Latest news with #Antweiler
Vancouver Sun
03-08-2025
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
U.S. trade frameworks create 'shifting landscape' as B.C. looks to cultivate LNG markets
At the same time Premier David Eby was touting B.C.'s potential to export liquefied natural gas to Asia, U.S. President Donald Trump was unveiling his county's trade framework agreement with South Korea, which included a commitment to purchase US$100 billion of American LNG. Tying energy to easing up on tariff threats has become a common theme in Trump's attempt to reorder the U.S. trading landscape, either with purchase commitments or contributions to American energy infrastructure, an element in a framework reached with Japan. Such agreements create a 'shifting landscape' for the LNG market that Canada will have to navigate with partners apparently willing to pay premiums for American energy in exchange for their 'strategic partnership' with the U.S., said University of B.C. trade economist Werner Antweiler. Stay on top of the latest real estate news and home design trends. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Westcoast Homes will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Eby's Asia trade mission, mere weeks before the U.S. deals were announced, sought to cultivate B.C.'s trade relationship with both countries, and he left sounding assured about the province's potential. Eby spoke about meetings B.C. representatives had with LNG Canada's key partners: the Korean gas utility KOGAS, Mitsubishi in Japan and Malaysia's Petronas, where executives 'underlined how important it was to them that this project was able to be reliable.' However, Antweiler, chair in international trade policy at UBC's Sauder School of Business, noted that the U.S. is also willing to 'simply use their influence to bully trade partners into beneficial trade deals on energy. 'Some have called it a protection racket,' Antweiler said. 'Korea buys U.S. energy at a premium or preferentially, and in turn U.S. provides military protection, rather than for the U.S.'s own geostrategic benefit.' LNG's buyers — major utility firms — purchase fuel on long-term contracts and Antweiler said it is likely the South Korea deal will result in a 'reshuffling market share,' with new U.S. imports replacing its expiring contracts with Qatari LNG suppliers. 'Their overall demand for LNG is not increasing much and is down from a peak in 2021,' Antweiler said. In rough estimate, he estimated it could increase the U.S. share of South Korea's market to about one third from five per cent now. In the case of Japan, the notice from Trump's White House dated July 23, said the sides are 'exploring a new offtake agreement for Alaskan LNG,' with a proposal that is in its early stages, but which is vying for the same market share as B.C. 'Japan's commitment to Alaskan LNG may be looked at through the perspective of energy security too,' Antweiler said. Energy Minister Adrian Dix argued that the LNG projects in the works 'have real advantages over other projects, say the Alaska project, and everything else.' 'Obviously we only control what we control, the provincial and the federal government,' Dix said. However, he added that the provincial and federal governments are 'working closely' with LNG Canada related to the company's yet-to-be approved Phase 2. LNG Canada, a consortium of five partners including Shell, Malaysian state-owned Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi Corp. and KOGAS, is contemplating a $30-billion addition to its Kitimat plant that would nearly double its capacity to 26 million tonnes of LNG per year from 14 million tonnes per year now. A spokesperson for LNG Canada said the company itself isn't involved in sales: its joint-venture partners determine where the product is delivered and sold. Dix, however, said 'we feel that our (LNG Canada Phase 2) is a really outstanding project and we're optimistic about it. But at the same time, it's not entirely our decision. It is a reason why you want to settle all the issues so that the sooner they move forward, the better it is for B.C. and for everybody.' Dix added that before now, B.C. didn't have the option of offshore exports for natural gas, the province's biggest export commodity, worth $16 billion in trade in 2024. And the U.S. trade deals underline the importance for B.C. to diversify. 'If you ask me, do I worry? I worry every day about everything,' Dix said. 'Because there's a lot at stake for B.C. and we've got to continue to meet our economic goals, we've got to continue to create more wealth and energy sovereignty.' Antweiler said Canada might need to turn to 'countries that are not constrained by trade deals with the United States.' 'It's all a matter of reshuffling trade directions, but in the end the LNG market is global,' he added. 'World supply and world demand must be clear, no matter what the U.S. does.' depenner@
Vancouver Sun
02-05-2025
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
B.C. and U.S. trade experts track signs of slow-motion trade changes due to tariffs
Signs of how badly U.S. President Donald Trump's punitive tariffs on China will hit international trade are starting to show up in benchmark shipping rates from Shanghai in China. Article content Article content The shipping container price index, or the Drewry index, tracks the rates being recorded in future contracts to carry cargo, and are 'an early indication of what we can expect,' said trade economist Werner Antweiler. Article content 'When we're going to see (trade) volumes dropping, we should see the prices go down significantly,' said Antweiler, chair for the business economics division at the University of B.C.'s Sauder School of Business. 'And that's precisely what we see since the beginning of the year.' Article content Article content The Drewry index price for Shanghai to Los Angeles as of April 25 was US$2,617 per container, down 23 per cent since the start of the year. Article content How much this will spill over on Canada's West Coast ports remains to be seen. The Port of Vancouver hasn't observed 'significant changes in ship calls' yet, but Antweiler said the picture is clearer for the U.S. Article content 'This, to me, indicates that this (trade) volume is in jeopardy,' Antweiler said. 'I think that's, in part, expectations that maybe we are looking at a recession in the United States.' Article content The looming problem has been masked by a surge of imports into the U.S. over the first three months of 2025 as companies ramped up shipments to beat the punitive 145 per cent tariffs on a lot of Chines goods, which didn't take effect until April 9, Antweiler said. Article content Article content 'We also have seen a lot of stockpiling, so people anticipating that things would get worse,' Antweiler said. Article content Article content At the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, container terminals experienced a 27 per cent increase in 'full imports' in the first quarter of 2025 and 'we're seeing strong volumes today,' said Jeff Bellerud, chief operating officer for the Northwest Seaport Alliance, the partnership that oversees the two facilities. Article content Tariff threats weigh on prospects for a dip in trade, Bellerud said, but contrary to recent social media posts that declare the Port of Seattle to be empty of international vessels and 'effectively dead,' the Seaport Alliance's schedule shows 32 ships calling on its terminals over the next two weeks. Article content 'We have two very active terminals in Seattle, we have three active international terminals in Tacoma as well as domestic operations in both harbours,' Bellerud said. 'We do not have empty ports in either harbour.' Article content At the moment, one of Seattle-Tacoma's bigger problems is congestion at the Deltaport terminal in the Port of Vancouver, Bellerud said. One shipping line has switched one of its routes from twice a week to once per week because of that Vancouver delay, leaving 'blank sailings' on the Seattle and Tacoma calendar.
CBC
19-03-2025
- Business
- CBC
End of consumer carbon tax means cheaper gas but leaves $1.5B hole in B.C. budget: business prof
Social Sharing British Columbia's budget shows that the impending end of the province's consumer carbon tax will leave a roughly $1.5-billion hole in its revenue streams, with one expert saying "there will be both winners and losers" from the change. The budget released earlier this month shows the province was forecasting revenue of just over $2.5 billion from the tax in the 2024-25 fiscal year, while the estimated cost of the climate action tax credit was $995 million. Werner Antweiler, associate professor at the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia, said that leaves about $1.5 billion in revenue the province will need to make up, which could include cutting spending or raising taxes elsewhere. Antweiler said the end of the consumer carbon tax will bring relief for drivers at the gas station — as much as about 17 cents per litre. However, he said the climate action tax credit targets low-income households, and those who have seen a significant benefit may lose out. WATCH | How will the end of the consumer carbon tax impact individuals? What does the cancellation of the carbon tax mean for your wallet? 2 days ago Duration 1:53 British Columbians will soon have to pay less when they fill up their gas tanks. The province and the federal government are cancelling the consumer carbon tax, effective April 1. But with the disappearance of the associated tax credit, will the cancellation put money back into British Columbian's pockets? People in lower-income households tend to drive less, especially in urban areas with transit systems, while wealthier people tend to drive more, Antweiler noted. That means some who had been receiving the climate action tax credit won't see equal savings at the pump once the carbon tax is scrapped, he said. It's also not clear how organizations that received money from the tax — including TransLink and B.C. Transit — will make up for the shortfalls. B.C. looking to make up shortfall The B.C. carbon price has been in place since 2008, when the province became the first jurisdiction in North America to impose such a levy. The first phase of the system was designed to be revenue neutral, returning the costs in the form of corporate and personal tax cuts, Antweiler said. As the price of carbon rose, he said the B.C. government took a "double dividend" approach by using some of the revenue to fund climate action initiatives while returning some of it to consumers with a climate action tax credit. The province now faces a "significant shortfall," he said. WATCH | Climate solutions minister Adrian Dix says politics has undermined carbon tax's value: B.C. will do away with provincial consumer carbon tax, energy minister says 34 minutes ago Duration 11:04 Energy and Climate Solutions Minister Adrian Dix said his government will follow through on a pledge to eliminate B.C.'s own consumer carbon tax in response to U.S. tariffs, among other measures. Premier David Eby has said work was underway in the Finance Ministry to make sure B.C. is "able to accommodate this commitment within the budget." He made the comment when announcing on Friday that his government would follow through on its promise to repeal the consumer carbon tax after Prime Minister Mark Carney moved to eliminate the federal version of the levy. Energy Minister Adrian Dix was also asked how the province plans to replace the lost revenue at an unrelated news conference on Monday. He said legislation would be introduced before the end of the fiscal year on March 31, and the finance minister would provide further details. Dix said the tax had been effective but that it had been politicized beyond the point of usefulness. "The debate about climate change has become a debate about the carbon tax," he said in an interview with CBC's The Early Edition. "[It's] undermined the overall effort to address climate change." Eby said cost-of-living pressures and the pending removal of federal carbon pricing for consumers showed there was no longer support for the levy. Still, he said B.C. would ensure "big polluters continue to pay" for their emissions as the province retains its carbon pricing system for large industrial emitters. "Not because we want them to have to be taxed, but to encourage them instead to adopt the technologies that reduce emissions," the premier said. WATCH | How will Canada tackle emissions as the consumer carbon tax is lifted?: What's next for climate action with consumer carbon tax ending? 3 days ago Duration 2:31 The Opposition B.C. Conservatives have previously voiced concern that Eby's government would scrap the consumer carbon price, then boost charges on businesses, which would still affect consumers in the end. The B.C. Greens issued a statement last week saying the decision to end the tax and associated rebate "leaves many questions unanswered," including how the government will make up the revenue. The Greens have long called for adjustments to carbon pricing "to make it more fair, so that big industrial polluters pay the same per tonne of carbon as everyday British Columbians. Now is the time to fix that imbalance, not abandon climate action altogether," the statement from Interim Green Leader Jeremy Valeriote said.
