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Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
After Russia's Failure, Iran Seeks China's Military Might
The war with Israel last month decimated a senior echelon of Iran's military leadership, crippled its air defenses, and exposed the vulnerability of its air force. Within days, Israel had established aerial superiority, paving the way for US air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. But the war also tested the limits of Iran's alliance with Russia, which offered little more than diplomatic support to Tehran during the 12-day conflict. With faith in Moscow at a low point, Iran is now urgently seeking to rebuild its defenses -- and is turning to China for the advanced military hardware that Russia has failed to deliver. But as Tehran pivots toward Beijing, it faces fresh obstacles and skepticism, revealing both the limits of its options and the depth of its strategic isolation. Despite a recently signed strategic partnership agreement and years of close cooperation, Russia's support for Iran during this crisis has proven largely rhetorical. As the reformist newspaper Shargh notes, 'this alliance, at critical junctures, is based more on shifting interests than on steadfast commitments.' While Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the US strikes as 'unjustified' and offered dialogue, he made no commitment to military assistance, with the Kremlin repeatedly insisting that the partnership deal has no provisions for military aid in times of war. Ali Motahari, a former deputy speaker of Iran's parliament, captured the growing sense of frustration in a post on X. Henoted that Russia has refused to sell the S-400 missile defense system to Iran, despite Tehran supplying Moscow with drones for its war in Ukraine, while providing such systems to Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The ex-lawmaker argued that Russia's reluctance is due to concerns Iran could use the S-400 against Israeli aggression, exposing the superficiality of the so-called strategic partnership 'that Putin touts.' Iran's attempts to purchase advanced Russian military equipment -- including Sukhoi-35 (Su-35) fighter jets and Mi-28 attack helicopters -- have also stalled. According to Shargh, 'except for some trainer jets, none of the promised equipment has been delivered,' with production issues in Russia and diplomatic pressure from Persian Gulf states, Israel, and the United States cited as key reasons. This pattern of noncommitment has likely left Iranian officials and analysts openly questioning Russia's reliability as an ally. With Russia distracted and unreliable, unconfirmed reports both in Iranian and Western media claim that Iran has turned to China in hopes of acquiring advanced military hardware, particularly the Chengdu J-10C multirole fighter jet. Iran's air force is severely outdated and ill-equipped to confront modern adversaries. Its fleet consists largely of aging US and Soviet-era aircraft acquired before the 1979 revolution, many of which are kept operational through cannibalized parts and domestic improvisation. The J-10C is a 4.5-generation, single-engine fighter jet equipped with advanced avionics, AESA radar, and capable of deploying PL-15 long-range missiles. It is considered a credible, though not equal, challenger to Israel's advanced F-35I fleet. However, Chinese reluctance to supply Iran is pronounced, according to Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter and head of research of the TOChina Hub's ChinaMed Project. 'Beijing is trying to stabilize the relations with Washington to buy some time to further increase its tech and economic self-sufficiency, Ghiselli told RFE/RL. 'That's more important than rebuilding the Iranian Air Force.' Experts also agree that China's relations with Iran's regional rivals contribute to its disinclination to beef up Iran's military. 'China has acted as an economic or geoeconomic actor in the Middle East,' said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He told RFE/RL that China values its relationships with Iran's Sunni Arab neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council -- Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates -- who are critical energy suppliers and trading partners but maintain cautious relations with Tehran. Analysts widely agree that China's most effective way to support Iran is through continued oil purchases, which provide Tehran with vital revenue under sanctions. For Beijing, maintaining access to energy and avoiding regional destabilization outweigh any potential benefits from selling advanced weaponry to Iran, Ghiselli argued. The events of the past weeks have exposed the depth of Iran's strategic isolation. Both Moscow and Beijing have prioritized their own interests and relationships with Iran's adversaries over any formal alliance commitments. As Shargh concludes, Russia's unwillingness to go beyond political statements has severely damaged its credibility as an ally, while China's realpolitik ensures that any meaningful military support will remain out of reach. Farzan Sabet, a managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told RFE/RL that Tehran 'doesn't have any good options' when it comes to foreign military partners. Even if Tehran managed to purchase fighter jets from China, it would need a lot more than it can pay for to be able to maintain aerial superiority in future conflicts, at least in its own skies. 'These are very, very expensive,' Sabet said. 'With Iran being under sanctions, it's not clear to anybody who would have the money to pay for it.' By RFE/RL More Top Reads From this article on
DW
21-05-2025
- Politics
- DW
Why Iran 'cannot turn back time' on public hijab rule – DW – 05/21/2025
"The state's current policy on the issue of the hijab is not to follow strict rules," Ali Motahari, a conservative Iranian politician, told journalists last week on the fringes of the International Book Fair in Tehran. He added that the police should only intervene in the event of gross violations. "You have to know that even at the time of the Shah, before the 1979 revolution, women were arrested if they did not dress decently in public," he said. Wearing a hijab, or headscarf, remains mandatory in Iran. However, even before the nationwide protests following the death of Jina Mahsa Amini in police custody in September 2022, Motahari was one of those conservative politicians who repeatedly called for a crackdown on women who dared to deviate even slightly from the strict dress code. In 2014, he asked, "Why are women allowed to wear trousers under their coats?" He called on the authorities to take more rigorous action against the women concerned. 'A changed country' "What we have achieved in the last three years can no longer be taken away by the state," a gender researcher and journalist from Tehran told DW. She asked DW not to publish her name as the authorities regularly reprimand her for her stance, and she even receives death threats from anonymous callers. She is one of the women who not only refuse to wear a headscarf in public, but also encourages other women to decide for themselves whether they want to. "They can no longer force us to follow their rules and automatically wear a headscarf every time we leave the house," she says. She also emphasizes that Iran has changed after the death of Jina Mahsa Amini. For example, on May 12, the coffin of Shiva Aristoui, an Iranian writer and poet, was carried by women without the mandatory hijab. Traditionally, carrying the coffin has long been a matter for men in accordance with religious and social norms. However, since the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement, more and more women attend funerals without the compulsory hijab and carry the coffins of their loved ones. Yet, many women deliberately stay away from international media and avoid public attention to continue on their path without additional repression. Any exchange with international media could be considered "propaganda against the system," "cooperation with a hostile government" or could be prosecuted as following an "order from abroad." The journalists Niloofar Hamedi and Elaheh Mohammadi were first arrested, then sentenced but eventually pardoned by Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images Niloufar Hamedi, an award-winning journalist, is a recent example of the state's crackdown. Her reporting on the death of Jina Mahsa Amini in 2022 brought her international fame. Among other pieces, she published a photo of Amini's grieving parents. It quickly went viral on social media and became a symbol of the nationwide protests, which became the largest protest movement in Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Hamedi was arrested and charged with alleged "collaboration with an enemy government," "propaganda against the system" among other charges. She was sentenced to a total of 13 years in prison. However, after 17 months, she was released on bail in January 2024. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei then pardoned her and her colleague Elaheh Mohammadi in February 2025. On May 11, 2,800 days after the report that changed the country, an article under her name appeared once more in the country's major daily Persian newspaper Shargh. Niloofar Hamedi is allowed to work as a journalist in Iran again. The protests after the death of Jina Mahsa Amini in September 2022 turned into the biggest demonstration since the Iranian Revolution 1979 Image: Allison Bailey/NurPhoto/picture alliance 'The state lacks the power to stop change' Does this indicate that the state has capitulated to women? "No," Sedigheh Vasmaghi, women's rights activist and theologian, told DW. "The political system has not accepted the resistance the women have shown," she said. "The state does not have the power to stop or even reverse this change either." Vasmaghi, who joined protesters against the compulsory headscarf rule, no longer wears a headscarf in public. In April 2023, Vasmaghi wrote an open letter to Khamenei in which she criticized his decree on the hijab requirement and emphasized that the Quran does not stipulate such an obligation. In March 2024, she was arrested for "propaganda against the system" and "public appearance without a Sharia-compliant hijab." Due to her health problems, she was sent on parole. Still, she could be arrested again at any time. But she has no fear of that. "The state in Iran is facing massive domestic and foreign policy problems and is currently not in a position to deal with women across the country, especially teenagers and young women, who no longer want to wear headscarves," she told DW. "However, any measure that appears to be effective will be reviewed and attempted to be enforced," Vasmaghi continued, referring to the ongoing debate on the introduction of a controversial lawto monitor women in public in Iran. The law provides for a series of punitive measures for women who refuse to wear the required hijab in public. "The political system can no longer turn back time," Vasmaghi said. This article was originally published in German.
