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CBC
6 days ago
- Politics
- CBC
The nuclear arms race is heating up. Will it take another bomb to renew the push for disarmament?
Eighty years after the first atomic bombs fell, experts and survivors warn that the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki could once again be unleashed, as the nuclear arms race heats up. "Most experts believe that the risk of nuclear use is rising, and in some cases rising dramatically," said Joseph Cirincione, a national security analyst who has worked on nuclear non-proliferation for decades. "The same drivers that we saw in the '50s and '60s that fuelled the arms race are now reasserting themselves … and we don't have the public pressure to counter them," he told The Sunday Magazine. In January, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists updated its Doomsday Clock to read 89 seconds to midnight, where 12:00 represents the moment of humanity's destruction. The organization considered factors like climate change and advances in AI, but also highlighted conflict in the Middle East and the potential for nuclear escalation in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Cirincione said that all nine nations with nuclear weapons — the U.S., Russia, the U.K., France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea — are currently increasing or modernizing their arsenals or delivery systems. He added that France is considering extending its nuclear umbrella over other EU nations, increasing the scope of deterrence but also potential conflict. And countries like South Korea are considering building their own weapons for the first time, fearing that they can no longer rely on the U.S. for protection. : How close is Iran to a nuclear bomb? 1 month ago In June, Israel and the U.S. targeted Iranian nuclear and military sites, resulting in a 12-day conflict. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to be moved in response to "inflammatory statements" from former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. All of this comes after "a good 40 years of reductions in nuclear arsenals," Cirincione said, adding that it has always taken "public pressure to move the politicians in the right direction." He says he thinks that public pressure is absent today because people took for granted the trend toward disarmament and began to focus on other pressing issues, like climate change. He said that among some experts and campaigners, there is now a feeling of pessimism that it might take the unthinkable to renew the disarmament push. "The view is basically we may need to see a nuclear detonation before the public's alerted to the threat and motivated to mobilize," he said. "Some fear we may need to go through the horror of seeing them being used." WATCH: Keeping the stories of Hiroshima alive: Keeping the stories of Hiroshima alive 75 years after bombing 5 years ago 'My beloved city just flattened' Japanese Canadian Setsuko Thurlow was 13 and living in Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, when the U.S. detonated an atomic bomb over the quarter of a million people who lived there. She says she remembers a blinding flash of light, and then felt like she was floating. When she crawled out from under a collapsing building, everything around her was rubble and flame. "My beloved city just flattened and burned with one bomb. And 351 schoolmates, they were all burned to death, alive," she said. She remembers her four-year-old nephew "transformed into a melted chunk of flesh." Three days later, a second nuclear bomb was detonated over the Japanese city of Nagasaki. The two blasts combined killed approximately 120,000 people instantly and tens of thousands more in the years that followed. Japan's surrender was announced on Aug. 15, bringing an end to the Second World War. WATCH: Hiroshima survivor recounts horror of atomic blast: Hiroshima survivor recounts horror of atomic blast 80 years ago 16 hours ago A survivor of the world's first nuclear attack describes the horrific day and aftermath 80 years ago — Aug. 6, 1945 — when the U.S. dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima, Japan, that killed an estimated 140,000 people. Thurlow, who is 93, married a Canadian in 1950 and now lives in Toronto. She has worked for decades as a campaigner against nuclear weapons and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017 for her work with the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. Author and journalist Garrett Graff said this year's 80th anniversary is "especially poignant" for many people, because so few survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain. "I think it is up to us to carry forward their vision and dream of ensuring that … this remains the last and only time we use nuclear weapons," said Graff, author of The Devil Reached Toward the Sky: An Oral History of the Making and Unleashing of the Atomic Bomb. Nuclear cash could help other problems Thurlow shares the concerns that another nuclear strike could be "getting closer and closer," and says Canada isn't doing enough to push back on nuclear proliferation, despite polls showing that a majority of Canadians want nuclear weapons eliminated. "I have had serious concern that the government has not been responding to the will of the people," she said, adding that she wants to see Canada regain its "worldwide respect and reputation as a peace builder." The Sunday Magazine contacted the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to ask what Canada is doing about the global proliferation of nuclear arms, but was referred to Global Affairs Canada. GAC did not respond to a request for comment by deadline. Cirincione said in the 1980s, millions of people around the world took part in demonstrations against nuclear weapons. He says he thinks the push for disarmament could be revived if it can be merged with other movements for change. "You want to increase health care, you want to increase education? Where are you gonna get the money?" he said. The answer might lie in high global spending on nuclear weapons, he said, "that could provide a big source of the money you need for human needs, not human destruction."
Forbes
30-06-2025
- Science
- Forbes
Enjoy TikTok Explainers? These Old-Fashioned Diagrams Are A Whole Lot Smarter
In the aftermath of Hiroshima, many of the scientists who built the atomic bomb changed the way they reckoned time. Their conception of the future was published on the cover of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists , which portrayed a clock set at seven minutes to midnight. In subsequent months and years, the clock sometimes advanced. Other times, the hands fell back. With this simple indication, the timepiece tracked the likelihood of nuclear annihilation. Although few of the scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project are still alive, the Doomsday Clock remains operational, steadfastly translating risk into units of hours and minutes. Over time, the diagram has become iconic, and not only for subscribers to The Bulletin. It's now so broadly recognizable that we may no longer recognize what makes it radical. John Auldjo. Map of Vesuvius showing the direction of the streams of lava in the eruptions from 1631 to 1831, 1832. Exhibition copy from a printed book In John Auldjo, Sketches of Vesuvius: with Short Accounts of Its Principal Eruptions from the Commencement of the Christian Era to the Present Time (Napoli: George Glass, 1832). Olschki 53, plate before p. 27, Biblioteca Nazionale Centrale di Firenze, Firenze. Courtesy Ministero della Cultura – Biblioteca Nazionale Centrale di Firenze. Any unauthorized reproduction by any means whatsoever is prohibited. Biblioteca Nazionale Centrale di Firenze A thrilling new exhibition at the Fondazione Prada brings the Doomsday Clock back into focus. Featuring hundreds of diagrams from the past millennium, ranging from financial charts to maps of volcanic eruptions, the exhibition provides the kind of survey that brings definition to an entire category of visual communication. Each work benefits from its association with others that are manifestly different in form and function. According to the exhibition curators, a diagram as 'a graphic design that explains rather than represents; a drawing that shows arrangement and relations'. In other words, a diagram is a picture with a purpose, and its purpose is at least one degree removed from the image presented. It can be understood only through transposition. If it corresponds to reality, it never does so literally. These qualities, which show how complex diagrams are as a mode of expression, are evident even when you look at some of the earliest examples in the exhibition. For instance, many of the anatomical charts from Medieval times and the Renaissance are inscribed not only with parts of the body but also with constellations. Astrological signs were believed to influence bodily functions. (Aries was typically associated with the head, Taurus with the neck, Gemini with the lungs, Scorpio with the groin.) The influences of the stars were physically invisible. Fitting the signs to anatomical features, diagrams depicting the so-called 'zodiac man' provided pictorial guidance to medical practices such as bleeding, while simultaneously reenforcing the animating idea of man as the cosmos in microcosm. The practice of superimposing disparate information has outlasted scientific acceptance of zodiac men. In fact, juxtaposition has advanced many disciplines by testing the explanations the graphics purport to illustrate. Diagrams give specificity to hypotheses, subjecting them to collective scrutiny. Presenting correlations across multiple dimensions, they expose meaningful patterns as well as false associations. The Fondazione Prada exhibition provides several compelling examples from epidemiology, including one of the most famous maps in the history of medicine: the diagram that revealed the cause of a cholera. In 1854, Dr. John Snow charted cholera cases in relation to the locations of London's neighborhood water pumps, showing a geographic overlap that revealed cholera to be a waterborne disease spread through contamination. His theory – now accepted as scientific fact – ran contrary to the medical consensus that cholera was a poisonous vapor, an illness contracted by breathing. The older hypothesis, known as miasma theory, had also been charted. One especially impressive diagram was prepared by Dr. Henry Wentworth Acland, who showed British cholera cases in relation to temperature, precipitation, and barometric pressure. Although Acland's bar chart did not disprove the theory he sought to bolster, it provided little explanatory power, far less than was conveyed by Snow's famous map. Attempting to show that cholera was modulated by climate, Acland inadvertently contributed to the miasma's demise. The contrast between Acland's graph and Snow's map demonstrates both the value of data and the significance of format. Explanations are aesthetically experienced. Snow could have reached his conclusion with bars of different lengths instead of geographic coordinates, but the cause of cholera probably wouldn't have been as readily apparent, and the presentation certainly wouldn't have been as compellingly persuasive. Of course, persuasion isn't always felicitous. When data are carelessly used or callously manipulated, persuasiveness can be downright dangerous, the crux of political propaganda. Assessing a diagram requires critical thinking. But the Prada exhibition presents at least as many instances in which diagrams have advanced political principles and positions with incisiveness generally lacking in political discourse. W.E.B. Du Bois. Conjugal condition of American Negroes according to age periods, c. 1900. Exhibition copy of a statistical chart illustrating the condition of the descendants of former African slaves now in residence in the United States of America, Atlanta University. Ink and watercolor on paper. Daniel Murray Collection, Prints and Photographs Division, Library of Congress, Washington, D.C. Courtesy Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division Washington, D.C., Daniel Murray Collection Library of Congress, One of the greatest practitioners of the 20th century was the sociologist and civil rights activist W.E.B. Du Bois. In a set of diagrams prepared for the 1900 Paris Exposition, Du Bois showed the fortunes of Blacks in the United States since emancipation. What is most striking about this series is the impact of the work as a whole. This is all the more surprising given that each diagram is highly particular, practically sui generis . One shows the 'assessed value of household and kitchen furniture owned by Georgia Negroes'. Another shows 'race amalgamation in Georgia based on a study of 40,000 individuals of Negro descent'. There are charts tracking literacy, migration, and taxation. These charts do not overlap in the way that Snow superimposed cholera and water pumps. They could not comprehensibly be assimilated into a single diagram. Instead they use a shared visual language to connect different dimensions of the African-American experience, constructing a multifaceted reality with novelistic acumen. Each chart is descriptive. The explanatory power of Du Bois' project emerges as the eyes move restlessly between them. The Doomsday Clock is also political, picturing conditions that collectively contribute to the irreducible reality of a world in peril. In recent years, the editors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have added factors ranging from climate change to artificial intelligence into their temporal calculus. All of these explain present conditions and must inform political decisions. Yet there is an important difference between the cover of the Bulletin and Du Bois's contribution to the Paris Exposition. If the former has the expository breadth of a graphic novel, the latter has the semantic compression of a concrete poem. Our command of apocalyptic technologies necessitates a new kind of relationship with history, a responsibility for all possible futures that is visually expressed in the restless movements of the clock's hours and minutes. What the Doomsday Clock lacks in mechanistic explanation of risk, the graphic makes up for by exposing our influence over the end of time. Each and every person is an existential threat in microcosm.
Daily Mail
05-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Mail
15 US cities that are likely targets of a nuclear attack
With a deadly conflict in the Middle East, Russia still waging its invasion of Ukraine, and China on the brink of invading Taiwan, the world has arguably not been this close to war in a century. But while Americans are on the other side of the globe, the US would not be safe from a nuclear war, experts warn. Russia has an arsenal of more than 5,900 warheads capable of reaching the US in about 30 minutes. At the same time, China has a stockpile of more than 500 aimed at the nation's west coast. Financial experts believe 15 cities would be high-priority targets if a foreign adversary decided to launch a nuclear campaign against America. These spots are likely targets because of population density, air distance to a strategic military facility, emergency preparedness, and ease of evacuation. The nation's capital ranked as the most highly valued target due to being America's defense hub, followed by the largest metropolitan area, New York, according to an analysis conducted by 24/7 Wall Street, an independent financial news source. The group conducted the report using research from Dr. Irwin Redlener, a professor at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health. Redlener previously identified six economic regions that are potential targets of enemy nukes. These spots were combined with 15 strategic military targets determined by Stephen Schwartz, who is part of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and co-authored 'The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940.' Schwartz's targets include command centers, ICBM bases, and air force and submarine bases. Members of 24/7 Wall Street then evaluated all the spots, ranking them on population, how prepared they were for emergencies, distance in miles to the strategic military target using Google Maps, and ease of evacuation. The team then used a nuclear detonation simulator, Nukemap, and dropped a one-megaton bomb to see the damage and casualties. Most Americans believe the country's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch facilities (silos), located in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota and Wyoming, would be an enemy's priority. And while this may be true, opposing countries may also be looking at where would cause the most damage and fatalities. 1. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria: This region is the most dangerous because it is the heart of democracy, home to the US government, the White House and the Pentagon, which was a target in the 9/11 attacks. This region is home to more than 6.1 million people, putting the area with the fourth highest population among the group of 15. The experts ranked the capital as the fifth worst among evacuations and predicted there would be more than 461,000 deaths and over 924,000 injured when bombed. 2. New York City-Newark-Jersey City: Manhattan being a target may not be a surprise due to it also being hit during the 9/11 attacks. Not only is it the most populated city in America, but it is also the symbol of Western values and capitalism. A bomb dropped in New York City would impact Newark and Jersey City, both in New Jersey, which sits across the Hudson River. However, this is the nation's largest metropolitan area, home to more than nine million people. The report ranked the area as the second worst for evacuations and predicted there would be 1.7 million deaths and 3.1 injuries. 3. San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, California: The Bay area is another large metropolitan region in the US, with 18,629 people per square mile. Surrounded by the San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean, evacuating the three cities would not be accessible if a one-megaton nuke is dropped - it ranked third worst. This region has nearly two million people who call it home. The projected casualties could hit more than 507,000, with 582,870 injured. 4. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois: Chicago may not sound like a likely target to many, but this Illinois city is located within 50 miles of four nuclear power plants. Naperville and Elgin are within 40 miles of the Windy City, meaning they would also be hit in the event of a nuclear attack. The region ranked fourth out of the 15 in evacuations for its more than two million residents. Experts predicted the attack would cause 626,170 deaths and more than 1.1 million injuries. 5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, California: The bustling region of California is known for its Hollywood stars and gorgeous beaches but could also be a high-priority enemy target. The three cities are about 26 miles from each other, with more than four million people. This part of California would be a target because it is the second-largest metropolitan economy in the US. The report ranked this area as the fifth worst in evacuations, which would lead to 645,750 deaths and more than 1.6 million injuries. 7. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington: The Washington State region is 30 miles from the Naval Base Kitsap, the largest naval organization in the northwest area, and 46 miles from Naval Radio Station Jim Creek, a radio transmitting facility. These government facilities make the region a possible target in a nuclear attack that would kill more than 53,000 people and injure over 106,000. The three cities combined have more than one million residents, situated in mountains that would make it difficult for evacuation - experts ranked it the eighth worst. 8. Urban Honolulu, Hawaii: Hawaii made headlines in 2018 when residents received an emergency alert that read: 'Ballistic Missile threat inbound to Hawaii. Seek Shelter. This is not a drill.' While the notification was sent accidentally, experts believe Honolulu is a candidate for an attack on the US. The small island is the closest to China, making it an easy target, and is home to three military bases. And being surrounded by the Pacific Ocean made Honolulu the worst for evacuations. Data shows 354,510 people live in the city, and a one-megaton bomb dropped in the area would kill 20,920 people, leaving 56,710 injured. 9. Omaha, Nebraska: The Midwest city is 10 miles south of the Offutt Aire Force Base, which served as an aerial command center in case nukes dropped during the Cold War. The command center is where President George W. Bush was flown during the 9/11 attacks. With the technology and military personnel in place, the report believes the enemy would eye Omaha. The report ranked the Nebraska town as 13th in evacuation and predicted about 34,000 casualties and 140,000 injuries. 10. Ogden-Clearfield, Utah: These two cities are also located near a military base - the Hill Air Force Base. This military facility is the second largest in population and size and supports the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center. Experts predicted that a nuclear bomb would cause 87,140 deaths and 1570,570 injuries, ranking it the ninth worst city for evacuations. 11. Albuquerque, New Mexico: The New Mexico city primarily comprises the Kirtland Air Force Base, the headquarters of the Air Force Global Strike Command's largest installation, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center. More than 562,000 people live in the city, which ranked the 11th worst for evacuations. Experts predicted a nuclear bomb would cause 11,200 deaths and 157,630 injuries. 12. Colorado Springs, Colorado: Colorado is part of the US's 'nuclear sponge - a site deliberately set up by the government during the Cold War. In the event of an attack, bombs would fall on sparsely populated areas. And by design, Colorado Springs is a prime target for a Russian attack. More than 483,000 people live in the city, with an elevation of more than 6,035 feet. The report ranked Colorado Springs as the 10th worst in evacuation, likely due to the rugged landscape. And predicted that 28,400 deaths and 133,060 injuries would occur if hit. 13. Great Falls, Montana: Montana is also a nuclear sponge, being home to hundreds of hidden missile silos and launch facilities. But the report looked closely at Great Falls because it is six miles from Malmstrom Air Force Base, one of three facilities that maintains nukes in the US. With 2,614 people per square mile, experts predicted an attack would leave 17,920 dead and 22,920 injured. Great Falls was also ranked 14th worst in evacuations. 14. Cheyenne, Wyoming: Wyoming is another state meant to be a nuclear sponge - it has been home to nukes since the 1960s Francis E, Warren Air Force base houses the combat-ready force three miles west of Cheyenne. The city is surrounded by mountains, making it the worst for evacuations, according to the report. With 2,019 people per square mile, experts speculated a bomb would kill 27,320 people and leave 36,550 injured. 15. Shreveport-Bossier City, Louisiana: The metropolitan region has a population of 385,154 and is located five miles within the Barksdale Air Force Base, home to three squadrons of B-52H Stratofortress bombers. These warplanes are capable of flying at high subsonic speeds and can carry nuclear weapons - making this area a prime spot for an attack. Evacuation would be difficult because it sits near the Gulf of Mexico - ranked the 12th worst. If bombs were dropped, 24,150 people would die, and another 103,560 would be injured, according to the analysis.
