Latest news with #AndrewBotterill
CTV News
6 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
OPEC looking to regain market share with oil production increases, expert says
Andrew Botterill, Energy, Resources & Industrials Partner at Deloitte Canada, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss Deloitte's energy, oil & gas price forecast.
Global News
07-07-2025
- Business
- Global News
Alberta natural gas expected to see jump in prices next year thanks to LNG exports: report
A new report from advisory firm Deloitte is forecasting a big jump in Alberta natural gas prices next year, with the country's first West Coast export facility now up and running. The Alberta benchmark AECO price is expected to average $2.20 per mmBTU in the second half of this year and then rise to an average of $3.50 per mmBTU in 2026. It averaged $1.36 per mmBTU last year. By the end of the forecast in 2032, the average AECO price is expected to hit $4 per mmBTU. Alberta producers now have an outlet for their gas to markets beyond the United States with LNG Canada shipping its first cargo of ultra-chilled gas across the Pacific to Asia from Kitimat, B.C., last week. Story continues below advertisement Deloitte partner Andrew Botterill says that will give producers the confidence they need to invest in new drilling, while consumers who use natural gas to heat their homes can expect to see their bills go up. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy 'It's really an opportunity for producers to get to get volumes into another sales point, which dramatically changes things,' he said. For many years, Albertans have enjoyed relatively cheap natural gas. 'Things do look stronger now than they have in the past, but we're also right in the middle of the summer when the natural gas pricing is at its low,' he said. 'Through the remainder of this year and into next year, our natural gas price is going to be higher and it's going to cost more to put through our furnaces.' 1:46 Poll shows Canada is most desirable oil and natural gas-supplying country Based on current levels of drilling and capital spending, Deloitte predicts Canadian producers will not fill demand from current LNG export projects operating or in the works for four two seven years, meaning Alberta pricing should remain strong for the foreseeable future. Story continues below advertisement For oil, Deloitte is predicting West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude benchmark, to average US$72 a barrel in the second half of this year, dipping to US$67.30 next year and rising to US$74.65 by 2032. Botterill said Canadian companies can manage that price range well, especially since they benefit from a strong U.S. dollar. The price discount for western Canadian heavy crude has also narrowed thanks to the startup last year of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the Vancouver area, through which meaningful volumes can be sold in Asia. 'While the price isn't as robust … Canadian companies are managing quite well, but they're being cautious on where they deploy capital and not spending too much too quickly.'
Edmonton Journal
07-07-2025
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
Silver lining: Alberta natural gas — and budget — get boost with historic LNG ocean shipment
Article content Chilled to a liquid state, a cargo of natural gas started a historic voyage on Canada Day, setting off a good chain reaction on Alberta's natural gas industry. Article content Westbound over the Pacific for China, the shipment from LNG Canada bound for global markets was good news for the Alberta economy, said Andrew Botterill, Energy, Resources & Industrials Partner at Deloitte Canada. Article content Article content While the LNG on the boat originated in BC via the Coastal Gas Link, when it comes to LNG pricing, all boats rise with the tide, Botterill told Postmedia in an embargoed interview Thursday. Article content Article content When Alberta's — and Canada's — LNG was restricted to North American markets, it was at the mercy of American demand, resulting in an unfavourable price differential between American and Canadian LNG. Article content Article content With one westbound boatload, that has changed. Article content 'The gas market is nice, just to see that extra business, that extra opportunity for Canadian gas volumes to hit the West Coast,' he said. 'The business case has proved out to be this is good for Canada and this is good for all companies. Article content 'We're now doing it for real … It shows that the business is there, it's happening.' Article content It will take time for the facility to be up and running full steam, but the rest of 2025 and 2026 are expected to bear that business case out: that natural gas can be chilled to a liquid state, put on a boat, and exported by sea. Article content Article content 'All in all, the entire natural gas industry, for Alberta and B.C., the gas market is going to see the opportunity of LNG take real shape in the next 18 months,' Botterill said. Article content Article content Between now and 2032, the Deloitte & Touche report projects a steady increase in natural gas production growth. Article content An increased demand for natural gas could result in price hikes for Alberta and British Columbia LNG — and more markets, more volumes, means a smaller differential with U.S. prices. Article content 'This is meaningful for Canada. Us being able to put natural gas in another direction, not just to the U.S., is going to narrow some of that natural gas differential,' he said.
National Observer
07-07-2025
- Business
- National Observer
Alberta natural gas is expected to see a bump next year thanks to LNG exports: Deloitte
A new report from advisory firm Deloitte is forecasting a big jump in Alberta natural gas prices next year, with the country's first West Coast export facility now up and running. The Alberta benchmark AECO price is expected to average $2.20 per mmBTU in the second half of this year and then rise to an average of $3.50 per mmBTU in 2026. It averaged $1.36 per mmBTU last year. By the end of the forecast in 2032, the average AECO price is expected to hit $4 per mmBTU. Alberta producers now have an outlet for their gas to markets beyond the United States with LNG Canada shipping its first cargo of ultra-chilled gas across the Pacific to Asia from Kitimat, BC, last week. Deloitte partner Andrew Botterill says that will give producers the confidence they need to invest in new drilling, while consumers who use natural gas to heat their homes can expect to see their bills go up. "It's really an opportunity for producers to get to get volumes into another sales point, which dramatically changes things," he said. For many years, Albertans have enjoyed relatively cheap natural gas. "Things do look stronger now than they have in the past, but we're also right in the middle of the summer when the natural gas pricing is at its low," he said. "Through the remainder of this year and into next year, our natural gas price is going to be higher and it's going to cost more to put through our furnaces." Based on current levels of drilling and capital spending, Deloitte predicts Canadian producers will not fill demand from current LNG export projects operating or in the works for four two seven years, meaning Alberta pricing should remain strong for the foreseeable future. For oil, Deloitte is predicting West Texas Intermediate, the main US crude benchmark, to average US$72 a barrel in the second half of this year, dipping to US$67.30 next year and rising to US$74.65 by 2032. Botterill said Canadian companies can manage that price range well, especially since they benefit from a strong US dollar. The price discount for western Canadian heavy crude has also narrowed thanks to the startup last year of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the Vancouver area, through which meaningful volumes can be sold in Asia. "While the price isn't as robust ... Canadian companies are managing quite well, but they're being cautious on where they deploy capital and not spending too much too quickly."
CBC
07-07-2025
- Business
- CBC
Oil prices could rebound slightly this year, Deloitte forecasts, but risks loom
After several months of volatility in the market, a new forecast is predicting slightly stronger oil prices for the rest of 2025 — but some experts warn there are many factors that could change that outlook. Deloitte Canada released its quarterly energy, oil and gas price forecast on Monday. Andrew Botterill, an energy partner with Deloitte who's based in Calgary, said the forecasts aim to help the sector better understand challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead. "Obviously, we have some conflicts across the globe that could drive some volatility in our prices. But I think what we are expecting in the back half of this year is probably something a little bit better than what we saw in the first half," said Botterill. "$70, $72 per barrel is what we're forecasting for the back of this year, with some optimism." Deloitte is also projecting higher natural gas prices through 2025 onward, now that LNG Canada is officially online, sparking optimism that "the era of extremely low Canadian gas prices compared to Henry Hub, may finally end," said the report. LNG Canada creates a competitive advantage for western Canada, Botterill said, which is good news for companies. But he warns once it comes time for Albertans to heat their homes, they could see prices rise above $3 per gigajoule in 2026, compared with the average cost of $1.71 in 2025. OPEC+ ups production While there is optimism in the industry, Botterill said there are some factors that could affect prices moving forward. According to Deloitte's forecast, OPEC+, a group of oil-exporting nations, has moved forward with reversing its voluntary production cuts. The group also announced it will produce an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July. "This marks the third consecutive month of significant increases since April 2025, suggesting that OPEC+ is likely seeking to gain greater market share from non-OPEC producers," said the report. Bloomberg also reported that the group, which is guided by Saudi Arabia, is considering producing even more in August, which is much quicker than expected. When looking at factors like U.S. tariffs and conflicts in the Middle East, Alberta Central Chief Economist Charles St-Arnaud said the risk of Saudi Arabia increasing its supply will likely have the biggest impact on oil prices for the rest of the year. "I think we could probably go back to where we were just a couple of weeks ago when we reached $55 a barrel," said St-Arnaud. Richard Masson said it's important to remember that the Alberta government's fiscal budget for this year is based on oil prices sitting at $68 a barrel. Each $1 drop in that price results in a loss of $750 million for the province, said Masson, who's an executive fellow at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy and former CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. But Masson said Albertans shouldn't be too concerned — for now. "Alberta is in good shape to weather a storm. But … with volatility in prices and a bit lower prices, it means less activity, less oil drilling, gas drilling, less oilsands projects, those types of things that reduce economic activity," said Masson, who predicts oil prices will remain relatively weak. "If it stays that way for a period of time, the Alberta government is going to have to think about ways to respond by squaring its fiscal house a little bit better than it is." He said the province could do that by cutting public services or finding other ways to increase revenue. On the bright side, St-Arnaud said the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion has put Alberta in a stronger position. He credits Trans Mountain's expansion for narrowing the price differential between the Canadian price of oil — known as Western Canada Select — and the U.S. benchmark price, West Texas Intermediate. This could help offset some of the weaker prices, he said. Cautious optimism Despite the volatility and uncertainty ahead, Botterill said there's a newfound confidence in the sector. "Our energy companies are feeling more optimistic than they have in the last decade, but they also recognize they're cautiously optimistic," said Botterill. He said many see this time as an opportunity to send a message to the rest of the country — and the world — to invest in Canada and branch out so we aren't relying on the U.S. as a sole customer.
