Latest news with #BruceRiedel
Time of India
08-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Pakistan's 'India obsession' explained: 'Lost every war against India, yet ...': Bruce Riedel, former CIA
Bruce Riedel states that the Pakistani army believes it cannot defeat India through conventional means and has developed two strategies to level the playing field: the production of nuclear weapons and the use of asymmetric warfare. Show more Show less
News18
02-05-2025
- Politics
- News18
Pakistan Fears India's Rise In 2025, Just Like US Intelligence Document Had Predicted In 1993
Last Updated: Pahalgam terror attack: From the triggers to the response and reactions, the US intelligence document is significant in view of the India-Pakistan current scenario The more things change, the more they remain the same — Pakistan fears India's rise, in 2025, just as it did in 1993. As the tension between the two countries escalate, the 32-year-old assessment of the India-Pakistan dynamic by the United States' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), which is available on the National Security Archive website, still holds true. From the triggers to the response and reactions, the US intelligence document is significant in view of the current scenario. On April 22, an attack on tourists in Pahalgam's Baisaran left 26 dead. The Resistance Front (TRF), a shadow group of the terrorist outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility, leading to strong retaliatory measures by India. Meanwhile, Pakistan, despite the incitement by its Army chief, denies its involvement. Among the flashpoints for a war, it stated 'a spectacular terrorist outrage that one side believed the other directed or abetted". The conclusion in the document, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), was even more apt. 'If war erupts, it will likely start with something like Kashmir, and Pakistan will be on the back foot from the beginning." 'INDIA OUTNUMBERS PAK IN MILITARY CAPABILITY' The NIE was prepared by Bruce Riedel, a seasoned CIA analyst, when India had just experienced the Babri Masjid demolition (1992), and Pakistan was facing internal instability. Nuclear weapons were not yet tested. The document noted that neither India nor Pakistan wanted war. However, Pakistan, feeling overshadowed by India's growing power, was likely to act out of fear. This included supporting proxy groups in Kashmir or forming alliances with terrorists to counter India's influence. The CIA analysts saw a '20 per cent" chance of full-scale war, but were concerned about a potential chain reaction. The document listed a few triggers: A protracted surge of violence in Indian Kashmir that threatened New Delhi's grip on the state. Large-scale military exercises in border areas, especially if one or both sides deliberately evaded prior notification requirements. A spectacular terrorist outrage that one side believed the other directed or abetted. An Indian military cross-border action, for example, to close infiltration routes along the Line of Control or to punish Pakistan for supporting terrorism. Protracted Hindu-Muslim carnage that spilled across the border. The report warned of Pakistan's strategy of arming and training anti-India militants to 'liberate Kashmir." Sounds familiar? 'Pakistan sees nuclear weapons primarily as a deterrent and as insurance for its survival if a conflict developed with conventionally superior India…," it added, in a bleak reminder of Pakistan Minister Hanif Abbasi's recent threat of 130 nukes. THE REACTION The document said 'most other Islamic states will give lip service to Pakistan's position on Kashmir, but will not risk mortgaging their relationship with India". 'Rapid Indian military improvements would strain Pakistan's ability to remain competitive. Islamabad would feel even more threatened by India's growing military edge and would rely more heavily on nuclear deterrence. As a last resort, a desperate government in Islamabad also might consider an extreme measure such as openly deploying nuclear weapons," it said. India was led at the time by Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao and Finance Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and was growing. In contrast, Pakistan oscillated between military rule, political crises, and economic turmoil. The 1993 document predicted: 'Under certain extreme conditions, for instance, economic collapse and/ or a military dictator joining with militants-an Islamist government could be formed in Pakistan. A radical government almost certainly would establish an Islamic system of government based on its interpretation of shariah law and Islamic values. Such a regime would champion the cause of India's Muslims…It also would promote the liberation of Kashmir by openly arming and training anti-Indian militants." THE US top videos View all The NIE was to brief the White House and State Department. Then US president Bill Clinton visited India in 2000, coinciding with the Chittisinghpura massacre, where Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) killed 35 Sikh villagers. The CIA had a word of caution for the US. 'Confidence-building measures like hotlines and nuclear pacts were useful but might prove irrelevant in a real crisis. Verification was weak, and trust was thin. Once violence began, leaders would rely on instinct rather than protocol," it said. First Published: May 02, 2025, 17:42 IST News world Pakistan Fears India's Rise In 2025, Just Like US Intelligence Document Had Predicted In 1993
NDTV
01-05-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
A 1993 Declassified CIA Document That Exposes Pakistan's Fear Of India
New Delhi: The terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam's Baisaran Valley left 26 people dead and over 20 were wounded. A meadow where families came to rest became a burial ground for their loved ones. The Resistance Front (TRF), a group believed to be an offshoot of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and backed by Pakistan's deep state, is linked to the attack. Pakistan denies involvement. The script is familiar. But behind this latest tragedy lies a decades-old reality - one that the US intelligence saw coming. In 1993, the CIA declassified a secret assessment. Buried inside it is the idea that Pakistan fears India. Not just economically or militarily, but existentially. The document, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), studied the India-Pakistan dynamic and offered one conclusion: if war erupts, it will likely start with something like Kashmir, and Pakistan will be on the back foot from the beginning. The 1993 Forecast The NIE was prepared under Bruce Riedel, a seasoned CIA hand. It came at a time when India had just seen the demolition of the Babri Masjid (1992), and Pakistan was grappling with internal instability. Nuclear weapons were a silent threat, not yet tested, but very real. The CIA analysts saw a slim "20 per cent" chance of full-scale war. But what worried them was the chain reaction - miscalculation, provocation, retaliation. A major terrorist incident, a misread military exercise, or sudden communal riots could trigger it. The document also noted something critical - neither India nor Pakistan wanted war. But Pakistan, feeling dwarfed by India's growing power, was likely to act out of fear. This included supporting proxy groups in Kashmir or forming informal alliances with terrorists to offset India's influence. The report didn't name TRF. That group didn't exist back then. But it warned of Pakistan's strategy of arming and training anti-India terrorists to "liberate Kashmir." Pakistan's Strategic Fear At the core of the CIA report was an uncomfortable truth for Islamabad. The balance of power had already tilted in India's favour. Economically, militarily, and diplomatically, New Delhi was rising, and Pakistan couldn't catch up. The gap wasn't just in firepower; it was also in stability. India, for all its internal challenges, had stable governments and a growing economy. India was, at the time, led by Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, with Dr Manmohan Singh as the finance minister. Pakistan oscillated between military rule, political crises, and economic breakdowns. Fear, not confidence, drove its Kashmir policy. The CIA assessment explicitly said that a shift in military balance could push Pakistan to open nuclear deployment or seek asymmetric warfare. That included terrorism - low-cost, high-impact operations designed to bleed India without open confrontation. The 1993 document predicted that Pakistan might embrace Islamism not out of belief but as a tool. If an economic collapse came, or if a military dictator took charge, Pakistan could "join with militants" to distract the public and provoke India. It also warned that India's domestic politics - if dominated by religious polarisation - could fuel more communal unrest, making Pakistan's meddling easier to justify at home. The US' Role The NIE wasn't just for internal CIA use. It was meant to brief the White House and State Department. Bill Clinton had taken office, and South Asia was gaining attention. The former US President would visit India seven years later in 2000, right on the day of the Chittisinghpura Massacre, where Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) killed 35 Sikh villagers. The CIA warned to be careful. Confidence-building measures like hotlines and nuclear pacts were useful, but in a real crisis, they "might prove irrelevant." Verification was weak. Trust was thinner. Once violence began, leaders would rely on instinct, not protocol. The NIE also captured what the Pahalgam attack has now reignited: "a spectacular terrorist outrage that one side could attribute to the other" might be all it takes. Today, in Delhi, policymakers are flipping through that same scenario. More than thirty years later, the 1993 CIA document reads less like a historical paper and more like a warning label for the present.
Time of India
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
'Pak Birthplace Of Terror': CIA Veteran BLASTS Pakistan In Viral Speech Amid India Tensions
An old video of former CIA officer Bruce Riedel has resurfaced amid rising India-Pakistan tensions following the Pahalgam terror attack. In the viral clip, Riedel brands Pakistan 'the most dangerous country in the world,' accusing it of playing a 'unique role' in fueling global conflicts. He also labels Pakistan a 'state sponsor of terrorism' and the birthplace of Lashkar-e-Taiba. The remarks have reignited debate over Pakistan's role in cross-border terrorism, further validating India's long-standing accusations. This comes just days after a probe revealed that Hashim Musa, one of the terrorists behind the Pahalgam massacre that killed 26 people, was a former Pakistani army commando.#pakistan #terrorism #cia #exciaofficial #india #PAHALGAM
