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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
EM debt hedge funds eye safeguards as world-beating rally blooms
Hedge funds dedicated to emerging-market debt are increasingly turning to risk-mitigating strategies to ensure they lock in double digit gains as a broad rally in developing nation assets deepens. After a banner first half of the year, hedge funds targeting EM debt have returned nearly 13 per cent on an annual basis — more than their peers positioned in any other asset class, according to data based on Bloomberg indexes. The latest global financial flows data shows the asset class remains thriving and the extra yield investors demand to hold the sovereign debt of developing nations over US Treasuries just hit a 15-year low. Such tight pricing, along with uncertainty over US policies and global conflicts, is pushing hedge funds to curb risks as they ride the historic rally. The funds do this by swapping longer-maturity bonds in their portfolios for less risky shorter-dated ones. They also focus on higher-rated debt and the most-liquid securities while keeping an ample cash pile. 'Do you just want to be massively long on credit on these valuations? I'd say probably not,' said Anthony Kettle, who co-manages BlueBay Emerging Market Unconstrained Bond Fund with Polina Kurdyavko and Brent David. 'Having a little bit of dry powder evidently makes sense, and also running elevated cash levels.' To be clear, Kettle said, there's still a 'decent environment' to gain additional returns as funds become more selective and can profit from both rising and falling asset prices, unlike index-based investors. The $784-million BlueBay fund has returned 17 per cent over the past 12 months. Investors have taken advantage of EM inflows stoked by increased interest for alternative assets amid US policy unpredictability, which has also weakened the dollar. While many developing countries have come out of distressed debt levels as sentiment improved, further risks include another Iran-Israel flare up and potential additional increases in US tariffs, including on the buyers of Russian energy. President Donald Trump's administration has caused a 'breakdown of the traditional safe haven correlations' by shaking up the post-Cold War world order, creating an 'unusual and unpredictable' environment, said Demetris Efstathiou, the chief investment officer of Blue Diagonal EM Fixed Income Fund. 'It is very hard to predict what they will do next with tariffs, and on top of that you have ongoing wars,' Efstathiou said. His fund is 'very conservatively' positioned with shorter-maturity bonds and he avoids weak credits to protect the portfolio in the event of a global slowdown and market downturn. He has increased holdings of AAA- and AA-rated EM sovereigns along with less-indebted countries with large domestic markets like Brazil, Turkey and Mexico. EM-dedicated bond funds have received $31 billion in inflows year-to-date, with positioning increased in each of the last 14 weeks as global markets recalibrate after an era of US dominance. A near-record $5.7 billion piled into the asset class in the week though July 23, according to EPFR Global data provided by economists at Bank of America Corp. For some, flows of such a magnitude signal that EM debt is alrdy predicting the best-case scenario. 'The market is now priced for a Goldilocks scenario with the risk of a severe recession receding significantly and expectations' of one or more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the $847 million Enko Africa Debt Fund said in a letter to clients. Managed by Alain Nkontchou, the Africa-specific hedge fund has returned 24 per cent over the past year. Nevertheless, the expected volatility means that traditional buy-to-hold trades may not necessarily succeed and that hedge funds will prioritize holding more liquid assets to ensure an easier exit in case sentiment turns, according to ProMeritum Investment Management LLP, a $700-million fund that invests in developing markets outside China. 'Liquidity management will be critical in the second half of the year because of an unpredictable environment and geopolitical risks,' said Evgueni Konovalenko, managing partner and head of strategy at the firm. Such a focus is needed 'to take advantage of both short and long positions with sudden policy changes and a daily barrage of headlines.' What to Watch: Markets will look out for any trade talks with the US ahead of the Aug 1 deadline for Trump's latest tariffs to take effect China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI; second-quarter GDP data for Taiwan and Mexico, South Korea export data Brazil, Chile and South Africa central bank meetings on benchmark interest rates; South Africa may cut rates by another 25 basis points to 7 per cent, despite the likely rise in inflation later this year. (With assistance from Jorgelina do Rosario)
Reuters
18-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Hedge funds favour short-dated, convertible bonds if Fed's Powell leaves early
LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Hedge funds say they are prepared if U.S. President Donald Trump fires Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term expires next year. The dollar briefly tumbled on Wednesday and long-dated Treasury yields rose on reports that Trump is likely to fire Powell soon. Trump denied the reports. Trump has repeatedly criticised the Fed chief for not cutting rates quickly enough. Four hedge funds shared four ideas on how to trade an early Powell departure. Their views do not represent recommendations or trading positions, which they cannot reveal for regulatory reasons. * Macro economic fund * Size: part of the $491 billion RBC Global Asset Management * Founded in 2001 * Key trade: Buy 2-year U.S. Treasuries, sell 30-year Treasuries Trump has said that he would "love" it if Powell were to resign, and has called for interest rates to be cut to 1%. The current range for the key Fed funds rate is 4.25%-4.5%. A new Fed chair would be pushed to cut rates, lowering front end yields, said Mark Dowding, CIO for BlueBay fixed income. Bond yields move inversely to price. Two-year Treasury yields dropped following Wednesday, opens new tab's news reports, while 30-year yields briefly jumped , . "Long-dated yields may well move in the opposite direction as Fed independence is undermined and medium-term inflation risks increase," Dowding said. * Convertible bond specialist * Size: $10 million * Founded in 2024 * Key trade: Buy Coinbase convertible bonds Orlando Gemes, CIO and co-founder of Fourier Asset Management, favours convertible bonds issued by crypto exchange Coinbase. These bonds, which provide a steady income and can turn into shares at pre-agreed prices, are the fund's main focus. "Our preference is the 2026 bond given the conversion price of $370.45, while the 2030 bond has a conversion price of $333.55," said Gemes. Gemes does not expect a huge market reaction initially if Powell is fired but believes the result will be inflationary. If rates are cut, the yields on these convertible bonds will fall. "But ultimately a Powell firing... would continue the inflationary nature of the Trump administration," said Gemes. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in June on an annual basis, versus 2.4% in May. * Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) * Size: Cannot disclose for regulatory reasons * Founded in 2009 * Key trade: sell the dollar David Burkart, founder and CIO of Caloma Capital, says he would sell the dollar against a basket of currencies. "A Powell replacement is extremely likely to be dovish and thus the interest rate differential between the U.S. and other countries will narrow, reducing the relative attractiveness of the dollar," said Burkart. Longer term, the U.S. debt and tax burden is increasing and risks slower U.S. growth which should also weigh on the dollar, he said. Burkart believes the dollar index could potentially fall to 90 and that 80 is "not out of the question." The dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab, currently trading at around 98.56, has tumbled almost 10% so far this year. * Japan equity long/short hedge fund strategy, market-neutral, governance focused * Size: Part of $200 billion UBP * Founded in 2020 * Key trade: short Japanese exporters, especially those without overseas production bases Zuhair Khan, senior portfolio manager at UBP Investments, who manages a long-short Japan equities fund, said he expects the yen to strengthen and most Japanese stocks to fall if Powell leaves early. The blue-chip Nikkei 225 (.N225), opens new tab is down 0.2% so far this year, underperforming other major markets in Asia. Domestic Japanese stocks are likely to fare better than exporters, though all of them are likely to fall, says Khan. Within exporters, Khan favoured picking names with more overseas production aimed at those markets rather than those producing in Japan for export.
Straits Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Central banks in Asia becoming wary of currency intervention
SINGAPORE – Some of emerging Asia's biggest central banks look to be dialing back their interventions in the currency market. The central banks of India and Malaysia have reduced the size of some derivatives positions they use to weaken their currencies. Taiwan has allowed its currency to surge against the US dollar in recent weeks and dropped hints it would be comfortable with more if the moves were 'orderly.' South Korea's giant national pension fund has ended its five-month support of the won. A major reason for these moves is a simple change in the market landscape: The US dollar has tumbled more than 7 per cent this year, easing pressure on emerging market currencies. But strategists and investors also point to the risk of a backlash from US President Donald Trump, amid rising speculation that currency policies will be on the table during a series of ongoing – and high stakes – tariff negotiations. 'The threat of being labelled a currency manipulator by the US, especially during this period of tariff negotiations, will act as a deterrent to further heavy FX intervention in local markets,' said Rajeev De Mello, a Geneva-based portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management. The US Treasury refrained from labeling any country a currency manipulator in its latest foreign-exchange report, released in June. However, it said China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam all met two out of three of its criteria. The shifting approach of Asia's central banks to defending their currencies underscores the sweeping changes in global markets since the election of Mr Trump, whose on again-off again tariff threats have roiled asset prices and raised once unthinkable questions about the dollar's place in the global trading system. South Korea confirmed in May that it had held currency talks with the United States, sending the won higher amid talk that Mr Trump wants a weaker US dollar. But White House chief economist Stephen Miran has denied the idea Washington is working on secret deals to depreciate the greenback, saying the US continues to have a strong dollar policy. The greenback has plummeted against major currencies this year, suffering drops of around 10 per cent against the euro and the Swiss franc. Best bets Traders are now trying to game out which currencies have the most to gain from a period of reduced intervention. The Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit are two obvious candidates, since both countries have large trade surpluses, said Gautam Kalani, portfolio manager for BlueBay fixed income, emerging markets, at RBC Global Asset Management. Reduced intervention will speed up the appreciation of these currencies, he said. The Taiwan dollar is also being hotly tipped by strategists. Although Taiwan's central bank is still likely to use intervention to keep volatility in check, most market participants think it will allow the local currency to appreciate further even after hitting multi-year highs. That suggests room to build on what has already been a widespread rally against the US dollar: Taiwan's currency has surged 11 per cent against the greenback this year, making it the region's best performer. The Korean won is up almost 8 per cent, while the Malaysian ringgit is around 5 per cent higher. The retreat from intervention isn't unanimous across Asia. Bank Indonesia pushed back against volatility on June 19 as Middle East tensions hit emerging market currencies. The Philippines' central bank has sent mixed messages, calling intervention futile but also saying it might have to do so 'more seriously' if a current slide in the peso continues. The People's Bank of China continues to keep its currency under a tight leash. But for some of emerging Asia's most interventionist central banks, the calculus appears to have shifted in favour of a less hands-on approach. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
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Business Standard
22-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Central banks in Asia scale back currency intervention as dollar weakens
By Marcus Wong and Malavika Kaur Makol Some of emerging Asia's biggest central banks look to be dialing back their interventions in the currency market. The central banks of India and Malaysia have reduced the size of some derivatives positions they use to weaken their currencies. Taiwan has allowed its currency to surge against the dollar in recent weeks and dropped hints it would be comfortable with more if the moves were 'orderly.' South Korea's giant national pension fund has ended its five-month support of the won. A major reason for these moves is a simple change in the market landscape: The dollar has tumbled more than 7 per cent this year, easing pressure on emerging market currencies. But strategists and investors also point to the risk of a backlash from US President Donald Trump, amid rising speculation that currency policies will be on the table during a series of ongoing — and high stakes — trade negotiations. 'The threat of being labeled a currency manipulator by the US, especially during this period of tariff negotiations, will act as a deterrent to further heavy FX intervention in local markets,' said Rajeev De Mello, a Geneva-based portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management SA. The shifting approach of Asia's central banks to defending their currencies underscores the sweeping changes in global markets since the election of Trump, whose on again-off again tariff threats have roiled asset prices and raised once unthinkable questions about the dollar's place in the global trading system. Korea confirmed last month that it had held currency talks with the US, sending the won higher amid talk that Trump wants a weaker dollar. But White House chief economist Stephen Miran has denied the idea Washington is working on secret deals to depreciate the greenback, saying the US continues to have a strong dollar policy. The greenback has plummeted against major currencies this year, suffering drops of around 10 per cent against the euro and the Swiss franc. Best bets Traders are now trying to game out which currencies have the most to gain from a period of reduced intervention. The Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit are two obvious candidates, since both countries have large trade surpluses, said Gautam Kalani, portfolio manager for BlueBay fixed income, emerging markets, at RBC Global Asset Management. Reduced intervention will speed up the appreciation of these currencies, he said. The Taiwan dollar is also being hotly tipped by strategists. Although Taiwan's central bank is still likely to use intervention to keep volatility in check, most market participants think it will allow the local currency to appreciate further even after hitting multi-year highs. That suggests room to build on what has already been a widespread rally against the dollar: Taiwan's currency has surged 11 per cent against the greenback this year, making it the region's best performer. The Korean won is up almost 8 per cent, while the Malaysian ringgit is around 5 per cent higher. The retreat from intervention isn't unanimous across Asia. Bank Indonesia pushed back against volatility on Thursday as Middle East tensions hit emerging market currencies. The Philippines' central bank has sent mixed messages, calling intervention futile but also saying it might have to do so 'more seriously' if a current slide in the peso continues. The People's Bank of China continues to keep its currency under a tight leash. But for some of emerging Asia's most interventionist central banks, the calculus appears to have shifted in favor of a less hands-on approach. The US Treasury refrained from labeling any country a currency manipulator in its latest foreign-exchange report, released in June. However, it said China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam all met two out of three of its criteria.
Business Times
22-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Central banks in Asia are becoming wary of currency intervention
Some of emerging Asia's biggest central banks look to be dialling back their interventions in the currency market. The central banks of India and Malaysia have reduced the size of some derivatives positions they use to weaken their currencies. Taiwan has allowed its currency to surge against the US dollar in recent weeks and dropped hints that it would be comfortable with more if the moves were 'orderly'. South Korea's giant national pension fund has ended its five-month support of the won. A major reason for these moves is a simple change in the market landscape: The US dollar has tumbled more than 7 per cent this year, easing pressure on emerging market currencies. But strategists and investors also point to the risk of a backlash from US President Donald Trump, amid rising speculation that currency policies will be on the table during a series of ongoing – and high stakes – trade negotiations. 'The threat of being labelled a currency manipulator by the US, especially during this period of tariff negotiations, will act as a deterrent to further heavy FX intervention in local markets,' said Rajeev De Mello, a Geneva-based portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management. The shifting approach of Asia's central banks to defending their currencies underscores the sweeping changes in global markets since the election of Trump, whose on again-off again tariff threats have roiled asset prices and raised once unthinkable questions about the US dollar's place in the global trading system. South Korea confirmed last month that it had held currency talks with the US, sending the won higher amid talk that Trump wants a weaker US dollar. But White House chief economist Stephen Miran has denied the idea that Washington is working on secret deals to depreciate the greenback, saying the US continues to have a strong US dollar policy. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The greenback has plummeted against major currencies this year, suffering drops of around 10 per cent against the euro and the Swiss franc. Traders are now trying to game out which currencies have the most to gain from a period of reduced intervention. The South Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit are two obvious candidates, since both countries have large trade surpluses, said Gautam Kalani, portfolio manager for BlueBay fixed income, emerging markets, at RBC Global Asset Management. Reduced intervention will speed up the appreciation of these currencies, he said. The Taiwan dollar is also being hotly tipped by strategists. Although Taiwan's central bank is still likely to use intervention to keep volatility in check, most market participants think it will allow the local currency to appreciate further even after hitting multi-year highs. That suggests room to build on what has already been a widespread rally against the US dollar: Taiwan's currency has surged 11 per cent against the greenback this year, making it the region's best performer. The South Korean won is up almost 8 per cent, while the Malaysian ringgit is around 5 per cent higher. The retreat from intervention isn't unanimous across Asia. Bank Indonesia pushed back against volatility on Thursday (Jun 19) as Middle East tensions hit emerging market currencies. The Philippines' central bank has sent mixed messages, calling intervention futile but also saying it might have to do so 'more seriously' if a current slide in the peso continues. The People's Bank of China continues to keep its currency under a tight leash. But for some of emerging Asia's most interventionist central banks, the calculus appears to have shifted in favour of a less hands-on approach. The US Treasury refrained from labelling any country a currency manipulator in its latest foreign-exchange report, released in June. However, it said China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam all met two out of three of its criteria. BLOOMBERG
