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Los Angeles Times
a day ago
- Climate
- Los Angeles Times
California tsunami: Here's where damage and casualties could be the worst
Tsunamis pose a risk to the entire California coast. But should a major one strike, how bad could it be? A single tsunami likely won't cause the worst-case scenario for every region. But in total, more than 680,000 Californians are in a tsunami hazard area during the daytime. And in all, $12.6 billion in damage is possible across California's 20 coastal and bayside counties — a figure that doesn't include damage to ports, harbors, roads, essential facilities or other infrastructure. There are two main types of scenarios for a tsunami. The first, a 'distant-source' tsunami, comes from far away, like one spawned by a major earthquake in Alaska. That would provide an extensive warning — six hours for L.A. and five hours for San Francisco — but could produce the highest level of inundation for large swaths of the state. Then there are 'near-source' tsunamis, which can wash ashore in as little as 10 minutes following a nearby earthquake — leaving little time for a notice or evacuation. Here are some scenarios for different parts of California. Unless otherwise mentioned, figures are from the California Tsunami Program, which is run by the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey. Distant-source tsunami: More than 350 people could die or be injured along the Southern California coast if people wait to evacuate half an hour after an official evacuation warning is given. That includes about 200 casualties in Los Angeles County, roughly 80 in San Diego County, 60 in Orange County and about a dozen in Ventura County. A hypothetical magnitude 9.3 earthquake from Alaska — similar in scale to the monstrous 1964 tsunami-generating temblor — would offer six hours of warning; large temblors from Chile could provide 13 hours of warning. The maximum projected distant-source tsunami could bring waves of 15 feet above the mean sea level to Marina del Rey, the Santa Monica Pier, Naples and Alamitos Bay; 14 feet elsewhere in other parts of Long Beach; 10 feet at Manhattan Beach, San Pedro and the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; 9 feet in Malibu, Redondo Beach and Palos Verdes Hills; and 8 feet at Leo Carrillo State Beach. Those estimates were issued by the California Geological Survey and published in the city of Los Angeles' hazard mitigation plan. Damage estimate from distant-source tsunami: More than $1.4 billion. Near-source tsunami: Los Angeles could see a tsunami move from its source to coastal areas in as few as 10 or 15 minutes, the city's tsunami plan warns. According to public documents, depending on the fault that ruptures, or where an underwater landslide is triggered, there could be locally generated tsunami heights of 30 feet in Avalon on Catalina Island; 24 feet at Palos Verdes Hills; 18 feet in Two Harbors; 11 feet in Redondo Beach; 9 feet in Malibu; 8 feet in Long Beach and the Santa Monica Pier; 7 feet in Manhattan Beach and San Pedro; 5 feet in Marina del Rey; and 4 feet at Leo Carrillo State Beach. In the city of Los Angeles, officials say that the most catastrophic scenario would involve an underwater landslide triggered by an earthquake, because 'we wouldn't know that that landslide would occur until the wave arrives,' said Jon Brown, assistant general manager for the city's Emergency Management Department. Other L.A. County areas with considerable vulnerability include the ports, as well as San Pedro and Long Beach. The city of Los Angeles has an estimated 23,000 residents in the tsunami hazard area. In Long Beach, the number is 31,000. Distant-source tsunami: More than 230 people could die or be injured if people wait half an hour to evacuate after an official warning is given. Santa Cruz County could see more than 130 casualties; San Luis Obispo County, about 80. The estimated potential casualty tolls could be 16 in Monterey County and seven in Santa Barbara County. Damage estimate from distant-source tsunami: More than $3.5 billion. Near-source tsunami: Santa Cruz and Monterey counties could see a tsunami within minutes following quake-triggered underwater landslides, documents from both counties say. 'Even a moderate earthquake could cause a local-source tsunami from submarine landsliding in Monterey Bay,' public documents say. A near-source tsunami could bring waves of up to 15 feet above the mean sea level in the city of Marina, 9 feet at the Salinas River; 8 feet at the Pajaro River and Sand City, just northeast of Monterey, and 6 feet at Moss Landing, according to data published in Monterey County's hazard mitigation plan. Such devastation would not be unprecedented. A large earthquake in the Santa Barbara area in 1812 resulted in a tsunami 'that wiped out many coastal villages and destroyed ships in the harbor,' according to the U.S. Geological Survey. And 7-foot waves resulted from a tsunami in 1927, generated by an earthquake about 5 miles west of the Santa Barbara County coast, according to the California Geological Survey. The USGS said there's evidence of deposits from underwater landslides offshore of Santa Barbara dating back over 160,000 years, which suggests that 'future earthquakes could cause large submarine landslides and devastating tsunamis.' Distant-source tsunami: More than 1,300 people could die or be injured if people wait half an hour to evacuate after an official warning is given. About 500 of them could be in San Francisco; about 300 apiece in San Mateo and Marin counties; nearly 200 in Alameda County and 33 in Contra Costa County. Just north of the region, in Mendocino County, five people could die or be injured in that scenario. A hypothetical tsunami-generating earthquake in Alaska could provide 5 hours of warning; one from Chile could provide 13 hours of warning. The maximum projected distant-source tsunami could result in tsunami of 32 feet above mean sea level in San Francisco's Ocean Beach; 31 feet in Pacifica in San Mateo County; 27 feet in Bolinas in Marin County; 18 feet in Alameda; 14 feet in Sausalito and San Francisco's Aquatic Park; 13 feet on Alcatraz Island; and 11 feet in Richmond and Treasure Island, according to the California Geological Survey. Damage estimate from distant-source tsunami: More than $6.5 billion. Near-source tsunami: In Northern California, a near-source tsunami could generate a tsunami of 9 feet above sea level in Bolinas; 8 feet in Pacifica; 7 feet in Sausalito; 6 feet at Ocean Beach; 5 feet in Alameda; and 4 feet at Alcatraz Island, Treasure Island, Aquatic Park, Redwood City and Richmond. Cascadia scenario: Given its proximity to the Cascadia subduction zone, Del Norte County — the state's northernmost coastal region — is perhaps more exposed to tsunami risk than any other part of California. If people wait 10 minutes after an earthquake to evacuate — the shaking itself would be the warning to flee — more than 3,150 are at risk of being killed or injured by tsunami in Del Norte County, and more than 720 would be at risk in neighboring Humboldt County. Flooding could reach up to 30 feet above the average high tide along the outer coast of Humboldt Bay and the Eureka area, and up to 50 feet toward Crescent City. 'A large quake generated by the Cascadia subduction zone could create waves twice as large as the 1964 event, especially in Crescent City,' Rick Wilson, a former head of the California Geological Survey tsunami program, said in a statement. Damage estimates: Del Norte County, which is home to Crescent City, could see more than $1 billion in damage. Humboldt County, home to Eureka, could see $22 million.
CNN
31-03-2025
- Climate
- CNN
Powerful storm causes mudslides in California, threatens outbreak of tornadoes and wildfires across US this week
A powerful storm that dropped drenching rain on flood-prone Southern California is raising concern among forecasters that it could produce a dangerous, widespread outbreak of tornadoes, damaging winds and fires along with a blizzard as it crosses the entire United States in the coming days. The heavy rain triggered mudslides that engulfed part of a roadway and trapped multiple vehicles in San Jacinto in California's Riverside County Thursday morning. At least six people were rescued, evaluated by paramedics and released, the county's fire department said on social media. The storm also produced a short-lived EF0 tornado that damaged some homes and cars in Pico Rivera – southeast of Los Angeles – in the early morning, according to the National Weather Service. Parts of Los Angeles, Ventura and Orange counties saw flash flood warnings early Thursday, but Southern California's heaviest rain let up by the afternoon – though the threat of mudslides will persist. Forecasters also issued a rare increase Thursday in the level of severe thunderstorm risk this storm will bring to the central and eastern US Friday and Saturday. Millions there are facing a dangerous severe weather outbreak capable of multiple strong tornadoes, with level 4 of 5 risks of severe thunderstorms in place both days, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Setting the second-highest level of risk this far in advance is rare, and happens only when forecasters have great confidence that the ingredients for severe storms will be present. Over the past 15 years, level 4 risks issued three days in advance have resulted in an average of 90 tornado reports on the day of concern. Similar instances include the 2011 Super Outbreak centered in Alabama that killed more than 300 and was the costliest tornado outbreak on record; another was the Easter Sunday Outbreak in 2020 that produced around 150 tornadoes and killed 35 people. Ahead of the storm's arrival Wednesday, evacuation warnings urging people to prepare to leave at a moment's notice were issued for parts of Los Angeles County, while authorities ordered hundreds of residents in more vulnerable areas to evacuate. The California Governor's Office of Emergency Services said it positioned rescue personnel and equipment in 11 counties where heavy impact from the storm was expected, including Los Angeles County. Emergency management officials in Santa Barbara, just north of Los Angeles, ordered residents in and around the Lake Fire burn scar to shelter in place from Wednesday night through early Thursday, saying 'flash flooding and debris flows may be imminent or occurring.' In the Sierra Nevada, heavy snow brought travel to a standstill along part of Interstate 80 Wednesday night. Multiple crashes occurred in the snow along the eastbound portion of the roadway according to the California Highway Patrol. The storm pushed into the Rockies Thursday with additional rain, snow and winds. Winter weather alerts are in place across the highest parts of Nevada, Arizona and Utah, where snow could pile up to 2 feet. Gusts up to 50 mph across the West could make travel difficult and cause power outages. Gusty winds will also impact the Plains and ramp up a widespread fire threat, especially from the late afternoon onward. More than 800 miles of the central US, from western Texas into South Dakota, are under a level 2 of 3 fire weather risk, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Any spark could turn into a wind-driven blaze in these conditions. The fire risk will climb higher Friday in tandem with extremely strong winds. 'Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions' are expected, and a wildfire outbreak is possible across parts of the Southern Plains, according to the center. Those winds could gust up to 90 mph at times in parts of New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma Friday, and also cause power outages and hazardous travel conditions, according to the Weather Prediction Center. The storm will strengthen Friday in the central US and become unusually strong for March just before it tracks into an area where atmospheric conditions are primed to set off dangerous severe weather. Severe thunderstorms will roar to life by the late afternoon in the Mississippi Valley, become more ferocious and pound potentially more than 900 miles of the region – from Louisiana to Minnesota – through the overnight hours. A level 4 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for parts of the region – including St. Louis – Friday, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds will be widespread, with some storms producing gusts past 75 mph – on par with a Category 1 hurricane – within the level 3 and 4 risk areas. Tornadoes and hail are also possible within any storm. Some of the strongest storms will be active after dark, adding another layer of danger: Nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be deadly as those occurring during the day, a 2022 study found. 'All are encouraged to review their severe weather safety plans before Friday evening,' the National Weather Service in Central Illinois urged Thursday. 'Consider discussing the forecast with family/friends so they are aware in advance.' Saturday poses another serious threat for dangerous thunderstorms and will see an increased threat of tornadoes, with the Storm Prediction Center pinpointing the South as the area of greatest concern for 'significant tornadoes, swaths of damaging (wind) gusts and hail.' A level 4 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place Saturday for parts of Louisiana – including New Orleans – Mississippi, Alabama and the extreme western Florida Panhandle. Severe thunderstorms could be ongoing early Saturday morning after Friday's activity, but the riskiest thunderstorms will intensify or develop by the afternoon in the South. Storms packing damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will once again persist through the evening and overnight. This story has been updated with additional information. CNN's Robert Shackelford, Brandon Miller, Allison Chinchar, Danielle Sills and Kia Fatahi contributed to this report.
Yahoo
27-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Homeowner affected by landslide says buyout program is "not a good deal"
Sheri Hastings' property sits on a slow-moving disaster; a complex of landslides in the Portuguese Bend area of Rancho Palos Verdes, California. For nearly 70 years, this area has shifted roughly a few inches a year, but recently that pace has surged to as fast as four inches a week. The culprit for the spike in movement is heavy rains – and runoff from nearby canyons -- brought on by a series of recent atmospheric rivers that have soaked deep into the soil, destabilizing the area. The landslide complex on the Palos Verdes Peninsula is more than a square mile in size and reaches hundreds of feet deep in some places. It's slipping towards the Pacific Ocean. Mike Phipps, a geologist who has been studying the shifting landscape for nearly four decades, was contracted by the city to monitor the movement. A major part of the city's approach to slow the landslide is around a dozen deep water wells that pull water from the ground and channel it into the ocean. "It's a catastrophe, and yet some people are still able to live in their homes up here. They're kind of riding a big raft down the hill," Phipps said. In October, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and California Governor's Office of Emergency Services announced a $42 million voluntary buyout program for residents most impacted by the slide. The properties approved for buyouts will be acquired by the city and converted to open space. Of the 85 residents who applied, only an estimated 20 homes are expected to be covered by the initial funding round, according to the city. But Hastings isn't interested. "It's not a good deal. You get what the value of your home was two years ago. You get 75% of that. And then on top of that, you have to pay to demolish everything and have it hauled away," Hastings said. The FEMA-funded buyout program only provides 75% of the funding for the city to buy affected properties at fair market value, while the remaining 25% is effectively absorbed by sellers, according to the program's guidelines. Hastings said that insurance doesn't cover any of the damage to her property, either. Her life savings are now slipping away. "Everybody thinks we're all millionaires up here. We're actually not. Our homes were our money, right? We can't just go out and buy another home," Hastings said. Sneak peek: The People v. Kouri Richins Old-Fashioned Beef Stew Musk doubles down on email from federal employees, Trump backs him up
CBS News
27-02-2025
- Business
- CBS News
As California community slowly slides toward ocean, not all homeowners want to leave
Sheri Hastings' property sits on a slow-moving disaster; a complex of landslides in the Portuguese Bend area of Rancho Palos Verdes, California. For nearly 70 years, this area has shifted roughly a few inches a year, but recently that pace has surged to as fast as four inches a week. The culprit for the spike in movement is heavy rains – and runoff from nearby canyons -- brought on by a series of recent atmospheric rivers that have soaked deep into the soil, destabilizing the area. The landslide complex on the Palos Verdes Peninsula is more than a square mile in size and reaches hundreds of feet deep in some places. It's slipping towards the Pacific Ocean. Mike Phipps, a geologist who has been studying the shifting landscape for nearly four decades, was contracted by the city to monitor the movement. A major part of the city's approach to slow the landslide is around a dozen deep water wells that pull water from the ground and channel it into the ocean. "It's a catastrophe, and yet some people are still able to live in their homes up here. They're kind of riding a big raft down the hill," Phipps said. In October, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and California Governor's Office of Emergency Services announced a $42 million voluntary buyout program for residents most impacted by the slide. The properties approved for buyouts will be acquired by the city and converted to open space. Of the 85 residents who applied, only an estimated 20 homes are expected to be covered by the initial funding round, according to the city. But Hastings isn't interested. "It's not a good deal. You get what the value of your home was two years ago. You get 75% of that. And then on top of that, you have to pay to demolish everything and have it hauled away," Hastings said. The FEMA-funded buyout program only provides 75% of the funding for the city to buy affected properties at fair market value, while the remaining 25% is effectively absorbed by sellers, according to the program's guidelines. Hastings said that insurance doesn't cover any of the damage to her property, either. Her life savings are now slipping away. "Everybody thinks we're all millionaires up here. We're actually not. Our homes were our money, right? We can't just go out and buy another home," Hastings said.
