Latest news with #BitcoinTreasuries
Crypto Insight
13-07-2025
- Business
- Crypto Insight
Bitcoin headed for 36 more public companies by year-end: Blockware
Blockware Intelligence predicts that by the end of 2025, at least 36 more public companies will have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. 'This is just the beginning. In the next 6 months, we expect at least three dozen more public companies to add Bitcoin to their treasury,' Blockware said in its Q3 2025 market update report. This would represent around a 25% increase from the current total of 141 public companies holding Bitcoin, according to the firm's data. Public company Bitcoin adoption surges 120% in 2025 The intelligence unit, which is the research arm of Bitcoin mining company Blockware Solutions, reported that in 2025 alone, the number of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets surged 120%. 'Bitcoin Treasury Companies are the aforementioned 'bridge' connecting equity and debt markets to Bitcoin,' the firm added. According to data, Michael Saylor's Strategy leads the pack with 597,325 BTC, holding approximately 12 times more than the second-largest holder, Bitcoin mining firm MARA Holdings, which has 50,000 BTC. However, Blockware said that the increasing number of companies joining the ranks is either newly established or facing operational challenges. 'The corporate Bitcoin adoption race is mostly being spearheaded by brand new companies or dying companies you've never heard of.' Blockware said this isn't necessarily a negative. 'Companies with struggling core businesses (low growth, dying markets) have a much easier time recognizing the simplicity of investing retained earnings into BTC and earning 40 to 60% CAGR without the operational risks of running a business,' Blockware said. Analyst warns companies considering Bitcoin 'The market is sending a strong signal: securitized Bitcoin exposure is here to stay,' the firm added. Bitwise Asset Management recently reported that corporate interest in Bitcoin reached new highs in the second quarter of 2025, with companies adding a record 159,107 BTC to their balance sheets. However, not everyone is optimistic about the significant number of companies adopting Bitcoin. Glassnode lead analyst James Check recently warned that the easy upside may already be behind new companies entering the space. 'My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect,' Check said on July 4. On June 29, venture capital firm Breed argued in a report that only a few Bitcoin treasury companies will stand the test of time and avoid the vicious 'death spiral' that will impact BTC holding companies that trade close to net asset value (NAV). Meanwhile, crypto trader Saint Pump said in a post on X that 'I'm also pretty confident they'll play a key role in the next bear market.' 'The music stops when the NAV premium starts to slowly fall (or even turn negative with ATMs), and raises become smaller or fail altogether,' the trader added. Source:
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Public Companies Buy More Bitcoin Than ETFs for Third Consecutive Quarter
Publicly traded companies are rapidly building bitcoin (BTC) reserves, buying more of the largest cryptocurrency than U.S. exchange-traded-funds (ETF) for the third straight quarter, according to CNBC. Corporations increased their bitcoin holdings by about 18% in the three months ended June 30, adding roughly 131,000 BTC. The ETF holdings grew 8%, or around 111,000 BTC, based on figures from Bitcoin ETFs still hold the largest stash of bitcoin among single entities, with over 1.4 million BTC, which makes up about 6.8% of bitcoin's capped supply of 21 million, according to CNBC. The last time ETFs surpassed public companies in bitcoin buying was back in third-quarter 2024, before U.S. President Donald Trump secured reelection. In April 2025, despite market volatility from Trump's tariff announcements, public companies expanded their bitcoin holdings by 4% outpacing the 2% growth seen among ETFs, according to CNBC. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
01-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Public companies bought more bitcoin than ETFs did for the third quarter in a row
Corporate treasuries have surpassed ETFs in bitcoin buying for a third consecutive quarter as more companies try to benefit from the MicroStrategy playbook in a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. Public companies acquired about 131,000 coins in the second quarter, growing their bitcoin balance 18%, according to data provider Bitcoin Treasuries. ETFs showed an 8% increase or about 111,000 BTC in the same period. "The institutional buyer who is getting exposure to bitcoin through the ETFs are not buying for the same reason as those public companies who are basically trying to accumulate bitcoin to increase shareholder value at the end of the day," said Nick Marie, head of research at Ecoinometrics. Public company bitcoin holdings increased 4% in April, a tumultuous month after the market was rocked by President Donald Trump's initial tariffs announcement, versus 2% for ETFs, he pointed out. "They don't really care if the price is high or low, they care about growing their bitcoin treasury so they look more attractive to the proxy buyers," Marie added. "It's not so much driven by the macro trend or the sentiment, it's for different reasons. So it becomes a different kind of mechanism that can push bitcoin forward." Bitcoin ETFs, whose collective U.S. launch in January 2024 was one of the most successful ETF debuts in history, still represent the largest holders of bitcoin by entity with more than 1.4 million coins held today, representing about 6.8% of the fixed supply cap of 21 million. Public companies hold about 855,000 coins, or about 4%. The trend reflects the significant regulatory relief the crypto industry broadly is benefiting from under the Trump administration. In March, Trump signed an executive order for a U.S. bitcoin reserve, sending a strong message that the flagship cryptocurrency, which has long been a source of reputation risk among many investors, is here to stay. The last time ETFs outpaced public companies in bitcoin buying was in the third quarter of 2024, before Trump was re-elected. In the second quarter, GameStop began buying bitcoin, after its board approved it as a treasury reserve asset in March; health-care company KindlyMD merged with Nakamoto, a bitcoin investment company founded by crypto entrepreneur David Bailey; and investor Anthony Pompliano's ProCap, kicked off its own bitcoin purchasing program and is going public through a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. Strategy, recently rebranded from MicroStrategy, is still the main behemoth in the bitcoin treasury game. The company pioneered the strategy that more than 140 public companies globally are now emulating. It holds about 597,000 BTC, and is followed by the bitcoin miner Mara Holdings, which has almost 50,000 coins. "It's going to be very hard to catch Strategy's scale," said Ben Werkman, chief investment officer at Swan Bitcoin. "They're going to be the preferred landing spot for institutional capital because of the deep liquidity around their equity, while these smaller equities are going to be really good risk returns for retail investors and smaller institutions that want more of that upside – that initial growth that comes in kicking off the strategy – because a lot of people missed it with MicroStrategy." Marie suggested that 10 years from now, there probably won't be so many companies committed to the bitcoin treasury strategy. Firstly, he said, the more that enter the category, the more diluted the activity at each firm becomes. Plus, bitcoin may be so normalized by then that proxy buyers are no longer constrained by rules and mandates around direct exposure to bitcoin. "You can think about this wave as a bunch of companies that are trying to benefit from this arbitrage," Marie said. Werkman pointed out that most investors that are attracted to bitcoin treasury companies today already have a thesis around bitcoin. For them, leveraged bitcoin equities are likely how they try to outperform bitcoin itself, the foundational component of their investments. "What people really like about these companies, and why they like to get into these smaller companies, is because they can do something that the investors holding spot bitcoin can't do: go and accumulate more bitcoin on your behalf because they have access to the capital markets and can issue securities," Werkman said. There's also likely to be a fair number of companies that convert their existing treasury holdings to bitcoin without pursuing leverage the way Strategy does, Werkman noted. "They've got that ability to generate more and more value behind their shares, backed by bitcoin, plus whatever the operations of the company are generating. It's a unique value proposition," he said.
Forbes
10-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
The Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Playbook -For Financial Leaders
Bitcoin treasuries have proliferated in 2025. Bitcoin corporate treasuries (BCTs) have proliferated in 2025. Companies can see the dollar weakening, global tensions rising, and monetary policy growing increasingly unpredictable. There are a broad range of bitcoin corporate treasury company types, from pure play acquisition vehicles to operating companies focused on wholly different industries. Beyond this, there are public and private companies with different financial tools available to them. Within the public domain, there is further delineation between market participants, depending on the liquidity of their stock and the accompanying derivatives market. Further, companies have different strategies for differentiation, risk tolerance, and messaging. All of these factors and more play a role in the tactical decisions made by BCTs. Define Goals Make USD or BTC? First, a company must know if their true goal is to accumulate USD or BTC. If USD, then the firm will approach trading and retention of the BTC differently. This could include a willingness to hedge downside and to sell BTC during certain market events. In addition, the use of btc-secured loans may also change in their appeal. The risk of liquidation into USD changes depending on this goal. Further, the dollar value of a public company's stock will likely also be strongly effected by adopting a BTC treasury. The aggressiveness of selling shares for equity holders may also be a function of which asset you choose to measure wealth with. Grow mNAV or BPS or something else? Pioneered by Strategy, a number of companies have started to share their holdings with metrics like mNAV and bitcoin per share. These are ways of expressing the degree of leverage and bitcoin exposure a company offers. In our opinion, this metric is somewhat misleading as shareholders do not have a direct claim on bitcoin held in a corporate treasury, but nevertheless, it is common practice. There is no right goal here. Largely, these metrics are a marketing exercise used to differentiate from competitors. As such, a company needs to determine what metrics it thinks matter most for its investor base. There are a slew of other metrics that could be a focus. This is all new and room exists for innovation. Metaplanet provides clear reporting info on their website. Risk Tolerance Corporate treasury leaders need to also understand how much risk they can tolerate. Volatility is a feature of bitcoin. This can lead to rapid gains as measured in USD, but also drawdowns. Companies moving in this direction need to understand how variation in price can affect the ability to meet operational expenses. The volatility will also filter into the share price of public companies. Are shareholders ready for this kind of experience? Are the leaders of the company confident in their position during uncertainty? Current Financial Position The answer to this question may largely come down to the financial strength of the company. Its much easier to have conviction when you rest on solid financial footing. Cash On Hand Does the company intend to retain some USD? How much of existing cash are they looking to convert? Revenue This may be a function of the amount of revenue the company produces. One of the challenges of bitcoin is that it has no cash flow, like gold. As such, paying expenses will require other income streams, a sale of bitcoin, or intelligent trading to put the bitcoin to work. Is there some strategy in place for converting income to bitcoin? Having clear policy will result in better decision making during times of market uncertainty. Profitability The sad truth is that most companies that have transitioned to btc treasuries have done so because their main business was failing. If you look at the historic income of companies like Strategy, GameStop, and Metaplanet, you will find declining returns that led to a sharp pivot. While this may work for early adopters with strong conviction, the time for this may have already passed. Companies taking this approach will benefit from either a strong core business that can provide a foundation for growth, a differentiated approach to accumulating BTC (like Nakamoto or Strive), or both. Alternatively, companies can be very lean, focusing purely on financial engineering to accumulating more btc by accessing capital in public markets. BTC on Hand Another determinant of treasury strategy stems from the current BTC position of the firm. Companies already holding substantial BTC can branch out to more diversified offerings. Most obviously, Strategy has rolled out a number of debt and convert instruments that address different aspects of capital markets investors. Effectively, this is a way of selling volatility across different risk appetites to the market. In addition, btc-secured loans can be another tool for those already holding btc. Miners often take these loans to finance additional growth and to make additional btc acquisitions. Private or Public Private companies and public ones have different considerations and opportunities for a btc treasury. Most simply, private companies have greater freedom and ease to adopt bitcoin into their finances while public ones often have greater access to capital markets but greater disclosure requirements. If Private Cap Table The ability for a private company to hold btc will come down to control. If ownership is highly concentrated, then the company can do whatever the majority owners and board dictate. Go Public Plans? Does the company intend to go public at some point in the future? This will require diligent financial records and a clear history of any btc purchases prior to going public. Debt Available? Lastly, private companies tend to have less access to scalable debt instruments. Nevertheless, it is possible to sell convertible notes or take out lines of credit. It's important to make sure a company does not agree to unserviceable debt that could jeopardize the long term health of the company. If Public Public companies have the most tools at their disposal to execute on a scalable btc treasury approach. Trading Vol The lifeblood of these strategies stems from speculation on the stock. The market cap of the company can exceed the book value of the bitcoin on its balance sheet. This occurs via a combination of speculation of future growth, pure marketing hype, and other income sources of the business that justify a higher valuation. This volatility allows for the company to sell both equity and debt into the market. Derivatives Market The ultimate goal of a pubco btc company should be to produce a robust derivatives market. With sufficient volume, a slew of additional strategies become available that offer low risk participation for institutional investors. For fixed income and private credit firms, a derivatives market allows them to purchase debt in a company and capture the delta using short futures and options positions to offset their long exposure. This is a powerful combination at the heart of Strategy's fundraising success with 0% debt. Convertible Debt? Even without this derivatives market, convertible debt sales will be attractive to some investors. This offers buyers optionality, with debt available that still offers potential upside. Without derivatives markets, it will be more difficult to find 0% debt. Effectively, this debt is like a future at the money sale of equity, with dilution occurring to shareholders if the stock is successful. Companies with strong income will be more able to sell debt since their ability to service the debt will be greater. ATM Strategy Lastly, companies can simply sell more shares into the market for USD they can use to purchase BTC. This is another method of capitalizing on speculation and volatility. Companies engaging in this approach need to keep a close eye on their target mNAV. Overselling will kill momentum of the stock and break trust with committed shareholders. The sale of shares can be done methodically, looking at metrics like trading volume and market book depth to assess how much to sell and when. Additional Strategies Additional creative strategies have started to emerge for companies to enter into the space. This is a natural progression as companies compete for mindshare and investment. Leaders would be wise to not make overly risky decisions that will fail during an inevitable pull back in btc price. Jurisdictional Arbitrage - Nakamoto Nakamoto recently raised $710MM for their SPAC. The company aims to launch more pubcos across the world to run the 'Strategy' strategy of bitcoin treasury adoption. The firm has been heavily involved with Metaplanet and already owns several other listed companies. This allows the company to offer centralized services with greater efficiency. Most importantly, they can tap into foreign capital markets that may have limits on their ability to access other btc treasury plays. Activist Takeovers - Strive Strive is an asset manager that raised $750MM for bitcoin 'alpha strategies.' Though their full plans are not yet public, the company intends to take over companies with stocks trading below the value of their balance sheet and pivot them into btc treasury companies, stripping away other business functions and, at the minimum, capturing the delta between their assets and share price. In addition, the company will engage in more aggressive trading strategies Multi-Product Tranches - Strategy As discussed before, Strategy has rolled out several variations of debt and equity exposure on their stock. These independent ticker symbols offer investors different types of risk exposure and protections that meet different flavors of investment. They have coupled this with ATM shares to build a fundraising juggernaut. Their robust derivatives market and investor base allows them to create these more granular products. Active Management - MARA Wisely, MARA has started to put their bitcoin to work. They announced last year a lending program to generate income. In addition, they announced in May a partnership with Two Prime, my company, to generate yield via derivatives trading as well. In concert, this allows MARA to generate additional income from their assets with measured risk. Hedging Though not popular in speculative circles, companies could consider responsibly hedging their position. Though this has the potential to cap upside, it can be a method of accumulating btc in a downturn and of staying in business while others perish. There is likely an investor type that wants more risk-managed exposure to bitcoin with controlled downside beta. Lending Two flavors of lending are available. Like MARA, firms can lend out their btc unsecured for a yield. In addition, firms can use BTC as collateral to take out USD loans. This can reduce the tax burden of selling BTC. The cash can be used for a broad array of purposes, including buying more BTC. That being said, leveraged exposure to BTC is usually more efficiently achieved through futures markets. Risk-Defined Asset Management Uniquely, Deribit offers derivatives markets with BTC available as margin. This means that BTC holders can trade options and futures contracts while still holding the BTC. Profits are paid out as BTC as well. Firms like mine Two Prime, with experience trading volatility, can produce high-sharpe returns while using defined-risk trades. Others offering derivatives products include NYDIG and Wave Financial. Though no losses are never guaranteed, trade structures can guarantee a max loss of a position, using things like call and put spreads to cap downside. These are low-margin strategies often deployed by public markets, including many in the oil and gas industries. Financial Services Lastly, these treasury services can grow quite complex. Smaller firms will need to outsource these services. PubCos than can prove out strong solutions can also look at servicing others in the industry. Lending and trading programs as well as effective ATM sales can all be provided as a turn-key solution to new entrants. Large energy companies like Exxon have already proven this approach in energy markets. Recommendations and Consensus BTC is a polarizing and volatile industry. Financial matters are not the only aspect of decision making, especially for large corporations. Recommendations and consensus are critical aspects to succeeding as BTC is sure to test even the most devout believers. True Goals and Motivations Must Be Understood and Accepted By Leadership The roots of bitcoin come from libertarian believers with strong beliefs. Many have held BTC from $1 to $100,000, due to a lack of faith in the current financial system. New entrants likely do not have the same conviction. Before going down this path, it's important to understand motivations. Is it a desperate pivot for a failing company? Is it to make USD as quickly as possible? Is it to accumulate BTC long term? All of these answers are perfectly acceptable, but must be known to guide decision making. Planning for Volatility Bitcoin is not a smooth ride. It can move 30% in a week. Corporations need to have clarity on how they respond to these market moves. Do We Ever Sell BTC? Does a big drawn down or move up result in taking profits? This may be a financially rational move, but also a negative signal to shareholders looking for leverage. Do We Buy Back Shares? If mNAV falls below 0, as Grayscale's Trust famously did from 2022 - 2024, what does the company do? Logically, the company should sell btc and buy shares if the goal is to increase their bitcoin per share metric. However, again, this may not satisfy investors and could contribute to a downward spiral in price. Do We Change Tact in Variable Market Regimes? Three markets exist for bitcoin and stocks - Down, Flat, Up. Different strategies function well in different market regimes. Selling ATM shares into a bear market may prove challenging. Selling bitcoin volatility into a bull market could prove fatal. A firm should ask how they would approach these variable regimes since clear decision making is difficult during market stresses. Hedging - Oil and Gas Antecedents Oil and Gas industries are the most apt analogy to bitcoin. Bitcoin miners convert electricity into bitcoin and compete to do this as cost efficiently as possible. They produce a commodity that can fluctuate in price. If you look at the history of these markets, these companies only truly begin to flourish when they started using derivatives to manage cash flows with predictability. This may seem unpalatable to bitcoin speculators, but also can prevent many negative consequences we have seen for bitcoin treasuries of the past. The Future More companies will adopt hedging strategies in the future. It will become easier to find financing for those that do protect their downside. This will allow for greater scalability of these companies as the market consolidates. Companies would be wise to evaluate true OpEX of their business and ensure a downside move won't end the company. ATM Strategy A successful ATM strategy is a function of understanding mNAV goals and trading volume of a stock. By selling via TWAP and VWAP algos during peak hours, the impact of sales can be reduced. Additionally, clearly stated goals of mNAV can help shareholders have greater trust in the program. Ultimately, this is a high risk approach that can fray trust if used overly aggressively. Debt Strategy Understanding what debt types are available to a company can help determine growth plans. Very few companies will be able to completely replicate the Strategy approach due to limited derivatives markets. Nevertheless, debt will be available. Convertible notes are essentially an additional lever of dilution, just with a delay. The terms of debt and what happens in the event of default are critical focus areas. This area will definitely result in the collapse of some treasuries in the future, whereby onerous terms will force companies to sell and/or interest rates will become too costly to sustain during a bear market. This can create a death spiral of loss of investor trust, share selling, and forced btc selling. Relation to Additional Business Lines Companies should also ask if a BTC treasury is being created to support the business or if the business' income is in place to support a BTC treasury. The use of funds and strategies around cash needs will largely depend on this decision. Public Communications Especially for PubCos, attention is a major asset. Communicating strongly about a company's approach to BTC treasury as well as what is differentiated is essential to success. Recently, we saw GameStop fail at this, only partially dipping into the market with a relatively small buy relative to their balance sheet. Further, the CEO gave a lukewarm interview that didn't excite retail buyers. As a result, share prices fell over 10% on the day of the announcement. With over 80 public companies now adopting a BTC treasury strategy, consistent and clear communication that taps into the culture of the investors you wish to work with is an essential aspect of execution. Implementation Custody BTC needs to be held securely somewhere. Typically, US companies must keep assets at qualified custodian. This includes banks, broker/dealers, trust companies, and other regulated financial entity types. Beyond fees, it's important to understand the custodians claim on your btc. If they go bankrupt, do they have title of your btc? Do they have insurance for risk of loss? There are many nuances to this that have resulted in unexpected issues for creditors in the past. Financial Controls With both cash and btc, standard security practices need to be followed. Multiple signatories on any asset movements as well as third party audits will be essential components of trust. Active Management If deciding to engage in active management of the btc, be it lending or trading, firms can either hire for roles internally or look to specialized asset managers in the space. It's critical to understand the risks involved with this. On the lending side, firms are taking counterparty risk. The size of borrowers' balance sheets and use of the BTC are important aspects of a diligence process. Duration and sizing must be carefully managed as well. On the active management side, defining goals and understanding the regulatory status of a manager are starting points. If done well, groups can generate additional btc with defined-risk losses. However, few firms have proven this out at sufficient scale. OTC Purchases How you buy BTC can have a big impact on your profitability. Most large purchasers are done via OTC counterparties. It is wise to have a few available so that you can compare pricing. Spreads can vary widely depending on the vendor. In addition, some offer single block purchases whereas others can use TWAP or VWAP algos to leg into positions over a number of hours or days. External Reporting Providing data to shareholders in a timely manner is essential. Strategy does a good job of this. Both bitcoin veterans and those new to investing in the industry are skeptical of companies in the space. Transparency is rewarded. Notably, Strategy does not actually share proof of their assets on the blockchain, meaning the wallet addresses where they keep their assets. This is claimed to be a security issue, but other companies, like Metaplanet, are willing to share this info. Internal Reporting Internal reporting and organized finances must be maintained meticulously. Unlike typical financial assets, bitcoin is a bearer asset. If lost or misplaced, it is gone for good. Tracking the movement of funds and the success of KPIs will help steer a company towards better outcomes. Monitoring Active management of BTC will require additional monitoring. Trading strategies should be compared against risk and yield goals defined prior to commencing. Strategies can be adjusted dynamically based on changes to the company or the market. If engaging in lending, monitoring counterparties must be continually done as well. Quarterly reviews of balance sheets and future plans should be conducted. This goes both for unsecured BTC borrowers and secured BTC lenders. Evaluating Counterparties Bitcoin as an industry is maturing from a retail movement to an institutional one. Unlike most financial products, that come top down from institutions, BTC is unique in that it started on a grassroots level and moved upwards. As such, you will encounter a broad range of quality and integrity within the industry. Companies should aim to work with regulated counterparties. If US companies, it's simpler and safer to work with US firms. Further, anything that sounds too good to be true likely is. Nothing is risk-free and cautious is warranted. Conclusion 2025 has been the year of BTC corporate treasuries. A wide array of approaches and strategies exist for companies looking to enter this industry. Though BTC can offer outsized returns, it poses unique risks and technical requirements not fund in traditional finance. Clear-eyed understanding of what a company's goals are, as well as its strengths and weaknesses, will help guide sound decision making. Implementation of a plan, using strong counterparties in cost-efficient ways plays a decisive role in executing successfully. Though there will be errors and blow-ups in the future, BTC corporate treasuries are here to stay. Early adopters that can navigate this field well will reap the rewards. Disclosure: My company, Two Prime, recently switched to a bitcoin-only strategy and is working with partners that have bitcoin corporate treasuries.
CNBC
31-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
ETFs and corporate treasuries should support bitcoin's uptrend in June as tariff uncertainty lingers
In the tug of war between the macroeconomic and crypto adoption stories, blockchain adoption is starting to taking over the bitcoin narrative. Institutions and corporations combined to drive up bitcoin in May. The cryptocurrency ended the month about 10% higher, its second straight monthly rise, driven by strong inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds and continued purchases of bitcoin by corporate treasury departments. Bitcoin ETFs saw $5.6 billion in inflows this month, when the number of bitcoin held by public companies grew 4% to $85.6 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries . Investors expect the trend to continue in June, and to benefit bitcoin's long-term performance. The uncertainty of President Donald Trump's tariff policy has so far helped bitcoin more than hurt it – the initial sell-off in risk assets after Trump's tariffs were unveiled in April pulled it down to about $76,000, but bitcoin still finished the month up 13.5%. That said, analysts say not to dismiss the downside risk just yet. "The fact that significant policy adjustments can be made at any time, especially around tariffs, makes near-term pricing incredibly difficult," said Chris Rhine, head of liquid active strategies at Galaxy Digital. "The cumulative weight of this policy uncertainty will likely lead to a sharper slowdown in economic activity, particularly in consumer-driven end markets, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy support." In other words, lower interest rates. 1M mountain Bitcoin (BTC) in May Investors have cheered crypto's seeming decoupling from equities in recent weeks, benefiting when there's liquidity in the market and stocks do well, but also in risk-off scenarios where crypto has provided a haven from uncertainty. That best-of-both-worlds scenario has helped support bitcoin's price and bring new buyers to the market. Unfortunately, that dynamic hasn't been meaningfully tested yet, said Federico Brokate, head of U.S. business at 21Shares, a financial technology company focused on providing access to cryptocurrency investments through exchange-traded products. "The macro story is still very important," Brokate said. "If we continue to see that in June, that's going to be very bullish for the asset, price wise. We haven't seen this play out over a sustained period of time, so this is something that a lot of us will be paying attention to over the next few weeks." After reaching a new all-time high on May 22 of $111,999, bitcoin retreated to the $104,000 level Friday after Trump reignited fears of a trade war with China . In a social media post, the president claimed China "violated" its current trade agreement with the U.S., one day after Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a Fox News interview that U.S.-China trade talks "are a bit stalled." The shadow of unpredictability aside, investors are optimistic about bitcoin's direction, primarily monitoring bitcoin ETF flows, corporate treasury announcements and regulatory developments. After an early block, the 'GENIUS' Act, short for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins, advanced to the Senate on May 19 and is likely to come up for a floor vote in early June. Whether it passes with bipartisan support or fails to pass, the outcome will likely have an impact on sentiment around bitcoin, Galaxy's Rhine said. Wells Fargo expects "a difficult road ahead" in light of a separate bill to regulate stablecoins in the House, analyst Andrew Bauch said in a note this week. From a technical standpoint, looking solely at price charts, bulls are likely to hold the reins in June, according to Tracy Jin, chief operating officer of crypto exchange MEXC. "[They'll] aim to defend the $109,000 support level, a potential target for downward pressure from hedge funds holding put options," she said. With a new record behind it, bitcoin has now opened the door to the $113,000 to $115,000 zone. That represents "serious resistance on the way to a strategic target of $130,000, Jin said, adding: "If the current pace is maintained and the $115,000 level is successfully overcome, the price may reach $130,000 in June."
