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BRICS+ Series: Nigeria's Pivot to BRICS Trade Deepens Amid US Tariff Threats
In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria's trade with BRICS nations dramatically increased to ₦5.41 trillion, significantly surpassing the ₦1.54 trillion in exports to the United States during the same period.
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In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria's trade with BRICS nations dramatically increased to ₦5.41 trillion, significantly surpassing the ₦1.54 trillion in exports to the United States during the same period. This surge signifies a strategic pivot in Nigeria's trade policy, prioritising emerging markets in its commercial endeavors.
Nigeria's latest foreign trade report from the National Bureau of Statistics highlights a significant shift in its economic diplomacy. India is the leading destination for BRICS-bound exports, importing ₦2.84 trillion in Nigerian goods. Following India are Indonesia (₦1.19 trillion) and South Africa (₦708 billion). Brazil and China also remain important trade partners, with figures of ₦369 billion and ₦301 billion, respectively. Egypt, the newest member of the bloc, currently accounts for a modest ₦1.6 billion.
Nigeria's economic diversification and global alliance recalibration are evidenced by a significant, though understated, increase in trade with BRICS nations. This surge in trade volume is likely even higher when factoring in exchanges with Russia, Iran, Ethiopia, and the UAE, all members of the expanded BRICS group, as these figures are currently excluded. US Tariff threats
While exports to the United States saw a respectable 65.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, reaching ₦1.54 trillion primarily due to oil, agro-based, and petrochemical products, this recovery may be temporary. Washington's potential imposition of an additional 10% tariff on exports from nations perceived as aligning with BRICS poses a significant threat to Nigeria's trade with the US.
Former US President Donald Trump, currently campaigning for the 2026 midterms, stated on Truth Social that BRICS nations are "undermining American interests" through their de-dollarisation agenda and anti-hegemonic stance. He proposed a tariff that would raise Nigeria's average exposure on US exports from 14% to 24%. Trade analysts caution that such a move could significantly harm Nigeria's competitiveness in vital sectors.
Given Nigeria's heavy reliance on export earnings to stabilise its currency, a decrease in US trade inflow could prove destabilising. This would likely compel the Central Bank to bolster the naira, further depleting reserves amidst ongoing inflation and monetary tightening.
The proposed US tariffs pose significant concerns for Nigeria's private sector, according to Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria. He warned that increased global trade tensions could negatively impact Nigeria's import-dependent manufacturing sector. Specifically, higher costs for raw materials and machinery from countries targeted by the US tariff scheme, such as the US, South Korea, and Japan, could lead to reduced productivity and an exacerbated trade deficit for Nigeria.
Opportunities amid global trade realignments
Abuja officially maintains its non-aligned stance, as stated by Ademola Oshodi, the President's senior aide on foreign affairs. Oshodi clarified on Channels Television that Nigeria is a BRICS+ partner, not a full member, and therefore does not participate in the bloc's decision-making. He characterised BRICS as a practical platform for strategic South-South cooperation, while underscoring Nigeria's ongoing engagement with Western entities like the Commonwealth, the EU, and the G20.
Evidence points to increasing commercial ties. The rapport between President Bola Tinubu and Brazil's President Lula da Silva has led to enhanced energy cooperation. Nigeria's export volumes to India, its primary trading partner, have doubled within six months. Concurrently, China has increased its investments in Nigerian infrastructure, including port development in Lekki and railway expansion projects in the north.
Egbesola identifies a significant opportunity for Nigeria. Given BRICS' increasing collaboration with Africa, particularly through initiatives supporting the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Nigeria is strategically positioned to emerge as a central trade hub on the continent. Its substantial population, large consumer market, and logistical strengths could enable Nigeria to act as a crucial entry point for BRICS investments aiming to access Africa's expanding middle class.
To leverage this momentum, Nigeria needs to prioritise investments in trade infrastructure, minimise non-tariff obstacles, and synchronise its regulatory frameworks with the goals of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Additionally, it is crucial to support domestic industries in becoming globally competitive and prepared for export.
Written By:
Dr Iqbal Survé
Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN
*Sesona Mdlokovana
Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group
African Specialist
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