Latest news with #BillHarwood
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Here's The Likelihood Of An Asteroid Slamming Into Earth In 2032, According To Scientists
NASA researchers say an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 now has about a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, a decrease from a record high estimate the day prior. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said Tuesday that 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of impact, but astronomers lowered the estimate on Wednesday after darker skies and increased visibility allowed them to take a better look at the asteroid. However, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the likelihood to be at 2.8% as of Wednesday. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 330 feet wide, and astronomers believe it could plow into the planet on Dec. 22, 2032. There is also a 0.8% chance it could slam into our moon that day instead, according to NASA. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) said the following regions on Earth are at risk of being hit by the asteroid in 2032: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. The risks to Earth if the asteroid does collide with the planet are uncertain at the moment as its mass and potential impact location are unknown. As The New York Times notes, this could lead to a variety of possible scenarios from leveling a city to landing in the ocean and causing relatively little harm. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said that the impact would be 'catastrophic' if the asteroid landed in a populated area, but the damage wouldn't be global. 'It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs,' Harwood said. 'It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen.' While 2024 YR4′s risk level on Tuesday was the highest ever recorded, it's overwhelmingly likely that the asteroid misses Earth. However, the IAWN notifies the public of an asteroid anytime there is a 1% chance or above of impact, which is extremely rare. The last time an asteroid met this threshold was in 2004, when asteroid Apophis' probability of hitting Earth in 2029 was raised to 2.7%. After its 2004 discovery, astronomers tracked Apophis, estimated to be about 1,100 feet across, to better understand its path. NASA now says there is no risk of Apophis striking Earth for at least a century. 2024 YR4 was discovered last December, when it had an estimated 1% chance of crashing into the planet in 2032. Passing the planet once every four years, the space rock blew past us in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2028 without incident. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,' Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, said at the time. 'But it deserves attention.' The asteroid will no longer be visible starting in April, but experts intend to study it using the James Webb Space Telescope in the meantime. It will be visible again in June 2028. 'As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,' NASA said in a planetary defense blog post published on Feb. 7. 'It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.' According to NASA, asteroids were born during the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. There are currently 1,362,002 of them known to NASA — many of them ranging from as tiny as 3 feet to as large as 329 miles. Besides 2024 YR4, there are not currently other asteroids with an impact probability above 1% at the moment, according to NASA. The good news is that NASA demonstrated that it's possible to alter an asteroid's trajectory with a first-of-its-kind test conducted in 2021 and 2022. In the experimental mission, known as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, experts successfully changed the path of space rock after launching a spacecraft into the object. The method is known as 'kinetic impact.' Newly Spotted Asteroid Has Tiny Chance Of Hitting Earth In 2032 Asteroid Will Pass In Front Of Bright Star Betelgeuse To Produce A Rare Eclipse Visible To Millions NASA Discovers Asteroid Has Its Own Tiny Moon
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Here's The Likelihood Of An Asteroid Slamming Into Earth In 2032, According To Scientists
NASA researchers say an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 now has about a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, a decrease from a record high estimate the day prior. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said Tuesday that 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of impact, but astronomers lowered the estimate on Wednesday after darker skies and increased visibility allowed them to take a better look at the asteroid. However, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the likelihood to be at 2.8% as of Wednesday. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 330 feet wide, and astronomers believe it could plow into the planet on Dec. 22, 2032. There is also a 0.8% chance it could slam into our moon that day instead, according to NASA. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) said the following regions on Earth are at risk of being hit by the asteroid in 2032: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. The risks to Earth if the asteroid does collide with the planet are uncertain at the moment as its mass and potential impact location are unknown. As The New York Times notes, this could lead to a variety of possible scenarios from leveling a city to landing in the ocean and causing relatively little harm. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said that the impact would be 'catastrophic' if the asteroid landed in a populated area, but the damage wouldn't be global. 'It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs,' Harwood said. 'It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen.' While 2024 YR4′s risk level on Tuesday was the highest ever recorded, it's overwhelmingly likely that the asteroid misses Earth. However, the IAWN notifies the public of an asteroid anytime there is a 1% chance or above of impact, which is extremely rare. The last time an asteroid met this threshold was in 2004, when asteroid Apophis' probability of hitting Earth in 2029 was raised to 2.7%. After its 2004 discovery, astronomers tracked Apophis, estimated to be about 1,100 feet across, to better understand its path. NASA now says there is no risk of Apophis striking Earth for at least a century. 2024 YR4 was discovered last December, when it had an estimated 1% chance of crashing into the planet in 2032. Passing the planet once every four years, the space rock blew past us in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2028 without incident. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,' Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, said at the time. 'But it deserves attention.' The asteroid will no longer be visible starting in April, but experts intend to study it using the James Webb Space Telescope in the meantime. It will be visible again in June 2028. 'As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,' NASA said in a planetary defense blog post published on Feb. 7. 'It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.' According to NASA, asteroids were born during the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. There are currently 1,362,002 of them known to NASA — many of them ranging from as tiny as 3 feet to as large as 329 miles. Besides 2024 YR4, there are not currently other asteroids with an impact probability above 1% at the moment, according to NASA. The good news is that NASA demonstrated that it's possible to alter an asteroid's trajectory with a first-of-its-kind test conducted in 2021 and 2022. In the experimental mission, known as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, experts successfully changed the path of space rock after launching a spacecraft into the object. The method is known as 'kinetic impact.' Newly Spotted Asteroid Has Tiny Chance Of Hitting Earth In 2032 Asteroid Will Pass In Front Of Bright Star Betelgeuse To Produce A Rare Eclipse Visible To Millions NASA Discovers Asteroid Has Its Own Tiny Moon
Yahoo
19-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
An asteroid could hit Earth in 2032, NASA says. Here's what to know.
An asteroid nearly the size of a football field now has roughly a 3% chance of hitting Earth in about eight years. Such an impact has the potential for city-level devastation, depending on where it strikes. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said if it landed in a populated area, it would "be truly catastrophic," but the effects would be localized. "It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs," Harwood said. "It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen." Scientists aren't panicking yet, but they are watching closely. "At this point, it's 'Let's pay a lot of attention, let's get as many assets as we can observing it,'" Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told the AFP news agency. What we know about 2024 YR4 and its chances of hitting Earth Dubbed 2024 YR4, the asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Based on its brightness, astronomers estimate it is between 130 and 300 feet wide. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the European Space Agency said in a statement. By New Year's Eve, it had landed on the desk of Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at U.S. space agency NASA, as an object of concern. "You get observations, they drop off again. This one looked like it had the potential to stick around," she told AFP. The risk assessment kept climbing, and on January 29, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global planetary defense collaboration, issued a memo. According to the latest calculations from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, there is a 3.1% chance the asteroid will strike Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is "a close encounter" that warrants attention from astronomers and the public. If it does hit, possible impact sites include over the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, the IAWN memo states. 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical, four-year orbit, swinging through the inner planets before shooting past Mars and out toward Jupiter. For now, it's zooming away from Earth, and its next close pass will not come until 2028. Scientists will be able to get another look at the asteroid then, Harwood said, and determine its orbit and trajectory. Betts said, "The odds are very good that not only will this not hit Earth, but at some point in the next months to few years, that probability will go to zero." A similar scenario unfolded in 2004 with Apophis, an asteroid initially projected to have a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029. Further observations ruled out an impact. "City killer" category The most infamous asteroid impact occurred 66 million years ago, when a six-mile-wide space rock triggered a global winter, wiping out the dinosaurs and 75 percent of all species. By contrast, 2024 YR4 falls into the "city killer" category. "If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs," said Betts. The best modern comparison is the 1908 Tunguska Event, when an asteroid or comet fragment measuring 30-50 meters exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 770 square miles. Like that impactor, 2024 YR4 would be expected to blow up in the sky, rather than leaving a crater on the ground. "We can calculate the energy... using the mass and the speed," said Andrew Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. For 2024 YR4, the explosion from an airburst would equal around eight megatons of TNT — more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. If it explodes over the ocean, the impact would be less concerning, unless it happens near a coastline triggering a tsunami. Time to prepare The good news, experts stress, is that we have plenty of time to prepare. Rivkin led the investigation for NASA's 2022 DART mission, which successfully nudged an asteroid off its course using a spacecraft — a strategy known as a "kinetic impactor." The target asteroid posed no threat to Earth, making it an ideal test subject. "I don't see why it wouldn't work" again, he said. The bigger question is whether major nations would fund such a mission if their own territory was not under threat. Other, more experimental ideas exist. Lasers could vaporize part of the asteroid to create a thrust effect, pushing it off course. A "gravity tractor," a large spacecraft that slowly tugs the asteroid away using its own gravitational pull, has also been theorized. If all else fails, the long warning time means authorities could evacuate the impact zone. "Nobody should be scared about this," said Fast. "We can find these things, make these predictions and have the ability to plan." Still, NASA tracks close approaches and calculates the odds of those space rocks — including asteroids, meteors and meteorites — impacting Earth. "The majority of near-Earth objects have orbits that don't bring them very close to Earth, and therefore pose no risk of impact, but a small fraction of them – called potentially hazardous asteroids – require more attention," according to the website of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which manages the center dedicated to studying near-Earth objects for NASA. Trump administration fires thousands of U.S. Forest and National Park Service workers DOGE "receipts" show approved spending, not evidence of fraud Inside the court hearing on Eric Adams' dropped charges
Yahoo
19-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Asteroid's odds of hitting Earth go up as NASA tasked with studying it
An asteroid has a small chance of hitting Earth less than eight years from now, and astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to study it. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have increased since then, according to NASA and the European Space Agency. The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say the risk of it making contact with Earth is remote — with NASA giving it a 3.1% chance and the European agency 2.8% — when it eventually reaches this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered. The European Space Agency in January placed the asteroid's odds of hitting Earth at roughly 1%, before NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated the risk was more like 1.6% at the tail end of the month. Officials at both agencies acknowledge the unlikelihood of 2024 YR4 causing problems, with the ESA saying that current risk estimates are probably unnecessarily high because the people studying it are still uncertain about some of the asteroid's key features. Right now, astronomers estimate the asteroid is between 40 meters and 90 meters wide, which is roughly 130 to 295 feet wide. For reference, an American football field measures 100 yards — or 300 feet — long. "It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4," the ESA said in a statement Monday, which noted "the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid." On the slim chance the asteroid does strike Earth in 2032, its impacts would be localized. But 2024 YR4 has nonetheless received a Level 3 rating, out of 10, on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is a fairly rare distinction meant to represent "a close encounter" that warrants public and scientific attention. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the ESA said a previous statement about 2024 YR4. If the asteroid does hit the planet, NASA said its potential impact sites could include areas over the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said if it landed in a populated area, it would "be truly catastrophic," but the effects would be localized. "It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs," Harwood said. "It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen." In order to gain a greater understanding of the asteroid and better prepare for whatever is to come, astronomers will use the Webb Telescope to collect data on its size that could not be observed as accurately without the telescope's technology, the ESA said. Where scientists are generally limited to observing the asteroid based on the amount of visible light it reflects from the sun, with brighter light typically signaling a larger asteroid, the Webb telescope can calculate its infrared emissions, allowing for more accurate estimates. Webb will begin studying the asteroid in March, when it appears brightest, and again in May, according to the ESA. 2024 YR4 will disappear from view for a while after that, and astronomers will take time to interpret the telescope's data and determine what it could mean for the asteroid's route before it shows itself again in 2028. Trump administration fires thousands of U.S. Forest and National Park Service workers DOGE "receipts" show approved spending, not evidence of fraud Deadly small plane collision in Arizona, officials say
CBS News
19-02-2025
- Science
- CBS News
An asteroid could hit Earth in 2032, NASA says. Here's what to know about the potential "city killer."
An asteroid nearly the size of a football field now has roughly a 3% chance of hitting Earth in about eight years. Such an impact has the potential for city-level devastation, depending on where it strikes. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said if it landed in a populated area, it would "be truly catastrophic," but the effects would be localized. "It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs," Harwood said. "It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen." Scientists aren't panicking yet, but they are watching closely. "At this point, it's 'Let's pay a lot of attention, let's get as many assets as we can observing it,'" Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told the AFP news agency. What we know about 2024 YR4 and its chances of hitting Earth Dubbed 2024 YR4, the asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Based on its brightness, astronomers estimate it is between 130 and 300 feet wide. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the European Space Agency said in a statement. By New Year's Eve, it had landed on the desk of Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at U.S. space agency NASA, as an object of concern. "You get observations, they drop off again. This one looked like it had the potential to stick around," she told AFP. The risk assessment kept climbing, and on January 29, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global planetary defense collaboration, issued a memo. According to the latest calculations from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, there is a 3.1% chance the asteroid will strike Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is "a close encounter" that warrants attention from astronomers and the public. If it does hit, possible impact sites include over the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, the IAWN memo states. 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical, four-year orbit, swinging through the inner planets before shooting past Mars and out toward Jupiter. For now, it's zooming away from Earth, and its next close pass will not come until 2028. Scientists will be able to get another look at the asteroid then, Harwood said, and determine its orbit and trajectory. Betts said, "The odds are very good that not only will this not hit Earth, but at some point in the next months to few years, that probability will go to zero." A similar scenario unfolded in 2004 with Apophis, an asteroid initially projected to have a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029. Further observations ruled out an impact. "City killer" category The most infamous asteroid impact occurred 66 million years ago, when a six-mile-wide space rock triggered a global winter, wiping out the dinosaurs and 75 percent of all species. By contrast, 2024 YR4 falls into the "city killer" category. "If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs," said Betts. The best modern comparison is the 1908 Tunguska Event, when an asteroid or comet fragment measuring 30-50 meters exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 770 square miles. Like that impactor, 2024 YR4 would be expected to blow up in the sky, rather than leaving a crater on the ground. "We can calculate the energy... using the mass and the speed," said Andrew Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. For 2024 YR4, the explosion from an airburst would equal around eight megatons of TNT — more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. If it explodes over the ocean, the impact would be less concerning, unless it happens near a coastline triggering a tsunami. Time to prepare The good news, experts stress, is that we have plenty of time to prepare. Rivkin led the investigation for NASA's 2022 DART mission, which successfully nudged an asteroid off its course using a spacecraft — a strategy known as a "kinetic impactor." The target asteroid posed no threat to Earth, making it an ideal test subject. "I don't see why it wouldn't work" again, he said. The bigger question is whether major nations would fund such a mission if their own territory was not under threat. Other, more experimental ideas exist. Lasers could vaporize part of the asteroid to create a thrust effect, pushing it off course. A "gravity tractor," a large spacecraft that slowly tugs the asteroid away using its own gravitational pull, has also been theorized. If all else fails, the long warning time means authorities could evacuate the impact zone. "Nobody should be scared about this," said Fast. "We can find these things, make these predictions and have the ability to plan." Still, NASA tracks close approaches and calculates the odds of those space rocks — including asteroids, meteors and meteorites — impacting Earth. "The majority of near-Earth objects have orbits that don't bring them very close to Earth, and therefore pose no risk of impact, but a small fraction of them – called potentially hazardous asteroids – require more attention," according to the website of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which manages the center dedicated to studying near-Earth objects for NASA.
