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Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Stock market outlook: Experts see Nifty 50 at 26K peak despite unlikely recovery in the near-term
India Inc.'s Q4 FY25 earnings season was broadly in line with Street expectations, reflecting subdued growth and offering limited optimism for a near-term recovery. Companies in the BSE-500 index posted a 8.7% year-on-year (YoY) increase in net profit, while the Nifty 50 companies reported a more modest 3.7% growth in net income. The fourth quarter was marked by modest operating performance across most sectors and muted commentary from company managements. This suggests that a strong revival in credit, consumption, or investment demand is unlikely in the immediate future. According to Kotak Institutional Equities, the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of Nifty 50 companies grew by 9.2% YoY in Q4. For the full fiscal year 2025, net income and EBITDA of the Nifty 50 rose by 6.4% and 4.5%, respectively. The Nifty 50 is currently trading at 20.2 times one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER), slightly below its five-year average of 21.7x. This positions the market in a relatively neutral valuation zone. 'Markets could see a phase of consolidation in the near term, as the percentage of BSE200 stocks trading above +1 standard deviation from their long-term average has increased significantly — from 10.6% to 30.3%,' said Seshadri Sen, Head of Research and Strategist at Emkay Global Financial Services. He added that while near-term global and geopolitical concerns have largely played out, a constructive trade agreement with the US could offer support. Emkay Global has maintained its Nifty 50 target of 26,000 for March 31, 2026, based on a long-term average PER of 20x on FY27 estimated EPS of 1,304. Meanwhile, Kotak Institutional Equities highlighted the Indian equity market's current dilemma — caught between high valuations, domestic growth challenges, and global macroeconomic headwinds on one side, and the hopes of an eventual recovery in economic and earnings growth on the other. 'We observe stretched valuations across most sectors and stocks—barring BFSI and a few exceptions — against a backdrop of weak volume growth and increasing disruption risks,' Kotak said in a note. Seshadri Sen remains constructive on the broader markets. While concerns around reciprocal tariffs have largely eased, he expects investor attention to shift toward the progress on bilateral trade agreements. 'We forecast Nifty EPS growth of around 12–13% in FY26. Green shoots of recovery in discretionary consumption may emerge as the impact of monetary easing becomes more pronounced. The market witnessed a V-shaped rally following the tariff pause, and we expect the beta rally to continue. Any meaningful correction should be considered a buying opportunity,' Sen said. He views current Nifty 50 levels as fundamentally justified, with scope for further upside as the earnings cycle begins to inflect. Supportive monetary policy — characterized by rate cuts, liquidity support, and relaxed lending norms — provides additional comfort. Emkay Global maintains its overweight stance on the Discretionary, Technology, and Telecom sectors, reflecting confidence in their growth potential amid an evolving macroeconomic landscape. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
News18
3 days ago
- Business
- News18
Nomura Boosts Nifty March 2026 Target To 26,140; Recommends Key Stock Picks
Last Updated: Nomura observed that, despite overall earnings estimate reductions, India's Q4 season saw more companies outperform than underperform Nifty Target For March 2026: Nomura India has raised its Nifty target for March 2026 to 26,140, citing supportive macroeconomic factors that continue to bolster equity valuations, even as risks to corporate earnings linger. The Japanese brokerage noted that positive domestic macros, such as falling bond yields and robust domestic inflows, are underpinning the market's performance. Nomura's new target represents about a 6% upside from current levels. Why the Upgrade? 'Given the favorable macro backdrop and supportive valuations, we have raised the target valuation multiple to 21x (up from 19.5x)," said Saion Mukherjee and Amlan Jyoti Das, Nomura research analysts, in a note. 'Applying this to FY27 forward earnings, we arrive at a new Nifty target of 26,140 (up from 24,970)." They believe the combination of lower bond yields, steady domestic investor flows, and resilient performance of Indian equities has strengthened market sentiment, despite earnings downgrades. Nomura flagged a deceleration in corporate earnings growth. Reviewing Q4FY25 results from 223 companies (including the BSE 200), it noted that while aggregate profit after tax rose 10% YoY—6% ahead of consensus—earnings expectations for FY26 and FY27 have been trimmed. Consensus estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been cut by 2.3% and 1.4%, respectively, since March 2025. Compared to September 2024, the downgrades are steeper at 7.6% and 6.3%. Nomura expects further 4-8% earnings cuts for FY27. Key risks include a sluggish investment cycle, fiscal consolidation, weak household savings, and tepid export demand—although some of these pressures may be mitigated by softer oil prices, easing inflation, and falling interest rates. Indian equities are trading at about 20.5x one-year forward earnings, near the top of their three-year range. Yet, Nomura said the earnings yield-to-bond yield spread remains in a comfortable zone, supporting the positive market outlook. 'Even with global trade uncertainties and policy risks, the equity risk premium remains low," Nomura said. Sector Preferences Tilt to Domestic Themes Nomura now favors domestic-facing sectors and consumption themes over export-led and investment-heavy sectors. 'We prefer domestic-focused sectors due to global uncertainties. Consumption themes, driven by low inflation, potential rate cuts, and fiscal support like income tax reductions, appear promising," the report said. The brokerage is overweight on financials, consumer staples, autos, discretionary spending, oil and gas, power, telecom, internet, and real estate. It also favours select domestic healthcare plays and stocks linked to the supply-chain relocation trend, particularly in autos, chemicals, and electronics. Sector preferences tilt to domestic plays, consumption. Nomura has shifted its sectoral bias in favour of domestic-oriented stocks and consumption themes over export-led and investment-driven sectors. 'We prefer domestic-focused sectors to exporters given global uncertainties. Within that, consumption themes look more promising due to tailwinds from low inflation, rate cuts, and fiscal support such as income tax reductions," the report said. The brokerage is overweight on financials, consumer staples, autos, discretionary spending, oil and gas, power, telecom, internet, and real estate. It also favours select domestic healthcare plays and stocks linked to the supply-chain relocation trend, particularly in autos, chemicals, and electronics. Conversely, Nomura remains cautious on IT services, industrials, cement, and metals—sectors tied to capital expenditure cycles and global demand. It also flagged US tariff risks as a near-term headwind for Indian pharma exports, though it sees any correction as a buying opportunity. 'In our view, the investment cycle may be delayed due to global uncertainty," it said. 'But selective opportunities still exist, particularly in power sector-related industrials." Top Stock Ideas: What's In, What's Out? Among largecaps, Nomura's preferred buys include ICICI Bank, SBI, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Godrej Consumer, Mahindra & Mahindra, CG Power, Reliance Industries, and Tata Power. For small and midcaps, Marico, Dixon, Uno Minda, Gland Pharma, Lupin, MedPlus, Oberoi Realty, and Dr Lal Pathlabs feature prominently. Portfolio Changes top videos View all Removed: Federal Bank (due to earnings pressure and margin concerns), Bharat Electronics (after sharp rally) Added: Hindustan Aeronautics (order visibility), Jindal Steel & Power (new capacity upside), Oberoi Realty (favorable project pipeline) IT least preferred: L&T Technology Services (weaker visibility in engineering R&D amid tariff risks) Metals switch: Dropped JSW Steel (litigation concerns) Nomura believes that while the investment cycle might be delayed due to global volatility, selective opportunities—especially in power sector-linked industrials—still exist. Stay updated with all the latest news on the Stock Market, including market trends, Sensex and Nifty updates, top gainers and losers, and expert analysis. Get real-time insights, financial reports, and investment strategies—only on News18. tags : Nifty Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 02, 2025, 13:49 IST News business » markets Nomura Boosts Nifty March 2026 Target To 26,140; Recommends Key Stock Picks
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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Nomura raises Nifty March 2026 target to 26,140 on supportive macros
Nomura on Nifty50: Japan-based brokerage firm Nomura has raised its Nifty50 target for March 2026 to 26,140, up from its previous projection of 24,970, citing favourable domestic macroeconomic conditions and stable equity valuations despite persistent risks to corporate earnings growth. The revised target implies a potential upside of about 6 per cent from current levels. Nomura's analysts believe the market is being supported by falling bond yields, steady domestic inflows, and relatively resilient performance in Indian equities, even as earnings estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been cut. 'We assess the fair value range for the Nifty at 18-24x one-year forward earnings, which implies upside/downside of 24 per cent/12 per cent from current levels. Assuming benign risk premium and low yields, we raise the target valuation multiple to 21x (from 19.5x previously),' Saion Mukherjee and Amlan Jyoti Das, research analysts at Nomura said, in a note. 'Based on 21x P/E on FY27F earnings, we arrive at our March 2026 Nifty target of 26,140 (versus 24,970 previously), suggesting potential upside of 6 per cent from current levels.' Earnings cuts weigh on outlook Despite an earnings season with more beats than misses, Nomura analysts flagged a deceleration in overall growth. The brokerage reviewed Q4FY25 results from 223 companies (including the BSE 200 and its coverage universe), where aggregate profit after tax rose 10 per cent Y-o-Y—6 per cent ahead of consensus—but earnings expectations continue to trend lower. Consensus estimates for FY26 and FY27 earnings have been revised down by 2.3 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, since March 2025. Compared to September 2024, the downgrades are deeper—7.6 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively. Nomura expects further earnings cuts of 4–8 per cent for FY27. 'The corporate earnings-to-GDP ratio is already close to its peak,' Nomura noted. 'Significant outperformance to nominal GDP growth appears unlikely in the near term.' Risks to earnings include a weak investment cycle, fiscal consolidation, reduced household financial savings, and sluggish export demand. However, these pressures may be partially offset by softer oil prices, easing inflation, and declining interest rates. Valuation holds up amid global volatility Indian equities are trading at 20.5x one-year forward earnings, near the upper end of their three-year range. Still, the earnings yield to bond yield spread of -1.4 per cent remains within a comfortable band, according to Nomura. 'The favourable spread is comforting and supports our positive view on market valuation,' analysts at Nomura said. 'Even with trade-related global uncertainties and policy risks, equity risk premiums remain low.' Sector preferences tilt to domestic plays, consumption Nomura has shifted its sectoral bias in favour of domestic-oriented stocks and consumption themes over export-led and investment-driven sectors. 'We prefer domestic-focused sectors to exporters given global uncertainties. Within that, consumption themes look more promising due to tailwinds from low inflation, rate cuts, and fiscal support such as income tax reductions,' the report said. The brokerage is overweight on financials, consumer staples, autos, discretionary spending, oil and gas, power, telecom, internet, and real estate. It also favours select domestic healthcare plays and stocks linked to the supply-chain relocation trend—particularly in autos, chemicals, and electronics. Conversely, Nomura remains cautious on IT services, industrials, cement, and metals—sectors tied to capital expenditure cycles and global demand. It also flagged US tariff risks as a near-term headwind for Indian pharma exports, though it sees any correction as a buying opportunity. 'In our view, the investment cycle may be delayed due to global uncertainty,' it said. 'But selective opportunities still exist, particularly in power sector-related industrials.'
Time of India
22-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Emkay picks JK Cement, Motilal Oswal, 2 more small & midcap stocks. 4 reasons why
4 reasons why Emkay remains bullish on SMIDs: Live Events Sector preferences (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In a bullish relook at the small and mid-cap (SMID) space, Emkay Global has reiterated its constructive stance on Indian equities and picked four stocks as top SMID ideas. The brokerage has added Bikaji Foods, JK Cement Sonata Software , and Motilal Oswal Financial Services to its SMID picks while maintaining confidence in Escorts Kubota Metropolis Healthcare , One 97 Communications (Paytm), and confidence in SMIDs stems from the belief that small and midcap stocks are not in bubble territory despite appearing elevated on headline P/E metrics. The brokerage argues that a significant portion of the Nifty's lower valuation is driven by heavy exposure (20%) to low P/E sectors like financials and energy, areas where SMIDs have relatively less a sector-adjusted basis, SMID stocks show no material deviation in valuations or fundamentals compared to their large-cap peers, it preference leans toward SMID-heavy sectors such as consumer discretionary and materials, while it remains underweight on largecap dominated sectors like financials and FMCG. This sectoral tilt, along with improving earnings quality and resilient fourth-quarter results, underpins the firm's confidence in the SMID segment.1) Emkay's bullish tilt toward SMID stocks is underpinned by supportive fundamentals, attractive sector dynamics, and a potential earnings upswing.2) With the US striking tariff deals with countries, market sentiment is steadying. Political uncertainties have also subsided, and a further ease in tensions would lead to outperformance in SMIDs over their larger peers.3) The brokerage sees earnings upgrades in FY26 as likely, citing softer commodity prices, signs of demand recovery, and anticipated monetary easing. Already, 61% of companies with broad analyst coverage are projected to report stronger EPS growth in FY26 versus FY25—a trend that could further strengthen if upgrades materialize in sectors like discretionary, energy, and technology.4) Valuations are viewed as neutral, with the Nifty trading around its long-term average. However, Emkay highlights that 30% of BSE 200 stocks are trading at more than one standard deviation above their historical P/E, suggesting investors are already rewarding earnings discretionary remains our top OW, with technology/healthcare/real estate /utilities as the other preferred sectors. We remain UW on financials and staples, where we see a severe growth-valuation mismatch. Our model portfolio remains unchanged this firm advises using any short-term pullbacks to accumulate high-beta SMID names.
News18
19-05-2025
- Business
- News18
Rs 200 Dividend: Jockey-Maker's Firm To Go Ex-Dividend In 2 Days, Know Payment Date
Last Updated: Jockey-maker earlier announced the record date for the 4th interim dividend as May 21, 2025. Page Industries 4th Interim Dividend 2025 Record Date: Page Industries, the owner of Jockey brand products, has recommended 4th interim dividend of Rs 200 (at the rate of 2000%) for the financial year 2024-25. Page Industries earlier announced the record date for the abovementioned dividend as May 21, 2025. The company will also announce its audited financial results for the quarter and year ended 31 March 2025 on May 21. Page Industries 4th Interim Dividend 2025 Payment Date The date fixed for payment of dividend is on or before 13 June 2025. It means those shareholders who are eligible for the 4th interim dividend will be paid out on or before the mentioned date. Page Industries Dividend History Page Industries announced a dividend of Rs 150.00 with an ex-date on February 13 this year, followed by dividend of Rs 250.00 with an ex-date on November 14, 2024 The company declared the 1st interim dividend of Rs 300 per share for FY2024-25, with ex-date on August 16, 2024. Page Industries Share Price Page Industries is a midcap company of BSE 200 with a current market cap of Rs 54,246.92 crore. The LTP of its share is Rs 48635.80 per share. The shares gained on Monday by 1.64 per cent. Page Industries Limited located in Bangalore, India is the exclusive licensee of JOCKEY International Inc. (USA) for manufacture, distribution and marketing of the JOCKEY brand in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and the UAE. Page Industries is also the exclusive licensee of Speedo International Ltd. for the manufacture, marketing and distribution of the Speedo brand in India. First Published: May 19, 2025, 11:40 IST
