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China Has an Arctic Strategy. America Needs One, Too
China Has an Arctic Strategy. America Needs One, Too

Newsweek

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Newsweek

China Has an Arctic Strategy. America Needs One, Too

With the return of the Trump administration, the concept of great power competition has seen something of a renaissance. To its credit, the view of China as a predatory global player that emerged during President Donald Trump's first term in office was perpetuated by his successor, Joe Biden. Even so, recent months have seen strategic competition between the United States and China in everything from strategic minerals to trade expand to virtually every corner of the world. But one place where real competition hasn't yet kicked off in earnest is the Arctic. It's certainly true that the Trump White House grasps the strategic importance of the region; during its first term in office, it reopened Arctic waters for drilling as part of a robust America First energy policy, and there's now a broad understanding among administration officials that the area is one of vital national interest. Still, it's fair to say that U.S. attention to the Arctic hasn't kept pace with that of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Aerial view of the icebreaker Kaptain Khlebnikov sailing near Baffin Island which is melting due to global warming. Aerial view of the icebreaker Kaptain Khlebnikov sailing near Baffin Island which is melting due to global warming. Getty Images Back in 2018, the government of Xi Jinping issued its official Arctic strategy. That document framed the PRC as a "Near-Arctic State" and outlined a broad vision for engagement and investment in the region. Since then, China has become a stakeholder in Russian Arctic projects like the Yamal LNG pipeline and a deep-water port in Arkhangelsk. It has made inroads among other Arctic states as well by establishing research facilities in Iceland and Norway's Svalbard peninsula. Studies have estimated total Chinese investments in the Arctic to total in excess of $90 billion to date. To what end is a hotly debated topic. A recent study by Harvard University's Belfer Center has argued that those investments are decidedly more modest than advertised, and less significant than many assume. National security experts, though, warn that the PRC's inroads are the prelude for an expanded, multi-domain strategy designed to make the Arctic a real domain of competition. The stakes are massive because the region is strategically vital for a range of military, economic, and geopolitical reasons. One is the Arctic's growing significance as a maritime trade route. Melting ice and changing climate have opened up new and shorter shipping routes like the North Sea Passage (along Russia's coast) and the Northwest Passage, through Canada's Arctic territories. That has made the Arctic an increasingly important component of global commerce. Over the past decade, the Arctic Council estimates, the number of vessels transiting the area has increased by 37 percent. Another stems from its strategic location. Situated at the center of the Northern Hemisphere, the Arctic is the shortest route between North America, Europe, and Asia. Another strategic competitor, Russia, has established numerous military bases and monitoring stations there, effectively militarizing the "High North." In response, both the United States and NATO have steadily expanded their Arctic presence in recent years. Yet another stake is energy potential. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Arctic holds some 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. That puts it roughly on par with Russia, in terms of energy wealth. "What China is doing in the Arctic should be a wake-up call for us to accelerate the work we started," Julia Nesheiwat told Newsweek. According to Nesheiwat, who served in the last Trump administration, first as U.S. Homeland Security advisor and then as commissioner on the U.S. Arctic Research Commission: "It is a major strategic challenge. We are seeing growing Chinese activity, and increasing collaboration between Russia and China, in an effort to gain access to Arctic resources and minerals." Nesheiwat suggested a series of concrete steps, from expanding the U.S. ice-breaker fleet to enhancing our Arctic diplomacy to stepped-up regional exercises with NATO partner nations. The job won't be easy. The White House currently has an overflowing foreign policy plate, with issues ranging from Russia to the Israel-Hamas war. Nevertheless, Nesheiwat said we need to parlay our understanding of the importance of the Arctic into a real long-term vision for America there. China, after all, clearly has one, and officials in Beijing are working toward making it a reality. If they succeed, it will have real consequence—not just for Arctic security, but for global commerce and economic prosperity more broadly. Ilan Berman is senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C. The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.

China's Arctic involvement ‘highly exaggerated,' Harvard researchers say

time18-07-2025

  • Business

China's Arctic involvement ‘highly exaggerated,' Harvard researchers say

It is apparent that most of this anxiety is about what might be, not what has actually happened, researchers for the Belfer Center for science and international affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard's school of public policy. Their paper, titled Cutting Through Narratives on Chinese Arctic Investments, was published in June. It was written by Arctic researchers Anders Christoffer Edstrøm from Norway, Guðbjörg Ríkey Th. Hauksdóttir from Iceland, and Whitney Lackenbauer of Trent University in Peterborough, Ont. For years, China's Arctic ambitions have faced international scrutiny. In 2013, China was granted observer status at the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental organization of all eight Arctic nations: Canada, the United States, Russia, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden. Enlarge image (new window) A file photo of observers, including China, at an Arctic Council meeting in Oulu, Finland. Photo: Linnea Nordström/Arctic Council Secretariat A few years later, in 2018, Beijing announced its Polar Silk Road strategy. It envisioned China's deeper involvement in Arctic governance along with mineral and scientific exploration of the region. Since then, China has proclaimed itself a near-Arctic state – despite not having any territory in the polar areas – and the country's ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, told Nunatsiaq News last year that Arctic affairs should be a concern of a global village. Since 2003, China is estimated to have invested more than $90 billion above the Arctic Circle, largely in energy and mineral sectors, according to the U.S. House of Representatives committee on foreign affairs estimates in 2022. However, the Harvard researchers say that figure is inflated with unsuccessful investments and projects proposed but not implemented. Our research finds that these numbers are highly exaggerated and often mobilized to support a narrative in which China is successfully 'buying up' the Arctic region, the paper said. Of 57 Chinese investment projects that researchers list, 18 are active and only one is located in Canada. A majority of the projects have been either cancelled or are in question. Of the eight Nordic member nations, only Russia has allowed a significant Chinese presence in its Arctic. Enlarge image (new window) A file photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. Photo: sputnik/afp via getty images / VLADIMIR ASTAPKOVICH In 2022, the two countries signed a joint statement proclaiming a relationship with no limits including joint oversight of traffic along the Northern Sea Route, 5,600-kilometre shipping passage along Russia's Arctic coast line. As well, the countries agreed on joint naval and coast guard exercises in the Bering Sea, and joint air patrols near the coast of Alaska. But when it comes to Canada and the other six like-minded Arctic states, nearly all Chinese investment in the region has failed or stalled. China's footprint in Canada's North only includes a Nunavik nickel mine owned by Jien Canada Mining Ltd. and two mineral development projects in the Yukon and the N.W.T. that have been in stasis for many years. China's investment record in the Canadian North is not strong, and Chinese companies have also seen significant failures, the researchers said. One of those failures was in 2020, when Chinese state-owned Shandong Gold Mining Co. wanted to buy the Hope Bay gold mine complex, 150 kilometres southwest of Cambridge Bay, for $207.4 million. The Canadian government rejected that deal after a national security review. The Harvard researchers say that identifying investments that pose a security risk is a source of debate and division. Arctic states should continue to balance considerations of national interest connected to potential risk, potential economic benefits and societal support before deciding to allow, limit, or reject investments, they wrote.

India's new warfare: Drones, data, and the defence race that can't wait
India's new warfare: Drones, data, and the defence race that can't wait

Time of India

time11-06-2025

  • Time of India

India's new warfare: Drones, data, and the defence race that can't wait

Warfare isn't what it used to be. The enemy might not come with boots and rifles, but with buzzing drone swarms, silent cyberattacks, and AI algorithms calculating their every move. For India, this future is already here. The recent exchange of drone fire between India and Pakistan in May 2025—the most serious clash in decades—marked the beginning of a new era. Both sides unleashed loitering munitions and kamikaze drones . For the first time in South Asia, unmanned aerial vehicles ( UAVs ) became one of the central instruments of conflict. It was a live demonstration of what future conflict looks like. Thousands of UAVs filled the skies. Some watched. Some struck. Others confused enemy sensors or jammed communications. It was the subcontinent's first true drone war—and perhaps the start of a new era. Swarms over Sindoor: When the future arrived early India's 'Operation Sindoor' launched with precision missile strikes on nine terror camps across the Line of Control . But it was the drones that stole the headlines. Loitering munitions like the IAI Harop and kamikaze UAVs from Indian and Israeli origin swarmed across targets. In response, Pakistan retaliated with Turkish Bayraktar TB2s and Chinese Wing Loong IIs. Each side deployed over 1,000 drones. Not just to attack, but to observe, disrupt, and deceive. 'This marks a significant shift in the character of South Asian warfare,' said Rabia Akhtar, visiting fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center in a report by Foreign Policy. 'Drones weren't just tools of surveillance. They were instruments of strategic messaging—fast, low-risk, and deadly.' Live Events For the Indian Army , the learning curve was sharp. 'Managing the airspace with so many flying objects, jammers on both sides, and other users of airspace will be a huge challenge,' admitted a senior officer in a Deccan Herald report. More than eyes in the sky 'Drones now are not just about surveillance,' said Agnishwar Jayaprakash, founder of Garuda Aerospace . 'They need to carry payloads, drop bombs, and execute kamikaze missions. That requires integration between drone intelligence and explosive intelligence.' Garuda is among a growing list of Indian companies stepping up. The firm, which aims to reach 75% indigenous content in its drones within three years, collaborates with HAL and BEML. They're building UAVs that don't just watch—they think, strike, and survive. Another major player, ideaForge, underlined what's really needed now: consistency. 'Operation Sindoor has rightly placed India's defence-tech startups in the spotlight,' said Ankit Mehta, CEO of ideaForge. 'However, what the sector urgently needs is a clear and consistent procurement pipeline from the government.' He told ET, 'Defence innovation cannot succeed in isolation. It requires clear public-private collaboration and transparency in buying cycles. Above all, the sector's key expectation is consistent demand, ensuring the capabilities we develop are fully utilised when national security needs them most.' Brains behind the bots: AI and autonomy It's not just about flying machines—it's about smart ones. Garuda's systems now use AI and machine learning (ML) for everything from autonomous flight to target recognition and predictive fleet analytics. 'AI and ML are at the core of our drone technology,' the company states, noting over 10 lakh flight hours across its fleets. Yet, the challenges are real. A senior defence company senior official warned: 'Nobody is going to give us the latest AI or drone technology. We have to develop it ourselves, customised to our terrain, our needs, and our systems.' India's strategy runs on two AI tracks—civilian and defence. But while the software side has matured, the hardware story is bleak. 'We're still dependent on imports for edge-AI processors and high-performance computing chips,' the expert added. Without homegrown AI hardware, software superiority won't be enough. The invisible war: Cyber and electronic frontlines Cyber-electronic warfare doesn't make headlines—but it can end wars before they begin. From GPS spoofing to malware that freezes command centres, the dangers are growing. 'A cyberattack is like putting a pin in your brain,' the defence company senior official said. 'Your body—your assets—remain intact, but you're paralysed.' India's communication systems, increasingly digitised and centralised, make this a critical vulnerability. The consensus is clear: India needs a dedicated Cyber Command , built like those of the US or Israel. One that can detect, defend, and—when needed—disrupt. Not just Make in India, but Create in India. India's defence posture is shifting from manpower-heavy to tech-intensive. But this transition can't succeed with assembly lines alone. It requires invention. 'Make in India is not enough,' the defence company senior official said. 'We need to 'Create in India'. Designing, developing, and producing end-to-end solutions domestically is the only way forward.' This means accepting risk. Tolerating failure. Funding early-stage ideas without expecting instant ROI. India's defence R&D ecosystem—from DRDO and CDAC to private firms and academia—must align under one goal: self-reliant innovation. Cost, capability and the counter-drone race India isn't just building drones—it's building ways to stop them. During Operation Sindoor , Bharat Electronics Limited's revamped L-70 anti-air guns played a starring role. So did electromagnetic jammers and homegrown detection systems. "You can't shoot down a ₹20 lakh drone with a ₹5 crore missile,' the expert said. 'That's not sustainable.' DRDO has licensed six Indian companies to mass-produce counter-drone systems. And it's not stopping at the skies. Underwater unmanned vehicles (UUVs) are next, along with radars that can detect swarm attacks without triggering friendly fire. Upward trajectory: The Space race By the time a hypersonic missile is detected, it might already be too late. That's why India is looking skyward. Space-based early warning systems—constellations of satellites using synthetic aperture radar (SAR)—will become the new first responders. A recent ISRO launch failed to deploy one such payload. Still, optimism persists. 'The setbacks are technical, not strategic,' the official said. 'We will overcome them.' In fact, Garuda Aerospace sees crossover potential, 'Our strong R&D in drone autonomy can also feed into future space-based autonomous systems.' Collaboration: The four pillars The senior defence company senior official envisions a four-pillar model: Academia, Startups, R&D Institutions, and Industry. Together, they must build both the ideas and the tools India needs. But many startups face a familiar frustration. 'You involve us in development, we invest time and money thinking production will follow—and then nothing comes,' the expert noted. 'That's demoralising.' Consistency and continuity in defence orders could change that. Export or perish India's defence budget is vast—yet most of it funds salaries and pensions. Little goes toward future tech. 'If the government can't buy everything, it must help us sell,' the expert argued. Countries like Armenia and Morocco have already begun ordering Indian systems. But exports require more than product—they need deals, diplomacy, and government-backed financing. 'Look at South Korea,' he said. 'They started with nothing and are now exporting advanced systems. We must do the same.' The war before the war Drones, cyber tools, and AI aren't just weapons. They're deterrents. And diplomats. Used well, they allow targeted responses without escalation. Used poorly, they could provoke catastrophe—especially in a nuclear-armed neighbourhood. As drone warfare expert James Patton Rogers noted, Drones allow militaries 'to limit strikes to military targets, test defences, and provide a lower escalation response.' But that flexibility comes with temptation. If war is easier to start, will it be harder to stop? India's answer must be bold, strategic—and unshakably local. The new war has already begun. And this time, it won't wait.

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