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Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Reckoning Is Coming for US Treasuries, Says Gundlach
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says a "reckoning is coming" for US treasuries. "You should be thinking about increasing your allocations to non-dollar investments," he said at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
'Sell America' is in full force for elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach, who warns of a US debt 'reckoning'
Investor Jeff Gundlach expressed caution over the US debt load in recent remarks. He said the "untenable" debt burden in America is heading for a "reckoning." The so-called "King of Bonds" said his firm is starting to introduce foreign currencies to its funds. Elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach is doubling down on the '"Sell America" trade. The DoubleLine Capital CEO, previously coined as the "King of Bonds," raised concerns about dollar-denominated assets when speaking at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum on Wednesday. At the core of his comments is growing concern over America's swelling debt load, which is expected to get even bigger if President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" eventually passes. "There's an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset," Gundlach said, warning that a "reckoning is coming." He's referring to recent volatility in long-dated government bonds, like 30-year Treasurys, which haven't been trading like the sure-thing safe bet they're supposed to be. And Gundlach's firm has been putting its money where its mouth is. The DoubleLine CEO said his firm has been allocating more fund holdings to foreign currencies, and recommended that investors broadly start to think about boosting non-dollar-denominated holdings. Gundlach also sees the tide turning in the global stock market. "Things always take longer than people think, but it's happening in real-time, and the next one will be selective emerging market equities as opposed to the US," Gundlach said. Gundlach highlighted multiple unusual patterns that have been flashing in US markets this year. He sees these as signs that markets are likely concerned about the US debt, and that faith in US assets is starting to fade, he added. The US dollar and stocks. When the S&P 500 falls, the value of the dollar typically moves higher relative to other currencies, Gundlach said. But in April, when the S&P 500 tanked 20% amid the turmoil from Donald Trump's tariffs, the US dollar also weakened in value. The US Dollar Index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, traded around 97.8 on Thursday, down 9% from levels at the start of the year. US Treasurys. When the Fed cuts interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yield, which is tied to long-term interest rate expectations in the economy, typically falls. But the 10-year yield has climbed around 74 basis points from its low in September, around the time the Fed issued its first rate cut. "So I think what we have is recognition is that the interest expense for the United States is untenable if we continue running a $2.1 trillion budget deficit and we continue to have sticky interest rates," Gundlach said of the market shifts. Foreign investors have steadily added exposure to the US market over the last 17 years, Gundlach said, noting that the foreign net investment position in the US currently hovered around $25 trillion. "It's not inconceivable that some of the $25 trillion that came in just a couple — not even two decades — could go out," Gundlach said. "You should be thinking about increasing your allocations to non-dollar investments. And it's already working." Gundlach said there were several areas where investors could find safety away from US assets. Gold. Gundlach said he's continued to hold gold when it reached the level around $3,000 an ounce, and that he also holds stakes in gold miners. Previously, he's said that he believes gold could rally to as high as $4,000 an ounce as concerns swirl over tariffs, geopolitical conflict, and rising debt levels in the US. "I think gold is a real asset class. It's no longer for lunatic survivalists and wild speculators," he said. India. Gundlach also said investors should look into Indian assets, suggesting that India could see a similar run-up in economic growth that China has seen over the past three decades. India is riddled with many of the same economic issue China faced 35 years ago, Gundlach said, though be believed many of those issues can be fixed. "I don't know how long it will take, but that's one you buy," he said. Gundlach has consistently sounded the alarm on rising deficits in the US for years, and encouraged investors to pile into safe-havens. But forecasters on Wall Street have cast doubt on the "Sell America" trade, which is hinges on the idea that US will stop outperforming other assets in the world. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are among those who have said that they believe US assets will continue to dominate global markets. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
a day ago
- Business
- Business Insider
'Sell America' is in full force for elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach, who warns of a US debt 'reckoning'
Investor Jeff Gundlach expressed caution over the US debt load in recent remarks. He said the "untenable" debt burden in America is heading for a "reckoning." The so-called "King of Bonds" said his firm is starting to introduce foreign currencies to its funds. Elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach is doubling down on the '" Sell America" trade. The DoubleLine Capital CEO, previously coined as the "King of Bonds," raised concerns about dollar-denominated assets when speaking at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum on Wednesday. At the core of his comments is growing concern over America's swelling debt load, which is expected to get even bigger if President Donald Trump's " Big Beautiful Bill" eventually passes. "There's an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset," Gundlach said, warning that a "reckoning is coming." He's referring to recent volatility in long-dated government bonds, like 30-year Treasurys, which haven't been trading like the sure-thing safe bet they're supposed to be. And Gundlach's firm has been putting its money where its mouth is. The DoubleLine CEO said his firm has been allocating more fund holdings to foreign currencies, and recommended that investors broadly start to think about boosting non-dollar-denominated holdings. Gundlach also sees the tide turning in the global stock market. "Things always take longer than people think, but it's happening in real-time, and the next one will be selective emerging market equities as opposed to the US," Gundlach said. 2 signs of stress Reuters Gundlach highlighted multiple unusual patterns that have been flashing in US markets this year. He sees these as signs that markets are likely concerned about the US debt, and that faith in US assets is starting to fade, he added. The US dollar and stocks. When the S&P 500 falls, the value of the dollar typically moves higher relative to other currencies, Gundlach said. But in April, when the S&P 500 tanked 20% amid the turmoil from Donald Trump's tariffs, the US dollar also weakened in value. The US Dollar Index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, traded around 97.8 on Thursday, down 9% from levels at the start of the year. US Treasurys. When the Fed cuts interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yield, which is tied to long-term interest rate expectations in the economy, typically falls. But the 10-year yield has climbed around 74 basis points from its low in September, around the time the Fed issued its first rate cut. "So I think what we have is recognition is that the interest expense for the United States is untenable if we continue running a $2.1 trillion budget deficit and we continue to have sticky interest rates," Gundlach said of the market shifts. Foreign investors have steadily added exposure to the US market over the last 17 years, Gundlach said, noting that the foreign net investment position in the US currently hovered around $25 trillion. "It's not inconceivable that some of the $25 trillion that came in just a couple — not even two decades — could go out," Gundlach said. "You should be thinking about increasing your allocations to non-dollar investments. And it's already working." Where to go if you're "selling America" Gundlach said there were several areas where investors could find safety away from US assets. Gold. Gundlach said he's continued to hold gold when it reached the level around $3,000 an ounce, and that he also holds stakes in gold miners. Previously, he's said that he believes gold could rally to as high as $4,000 an ounce as concerns swirl over tariffs, geopolitical conflict, and rising debt levels in the US. "I think gold is a real asset class. It's no longer for lunatic survivalists and wild speculators," he said. India. Gundlach also said investors should look into Indian assets, suggesting that India could see a similar run-up in economic growth that China has seen over the past three decades. India is riddled with many of the same economic issue China faced 35 years ago, Gundlach said, though be believed many of those issues can be fixed. "I don't know how long it will take, but that's one you buy," he said. Gundlach has consistently sounded the alarm on rising deficits in the US for years, and encouraged investors to pile into safe-havens. But forecasters on Wall Street have cast doubt on the "Sell America" trade, which is hinges on the idea that US will stop outperforming other assets in the world. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are among those who have said that they believe US assets will continue to dominate global markets.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
DoubleLine's Gundlach Says ‘Reckoning Is Coming' for US Debt
(Bloomberg) -- America's debt burden and interest expense have become 'untenable,' a situation that may lead investors to move out of dollar-based assets, according to DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach. Shuttered NY College Has Alumni Fighting Over Its Future Trump's Military Parade Has Washington Bracing for Tanks and Weaponry NYC Renters Brace for Price Hikes After Broker-Fee Ban NY Long Island Rail Service Resumes After Grand Central Fire Do World's Fairs Still Matter? 'There's an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset,' the veteran bond manager said Wednesday in an interview at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles. A 'reckoning is coming.' In a wide-ranging discussion that also touched on gold's attractiveness, stretched market valuations, the state of private credit, artificial intelligence and long-term investment opportunities in India, Gundlach said investors should consider increasing their non-dollar-based holdings, adding that his firm was starting to introduce foreign currencies into its funds. His comments came a day before a closely watched auction for 30-year Treasury bonds. Gundlach, 65, likened today's market to the environment in 1999, just before the dot-com bust, as well as 2006 and 2007 before the global financial crisis. Going further, he said the booming private credit sector is analogous to the market for collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, in the mid-2000s, 'where there's just tremendous issuance, there's tremendous acceptance.' The investor noted that public credit markets have outperformed their private counterparts in recent months, and sees 'overinvestment' — and a risk of forced selling — in the latter. 'I just don't think the excess reward is anything close to what it used to be,' Gundlach said. He cited possible selling of private assets by US institutions such as Harvard University, which has explored offloading part of its endowment's private equity holdings as the Trump administration cuts off grants and funding. Gundlach founded DoubleLine in 2009 after a contentious exit from TCW, where he'd become a star bond manager. DoubleLine managed $93 billion in assets and had more than 250 employees as of March. The firm and its founder haven't shied away from bold takes. Gundlach, who called Donald Trump's first presidential win in 2016, gave the Federal Reserve an F grade in September for its response to the economy as he correctly predicted a half-point rate cut, and earlier this year the firm posed an open question of whether Microsoft Corp. debt was safer than Treasuries. Next Stop 6%? As for Treasury debt, Gundlach said yields on long-term bonds could continue to rise as the economy starts to weaken. If yields reached 6%, that could prompt the Federal Reserve to step in and start quantitative easing, buying long-term Treasuries to rein in borrowing costs. DoubleLine and peers including Pacific Investment Management Co. and TCW Group Inc. have been avoiding the longest-dated US government bonds in favor of shorter maturities that carry less interest-rate risk in the face of spiraling federal debt and deficits. US 30-year yields touched a near two-decade high of 5.15% last month, and traded at around 4.9% on Thursday. In a telling sign, yields on the long-term benchmark are higher year to date, even as rates on shorter-term Treasuries have fallen. While known for his fixed-income calls, Gundlach has grown more bullish on gold, doubling down on its status as a 'real asset class' and one that is 'no longer for lunatic survivalists' and speculators. 'We have a tremendous paradigm shift where money is not coming into the United States, and gold is suddenly the flight to quality asset,' he said. Gundlach previously predicted that the price of gold would shatter records, as happened this year, and in May, he told CNBC that the precious metal could swell to $4,000 per ounce, up from about $3,350 now. He also pointed to India as one of the 'most bankable' long-term investment opportunities. 'The way to invest in periods like this is to go with long-term themes,' Gundlach said. 'It might take 30 years, but you should invest in India because it has a similar profile today that China had 35 years ago.' --With assistance from Elizabeth Campbell, Loukia Gyftopoulou and Michael Mackenzie. (Adds the 30-year Treasury auction in the third paragraph.) New Grads Join Worst Entry-Level Job Market in Years American Mid: Hampton Inn's Good-Enough Formula for World Domination The Spying Scandal Rocking the World of HR Software The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
DoubleLine's Gundlach Says ‘Reckoning Is Coming' for US Debt
America's debt burden and interest expense have become 'untenable,' a situation that may lead investors to move out of dollar-based assets, according to DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach. 'There's an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset,' the veteran bond manager said Wednesday in an interview at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles. A 'reckoning is coming.' In a wide-ranging discussion that also touched on gold's attractiveness, stretched market valuations, the state of private credit, artificial intelligence and long-term investment opportunities in India, Gundlach said investors should be considering non-dollar-based holdings, adding that his firm was starting to introduce foreign currencies into its funds. Gundlach, 65, likened today's market to the environment in 1999, just before the dot-com bust, as well as 2006 and 2007 before the global financial crisis. Going further, he said the booming private credit sector is analogous to the market for collateralized debt obligations,or CDOs, in the mid-2000s, 'where there's just tremendous issuance, there's tremendous acceptance.' The investor noted that public credit markets have outperformed their private counterparts in recent months, and sees 'overinvestment' — and a risk of forced selling — in the latter. 'I just don't think the excess reward is anything close to what it used to be,' Gundlach said. He cited possible selling of private assets by US institutions such as Harvard University, which has explored offloading part of its endowment's private equity holdings as the Trump administration cuts off grants and funding. Gundlach founded DoubleLine in 2009 after a contentious exit from TCW, where he'd become a star bond manager. DoubleLine managed $93 billion in assets and had more than 250 employees as of March. The firm and its founder haven't shied away from bold takes. Gundlach, who called Donald Trump's first presidential win in 2016, gave the Federal Reserve an F grade in September for its response to the economy as he correctly predicted a half-point rate cut, and earlier this year the firm posed an open question of whether Microsoft Corp. debt was safer than Treasuries. As for Treasury debt, Gundlach said yields on long-term bonds could continue to rise as the economy starts to weaken. If yields reached 6%, that could prompt the Federal Reserve to step in and start quantitative easing, buying long-term Treasuries to rein in borrowing costs. DoubleLine and peers including Pacific Investment Management Co. and TCW Group Inc. have been avoiding the longest-dated US government bonds in favor of shorter maturities that carry less interest-rate risk in the face of spiraling federal debt and deficits. US 30-year yields touched a near two-decade high of 5.15% last month, and traded at 4.91% as of Wednesday. In a telling sign, yields on the long-term benchmark are higher year to date, even as rates on shorter-term Treasuries have fallen. While known for his fixed-income calls, Gundlach has grown more bullish on gold, doubling down on its status as a 'real asset class' and one that is 'no longer for lunatic survivalists' and speculators. 'We have a tremendous paradigm shift where money is not coming into the United States, and gold is suddenly the flight to quality asset,' he said. Gundlach previously predicted that the price of gold would shatter records, as happened this year, and in May, he told CNBC that the precious metal could swell to $4,000 per ounce, up from about $3,350 now. He also pointed to India as one of the 'most bankable' long-term investment opportunities. 'The way to invest in periods like this is to go with long-term themes,' Gundlach said. 'It might take 30 years, but you should invest in India because it has a similar profile today that China had 35 years ago.' With assistance from Elizabeth Campbell, Loukia Gyftopoulou and Michael Mackenzie. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
