Latest news with #CERAWeek2025
Forbes
29-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
American Energy Policy: Going Against The Market Trends
The administration's goals of energy dominance and energy affordability are easy to support. Our leaders intend to provide the people with cheap energy and good jobs, for which they favor coal, oil and natural gas over solar and other renewables. ('Drill Baby Drill!') Energy strategy, national security, and environmental policies are all implicitly linked. The new administration has shifted direction on energy strategy at the expense of the environment, skeptical that renewables will help meet our energy needs. They view fossil fuels as secure and affordable, and the transition to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by 2050 a 'harmful and dangerous' strategy. Even without any concern for climate change, market forces are now enough to drive corporations and societies to expand the use of alternatives to hydrocarbons. Interesting and lucrative breakthroughs are happening in the sectors of energy production and storage. As an American Patriot, I would love for American scientists and engineers to be the ones leading the global pivot to nuclear fusion, a long-term goal as recently stated by our new Energy Secretary. As Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated at CERAWeek 2025, 'Energy is the enabler of everything that we do. Everything. Energy is not A sector of the economy; it is the sector that enables every other sector. Energy is life.' The next question then would be how to secure our energy supply. Secretary Wright recognizes that nuclear power, both fission and fusion, will be the production methods of the future. He even claims that an American fusion plant could be running during this administration. How can we meet our needs in this transition? For our friends and allies in Germany, solar combined with batteries is now more cost effective than gas powered power plants. Advances in recent years have made solar panels one of the cheapest and most versatile sources of electricity. Recent advances in battery technology are addressing the intermittency of variable renewable energy like wind and solar, while nuclear expansion is a focal point for advanced economies. We're seeing an inflection point in global energy generation, where for many nations, coal and oil are no longer the cheapest options. Natural gas will be necessary for a time, but it will be a component in a diverse energy landscape. It's clear that while renewables expand, we will still use some hydrocarbons. The IEA's World Energy Outlook estimates fossil fuel use will peak globally by 2030. In 2024, solar and wind generated more electricity than coal in both America and the EU. The green technology revolution is happening, and it's the most capitalized and advanced economies that are investing in clean technologies. They're the future of the global economy, and purely from a technological dominance and competitiveness perspective, we as a nation need to maintain the edge on advanced research. The future of energy production, storage and transmission are central to the future of our national security and economic stability. As the energy think tank Ember observes, building new infrastructure for fossil fuels is like renting. The fuel costs will be continuous and higher than maintenance on clean energy infrastructure. Clean energy in a productive investment like buying a house, one big purchase, a pay off point, and then pure return on investment. In this instance, the investment can be recovered in a year. Expanding into renewables doesn't mean the immediate abandonment of all fossil fuels. Strategic petroleum reserves will continue to be important, and other hydrocarbons have specific uses that can't be immediately replaced. Yet, this reasonable premise is different from the idea that we can't, or shouldn't, further diversify into economically viable renewables. We realists can agree that we want to keep using natural gas and other fossil fuels for where it's necessary, but for cost considerations and energy security, we don't need to make them the first choice at every turn. Nor should we cease research into future potential alternatives. Innovation will continue to be key in developing technologies and answering some questions, but to say that there's no hope for green technology is false. As we continue to work toward this inevitability, why can't we regain the status of global innovators, responsible for the upcoming breakthroughs in efficient power grids, batteries, direct ocean capture, or any of the other societally beneficial and lucrative technologies that will be produced, refined, and globally expanded over the next few decades?
Forbes
17-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Implications And Scenarios If U.S. Oil Production Plateaus In 2027
An oil drilling rig along the Pecos River in the Permian Basin, Loving, New Mexico, U.S. (Photo: Jim ... More West) Conjecture about when U.S. oil production may plateau is not new. Many in the industry, including several energy bosses, reckon the country's output - currently north of 13.5 million and the highest in the world - will continue to rise at least until 2027. In March, at CERAWeek 2025, a major energy event organized by S&P Global, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance and Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub joined many of their industry peers in predicting a U.S. crude production plateau sometime between 2027 and 2030. Now the Energy Information Administration, statistical arm of the Department of Energy, has also predicted that a 2027 production plateau sounds fairly plausible. In its Annual Energy Outlook 2025 published on Wednesday, the EIA said U.S. production will rise to 14 million bpd in 2027, and may likely stabilize at or near that level for a few years up until the early 2030s, before a gradual decline comes into view. After that, a further decline may happen at a much faster rate through to the 2050s as the uptick from the U.S. shale bonanza starts to ebb away. Shale production itself is also expected to peak in 2027. It draws the contribution of U.S. shale industry into sharp focus. In 2024, U.S. output grew on an annualized basis by 2%, or by 270,000 bpd, to average around 13.2 million bpd. Nearly all the production growth came from the Permian region, which accounted for nearly half of total U.S. crude oil production, according to the EIA. Shale production is expected hit a record of 10 million bpd by 2027, up from 9.7 million bpd expected in 2025. Thereafter, it may well be on a sliding track down to 9.33 million bpd by 2050. Commenting on the EIA's projections, the DoE criticized the previous Biden Administration and flagged President Donald Trump's pro oil credentials since he took office in January. "The report reflects the disastrous path for American energy production under the Biden administration - a path that was soundly rejected by the American people last November. "By unleashing energy that is affordable, reliable, and secure, this administration is ensuring America's future is marked by energy growth and abundance - not scarcity." As things stand, the U.S. remains the world's leading oil producer, a crown it bagged toward the end of 2023 and continues to hold. It may continue to bag that title till at least the turn of the decade, if not longer. However, Saudi Arabia is sitting on spare capacity of 3 million bpd and could be in a position to challenge the U.S. if the latter's decline rate is deeper than forecast. Becuase despite the U.S. shale bonanza, the Saudis remain the world's buffer producers, i.e., they hold a large amount of spare capacity that can be used to absorb supply shocks and stabilize oil prices. Overall, a market adjustment may be required by importers of light sweet crude out in Asia, from the Indian subcontinent to the East. Many are currently enjoying being in the position of being able to import readily available and competitively priced U.S. light sweet crudes. But there is belief in the wider industry that U.S. output decline is likely to be gradual and may be mitigated through technology. For instance, Lance of ConocoPhillips predicted at CERAWeek that will be a slow decline beyond 2030 and technology can help with resource maximization. "Of course, market share for OPEC+ will start rising again as U.S. oil production starts to plateau and demand continues to rise as we think it will over time. But there's a ton of resources in the U.S. I've never been against this industry in terms of technology because you can always figure out a way to get more resource out of the rock."
Forbes
28-03-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Why Leaders Want To Make America Great At Energy Storage
WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 14: U.S. President Donald Trump, accompanied by senior staff, including ... More Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Wright has echoed Trump's enthusiasm for natural gas, citing the inability of wind and solar energy to provide similar baseload power. (Photo by) The Trump Administration is skeptical about green energy, to put it mildly. The remarks of U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright at CERAWeek 2025, the most influential energy conference in the U.S., summarized one of the key reasons, "Beyond the obvious scale and cost problems, there is simply no physical way that wind, solar, and batteries could replace the myriad uses of natural gas." While this statement highlights one of the limits to scaling renewables, there are still several reasons for U.S. industry to make a concerted effort to remain at the forefront of battery storage. Although currently unable to support a wholesale energy transition, battery storage can help reduce electricity costs, compete with rivals technologically, and ensure that Chinese interests are excluded when batteries are powering critical infrastructure and industries. Balancing electricity demand and supply is crucial for grid resiliency. Too much or too little power can lead to blackouts and damage infrastructure. This is why renewables face a unique challenge called intermittency — their energy generation depends on natural phenomena such as clouds, wind strength, or time of the day, that don't align with electricity demand. Energy storage can mitigate these uncertainties by storing the excess energy produced by renewables during peak hours for use when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. However, keeping energy costs down is a challenge. Storage is key to reducing the cost of energy for consumers and businesses by storing energy when prices are low and discharging it during peak electricity demand hours when prices are high – whether that energy is produced by renewals or natural gas. In California, for example, the increase in storage capacity has reduced curtailment, a term for diminished solar generation, and stabilized electricity pricing. Energy storage also plays a vital role in enhancing energy security. First, it provides backup power during emergencies, ensuring that critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, emergency services, and communication networks, remains operational. This is especially important during extreme weather events and potential cyberattacks. Secondly, it is a pivotal technology for the U.S. to maintain its energy dominance and stay ahead in the renewable energy race. China's production of lithium batteries presents an economic and security threat to the United ... More States, making it imperative that the U.S. develops its own manufacturing capacity. (Photo by AFP) / China OUT (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images) Currently, Chinese lithium batteries are among the best in the market, contributing to Beijing's leadership in the renewables sector and the electric vehicle industry. This opens the U.S. and other countries to geoeconomic and security risks should providers opt to use Chinese utility-scale batteries. If the U.S. does not develop better indigenous energy storage, it risks ceding its manufacturing and energy leadership to China and opening electrical grids to disruption. These factors are expected to drive record-high investments in energy storage in 2025. European countries are investing €80 billion to expand battery capacity by 2030. China, the global leader in renewable investments, is projected to quadruple its battery storage capacity in 2025 according to reported projections from Wood Mackenzie. The U.S. is set to add a record 18.2 GW of utility-scale battery storage in 2025. It is not only developed markets but also emerging ones that are anticipated to make substantial investments, with Saudi Arabia notably taking 7th place globally in capacity addition. Other emerging markets, such as Turkey and Bulgaria, are also expected to see significant investments. As the cost of batteries continues to fall, demand will rise, and global competition in the battery sector will follow. As demand for large-scale storage rises, countries are competing to enhance their capacity, which drives the development of innovative technologies. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries lead the market, but lithium extraction presents social and environmental concerns, in addition to geopolitical challenges. China, Australia, and Chile account for 90% of lithium production globally. Many companies are looking for both alternative suppliers and new technologies that address Li-ion's limitations, like its comparatively short lifespan. Energy Vault, for example, is one of the leading companies in gravity-based storage, offering a longer lifespan than lithium batteries and scalability across different regions and topographies, unlike hydroelectric power. This system stores energy by lifting heavy composite blocks to an elevated position using surplus electricity. The stored potential energy is released by lowering the blocks, which powers a generator via gravity. A gravity-based energy storage tower, constructed by Energy Vault, is used for grid scale ... More operations, demonstrating an alternative to lithium-Ion batteries. Another company looking to offer an alternative is Quidnet Energy, which is working on Geomechanical Energy Storage (GES) to achieve a longer lifespan and a more cost-effective solution. This approach stores energy by pumping water into underground rock formations under high pressure. When energy is needed, the pressurized water flows through a turbine to generate electricity, similar to pumped hydro but utilizing underground reservoirs instead of surface-level infrastructure. As battery prices have dropped significantly, solar energy is now cheaper than ever, and these technologies are expected to become less expensive over time. As renewables expand globally, the U.S. risks falling behind in this race unless companies invest in energy storage. Even as America shifts its focus toward hydrocarbons and exports, advancing energy storage technology must remain a priority. While the current battery storage may not be a suitable replacement for hydrocarbons or nuclear, it is a strategic necessity for maintaining competitiveness both technologically and geopolitically.
Forbes
27-03-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Make America Great At Energy Storage
WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 14: U.S. President Donald Trump, accompanied by senior staff, including ... More Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Wright has echoed Trump's enthusiasm for natural gas, citing the inability of wind and solar energy to provide similar baseload power. (Photo by) The Trump Administration is skeptical about green energy, to put it mildly. The remarks of U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright at CERAWeek 2025, the most influential energy conference in the U.S., summarized one of the key reasons, "Beyond the obvious scale and cost problems, there is simply no physical way that wind, solar, and batteries could replace the myriad uses of natural gas." While this statement highlights one of the limits to scaling renewables, there are still several reasons for U.S. industry to make a concerted effort to remain at the forefront of battery storage. Although currently unable to support a wholesale energy transition, battery storage can help reduce electricity costs, compete with rivals technologically, and ensure that Chinese interests are excluded when batteries are powering critical infrastructure and industries. Balancing electricity demand and supply is crucial for grid resiliency. Too much or too little power can lead to blackouts and damage infrastructure. This is why renewables face a unique challenge called intermittency — their energy generation depends on natural phenomena such as clouds, wind strength, or time of the day, that don't align with electricity demand. Energy storage can mitigate these uncertainties by storing the excess energy produced by renewables during peak hours for use when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. However, keeping energy costs down is a challenge. Storage is key to reducing the cost of energy for consumers and businesses by storing energy when prices are low and discharging it during peak electricity demand hours when prices are high – whether that energy is produced by renewals or natural gas. In California, for example, the increase in storage capacity has reduced curtailment, a term for diminished solar generation, and stabilized electricity pricing. Energy storage also plays a vital role in enhancing energy security. First, it provides backup power during emergencies, ensuring that critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, emergency services, and communication networks, remains operational. This is especially important during extreme weather events and potential cyberattacks. Secondly, it is a pivotal technology for the U.S. to maintain its energy dominance and stay ahead in the renewable energy race. China's production of lithium batteries presents an economic and security threat to the United ... More States, making it imperative that the U.S. develops its own manufacturing capacity. (Photo by AFP) / China OUT (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images) Currently, Chinese lithium batteries are among the best in the market, contributing to Beijing's leadership in the renewables sector and the electric vehicle industry. This opens the U.S. and other countries to geoeconomic and security risks should providers opt to use Chinese utility-scale batteries. If the U.S. does not develop better indigenous energy storage, it risks ceding its manufacturing and energy leadership to China and opening electrical grids to disruption. These factors are expected to drive record-high investments in energy storage in 2025. European countries are investing €80 billion to expand battery capacity by 2030. China, the global leader in renewable investments, is projected to quadruple its battery storage capacity in 2025 according to reported projections from Wood Mackenzie. The U.S. is set to add a record 18.2 GW of utility-scale battery storage in 2025. It is not only developed markets but also emerging ones that are anticipated to make substantial investments, with Saudi Arabia notably taking 7th place globally in capacity addition. Other emerging markets, such as Turkey and Bulgaria, are also expected to see significant investments. As the cost of batteries continues to fall, demand will rise, and global competition in the battery sector will follow. As demand for large-scale storage rises, countries are competing to enhance their capacity, which drives the development of innovative technologies. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries lead the market, but lithium extraction presents social and environmental concerns, in addition to geopolitical challenges. China, Australia, and Chile account for 90% of lithium production globally. Many companies are looking for both alternative suppliers and new technologies that address Li-ion's limitations, like its comparatively short lifespan. Energy Vault, for example, is one of the leading companies in gravity-based storage, offering a longer lifespan than lithium batteries and scalability across different regions and topographies, unlike hydroelectric power. This system stores energy by lifting heavy composite blocks to an elevated position using surplus electricity. The stored potential energy is released by lowering the blocks, which powers a generator via gravity. A gravity-based energy storage tower, constructed by Energy Vault, is used for grid scale ... More operations, demonstrating an alternative to lithium-Ion batteries. Another company looking to offer an alternative is Quidnet Energy, which is working on Geomechanical Energy Storage (GES) to achieve a longer lifespan and a more cost-effective solution. This approach stores energy by pumping water into underground rock formations under high pressure. When energy is needed, the pressurized water flows through a turbine to generate electricity, similar to pumped hydro but utilizing underground reservoirs instead of surface-level infrastructure. As battery prices have dropped significantly, solar energy is now cheaper than ever, and these technologies are expected to become less expensive over time. As renewables expand globally, the U.S. risks falling behind in this race unless companies invest in energy storage. Even as America shifts its focus toward hydrocarbons and exports, advancing energy storage technology must remain a priority. While the current battery storage may not be a suitable replacement for hydrocarbons or nuclear, it is a strategic necessity for maintaining competitiveness both technologically and geopolitically.
Gulf Insider
17-03-2025
- Business
- Gulf Insider
Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over The Future Of Oil
At CERAWeek 2025, Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser challenged the IEA's forecast of peak oil demand. The IEA maintained that even with peak demand, ongoing investments in oil and gas will be necessary due to natural field declines. Aramco's ambitious plans to scale blue hydrogen and ammonia face high costs and weak market demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. With the CERAWeek 2025 conference in Houston drawing to a close, C-Suite executives, ministers and top officials have weighed in on the trajectory of the global oil and gas sector with experts debating whether tariffs, trade, and competition will replace security, affordability, and sustainability in shaping energy markets and policy. However, one of the biggest highlights of the conference has been the showdown between Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol and their highly divergent views on the future of the global oil industry. Once again, the Aramco CEO was adamant that there were 'inherent flaws' in the energy transition away from conventional fuels, saying, ' So I pay little attention to forecasts claiming that next year will be peak this, or peak that ,' in a thinly-veiled dig at the IEA which has predicted a peak in oil demand by the end of the current decade. In its defense, the IEA says an oil demand peak doesn't necessarily mean a rapid plunge in fossil fuel consumption is imminent, adding that it will probably be followed by ' an undulating plateau lasting for many years .' Indeed, Fatih Birol reiterated that position in his remarks to the Houston conference, where he said investments in existing oil and gas fields are still needed to counter steep natural declines. Whereas some analysts interpreted this as an about-face, designed to pander to Trump and his 'drill baby drill' agenda, in reality the IEA has never advocated for an end to investments in upstream oil and gas. ' Even as demand for fossil fuels falls, energy security challenges will remain since the process of adjustment to changing demand patterns will not necessarily be easy or smooth. For example, the peaks in demand we see based on today's policies do not remove the need for investment in oil and gas supply, given how steep the natural declines from existing fields often are ,' the IEA stated in its 2023 World Energy Outlook. Republican lawmakers have threatened to reassess funding for the IEA, accusing it of becoming an 'energy transition cheerleader.' With the global energy transition picking up steam, hundreds of companies have laid out plans to cut their greenhouse gas emissions with the more ambitious ones pledging to achieve net zero emissions. Given this backdrop, Big Oil companies are finding themselves in a dilemma whereby they are under pressure to join the fight against climate change at a time when demand for the energy commodities they produce remains high. Not surprisingly, many are coming up with innovative ways to clean up their act without giving up their legacy businesses. Saudi Aramco is not any different. The world's biggest oil and gas company has unveiled plans to reach net-zero by 2050 without sacrificing oil and gas production. During a rare two-day visit by Fortune last May, the world's largest fossil fuel company lifted the curtain on dozens of research projects underway at its headquarters in Dhahran, in eastern Saudi Arabia, which the company believes will help it tackle climate change, even while pumping a mammoth 9 million barrels or so of oil a day. Aramco claims its tech breakthroughs have the potential to cut carbon emissions from each barrel of oil it produces by 15% by 2035, equivalent to 51.1 million tons of carbon a year. ' We don't see any contradiction. Combating emissions from these conventional energy sources is a very viable option ,' says Ashraf Al-Ghazzawi, Aramco's executive vice president for strategy and corporate development. ' We need all sources of energy to meet the growth in demand, which is just tremendous in the developing world. The main pillar of our strategy and technology is efficiency and optimization of our existing production ,' he told Fortune. According to Khowaiter, the company has tripled its research-and-development staff since 2010, and listed 1,033 patents with the U.S. patent office. Aramco now spends about $800 million a year on R&D, 60% of which is focused on 'sustainability'. Carbon capture is one of the technologies Aramco has adopted to cut emissions. At its Hawiyah gas plant, the company captures carbon emitted during oil and gas production; transports it 50 miles away then injects it into an oil well to boost the recovery of crude, as well as to store the carbon. Khowaiter revealed that the company aims to cut the cost of carbon capture by 50%, making it commercially viable. In December, Saudi Aramco signed a shareholders' agreement with Linde Plc (NYSE:LIN) and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) for dthe evelopment of a 9mn t/y CCS hub at Jubail. Under the agreement, Aramco will hold 60%, with Linde and SLB each taking 20%. The 9mn t/y first-phase facility is due online by end-2027. Aramco also aims to produce 11 million tonnes of blue ammonia from its Jafurah natural gas field by 2030. For over a decade, the company has explored potential technologies to produce lower-carbon hydrogen from hydrocarbons, including Thermo-Neutral Reforming (TNR) with a goal to produce 'blue' hydrogen from about two million tonnes of blue hydrogen–by capturing the CO2 emissions from the production. However, Aramco is likely to struggle to find a buyer for its blue ammonia, with CEO Amin Nasser revealing its blue hydrogen costs the equivalent of about $250 a barrel of oil– three times higher than the current Brent spot price. ' It is very difficult to identify any off-take agreement in Europe [for blue hydrogen]… and they explained it's because of the high cost. Even the customers in Japan and Korea [which are planning massive H 2 economies] are waiting for government incentives. Until they get these incentives, it'll be costly for them to pursue that blue hydrogen, ' Nasser told a call with analysts. Figuring out which among the multiple lines of R&D will finally work could take years for Aramco to determine, with time not on its side. Still, the company has rejected any notion that it should cut fossil fuel output, ' We were never an either-or company. Aramco provides a great example where emissions can be dealt with, it can be managed, ' Ghazzawi, Aramco's strategy chief, has declared.
