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Gulf Insider
16-06-2025
- Business
- Gulf Insider
Oil And Gold Jump As Israel Targets Iranian Energy
Oil jumped in late Sunday trading with investors focused on escalating geopolitical tensions as Israel and Iran continue to bombard each other with no sign of a pause, amid some speculation the worst-case scenario – a blockade of the straits of Hormuz which could send oil as high as $130 – is increasingly likely (odds rising to 17% according to JPM). Brent crude rose as much as 5.5% to $77.50 – its Thursday night high – in early Asian trading after Israel and Iran continued attacks on one another's territories over the weekend. The price then promptly ease back as shorts who stand to suffer massive losses in case of a squeeze, doubled down by shorting even more in hopes the crises somehow de-escalates. That's a problem because unlike late last week, over the weekend Israel started attacking Iran's energy infrastructure, and on Saturday launched an attack on the giant South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, forcing the shut down of a production platform, after air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites and military leadership last equity-index futures pointed to declines in Hong Kong and Sydney, while contracts for US equities initially edged lower before stubborn retail dip buyers promptly emerged again. The dollar saw modest gains against major peers in early trading, while gold rose toward a record on Monday as the conflict drove investors toward haven assets. Last week's biggest market reaction to the conflict was oil, with crude prices surging more than 13% on Friday before paring some of those gains. The biggest concern for the market centers on the Strait of Hormuz and prices could soar further if Iran attempts to block the route. On Saturday, JPMorgan raised its odds of a Hormuz closure to 17%. 'Markets should be prepared for a prolonged period of uncertainty,' said Wolf von Rotberg, an equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin, quoted by Bloomberg. 'Hedging against potential oil supply-chain disruptions via exposure to the energy market and adding to gold, which may see an acceleration of its structural uptrend, are the best ways to protect a portfolio against a further escalation in the Middle East.' Some investors ended last week choosing to wait to gauge how long the tensions would last, mindful of similar standoffs between the two nations that eventually de-escalated. Still, the extension of the conflict and intensity of the current hostilities is likely to cast a shadow over risk assets on Monday. Already, the MSCI World Index of developed-market equities fell the most since April on Friday following Israel's initial air strikes on Iran. 'This is a significant escalation, to the point where these nations are at war,' said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. 'The ramifications will be larger and last longer,' with weakness in equity markets likely, especially after recent gains, he said. While the drop in US stock futures was modest, most Middle East stock indexes suffered bigger losses on Sunday. Egypt's main gauge was the worst performer, seeing the biggest losses in more than a year on concern that a halt in Israeli gas production will cause fuel shortages. In Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul gauge's declines were limited by Aramco, which gained on higher oil prices. Israel's benchmark ended higher as military supplier Elbit Systems Ltd. rallied. Still, judging by the recent dip-buying euphoria, one can see why some are confident that this too will blow over quickly. 'Unless oil stays elevated and drives inflation higher, this is more likely a pause than a panic as other narratives are driving the market,' said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer, Roundhill Investments. 'It may present a buying opportunity, but with markets having rallied sharply off recent lows, gains from here will be harder to come by.' Traders are weighing the fresh geopolitical risks at a time when they are also grappling with destabilized global trade relationships, the prospect of new tariffs from Donald Trump, economic cross-currents, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and rising political tensions in the US amid protests. Also read: Israel Attack Targets Refinery At Iran's Giant South Pars Gas Field
Hindustan Times
16-06-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
How Iran-Israel conflict affected global oil prices
Oil prices shot up early Monday morning as tensions in the Middle East are escalating due to ongoing military conflict between Iran and Israel, with no de-escalation in sight. The prices for Brent crude jumped as much as 5.5 per cent in early Asian trading, reported Bloomberg, to trade over $76 a barrel. This comes after Israel hit the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf over the weekend. It is the world's largest natural gas field, which Iran shares with Qatar. The attack led to the shutdown of a production platform at the gas field. Track live updates of Iran-Israel conflict here. The biggest impact of the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict on oil prices came last week when they rose by over 13 per cent on Friday. One of the biggest market worries right now is the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key route for global oil shipments, the prices could go even higher. The period of uncertainty in the markets due to the current conflict may be prolonged and markets need to brace for it, according to experts. Also read: Netanyahu says Iran 'wants to kill' Trump, was behind assassination attempts 'Markets should be prepared for a prolonged period of uncertainty. Hedging against potential oil supply-chain disruptions via exposure to the energy market and adding to gold, which may see an acceleration of its structural uptrend, are the best ways to protect a portfolio against a further escalation in the Middle East,' Bloomberg quoted Wolf von Rotberg, an equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin, as saying. 'This is a significant escalation, to the point where these nations are at war. The ramifications will be larger and last longer,' with weakness in equity markets likely, said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, reported Bloomberg. Also read: Trump mixes India-Pak conflict with Iran-Israel hostilities: 'They will make a deal' The markets in the Middle East also reacted sharply on Sunday to Iran and Israel's trading strikes. Egypt's stock market was one of the worst performers as it took its biggest hit in over a year due to fears of fuel shortages caused by a halt in Israeli gas production. In Saudi Arabia too, shares fell, however, the losses were limited by oil giant Aramco. The fresh Middle East conflict comes amid several ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as war between Russia and Ukraine, prospects of new tariffs imposed by US President Trump, and rising political tensions in the US already fuelling market risks, the Bloomberg report said. 'Unless oil stays elevated and drives inflation higher, this is more likely a pause than a panic, as other narratives are driving the market. It may present a buying opportunity, but with markets having rallied sharply off recent lows, gains from here will be harder to come by,' said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments. With inputs from Bloomberg.
Time of India
16-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Asian stocks climb, oil jumps on Israel-Iran conflict
Traders are weighing the fresh geopolitical risks at a time when they are also grappling with destabilized global trade relationships, the prospect of new tariffs from US President Donald Trump, economic cross-currents, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and rising political tensions in the US amid protests. Asian stock markets rebounded slightly after Friday's losses, driven by escalating conflict between Israel and Iran that caused oil prices to surge. Investors are concerned about potential oil supply disruptions and the impact on global inflation, especially with upcoming interest rate decisions from major central banks. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Pause Not Panic Stock markets in Asia moved higher at the start of trading on Monday, pulling back some of their losses from the end of last week. Oil prices surged as a conflict between Israel and Iran continued to Nikkei 225 index was up around 0.8% at the open, while US equity futures reversed earlier losses to edge higher. A broad gauge of Asian stocks was up around 0.2%.Stocks had tumbled on Friday as investors reacted to reports that Israel had launched airstrikes against Iran, and the conflict between the two escalated over the weekend with a series of attacks from both sides.A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar was slightly up in early trading Monday, while safe haven currency the Japanese yen lost ground. Brent crude rose as much as 5.5% in early there is plenty of uncertainty for markets at the moment. Israel launched an attack on the giant South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, forcing the shut down of a production platform, after air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites and military leadership last week.'Markets should be prepared for a prolonged period of uncertainty,' said Wolf von Rotberg, an equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin. 'Hedging against potential oil supply-chain disruptions via exposure to the energy market and adding to gold, which may see an acceleration of its structural uptrend, are the best ways to protect a portfolio against a further escalation in the Middle East.'A major concern for investors is that the conflict leads to a prolonged disruption to the supply of oil. That could weigh on the global economy and potentially fuel a round of inflation just as many central banks pivot towards easing. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are among a raft of central banks set to announce interest rate decisions this the region, most Middle East stock indexes dropped on Sunday. Egypt's main gauge was the worst performer, seeing the biggest losses in more than a year on concern that a halt in Israeli gas production will cause fuel shortages. In Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul gauge's declines were limited by Aramco, which gained on higher oil prices. Israel's benchmark ended higher as military supplier Elbit Systems Ltd. are weighing the fresh geopolitical risks at a time when they are also grappling with destabilized global trade relationships, the prospect of new tariffs from US President Donald Trump, economic cross-currents, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and rising political tensions in the US amid protests.'Unless oil stays elevated and drives inflation higher, this is more likely a pause than a panic as other narratives are driving the market,' said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer, Roundhill Investments. 'It may present a buying opportunity, but with markets having rallied sharply off recent lows, gains from here will be harder to come by.'
Economic Times
16-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Asian stocks climb, oil jumps on Israel-Iran conflict
Traders are weighing the fresh geopolitical risks at a time when they are also grappling with destabilized global trade relationships, the prospect of new tariffs from US President Donald Trump, economic cross-currents, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and rising political tensions in the US amid protests. Synopsis Asian stock markets rebounded slightly after Friday's losses, driven by escalating conflict between Israel and Iran that caused oil prices to surge. Investors are concerned about potential oil supply disruptions and the impact on global inflation, especially with upcoming interest rate decisions from major central banks. Stock markets in Asia moved higher at the start of trading on Monday, pulling back some of their losses from the end of last week. Oil prices surged as a conflict between Israel and Iran continued to escalate. ADVERTISEMENT The Nikkei 225 index was up around 0.8% at the open, while US equity futures reversed earlier losses to edge higher. A broad gauge of Asian stocks was up around 0.2%. Stocks had tumbled on Friday as investors reacted to reports that Israel had launched airstrikes against Iran, and the conflict between the two escalated over the weekend with a series of attacks from both sides. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar was slightly up in early trading Monday, while safe haven currency the Japanese yen lost ground. Brent crude rose as much as 5.5% in early there is plenty of uncertainty for markets at the moment. Israel launched an attack on the giant South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, forcing the shut down of a production platform, after air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites and military leadership last week. ADVERTISEMENT 'Markets should be prepared for a prolonged period of uncertainty,' said Wolf von Rotberg, an equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin. 'Hedging against potential oil supply-chain disruptions via exposure to the energy market and adding to gold, which may see an acceleration of its structural uptrend, are the best ways to protect a portfolio against a further escalation in the Middle East.' A major concern for investors is that the conflict leads to a prolonged disruption to the supply of oil. That could weigh on the global economy and potentially fuel a round of inflation just as many central banks pivot towards easing. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are among a raft of central banks set to announce interest rate decisions this week. ADVERTISEMENT In the region, most Middle East stock indexes dropped on Sunday. Egypt's main gauge was the worst performer, seeing the biggest losses in more than a year on concern that a halt in Israeli gas production will cause fuel shortages. In Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul gauge's declines were limited by Aramco, which gained on higher oil prices. Israel's benchmark ended higher as military supplier Elbit Systems Ltd. are weighing the fresh geopolitical risks at a time when they are also grappling with destabilized global trade relationships, the prospect of new tariffs from US President Donald Trump, economic cross-currents, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and rising political tensions in the US amid protests. ADVERTISEMENT 'Unless oil stays elevated and drives inflation higher, this is more likely a pause than a panic as other narratives are driving the market,' said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer, Roundhill Investments. 'It may present a buying opportunity, but with markets having rallied sharply off recent lows, gains from here will be harder to come by.' 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NZ Herald
12-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
US, China agree to reduce tariffs for 90 days: Joint statement
On Monday the two said they would slash their levies to cool tensions and give officials time to resolve their differences. In a joint statement the US side said it would reduce tolls to 30 percent while Chinese tariffs would be cut to 10 percent. That came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and international trade representative Li Chenggang in the first known talks since Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcement. 'We've made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks,' Bessent told reporters, while the White House has hailed what it called a new 'trade deal'. China's He said the atmosphere in the talks was 'candid, in-depth and constructive', adding that they were 'an important first step'. Asian markets jumped, with Hong Kong up more than three percent while Shanghai also enjoyed healthy buying interest. Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei and Wellington were all in the green. London, Paris and Frankfurt all rose more than one percent. US futures surged more than one percent. Mumbai jumped more than three percent after India and Pakistan agreed a ceasefire at the weekend following four days of missile, drone and artillery attacks between the two countries which killed at least 60 people and sent thousands fleeing. Pakistan's stock exchange rocketed more than nine percent. Oil prices jumped more than three percent owing to speculation easing China-US tensions would help demand. The dollar also advanced one percent against the euro and yen. Gold, which rallied last month over a rush to safe havens, extended losses. 'The initial reaction to the weekend US-China talks (is) predictably encouraging,' said Chris Weston at Pepperstone. However, Karsten Junius at Bank J. Safra Sarasin was cautious. 'We expect financial markets to remain volatile over the coming months, as they have almost fully priced out negative economic surprises and could once again be disrupted by more serious obstacles in trade negotiations,' he said in a commentary. 'In all likelihood, things may still get worse before they get better.' Investors are also awaiting the release this week of data on US inflation and retail sales, which will provide a fresh snapshot of the world's biggest economy since the tariffs were first unveiled.
