West Asia imbroglio: Lessons on geo political stratagems for India
Iran's policy of 'Forward Defence' or 'Forward Deterrence' is a strategic initiative, that commenced in the mid 1970s, to stop external support to Iran's internal dissidents. This led to Iran reaching out to Iraqi Shiite groups, Al Sadr family in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria. Gen Soleimani of IRGC, under the patronage of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, created the 'axis of resistance' of 'proxies', in target countries. Iran concurrently built up stand-off strike capability through ballistic missiles, UAVs and offensive cyber. The 'Quds' Force of IRGC, raised in 1988, controlled these regional proxies. It led to Iran's support to the Palestine cause, initially to 'Al Fatah' and later the Hamas. The Hezbollah was established in the early 1980s, in Lebanon.
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The network, got a major boost post 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' in 2003, when in Iraq, the US gave power to Iran backed political parties and militias. Iran also exploited the power vacuum created in countries, during the 2011 Arab Spring, to prop up proxy regimes. The rise of Houthis, to power in Yemen, is a prime example. And its domination of Babel-Mandeb strait, gave it the capability to interdict key global SLOCs. As relations with Israel got further strained, Iran deepened support to Hamas and the Hezbollah, to empower them to open a second front in case of a conflict with Israel. There are also instances of Iran supporting non state actors, terrorists and rebel groups, to target adversarial countries.
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The marginalisation of these proxies by Israel, is a lesson on strategic foresight and machinations. The Israeli Prime Minister at the nadir of his political career, exploited the opportunity that arose from the heinous attack on bordering Israeli kibbutz's by Hamas, on 07 Oct 2023. Israel adopted the 'scorched earth' policy in Gaza, using disproportionate force. Iran, in support of the Hamas, activated the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemen's Houthis and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, to launch their own attacks, on Israel. The Israeli offensive within weeks, militarily degraded the Hamas and in the two years totally marginalised it.
Israel thereafter focused on neutralising the Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful, reliable and effective proxy.
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Mid-September 2024, Israel stunned the world by executing a coordinated attack, on the pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah and its cadres. It remotely activated the concealed explosives planted inside the batteries of pagers, in a covert operation exploiting technology, decapacitating over 1500 of its cadres. Also, precision aerial strikes destroyed their large inventory of rockets and missiles, while targeted killing eliminated Hezbollah's senior leadership, including its Secretary General Hassan Nasrullah and his successor. The October 2024 ground offensive against Hezbollah, was the proverbial last nail in the coffin.
This impact was visible, as in December 2024 , Hezbollah was unable to support the President Assad and his Government, during the rebel offensive in Syria. It led to the fall of the Assad and ended decades old Iran – Syria relationship. Thus, Houthis in Yemen were the only remaining proxy for Iran's future geo political plans.
The last and most critical step for Israel was to get Iran in a direct engagement. It achieved that by bombing of the Iranian embassy complex in Syria, in April 2024. It was escalatory and the war that for long had been fought through proxies and targeted killings had now come into the open.
The crumbling of the proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, now gave Israel the opportunity to conduct aerial strikes on Iran, with impunity. And the rest is history. In which the 12 day missile exchanges, culminated with US attack on nuclear facilities. And Mr Netanyahu, managed to secure freedom from Iran's nuclear 'Sword of Damocles'.
India strategic mandarins can take pointers from this protracted engagement. Firstly, for instituting an effective 'deterrence' strategy for India, with 'out of box' options, of exploiting societal fissures, use of cyber, social networking platforms and emerging technologies for effective perception management in adversarial countries and pro-active diplomacy for global support. A shortcoming noticeable post 'Op Sindoor'. Secondly, unanimous political consensus, across party lines, on issues of national security. Thirdly, essentiality for continuity of policy, that is not hostage to changing political dispensations in elections.
Fourthly, need an organisation that provides continuity and maintains non-attributability of actions from the Government in power. Fifthly, availability of reliable and timely intelligence, which has been the cornerstone of Israel's meticulous plans and in stitching together multiple options, that could be unfolded with precision, at an opportune time.
Lastly, the capabilities and capacities, was built up systematically, to a planned doctrinal philosophy. India therefore needs to ensure that the 'Make in India- Defence' follows a similar trajectory, with suitable inputs and timely modulations.
The author is a former Army Commander Indian Army.
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