Silver lining: Alberta natural gas — and budget — get boost with historic LNG ocean shipment
Chilled to a liquid state, a cargo of natural gas started a historic voyage on Canada Day, setting off a good chain reaction on Alberta's natural gas industry.
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Westbound over the Pacific for China, the shipment from LNG Canada bound for global markets was good news for the Alberta economy, said Andrew Botterill, Energy, Resources & Industrials Partner at Deloitte Canada.
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While the LNG on the boat originated in BC via the Coastal Gas Link, when it comes to LNG pricing, all boats rise with the tide, Botterill told Postmedia in an embargoed interview Thursday.
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When Alberta's — and Canada's — LNG was restricted to North American markets, it was at the mercy of American demand, resulting in an unfavourable price differential between American and Canadian LNG.
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With one westbound boatload, that has changed.
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'The gas market is nice, just to see that extra business, that extra opportunity for Canadian gas volumes to hit the West Coast,' he said.
'The business case has proved out to be this is good for Canada and this is good for all companies.
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'We're now doing it for real … It shows that the business is there, it's happening.'
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It will take time for the facility to be up and running full steam, but the rest of 2025 and 2026 are expected to bear that business case out: that natural gas can be chilled to a liquid state, put on a boat, and exported by sea.
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'All in all, the entire natural gas industry, for Alberta and B.C., the gas market is going to see the opportunity of LNG take real shape in the next 18 months,' Botterill said.
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Between now and 2032, the Deloitte & Touche report projects a steady increase in natural gas production growth.
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An increased demand for natural gas could result in price hikes for Alberta and British Columbia LNG — and more markets, more volumes, means a smaller differential with U.S. prices.
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'This is meaningful for Canada. Us being able to put natural gas in another direction, not just to the U.S., is going to narrow some of that natural gas differential,' he said.
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