybersecurity CXO Public Policy PGDM Others Data Science Data Analytics Design Thinking Skills you'll gain: Duration: 7 Months S P Jain Institute of Management and Research CERT-SPJIMR Fintech & Blockchain India Starts on undefined Get Details Skills you'll gain: Duration: 9 Months IIM Calcutta SEPO - IIMC CFO India Starts on undefined Get Details The network, got a major boost post 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' in 2003, when in Iraq, the US gave power to Iran backed political parties and militias. Iran also exploited the power vacuum created in countries, during the 2011 Arab Spring, to prop up proxy regimes. The rise of Houthis, to power in Yemen, is a prime example. And its domination of Babel-Mandeb strait, gave it the capability to interdict key global SLOCs. As relations with Israel got further strained, Iran deepened support to Hamas and the Hezbollah, to empower them to open a second front in case of a conflict with Israel. There are also instances of Iran supporting non state actors, terrorists and rebel groups, to target adversarial countries. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Villas Prices In Dubai Might Be More Affordable Than You Think Villas In Dubai | Search Ads Get Quote The marginalisation of these proxies by Israel, is a lesson on strategic foresight and machinations. The Israeli Prime Minister at the nadir of his political career, exploited the opportunity that arose from the heinous attack on bordering Israeli kibbutz's by Hamas, on 07 Oct 2023. Israel adopted the 'scorched earth' policy in Gaza, using disproportionate force. Iran, in support of the Hamas, activated the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemen's Houthis and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, to launch their own attacks, on Israel. The Israeli offensive within weeks, militarily degraded the Hamas and in the two years totally marginalised it. Israel thereafter focused on neutralising the Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful, reliable and effective proxy. Live Events Mid-September 2024, Israel stunned the world by executing a coordinated attack, on the pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah and its cadres. It remotely activated the concealed explosives planted inside the batteries of pagers, in a covert operation exploiting technology, decapacitating over 1500 of its cadres. Also, precision aerial strikes destroyed their large inventory of rockets and missiles, while targeted killing eliminated Hezbollah's senior leadership, including its Secretary General Hassan Nasrullah and his successor. The October 2024 ground offensive against Hezbollah, was the proverbial last nail in the coffin. This impact was visible, as in December 2024 , Hezbollah was unable to support the President Assad and his Government, during the rebel offensive in Syria. It led to the fall of the Assad and ended decades old Iran – Syria relationship. Thus, Houthis in Yemen were the only remaining proxy for Iran's future geo political plans. The last and most critical step for Israel was to get Iran in a direct engagement. It achieved that by bombing of the Iranian embassy complex in Syria, in April 2024. It was escalatory and the war that for long had been fought through proxies and targeted killings had now come into the open. The crumbling of the proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, now gave Israel the opportunity to conduct aerial strikes on Iran, with impunity. And the rest is history. In which the 12 day missile exchanges, culminated with US attack on nuclear facilities. And Mr Netanyahu, managed to secure freedom from Iran's nuclear 'Sword of Damocles'. India strategic mandarins can take pointers from this protracted engagement. Firstly, for instituting an effective 'deterrence' strategy for India, with 'out of box' options, of exploiting societal fissures, use of cyber, social networking platforms and emerging technologies for effective perception management in adversarial countries and pro-active diplomacy for global support. A shortcoming noticeable post 'Op Sindoor'. Secondly, unanimous political consensus, across party lines, on issues of national security. Thirdly, essentiality for continuity of policy, that is not hostage to changing political dispensations in elections. Fourthly, need an organisation that provides continuity and maintains non-attributability of actions from the Government in power. Fifthly, availability of reliable and timely intelligence, which has been the cornerstone of Israel's meticulous plans and in stitching together multiple options, that could be unfolded with precision, at an opportune time. Lastly, the capabilities and capacities, was built up systematically, to a planned doctrinal philosophy. India therefore needs to ensure that the 'Make in India- Defence' follows a similar trajectory, with suitable inputs and timely modulations. The author is a former Army Commander Indian Army.
The National
09-04-2025
- Politics
- The National
Iraq to hold parliamentary elections on November 11
Iraq' s cabinet set November 11 as the date for the next parliamentary election during a session on Wednesday, a government statement said. The elections will be the sixth parliamentary vote since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Iraq's last general election, in October 2021, was held a year early in response to one of the core demands of a nationwide, pro-reform protest movement that began in 2019 in central and southern parts of the country. But bitter rivalry among political elites, mainly among the country's majority Shiites, delayed the process of forming a government until October 2022. Shiite cleric and political leader Moqtada Al Sadr's efforts to form the government failed, despite his Sadrist bloc making a strong showing by winning 73 of the 329 seats in Parliament. His desire to form a majority government only with Sunni and Kurdish parties upset his rivals in the Co-ordination Framework, an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias and political parties that suffered major losses in the election. In June 2022, Mr Al Sadr ordered his MPs to resign from Parliament and to withdraw from the country's political process until it was purged of what he described as 'the corrupt'. There are no indications yet whether Mr Al Sadr will take part in the upcoming election.
