Latest news with #BVRSubrahmanyam
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's ultra-rich population to rise 50% by 2028, fastest globally: Report
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel New Delhi: India will witness the world's fastest growth in the number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), with their population expected to surge by 50 per cent between 2023 and 2028, according to a report by McKinsey & Company and state of fashion luxury report says that the Indian luxury market is expected to grow between 15 and 20 per cent in 2025, fuelled by demographic and structural to the report, new luxury malls and department stores, such as the Jio World Plaza and Galeries Lafayette, are increasing luxury real estate in tier-one cities. It further adds that the newly increased taxes on imported goods over Rs 700,000 (USD 8,400) are expected to encourage domestic spending, although the domestic Goods and Services Tax on luxury goods remains high at 28 per to the Indian growth, the Japanese luxury market is expected to grow between 6 and 10 per cent in 2025, retaining its position as a core luxury market. The growth in Japanese markets will be driven by both solid domestic demand and tourism NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam announced that India has overtaken Japan to become the world's fourth-largest data from the International Monetary Fund, the CEO of India's apex think tank stated that India's economy has reached the USD 4 trillion per the report, Japan is home to the second-largest number of UHNWIs in Asia, which is expected to grow by more than 12 per cent from 2023 to 2028. The growth rate of UHNWIs in India is more than that of to the IMF's April edition of the World Economic Outlook report, India's nominal GDP for fiscal 2026 is expected to reach around USD 4.187 trillion. This is marginally more than Japan's likely GDP, which is estimated at USD 4.186 report added that over the past five years, the luxury industry experienced a period of exceptional value creation. Between 2019 and 2023, unprecedented demand for personal luxury goods -- fashion, handbags, watches and jewellery among them -- combinedWith a deep well of supply allowed the sector to achieve a 5 per cent compound annual growth brands outperformed global markets and achieved new profitability records. But in the year 2025 so far, the luxury industry has faced a significant slowdown that has hit even top brands hard. For the first time since 2016 (excluding 2020), luxury value creation of the industry's growth-driving engines have stalled. Macroeconomic headwinds --especially in the key China market, which grew more than 18 per cent annually from 2019 to 2023 -- are weighing heavily on the sector, the report highlighted.
The Print
a day ago
- Business
- The Print
India's GDP victory over Japan is still a year away. Here's why
Equally clearly, the database presents estimates of India's GDP for fiscal year 2025-26 as $4.187 trillion and Japan's as $4.186 trillion—that is, India's GDP exceeds Japan's by 0.02 per cent in 2025-26. From this, many, if not most, analysts have erroneously concluded that this won't happen until March 2026. Why erroneous? Because it is a fiscal year conclusion, and the 'centre of gravity' of an April-March fiscal year is September. So, it is likely that the NITI Aayog CEO, in making his hasty conclusion, was wrong by only four months. As it happens, Subrahmanyam was hasty by approximately a year. Critics of the government's assertion make two points, one relevant and the other 'noisy'. The relevant point is that the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database clearly shows that for the fiscal year 2024-25 (ending in March 2025), India's GDP was $3.9 trillion while Japan's was $4.0 trillion—that is, Japan was 2.6 per cent ahead. Fortunately, both Japan and India have the same fiscal year—April-March—hence adjustments to WEO data are not needed. There has been much discussion about the assertions made by BVR Subrahmanyam, the CEO of NITI Aayog, India's only official think tank. Speaking at a press conference following the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and presumably attended by senior bureaucrats, Subrahmanyam said that 'as I speak', India has overtaken Japan in current dollar GDP. Note that his conclusion and inference pertains to current dollar GDP, and we have to contend with the conversion from rupees to US dollars, and from Japanese yen to US dollars. India and Japan numbers First, let us look at the Indian estimate. Data just released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday shows that India's GDP in current prices for January-March 2025 quarter was Rs 88.17 trillion, or annualised Rs 352.7 trillion. On 23 May, the last market day before Subrahmanyam's assertion, the exchange rate was Rs 85.4/$—that is, current GDP in March 2025 was 352.7/85.4 or $4.13 trillion. Indian nominal GDP is growing by about 10 per cent a year. So, by March 2026, we should expect current India GDP to reach $4.54 trillion. Now we examine the fortunes of Japan's GDP. The seasonally adjusted quarterly estimate of Japan's GDP is 624.9 trillion yen for Q1 of 2025. On 23 May, the exchange rate was 142.6 yen/$; hence Japan's GDP in March 2025 was $4.38 trillion, some 6.1 per cent ahead of India's GDP on the same date. Given that exchange rates change every day, we need to decide as to what exchange rate we should use. Amongst many, we can use a calendar year estimate, a quarterly estimate or a 23 May estimate. But no matter which one we use, it will be wrong because exchange rates do not remain constant, and the future is not asked to see, que sera sera. All of us are concerned with the 23 May estimate, hence the discussion and this note. Japan's nominal GDP growth has averaged 3.4 per cent for the last three years. Assuming this to be the average for 2025-26, the estimate for March 2026 is $4.53 trillion GDP (as 4.38*1.034). So it will be sometime in March 2027 that India's GDP will exceed Japan's in current dollars. Again, que sera sera, the conclusion will depend on what happens to exchange rates. Changes in exchange rates affect nominal dollar GDP calculations. Assume in March 2027 all estimates come true except the $ yen exchange rate changes from 142.7 to 135 (the yen has become stronger by 5.7 per cent), then Japan's GDP will be 5.7 per cent higher and the day of decision will be delayed beyond March 2027. How do we interpret the dash to conclusion by the CEO? As a sports junkie, I recall countless occasions over the last 50 years when a sprinter looked over his shoulder to see his competitor – and lost the race. Also read: GDP data revisions—why India still struggles with sharp variations Lesson for India—good data, bad data What do we learn from his data-heavy exercise? First, haste makes wrong. Second, and more importantly, what difference will it make to the price of tomatoes (as I am often inclined to say) if India GDP is equal to Japan GDP? Third, and most important, and as pointed out by many, what matters is equivalence in per capita GDP, and on this, we are decades away—whether measured in current $ or PPP $ or constant dollars. One final comment. It is unfortunate that in the last ten years, most of the decision-making bureaucracy has lost respect for the data. The bad quality household consumer expenditure data for 2017-18 has still not been released. Several analyses of the 2017-18 data (see the 2022 IMF Working Paper authored by me and my colleagues Karan Bhasin and Arvind Virmani, and several other documents and books) conclude that the 2017-18 data was of such bad quality that the world, and India, needed to examine why it was of such bad quality. By not releasing that data, we have created an atmosphere where it is 'open sesame' for domestic and international scholars to question good Indian data. Food for thought for Niti and decision-making bureaucrats. Surjit S Bhalla is a former Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund. He tweets @surjitbhalla. Views are personal. (Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)
Mint
a day ago
- Business
- Mint
The week in charts: Monsoon cheer, India's GDP rank, IIP slump
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has marginally raised its monsoon forecast for 2025, while April's industrial output growth slowed to 2.7%. Meanwhile, data continues to contradict recent claims by NITI Aayog's CEO that India is already the world's fourth-largest economy. Monsoon marvel The IMD now expects rainfall during the June–September monsoon season to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA), up from its April forecast of 105%. Rainfall in June alone is projected at 108% of LPA. Read this | Why a bountiful monsoon matters more this year, in five charts Rainfall is also likely to be above normal in the Monsoon Core Zone — India's key rain-fed agricultural belt. With the rains arriving early in several states, the outlook is positive for kharif crop output. Rank ruckus NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam recently claimed that India had already overtaken Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy and that the data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed it. However, the IMF's latest data from April 2025 World Economic Outlook shows India's GDP for fiscal year 2025 at $3.909 trillion, below Japan's $4.026 trillion for the calendar year 2024, keeping India in the fifth place. Read this | Beyond the buzz: Has India really surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy? India is projected to surpass Japan only in FY26, with $4.187 trillion versus Japan's $4.186 trillion. Share sell-off $1.35 billion: That's the value of shares IndiGo co-founder and promoter Rakesh Gangwal sold in a block deal on Tuesday, Mint reported. Gangwal and his Chinkerpoo Family Trust offloaded 22.1 million shares, or a 5.7% stake, at ₹5,230.5 each in InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, which operates IndiGo. Following a settlement with co-founder Rahul Bhatia, Gangwal has been gradually reducing his stake in the airline. He sold a 5.83% stake on 29 August 2024, after offloading an identical stake on 11 April 2024. Output slump India's industrial output growth slowed to 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, marking an eight-month low, mainly due to a sharp decline in electricity and mining production. Manufacturing growth also moderated to 3.4%, though a sharp rise in capital goods output (20.3%) signalled positive investment momentum. While consumer durables held steady, non-durables remained in contraction. With lower temperatures reducing power demand and base effects turning unfavourable, factory output in May 2025 is expected to dip below 2%, a note by India Ratings and Research said. Staff squeeze For the first time in five years, Tata Motors' workforce shrank in FY25. It was down 3% to 58,442 employees amid falling demand for vehicles. This is in sharp contrast to the previous fiscal year when the workforce saw a 6% increase, a Mint report said. The decline was mainly in non-managerial staff, which fell to 45,486 from 47,495 the previous year. Meanwhile, median salary hikes for senior executives slowed to 3% from 15% the previous year. However, the company said drop in employee count reflected year-end adjustments rather than business conditions. Vodafone's woes ₹6,000 crore: That's the value of bank guarantees submitted by Vodafone Idea to the government, a Mint report said. Following the Supreme Court's rejection of adjusted gross revenue (AGR)-related petitions on 19 May, Vodafone informed the court that it may not survive the fiscal year without loans tied to AGR relief. Lenders now await the telecom department's decision on these guarantees. Invoking them would worsen Vodafone's financial crisis. While the government has the power to do so, analysts believe it may refrain, prioritising sector stability over immediate recovery. Trade pacts Global trade dynamics are shifting from multilateralism to country-to-country ties, with regional trade agreements (RTAs) becoming more prominent. As of May 2025, there are 375 RTAs in force globally, up sharply over the past two decades. With 19 RTAs, India ranks at the 11th place, behind China, reflecting its increasing trade engagement, an analysis by shows. Developed countries lead in agreements that often go beyond tariffs. India's RTAs, like the one with the UAE, reflect this evolving trend toward deeper and cross-regional trade partnerships. Chart of the week: Silent strain Marriages in India drastically alter women's daily lives, burdening them with household chores, a Mint analysis of pan-India Time Use Survey showed. Post-marriage, women spend 27% of their day on unpaid domestic duties, up from 6% when unmarried, while men's share rises only marginally from 1% to 3%. Follow our data stories on the 'In Charts" and 'Plain Facts" pages on the Mint website.
Hans India
2 days ago
- Business
- Hans India
India is Not Yet the Fourth-Largest or a $4-Trillion Economy; NITI Aayog CEO's IMF Claim Misleading
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam sparked excitement recently by claiming that India is already the world's fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy, citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data during a press briefing on May 24, 2025. Speaking after the NITI Aayog's 10th governing council meeting themed 'Viksit Rajya for Viksit Bharat', he expressed confidence that India would become the third-largest economy within 2.5 to 3 years, with only the US, China, and Germany ahead. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and several prominent personalities, including Amitabh Bachchan and Anand Mahindra, echoed these claims, sharing graphics attributed to the IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook report that appeared to show India overtaking Japan to become the fourth-largest economy. Fact Check: What Does the IMF Data Actually Say? A detailed examination of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on April 22, 2025, reveals no such official ranking stating India is the fourth-largest economy or that it has surpassed Japan. The 190-page report does not include a ranking chart listing countries by GDP size as circulated on social media. The IMF database provides GDP figures at current prices in US dollars, including estimates for future years. According to this data: India's GDP for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) was $3.91 trillion. India is projected to reach $4.187 trillion by the end of FY26 (April 2025 - March 2026). Japan's GDP in the calendar year 2024 was $4.03 trillion. Japan's GDP is estimated to be $4.186 trillion at the end of 2025. This indicates that India has not yet overtaken Japan, although projections suggest it could do so by the end of FY26. Currently, India ranks fifth in GDP size, behind the United States, China, Germany, and Japan. Clarifications from Experts Other experts associated with NITI Aayog, such as Arvind Virmani, have stressed that India becoming the fourth-largest economy is a forecast for the end of 2025, not a current fact. Virmani noted the importance of waiting for full-year GDP data before making definitive claims. The IMF itself compiles data based on government statistics and provides projections; it does not independently collect raw economic data. Why GDP Ranking Isn't the Full Picture Even if India surpasses Japan in GDP terms, economists caution against using this metric alone to gauge development or progress. GDP figures do not reflect per capita income, income inequality, or employment levels—key factors in assessing overall economic wellbeing. Conclusion While India's economic growth is strong and the country is on track to climb the global GDP rankings, the claim by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam that India is already the fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy is premature and misleading when citing IMF data. India remains the fifth-largest economy as per the latest official figures, with projections indicating it may become fourth by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
If India wants to be 'Viksit' by 2047...: Govt think-tank reveals which sector needs to contribute more to GDP
ANI Niti Aayog chief BVR Subrahmanyam India's manufacturing sector needs to achieve a growth rate of 15 per cent annually to elevate its contribution to the GDP to at least 25 per cent by 2047, according to BVR Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog. Speaking at a Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) event, Subrahmanyam noted that manufacturing currently represents approximately 17 per cent of India's GDP. He said, "Manufacturing sector should be growing at 15 per cent at least. That's the only way to rise from its current share of 17 per cent to 25 per cent.' With projections indicating that India's GDP could reach $30 trillion as it evolves into a developed nation by 2047, the manufacturing sector is expected to contribute $7.5 trillion. To reach this GDP target, Subrahmanyam emphasized the necessity of increasing the average annual GDP growth rate from around 6.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. 'We must bump up our annual GDP by another 1 percentage point to 7.5 per cent,' he achieve this growth, he highlighted the importance of several transformations, starting with urbanization. He pointed out that India's urbanization level is "very very low" at about 30 per cent, and it should exceed 50 per cent. "Many more cities and urban areas have to come up," he suggested. Additionally, he advocated for an increase in energy capacity and making these sources carbon neutral. Subrahmanyam also noted a positive trend in India's manufacturing landscape, mentioning that the country is transitioning from being a net importer to a net exporter of mobile phones. The defence sector is another area where India is seeing success. However, he raised concerns about India's limited presence in the global value chain. He observed, "We have not managed to crack at China, systematically over the past 30 years, it has placed itself at the heart of global value chains. Some or the other parts come from China, and there is a critical dependence on China. Shouldn't we be at the heart of global value chain?" He also addressed regional imbalances in manufacturing, and said, "There are five or six states in India accounting for 90 per cent of whatever is happening, be it domestic investment, manufacturing or foreign investment. What about the rest of India? We can't be on a two-speed track; everybody has to grow."In the context of this growth vision, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged states to develop their vision documents, leading to individual roadmaps that align with the 'Viksit Bharat' initiative. Subrahmanyam indicated that by the end of 2025, all states and Union Territories will have their vision documents and roadmaps for 2047. He concluded, "India is an aggregation of individual visions of small states. You cannot have a national vision where states work in different directions. 17 states have either complete or are on the verge of completion of their vision documents." (With ANI inputs)
