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First Post
29-07-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Donald Trump's new '10 or 12 days' deadline to end Ukraine war. Is Russia bothered?
US President Donald Trump has for years flattered Russia's Vladimir Putin, calling him 'extremely smart' and a great leader. However, Trump is taking a harder line on Russia these days. In July, Trump slammed Putin, saying he throws 'a lot of bullshit at us' and gave Russia 50 days to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine. Now, Trump has cut that deadline down to '10 or 12' days. But does the Kremlin care? read more US President Donald Trump seems to be growing increasingly frustrated with Russia. Reuters/File Photo US President Donald Trump is taking a harder line on Russia these days. Trump has for years flattered Russia's Vladimir Putin, calling him 'extremely smart' and a great leader. His remarks date back to before he even became president or ran for office. However, Trump earlier in July suddenly slammed Putin, saying he throws 'a lot of bullshit at us.' Now, Trump has set a new deadline for Russia to come to peace terms with Ukraine. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD But what happened? Why did Trump set this new deadline? What does it mean for Russia? What happened? Trump made the announcement at a press conference with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Trump said he was giving Putin '10 or 12 days" before he imposes secondary tariffs on Russia. 'Every time I think it's going to end, he kills people,' Trump said. 'I'm not so interested in talking anymore….we'll see what happens.' Trump said he doesn't see 'any progress being made.' 'I'm disappointed in President Putin,' Trump added. 'Russia and Ukraine — I would have said five times we had a deal.' 'I spoke to President Putin a lot. Got along with him very well,' he said. 'Then President Putin launches rockets into a city like Kyiv and kills a lot of people — in a nursing home, or wherever — and there are bodies lying all over the streets.' Trump even hinted he may announce sanctions to wait, saying there was 'no reason to wait'. Trump said he would formally announce the new deadline 'tonight or tomorrow'. 'But there's no reason to wait. If you know what the answer is going to be, why wait?' Trump asked. Trump has slowly been taking a different tack on Putin these past few months. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In April, Trump took to Truth Social to claim that he is 'not happy' with Putin. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre in Kuala Lumpur. Reuters 'Things will happen' if the attacks continue, he added. 'Vladimir, stop!' Trump in July rebuked Putin regarding the war with Ukraine a week after United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Trump then announced that he would send weapons to Ukraine via Nato and gave Russia a 50-day deadline to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. He said Russia refused to do so, he would impose tariffs of 100 per cent on Moscow. This gives Russia till 9 August to reach a ceasefire deal with Ukraine rather than September. What does this mean for Russia? It means Trump's frustration with Russia is growing. Trump, remember, had come to power vowing to end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours. However, the threat of sanctions alone is unlikely to deter the Kremlin. Russia, after all, has already faced the brunt of sanctions from the West after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Russia remains hell-bent on conquering Ukraine and taking over vast amounts of its territory. Trump threatening Russia's exports is seen as laughable inside the Kremlin. Russia's trade with the US is valued at just a few billion dollars. 'Fifty days! It used to be 24 hours; it used to be 100 days. We've been through all of this,' Lavrov said earlier this month. 'Russia's actual response to Trump's ultimatum will be the same as it has been for the last 500 years to all ultimatums,' Sergey Markov, a prominent Russian political analyst, wrote on Telegram. 'Go away! Go to hell,' he added. However, it also remains to be seen if Trump will actually follow through with the deadline. Trump is famous for announcing a deadline of 'two weeks' – particularly on tariffs and them pushing them back when no deal is made. Trump in April, speaking of military assistance to Ukraine, added, 'You can ask that question in two weeks, and we'll see, but I think we're getting very close.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD At the end of April, asked if he trusts Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump says: 'We'll let you know in about two weeks.' In May, asked if Putin is 'tapping him along,' Trump responded, 'I'll let you know in a week. I'll let you know in a few days.' Donald Trump threatening Russia's exports is seen as laughable inside the Kremlin. Reuters Again in May, Trump said he would decide in two weeks if Ukraine is serious about ending the war: 'I'd rather tell you in about two weeks from now because I can't say yes or no.' 'I'll let you know in about two weeks, within two weeks,' Trump said at the end of May about Russia ending the war 'We're going to find out whether or not [Putin is] tapping us along or not. And if he is, we'll respond a little bit differently.' Earlier in July, Trump said he would impose 'severe tariffs' without a deal in 50 days. 'Tariffs at about 100%, you'd call them secondary tariffs. You know what that means.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD So often has Trump pulled this move, that some came up with the acronym Trump always chickens out (Taco) to describe it, which has invariably infuriated the US president. Ironically, the fallout of Trump's potentially targeting Russia's oil exports would hurt China and India – the two biggest buyers of crude oil from Moscow. India in particular has saved billions of dollars by buying cheap crude oil from Russia over the past year. Russia in 2024 comprised around a third of India's total crude imports and nearly a fifth of China's oil imports. With inputs from agencies

Bangkok Post
14-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Is Asean now a new 'balancing wheel'?
Last week's Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting reflects its continued relevance in an increasingly unstable world. Amid US unilateralism and US President Donald Trump's tariff nationalism, Asean has reasserted itself as a balancing wheel -- a stabilising force on which its dialogue partners can still depend. The Asean chair has done a good job in further strengthening its centrality and augmenting its convening power. Friends and foes from the dialogue partner circle intermingled in camaraderie without fear, as Asean offers a neutral platform. As a trusted partner, Asean has remained level-headed and pragmatic, engaging all major powers, big and small, at bilateral, regional, and global levels. The 58th Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur was held against the backdrop of one of the most polarised periods in global politics. A new conflict in the Middle East has further stoked the potential for nuclear escalation. However, a more immediate and real war is taking place globally through tariffs, sanctions and trade barriers. Washington's to-and-fro tariff highs have become one of the most destabilising factors in the international trading system. Asean is ready to manage this growing, difficult economic security. With Aug 1 set for new levies, Asean export-oriented economies are bracing for impact. The US remains one of the bloc's most important markets, particularly for export-heavy economies like Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. Ironically, the latest tariff controversy temporarily eclipsed Myanmar's ongoing crisis on the Asean agenda. With all eyes on Washington's trade offensive, Myanmar found its opposition to Timor-Leste's Asean membership quietly brushed aside. Yet Myanmar itself was not spared as the junta is among the countries facing a 40% tariff on selected exports to the US. Under the current chair, Asean remains focused on Myanmar. The bloc will dispatch its ministerial representatives, comprising Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, to Nay Pyi Taw to enforce the Asean Five-Point Consensus (5PC) and assess the humanitarian situation. Here are five key pivotal takeaways. First, Asean has once again become a magnet for major powers. The European Union (EU) wanted to upgrade its half-century-old ties with Asean to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) by 2027 -- less than two years away. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and European Commission Vice President, Kaja Kallas, minced no words at the Asean Post-Ministerial Conference, clearly stating that Asean-EU ties must be more strategic. Brussels also has the ambition to join the East Asia Summit, the region's premier leader-level security dialogue. Ms Kallas pointed out Asean's growing strategic relevance, highlighting Southeast Asia's role in global supply chains. She noted, for example, that batteries powering European electric vehicles often rely on components sourced from Indonesia, while Thailand remains the world's top producer of natural rubber. The EU sees Asean as a vital economic partner, and in fact, a competitor in the future. For the time being, Asean is insisting that a long-delayed free trade agreement must be concluded before any CSP upgrade can proceed. Truth be told, past frictions over palm oil, human rights, democracy, and environmental policy have made Asean cautious. That said, as the first step, the EU must show more respect for the bloc's core principles of non-interference and consensus. Second, China scored major gains in Kuala Lumpur. The long-delayed upgrade of the Asean-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA 3.0) has finally been wrapped up and will be signed in October. Talks had previously stalled over investment issues, but the breakthrough signals Asean's desire for broader market access to China's vast consumer base. More significantly, China expressed its intention to accede to the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Protocol without any preconditions -- a long-standing goal for the bloc. Beijing had first shown interest in 2000 but was held back by Asean's desire to have all five recognised nuclear powers sign simultaneously. Two decades later, that dream was dashed with no sign of movement from the others, causing Asean to reconsider its approach at its 2023 meetings in Jakarta. Now, Asean is ready for any nuclear power willing to sign up to the SEANWFZ. After the recent 12-day war between Iran and Israel, which raised fears of nuclear escalation, China's willingness to sign without any precondition is welcome news for Asean. Third, Asean has formally acknowledged that economics and politics are now inseparable. With Mr Trump's weaponisation of trade policies fresh in their minds, Asean foreign ministers agreed that dovetailing of the bloc's economic and foreign policy coordination is urgently needed. The leaders agreed to the Malaysian chair's proposal that, ahead of the 47th Asean Summit in October, economic and foreign ministers should jointly prepare a strategic assessment for their leaders. As the global environment grows more volatile, Asean recognises that its ability to respond must also become more integrated and forward-looking. Fourth, transnational crime has emerged as a key priority in Asean and its dialogue partners. Thailand raised the issue during the Foreign Ministers' Meeting, citing rising threats from call centre scams, human trafficking, and illegal gambling -- many of which operate across borders and exploit jurisdictional loopholes. The peoples of Asean and dialogue partners are among the victims. In an unexpected move, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed these concerns raised by Thailand during the AMM at the Post-Ministerial Conference and proposed deeper bilateral and regional cooperation on the transnational crime issue. His remarks caught several Asean delegates by surprise, suggesting a possible new chapter in Asean-US collaboration. At the upcoming Asean-US summit, both plan to sign the Joint Leaders' Vision Statement to Promote a Stronger, Safer and More Prosperous Asean and US relations. Finally, Asean's international profile sweeps upwards. Malaysia has nominated Turkey as the next dialogue partner. It is a tall order, but not impossible. This proposal has yet to achieve consensus among Asean members, but it marks a significant shift. The Asean chair has intensified ties with the Middle East region, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council. After all, the United Kingdom was admitted on a fast track as a dialogue partner in 2021 -- after a two-decade-long moratorium. Nevertheless, Turkey's bid is more complex and contentious, as member states hold divergent views on Ankara's global ambitions. Despite a complex and often tense global environment, the 58th Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting was broadly successful. The Malaysian chair was able to connect bilateral concerns to broader regional and global dynamics -- from trade and tariffs to diplomacy and security. As Asean prepares for its next summit in October, the real test will be whether the bloc can consolidate its emerging role as the region's stabilising force -- a true balancing wheel in an increasingly polarized world.


The Star
12-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Asean's new role as middle ground
Analysts say meetings among top diplomats show the bloc's increasing relevance KUALA LUMPUR: The slew of unprecedented high-level meetings held between top diplomats at the just concluded Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting (AMM) underscores the relevance of Asean as a geopolitical middle ground, say analysts. They said these meetings, which involved diplomats from global powers, showed that Asean is becoming more credible. Political analyst Azmi Hasan said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had set the tone of Malaysia's chairmanship of Asean by pledging to raise other international issues aside from matters linked to South-East Asia. 'This means being involved in outside issues such as the conflicts in Gaza, Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel and India-Pakistan. 'So, credit should be given to the chairman, who tried to elevate Asean to be respected by other nations,' he said. Azmi said the joint communique issued at the end of the four-day AMM from July 8 to July 11 showed that Asean wants to exert influence on global issues. 'The side meetings held among these global superpowers on the sidelines of the AMM are very important,' he said. Among top diplomats present at the AMM were Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Among the important bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the conference was one between Lavrov and Rubio, which concluded after about 50 minutes. Rubio spoke with Lavrov here on Thursday evening, having already met with the 10-member Asean bloc. Great power dialogue: Rubio (left) meeting with Wang (right) at the sidelines of the Asean Foreign Ministers Meeting. — AFP Rubio, who was on his first Asia trip since taking over the State Department, also held a meeting with Wang and described it as 'positive and constructive'. In the joint communique issued on July 11, Asean foreign ministers said they are strengthening ties with global partners while maintaining their neutral and central role in the region. Asean also reaffirmed its commitment to an open and inclusive regional order, stressing that the regional group remains a platform for dialogue, not rivalry. Assoc prof Khoo Ying Hooi of Universiti Malaya International and Strategic Studies Department said Asean has long positioned itself as a neutral and inclusive regional convener. The AMM this year had underscored that role in an unprecedented way, as many bilateral meetings were held on the sidelines, she said. 'These engagements, especially the Wang Yi-Rubio dialogue, suggest that Asean is increasingly considered a geopolitical middle ground where rivalries can be managed diplomatically. 'That said, we should not romanticise this role too much. Asean's 'centrality' works precisely because it offers a low-stake platform, one that avoids tough commitments or binding rules,' she said. Khoo said global superpowers are showing up at the AMM because the presence reflects their desire to shape regional norms in their own terms. 'Asean may be hosting the table, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's controlling the menu,' she said. Khoo said US-China tensions and escalating trade disputes, as well as varying tariff rates announced by the United States, had dominated the headlines during the AMM last week. 'This placed Rubio in a challenging position during his visit, as he sought to reassure South-East Asian partners while Washington's economic policies threatened their interests. 'The regional reaction was mixed; some Asean countries expressed frustration, while others began exploring deeper trade ties with China as a counterweight,' she said. Khoo said Beijing capitalised on that moment and used the AMM's sidelines to present itself as a more stable partner. She noted that issues pertaining to Palestine, the South China Sea and Myanmar were also raised. 'But it was the broader structural clash between the US and China through economic tools like tariffs and diplomatic influence that shaped the tone and urgency of this year's AMM discussions,' she added. Khoo described the AMM as a diplomatic litmus test on managing rivalries and maintaining unity. 'The Asean Summit in October will be pivotal. Timor-Leste is expected to be formally admitted. Malaysia has been signalling a desire for renewal, not a radical overhaul, but a recalibration. 'The 47th Summit presents a potential opportunity for Asean to demonstrate greater confidence and cohesion. 'However, this will largely depend on the willingness of member states to transcend the usual practice of consensus and actively pursue structural reform,' she stated. Asia West East Centre director and co-founder Abdolreza Alami said Asean has emerged as a trusted platform due to its strategic geographical and economic position at the intersection of the East and West. 'The region sits at the heart of one of the world's most vital geopolitical crossroads – the Indo-Pacific – where the interests of major global players such as China, the US, the European Union and others increasingly converge. 'The growing interest in Asean, evident from the unprecedented number of high-level bilateral and multilateral meetings on the sidelines of the AMM, underscores how the organisation is seen as a valuable venue for diplomacy and strategic dialogue,' he said. Abdolreza also said the AMM is a clear precursor to a highly significant 47th Asean Summit in October, which will be potentially attended by heads of state from major powers. This, he said, is symbolically and strategically important, especially at a time when global polarisation is intensifying. 'The challenge for Asean will be to navigate these dynamics carefully, reinforcing its unity and ensuring that it remains a space for cooperation – not competition – between great powers,' he said. 'If managed wisely, Asean could play an increasingly critical role in shaping a stable and inclusive regional order,' added Abdolreza. The 47th Asean Summit will be held in Kuala Lumpur from Oct 26 to 28.

Straits Times
11-07-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Rubio says no ‘drama or division' in US relations with Japan
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox Japan's Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on July 11. KUALA LUMPUR - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on July 11 played down concerns about relations with key US ally Japan, saying there is no 'drama or division', despite the Japanese prime minister speaking of the need for Tokyo to wean itself off US dependence. In remarks to reporters, Mr Rubio also disputed reports of US pressure on Japan to significantly increase its defence spending, saying that while Washington was "encouraging" Tokyo to invest in certain capabilities, this did not amount to a "demand". "It's less to do with the amount of money and more to do about certain things they can do," he said after attending a regional meeting in Malaysia. Japanese media reported in June that the Trump administration was demanding that Japan and other Asian allies boost defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP in line with demands on Nato members. A Financial Times report in June said Japan cancelled an annual defence and foreign ministers meeting with the US after it called on Tokyo to boost defence spending beyond what it requested earlier. President Donald Trump further upset Japan this week by announcing a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese imports starting August 1 as part of his global tariff strategy. On July 10, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Japan needed to wean itself from US dependence in security, food, and energy. Asked about Mr Ishiba's remarks, Mr Rubio said the United States has 'a very strong and very good relationship with Japan, and that's not going to change'. "Anyone who's looking for, like, drama or division there ... shouldn't be doing it because the truth of the matter is our relationship with Japan is very solid." He said Mr Ishiba's comment should not be viewed negatively. "The idea that Japan's military would become more capable is not something we would be offended by; it's something we would actually be encouraged by," he said. Mr Christopher Johnstone, a former Biden White House official now with the Asia Group consultancy, said trade frictions, pressure on defence spending, and uncertainty about US defence commitments meant US-Japan tensions were probably at their worst in a generation, but reducing Tokyo's reliance on the US was easier said than done. "If the two countries reach a trade agreement by August 1, it could fade," he said. "But Ishiba's comments reflect sentiment that is real and widespread." REUTERS
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First Post
10-07-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Rubio holds 'frank' talks with Lavrov, says he's 'disappointed' over lack of progress on Ukraine
Rubio on Thursday said he conveyed his 'disappointment and frustration' to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov over the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine, describing their exchange as 'a frank and important conversation' read more US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the Asean Foreign Ministers' Meeting at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Thursday. Reuters US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday said he conveyed his 'disappointment and frustration' to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine, describing their exchange as 'a frank and important conversation.' 'I echoed what the president (Donald Trump) said, both a disappointment and frustration at the lack of progress,' The Guardian quoted Rubio, who met Lavrov on the sidelines of the Asean gathering in Malaysia, as saying in a 50-minute meeting. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Meanwhile, Moscow also described the meeting as a 'substantive and frank exchange of views."' According to AFP, Rubio said that Lavrov shared 'a new idea' on Ukraine, without offering any detail on what it was. 'It's not a new approach. It's a new idea or a new concept that I'll take back to the president to discuss,' AFP quoted Rubio as reporters, cautioning it was not something that 'automatically leads to peace, but it could potentially open the door to a path.' Rubio's second in-person meeting came amid intensified Russian attacks in Ukraine. The two had previously met in February and spoken by phone in May and June. Trump has grown increasingly - and publicly - frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin as the war drags on. Meanwhile, Russian missiles and drones struck Kyiv early Thursday, forcing thousands into shelters as Ukraine's air defences struggle under intensifying attacks. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia launched 18 missiles and around 400 drones, following a record 728-drone barrage the night before. President Trump, who returned to power this year vowing to quickly end the war, has taken a tougher tone recently. A day after resuming US arms deliveries to Ukraine, he dismissed Putin's peace signals as 'meaningless.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Trump is also weighing support for a Senate bill proposing severe sanctions on Russia, including 500% tariffs on countries importing Russian energy and raw materials. Rubio confirmed the administration's engagement with the Senate on the bill. Despite Trump's criticism, the Kremlin said on Wednesday it remains committed to repairing US-Russia relations. With inputs from agencies