India's business confidence index rises to 149.4 in April-June: NCAER

Economic Times

7 days ago

Synopsis
The Business Confidence Index (BCI) surged to 149.4 in April-June 2024-25, up from 139.3 in the previous quarter, driven by positive expectations across key economic indicators. A majority of firms anticipate increased production, domestic sales, and exports, signaling strong business optimism. However, this positive sentiment hasn't translated into improvements in the labor market, with hiring and wage expectations remaining stagnant.
AI generated image for representation purposes. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose sharply to 149.4 in the April-June period from 139.3 in the last quarter of 2024-25, according to the Business Expectations Survey of National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).
NCAER in a statement said the BCI is based on four components -- overall economic conditions to improve in next six months, financial position of firms will improve in the next six months, present investment climate and whether present capacity utilisation was close to or above optimal level.
The share of positive responses across the four components remains above 60 per cent in the first quarter and also each component exhibited improving trend compared to the preceding quarter, the statement added. Majority of respondents expected production (78.7 per cent) and domestic sales (79.1 per cent) to increase in the next six months. The statement said sentiments about export of final products also improved (66.5 per cent) in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.
Percentage of firms expecting import of raw materials to rise also increased (54.3 per cent) from the preceding quarter (46.1 per cent), signalling a push in domestic production activities, it added. Regarding sentiments about pre-tax profits, nearly 61 per cent of firms expected them to rise, indicating continued buoyancy. However, the statement said buoyancy in business sentiments was not reflected in the labour markets that showed signs of stagnation with both sentiments about hiring and expectations of wage rates remaining unchanged over the next six months. NCAER's Professor Bornali Bhandari, who led the survey, said, "With moderation in costs, firms were more optimistic about the next six months."
The quarterly survey was carried out in June, covering 479 companies spread across six cities, the statement added.