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The Citizen
23-06-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
Iran strike: Another fuel crisis looming?
Sharp curbs on exports reminiscent of 1973 may follow. Participants shout slogans during an anti-war demonstration in Boston, Massachusetts, on 22 June 2025, protesting US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Picture: Joseph Prezioso / AFP Will the history of just over 50 years ago repeat itself in the form of another Middle East oil boycott or shortage, following the US intervention in the war between Israel and Iran? That's the question consumers – and especially motorists – as well as experts are pondering in the wake of the weekend air strikes by American bombers of Iran's nuclear facilities. In 1973, the Arab-Israeli war saw the Arab-dominated Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries putting in place sharp curbs on exports. This not only forced a massive rise in fuel prices, but saw many countries in the West hit by sudden fuel shortages. Drastic steps taken in SA during fuel shortage In South Africa, the government took drastic steps, including lowering the national speed limit from 120km/h to 80km/h and banning fuel sales after hours and over weekends. The trauma of that fuel shortage led directly to the then National Party government establishing a Strategic Fuel Reserve for the country. ALSO READ: Did the US strikes succeed, and how will Iran respond? Economist Dawie Roodt said SA can expect some more clarity on what exactly to expect in the days to come. 'We will have to wait and see,' he said, adding it might affect petrol prices and inflation rate and weaken the rand. 'This could be quite a thing for South Africa. It just depends on how long it goes on and how serious it is,' he said. Senior political lecturer at North-West University Dr Benjamin Rapanyane said conflicts like this one have a way of disrupting international peace and the flow of trade. 'The worst-case scenario would be the disruptions of shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. This may have a devastating impact on Africa in general and South Africa in particular,' he said. ALSO READ: US joins Israel-Iran conflict with overnight bombing campaign Political analyst Piet Croucamp said it could mean nothing or something. 'Nothing in the sense of let's stay out of it, which is hardly possible given the court case SA has against Israel,' he said. 'There's a universal condemnation of Israel for what they have been doing in Gaza and also the attack on Iran, which is against the United Nations resolutions.' Croucamp said it might be hard for SA to stay out of it. 'So many people around the world are concerned about the consequences of what is being done to Iran, but we are also concerned about Gaza,' he said. 'We dare not shut up. We have to say something. Not from a moral high ground because we cannot afford that, too, but it doesn't mean that we don't get to say something.' ALSO READ: What Israel–Iran conflict means for South African economy Political analyst Roland Henwood said there were no immediate implications. 'Indirectly, it will depend on how the situation develops. Politically, the reaction from SA, Brics and other international organisations and governments will be important to follow,' he said. 'If SA reacts very strongly against America and in favour of Iran, it may have negative political consequences. Other outcomes will include the effects of increased oil prices.' Henwood said this may have short-term or long-term implications for the country. 'So far, the reactions from the rest of the world have been rather muted. We will have to see how this situation develops,' he added.
Mint
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Mint
The Israel-Iran war is now a brutal test of staying power
IN TEL AVIV and Tehran rescue crews are looking for survivors in piles of rubble. The missile and air war that Israel and Iran have spent decades planning for has come, and it is spectacular and terrifying. Israeli officials say they need at least two weeks to degrade Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities. That means the struggle ahead is a test of staying power for both countries. Yet even then Israel may need America to deliver a knockout blow to Iran's deeply buried nuclear sites. For Israel, the coming days are all about momentum: if it maintains an aura of success it may be able to draw in President Donald Trump. But if the pace of damage to nuclear sites slows and casualties spiral, he may push to end the war before Israel has achieved its aims. A hasty ceasefire could leave Iran with a huge incentive to rush to restore its nuclear programme. Israel has launched hundreds of air strikes since the early hours of June 13th. Iran has responded with salvoes of ballistic missiles and drones, although only a handful have penetrated Israel's defence systems. Israel's official objective is 'removing an existential threat" from Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic missiles. It has prioritised striking Iranian headquarters, the homes of generals and missile-launchers, and achieving air dominance over Iran. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, has said the 'road to Tehran has been opened". Yet crucially the damage done to Iran's nuclear sites so far is limited. Three days into the war, only two main sites have been hit, in Natanz and Isfahan, along with some minor ones. Israeli analysts assess the IDF has at most hit a third of the nuclear programme, which would set it back by months, not years. Israel has yet to attack underground nuclear facilities, including the large uranium-enrichment plant in Fordow (though there have been Israeli strikes above ground at Fordow). Israeli officials say this will take place soon. But Israel may lack sufficiently powerful 'bunker-buster" bombs to totally destroy the subterranean enrichment plants. Another 10-20 days of bombardment will test the resilience of both societies. They have obvious things in common: a tradition of learning and science and being non-Arab nations in an often inhospitable Arab-dominated region. They were allies until Iran's Islamic revolution in 1979. Less well known is that their military strategies both reflect missile wars with Iraq. In the Iran-Iraq conflict of the 1980s the 'War of the Cities" saw Iraq launch Soviet Scuds at Tehran and other cities, eventually forcing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran's then leader, to 'drink from the poisoned chalice" and sign a ceasefire agreement in 1988. Later, during the Gulf war in 1991 Iraq's leader, Saddam Hussein, ordered Scuds to be fired at Israel. Iran's large arsenal reflects this legacy: its home-grown industry was jump-started by Libya and North Korea and can build thousands of missiles each year. Iran also launched a nuclear programme, with uranium-enrichment plants built deep underground in bunkers in the 2000s. Israel, meanwhile, invested in its own missile-defence systems and acquired from America squadrons of fighters which were modified with additional fuel-tanks and electronic-warfare systems, enabling them to carry out long-range strikes. Israel required all new homes to have at least one room capable of serving also as a reinforced bomb-shelter. These respective arsenals are now being unleashed by each side with devastating consequences. Israel's staying power is partly a question of defending the homeland: in the first 48 hours of the war Iran launched around 300 missiles and 150 drones towards Israel. Most were intercepted by Israel, with help from American forces in the region. The handful that got through destroyed dozens of buildings, killing at least 14 people, and damaged Israel's main military headquarters, in Tel Aviv, and an oil refinery in Haifa, in the north. The physical damage is less bad than expected. The financial bill is huge: Israel's wars since October 2023 have cost around $85bn, but this was before the latest stage with Iran. An economist advising the government puts the direct costs of jet-fuel and munitions for the war against Iran at around $300m a day: 'This government is prepared to pay whatever price for the war in Iran, including depleting the reserves and putting Israel in debt for generations to come." Much now depends on Israel's capability to destroy Iranian missile-launchers before Israel's stockpiles of interceptor missiles are depleted. Iran, meanwhile, had 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel when the war began, according to Israeli intelligence. Many have now either been fired or destroyed by Israel, but the Iranians will almost certainly retain enough, stored underground, to keep landing blows on Israel each night. It is still possible Iran achieves a spectacular hit on Israel that either kills many civilians or destroys a strategic site. Yet the rate of attrition inside Iran will be worse, with the gradual destruction of most of its missile and nuclear infrastructure looming. It entered the war at a strategic disadvantage. Its proxy, Hizbullah, was crippled by Israeli strikes last September. Iran faces an economic crisis, making its leadership vulnerable to internal unrest. Israel has also bombed two civilian fuel plants, indicating it could push that wobbly economy over the brink. At a minimum Israel's leaders believe this pressure may force Iran's leaders to consider a deal with Mr Trump, in which it would be forced to dismantle what remains of its nuclear and missile programmes. To raise the temperature Israel is playing up the prospect of internal unrest in Iran that could endanger Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and his inner circle and even the entire regime. While Israeli officials say regime change is not an objective, on June 13th Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, addressed the Iranian people, saying 'this is your opportunity to stand up" to a system 'which has oppressed you for almost 50 years". But these Israeli hopes for capitulation or regime change may not be realistic. 'The regime's survival is the utmost concern of the supreme leader," says Raz Zimmt, of Israel's National Institute for Strategic Studies. 'But at the same time, he sees Iran's nuclear capability, especially uranium enrichment, as a cornerstone of that survival. Having to choose between them is like choosing between two chalices of poison." Without capitulation or regime change in Iran, Israel's war makes sense only if it can set back the nuclear programme by years. 'Iran can't beat Israel, but Israel probably doesn't have the capabilities to entirely destroy Iran's nuclear programme either," says Amos Yadlin, former chief of Israel's military intelligence. Whether America, which does have the necessary bunker-busting bombs, will join the fight, is unclear. Speaking on June 15th Mr Trump sat on the fence: 'We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved." Israel's war is going better than it expected. It could yet get American military help. But if it does not it will need another way to end the war it has started. As Mr Yadlin puts it, alongside the military campaign 'we also need a diplomatic exit-strategy, and Netanyahu hasn't been adept at devising one of those."
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Israel to close six more schools run by UNRWA in East Jerusalem
Israel plans to close a further six schools run by the Palestine refugee agency UNRWA in the Arab-dominated eastern part of Jerusalem. Police officers and employees of the Jerusalem city council had forcibly entered the schools, UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini wrote on Tuesday on the platform X. They had ordered closures within 30 days, he added. Israeli police did not initially comment on the incident. "Some 800 boys & girls are directly impacted by these closure orders and are likely to miss finishing their school year," UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini wrote. Israel accuses the UN Palestinian relief agency of having employees involved in the militant activities of the Islamist Hamas group. The Israeli parliament, the Knesset, responded by imposing a ban on work on Israeli territory, which came into force at the end of January. Another law prohibits Israeli authorities from having any contact with UNRWA. According to media reports, an Israeli hostage who had been released stated that she had been held in a UNRWA facility in the Gaza Strip. Israel had previously ordered the closure of several UNRWA schools in East Jerusalem. The Jerusalem city council said that it would take care of the affected students after the UNRWA work ban went into effect.
Yahoo
11-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
New raid on Palestinian bookshop in Jerusalem criticized
A Palestinian bookshop in the Arab-dominated eastern part of Jerusalem has been raided by police again. The owner, Imad Muna, has been arrested, the Palestinian news agency WAFA reported on Tuesday. In February, Muna said his sons Ahmed and Mahmoud were temporarily detained in the bookshop. Citing the family, several Israeli media outlets reported that the police did not present a court-issued search warrant during their latest raid on the Educational Bookshop. According to eyewitnesses and the Palestinian media, the police confiscated dozens of books. As in February, there was criticism of the latest incident from Germany. "What are the legal grounds for this new raid? And what purpose does it serve to keep detaining Palestinian booksellers who are the embodiment of peaceful dialogue?" the German ambassador to Israel, Steffen Seibert, wrote on the X platform. The head of the German representative office in Ramallah, Oliver Owcza, also expressed concern about "another police raid" in the bookstore. This had also led to "the confiscation of international literature." After the search in February, a police spokesperson said that the booksellers were suspected of "selling books with inflammatory content and supporting terrorism." According to Israeli media reports, the two booksellers were released after two days. The bookshop specializes in Palestinian culture and history, as well as the Palestinian perspective on the conflict with Israel.
Yahoo
18-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
UNRWA: Israel closes three schools, training centre in East Jerusalem
Israel has ordered the closure of three schools and a training centre run by the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) in the Arab-dominated eastern part of Jerusalem, according to the agency. "Children and young people in East Jerusalem denied of their right to education in UNRWA schools," UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini wrote on X on Tuesday. The Israeli police referred dpa to the Jerusalem city administration, which did not comment. Israel has accused UNRWA workers of being involved in terrorist activities organized by Gaza-based Islamist militants Hamas, including the unprecedented terrorist attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Lazzarini said as well as three schools with 250 children being told to close, Israeli security forces and Jerusalem city officials forcefully entered the UNRWA Kalandia Training Centre and ordered its immediate evacuation. "At least 350 students and 30 staff were present and impacted. Tear gas and sound bombs were fired," he added. "This is a violation of the basic right to education as well as of United Nations privileges and immunities. Children's access to education must be preserved and United Nations facilities must be protected and respected at all times wherever they are." Israel's parliament imposed a ban on UNRWA working on Israeli territory, which came into force at the end of January. Another law prohibits Israeli authorities from having any contact with UNRWA. The Jewish state sees East Jerusalem as part of its "eternal and indivisible capital" while the Palestinians maintain their claim to East Jerusalem as the capital of a future independent state. The Jerusalem city council had announced that it would take care of affected students once the UNRWA ban began.
