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Time of India
05-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Business outlook: Business confidence index jumps to 149.4 in April-June; NCAER survey flags optimism in sales
India's business sentiment saw a sharp uptick in the April-June quarter, with the Business Confidence Index (BCI) rising to 149.4 from 139.3 in the previous quarter, according to the latest Business Expectations Survey by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). The index is built on four key components: expectations of overall economic improvement over the next six months, anticipated improvement in firms' financial positions, views on the present investment climate, and whether capacity utilisation is close to or above optimal levels, PTI reported. NCAER noted that more than 60% of respondents expressed positive views across all four parameters. 'The share of positive responses remained above 60% for each component, and every component exhibited an improving trend compared to the previous quarter,' the think tank said. Optimism around production and domestic demand was particularly strong. Around 78.7% of firms said they expect production to rise in the next six months, while 79.1% anticipated an increase in domestic sales. Export sentiment also strengthened, with 66.5% of respondents expecting a rise in outbound shipments of finished goods. Firms were also more positive about their import requirements, with 54.3% expecting an increase in raw material imports, up from 46.1% in the previous quarter—a sign of expected acceleration in domestic manufacturing activity. Nearly 61% of companies surveyed expected pre-tax profits to rise over the next six months, indicating continued buoyancy in business operations. However, this optimism was not reflected in the labour market outlook. Hiring and wage expectations remained unchanged, suggesting a stagnation in employment sentiment. 'With moderation in costs, firms were more optimistic about the next six months,' said NCAER Professor Bornali Bhandari, who led the survey. The survey, conducted in June, covered 479 companies across six major Indian cities. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays .
Economic Times
05-08-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India's business confidence index rises to 149.4 in April-June: NCAER
Synopsis The Business Confidence Index (BCI) surged to 149.4 in April-June 2024-25, up from 139.3 in the previous quarter, driven by positive expectations across key economic indicators. A majority of firms anticipate increased production, domestic sales, and exports, signaling strong business optimism. However, this positive sentiment hasn't translated into improvements in the labor market, with hiring and wage expectations remaining stagnant. AI generated image for representation purposes. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose sharply to 149.4 in the April-June period from 139.3 in the last quarter of 2024-25, according to the Business Expectations Survey of National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). NCAER in a statement said the BCI is based on four components -- overall economic conditions to improve in next six months, financial position of firms will improve in the next six months, present investment climate and whether present capacity utilisation was close to or above optimal level. The share of positive responses across the four components remains above 60 per cent in the first quarter and also each component exhibited improving trend compared to the preceding quarter, the statement added. Majority of respondents expected production (78.7 per cent) and domestic sales (79.1 per cent) to increase in the next six months. The statement said sentiments about export of final products also improved (66.5 per cent) in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. Percentage of firms expecting import of raw materials to rise also increased (54.3 per cent) from the preceding quarter (46.1 per cent), signalling a push in domestic production activities, it added. Regarding sentiments about pre-tax profits, nearly 61 per cent of firms expected them to rise, indicating continued buoyancy. However, the statement said buoyancy in business sentiments was not reflected in the labour markets that showed signs of stagnation with both sentiments about hiring and expectations of wage rates remaining unchanged over the next six months. NCAER's Professor Bornali Bhandari, who led the survey, said, "With moderation in costs, firms were more optimistic about the next six months." The quarterly survey was carried out in June, covering 479 companies spread across six cities, the statement added.
News18
05-08-2025
- Business
- News18
Business confidence index rises to 149.4 in April-June: NCAER
New Delhi, Aug 5 (PTI) The Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose sharply to 149.4 in the April-June period from 139.3 in the last quarter of 2024-25, according to the Business Expectations Survey of National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). NCAER in a statement said the BCI is based on four components — overall economic conditions to improve in next six months, financial position of firms will improve in the next six months, present investment climate and whether present capacity utilisation was close to or above optimal level. The share of positive responses across the four components remains above 60 per cent in the first quarter and also each component exhibited improving trend compared to the preceding quarter, the statement added. Majority of respondents expected production (78.7 per cent) and domestic sales (79.1 per cent) to increase in the next six months. The statement said sentiments about export of final products also improved (66.5 per cent) in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. Percentage of firms expecting import of raw materials to rise also increased (54.3 per cent) from the preceding quarter (46.1 per cent), signalling a push in domestic production activities, it added. Regarding sentiments about pre-tax profits, nearly 61 per cent of firms expected them to rise, indicating continued buoyancy. However, the statement said buoyancy in business sentiments was not reflected in the labour markets that showed signs of stagnation with both sentiments about hiring and expectations of wage rates remaining unchanged over the next six months. NCAER's Professor Bornali Bhandari, who led the survey, said, 'With moderation in costs, firms were more optimistic about the next six months." The quarterly survey was carried out in June, covering 479 companies spread across six cities, the statement added. PTI BKS TRB TRB view comments First Published: August 05, 2025, 17:30 IST Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Mint
05-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Indira Rajaraman: Reduce uncertainty at the base of India's pyramid
The air in early May was thick with threats from across the border of drones and debris. Do these threats affect people differently depending on where they are situated on the socio-economic ladder? For people at the base of the pyramid, cross- border threats just add to everyday uncertainties. These are plain ordinary uncertainties, unconnected to job threats from artificial intelligence or tariff threats to export sector jobs. In urban India, dwellers in informal settlements live under the perennial threat of eviction. As gross domestic product (GDP) goes up, and with that urban real estate values, eviction possibilities increase. Service shacks in upscale localities supplying tea and other essentials operate under the threat of demolition, a threat directly proportional to their success. Also Read: Indian gig workers who offer mobility services deserve GST relief After six decades of research on poverty, to which I was an early contributor, we really know very little about coping strategies at the base of the pyramid. There are those who are poor with stagnant incomes but stable. There are those whose fortunes fluctuate, accompanied most usually by locational uncertainty. I have researched the mutual insurance function of groups which put together a uniform monthly sum and allocate these pots sequentially to all members according to need (the highest bid). But these require locational stability among group members. The spread of education and smartphones offers roving gig-work possibilities (given its ease of entry and exit) in urban centres. The common gig options are food delivery, guarding residences and personal health care. A 2023 paper by Bornali Bhandari and co-authors (confined to food delivery) shows that gig workers have more years of schooling than the average urban worker in the same age cohort; earn higher wages (uncorrected for the difference in education); but work longer hours. What happens to those higher gig earnings? Also Read: Mint Quick Edit | Insta Maids: Keep this gig idea under watch The explosive growth of digital payments has meant easier transfers of money than previously possible. Paradoxically, this very ease may have lowered control over earnings for gig workers. A median monthly gig earning of ₹20,000 is 40 times the annual income support of ₹6,000 received by a farming family under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman scheme. Enlarged earnings should normally be saved, as theory suggests. Gross household financial savings as a percentage of GDP should have risen, but are actually lower, by the latest data for three post-covid years from 2021-22 to 2023-24 (average of 11%), as compared to the three pre-covid years from 2017-18 to 2019-20 (average of 12%). Of course, the aggregate percentage is substantially shaped by the upper income deciles. The deployment of the gig earning spike is typically decided by a family patriarch. It can go towards coaching fees for a brother for entrance examinations to professional schools (a gamble, as the success percentage of coaching centres is dismally low). It can go towards health expenditures for family, extending to remote kin, where such assistance can dissolve later into fractious disputes. Weddings are another sink into which earning spikes disappear irretrievably. Even engagement events in urban informal settlements, to which rural relations of the groom demand to be transported at the expense of the bride's family, can be a financial wipe-out. Also Read: Social security for gig workers must aim for a balance of flexibility A respondent to a Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) would report these as 'essential,' because that is how they are perceived. That is congruent with tabulated findings of the unit-level data from the January 2025 CCS by Roshan Kishore. The monthly earning class of ₹10,000-25,000 (the gig earning range) has the largest percentage reporting an increase in 'essential spending,' despite a higher proportion reporting an income decrease relative to those reporting an increase, over the previous year. These claims periodically erode the gig worker's financial certainty and deny an overall sense of advancement. The 'JAM trinity' (Jan Dhan bank account-Aadhaar-mobile) that activated the base of the pyramid also enables family obligations. Also Read: Worker scarcity: Low-wage labour in India is crying out for a quantum leap in pay Several initiatives such as Ayushman Bharat have relieved to some degree the pressure from exogenous health shocks. But one type of health shock is totally preventable: the kind arising from traffic accidents, particularly from the failure to enforce helmets among two-wheeler riders. A 2024 report on road safety from the Transportation Research and Injury Prevention Centre at IIT Delhi shows that on urban roads, helmet usage among two-wheeler drivers was below 50% in five states, and among pillion riders below 50% in all but two states. In rural stretches including highways, helmets are largely non-existent. Popular movies like Three Idiots popularized helmet defiance. Enforcing helmet usage is doable. It will reduce the crush of patients in trauma centres and raise household financial savings by protecting new labour-force entrants from essential expenditures on family health claims. Enforcement will work only if, like vehicle insurance, helmet protection is made a requirement for vehicle use. Nothing prevents us from doing the best we can within our borders to reduce uncertainty by eliminating preventable accidents and injury. A helmet on a pole is a poignant symbol of a fallen soldier. A helmet on a head can equivalently be a symbol of a state that protects its people. The author is an economist.
