ETFs and corporate treasuries should support bitcoin's uptrend in June as tariff uncertainty lingers
In the tug of war between the macroeconomic and crypto adoption stories, blockchain adoption is starting to taking over the bitcoin narrative. Institutions and corporations combined to drive up bitcoin in May. The cryptocurrency ended the month about 10% higher, its second straight monthly rise, driven by strong inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds and continued purchases of bitcoin by corporate treasury departments. Bitcoin ETFs saw $5.6 billion in inflows this month, when the number of bitcoin held by public companies grew 4% to $85.6 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries . Investors expect the trend to continue in June, and to benefit bitcoin's long-term performance. The uncertainty of President Donald Trump's tariff policy has so far helped bitcoin more than hurt it – the initial sell-off in risk assets after Trump's tariffs were unveiled in April pulled it down to about $76,000, but bitcoin still finished the month up 13.5%. That said, analysts say not to dismiss the downside risk just yet. "The fact that significant policy adjustments can be made at any time, especially around tariffs, makes near-term pricing incredibly difficult," said Chris Rhine, head of liquid active strategies at Galaxy Digital. "The cumulative weight of this policy uncertainty will likely lead to a sharper slowdown in economic activity, particularly in consumer-driven end markets, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy support." In other words, lower interest rates. BTC.CM= 1M mountain Bitcoin (BTC) in May Investors have cheered crypto's seeming decoupling from equities in recent weeks, benefiting when there's liquidity in the market and stocks do well, but also in risk-off scenarios where crypto has provided a haven from uncertainty. That best-of-both-worlds scenario has helped support bitcoin's price and bring new buyers to the market. Unfortunately, that dynamic hasn't been meaningfully tested yet, said Federico Brokate, head of U.S. business at 21Shares, a financial technology company focused on providing access to cryptocurrency investments through exchange-traded products. "The macro story is still very important," Brokate said. "If we continue to see that in June, that's going to be very bullish for the asset, price wise. We haven't seen this play out over a sustained period of time, so this is something that a lot of us will be paying attention to over the next few weeks." After reaching a new all-time high on May 22 of $111,999, bitcoin retreated to the $104,000 level Friday after Trump reignited fears of a trade war with China . In a social media post, the president claimed China "violated" its current trade agreement with the U.S., one day after Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a Fox News interview that U.S.-China trade talks "are a bit stalled." The shadow of unpredictability aside, investors are optimistic about bitcoin's direction, primarily monitoring bitcoin ETF flows, corporate treasury announcements and regulatory developments. After an early block, the 'GENIUS' Act, short for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins, advanced to the Senate on May 19 and is likely to come up for a floor vote in early June. Whether it passes with bipartisan support or fails to pass, the outcome will likely have an impact on sentiment around bitcoin, Galaxy's Rhine said. Wells Fargo expects "a difficult road ahead" in light of a separate bill to regulate stablecoins in the House, analyst Andrew Bauch said in a note this week. From a technical standpoint, looking solely at price charts, bulls are likely to hold the reins in June, according to Tracy Jin, chief operating officer of crypto exchange MEXC. "[They'll] aim to defend the $109,000 support level, a potential target for downward pressure from hedge funds holding put options," she said. With a new record behind it, bitcoin has now opened the door to the $113,000 to $115,000 zone. That represents "serious resistance on the way to a strategic target of $130,000, Jin said, adding: "If the current pace is maintained and the $115,000 level is successfully overcome, the price may reach $130,000 in June."
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