Latest news with #Cavoli
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- General
- Bloomberg
NATO Names Grynkewich Supreme Allied Commander Europe
NATO has named Lieutenant General Alexus G Grynkewich to the post of Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the US military's top job on the European continent. Grynkewich is currently serving as Director for Operations of the Joint Staff. He will succeed General Christopher G. Cavoli after having completed confirmation processes in the US, NATO said in a statement Thursday.
Forbes
01-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
At The Current Rate, It Would Take Russia Centuries To Capture Ukraine
Ukrainian army trainees. Russian forces managed to capture around 68 square miles of Ukraine in April. But it cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 dead and wounded troops, according to one statistician who collects data mostly from official Ukrainian sources including the general staff in Kyiv. In the same month, Ukrainian losses were 'minimal,' concluded analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting in Poland. Ukraine sprawls across 233,000 square miles, 19% of which is under Russian occupation. At the current rates of advance and loss, the Russians would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. The current population of Russia is 144 million. Incredibly, staggering losses in people and equipment haven't yet crippled the Russian military in Ukraine. The Kremlin is equipping its forces with thousands of civilian vehicles, including scooters, compact cars and even at least one bus. Meanwhile, it's recruiting 30,000 troops per month, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told U.S. lawmakers on April 3. Since many of the wounded eventually return to the front line, the Russian armed forces recruit more people every month than they lose. As a result, Cavoli said, the Russian force in Ukraine is actually growing. It now numbers no fewer than 600,000 troops, 'the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force' in February 2022, Cavoli said. How the Kremlin has managed to sustain and even expand its recruitment effort comes down to two things: money and mood. Record enlistments are 'driven by high sign-on bonuses and speculation that the war will soon be over,' explained Janis Kluge, deputy head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Russian recruits. Whether the money and good vibes are sustainable is an open question. 'All told, Russia's defense budget will account for 40% of all government expenditures which is at its highest level since the Cold War,' Cavoli said. By comparison, the United States spends just 13% of its federal budget on the military. The spending has buoyed Russians' attitude toward the war, even as total casualties exceeded 800,000 earlier this year. 'As a direct result of its defense spending, Russian investments in its industrial base have reduced national unemployment to 2.4%,' Cavoli said. 'The Russian economy is on a war footing and will remain so for the foreseeable future.' But a war footing isn't always very efficient. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has vowed to maintain the elevated military spending even as plummeting oil prices and the damage from Ukrainian drone attacks squeeze revenue from energy exports, cutting economic growth in Russia by more than half compared to a year ago. To prolong the wartime spending spree, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin raised personal and corporate taxes last year. 'Russia's leadership is not only prepared to increase the tax burden on Russians but is also shifting its economic development priorities,' explained Alexander Kolyandr, an analyst with the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C. Obviously, war industries are the priority. Losing a lot to gain very little in Ukraine and sustaining the costly effort through massive spending, Russian leaders are walking an economic and political tightrope. But the danger hasn't dissuaded them. According to Cavoli, Putin and his ministers and generals are committed to a long war—one that could widen beyond Ukraine. 'The Russian regime has refashioned its military, economic and social structures to sustain what it describes as a long-term confrontation with the West—systemic changes that illustrate Russia's intention to confront us into the foreseeable future,' Cavoli warned.
Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russia's military building up at Finland's border over potential NATO clash, WSJ reports
Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland in what experts and officials say could be a preparation for a potential clash with NATO, the Wall Street Journal reported on April 28. These efforts include expanding military bases near the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, around 160 kilometers (100 miles) east of Finland, the planned site for a new headquarters that could potentially command tens of thousands of troops, the outlet wrote. Western military and intelligence officials are reportedly warning that these units could form the "backbone" of Russia's forces preparing to confront NATO. Since the start of Russia's all-out war against Ukraine, NATO officials have increasingly warned Moscow could launch aggression against the alliance's members in the coming years. Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia, has accused Moscow of ramping up hybrid operations against the Nordic country since it joined NATO in 2023. Russia's military is currently heavily engaged in Ukraine, suffering massive losses in manpower and equipment. This has forced Moscow to redeploy forces from other areas over the past years, with a media investigation saying last June that most of the Russian ground units previously stationed near Finland were dispatched to Ukraine. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. forces in Europe, nevertheless warned earlier this month that Russia is rebuilding its forces much faster than previously anticipated. "Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated," Cavoli told a U.S. Senate committee. According to the general, the U.S. expects Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which could help it build a stockpile three times larger than the U.S. and Europe combined. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said last December that Russia must be ready for a potential conflict with NATO in the next 10 years. Moscow has also issued a number of veiled and overt threats to the West over its support for Kyiv, including warnings of a possible nuclear response. NATO countries in Russia's vicinity have intensified their preparations for a possible conflict. Poland and the Baltic countries moved to abandon a treaty banning land mines and are strengthening the borders shared with Russia and its ally Belarus while urging higher defense spending across the alliance. Read also: North Korea confirms for first time it has deployed troops to fight alongside Russia in Kursk Oblast We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
21-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
If Ukraine-Russia Negotiations Fail, Victory Remains an Option
ON FRIDAY, SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO announced that 'in a matter of days,' the administration would decide whether negotiating an end to the Russia-Ukraine War is 'doable.' It's unclear what the administration would do if it determined that negotiations had failed—in that case, Rubio said, 'We'll do what we can on the margins.' But Rubio's clear frustration contrasts markedly with the testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this month of Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the soldier most knowledgeable about the current situation in Europe and Ukraine. That testimony mostly went unnoticed by the media. Cavoli's message was clear and precise: Ukraine is fighting with incredible resolve, Russia is not adapting quickly enough even after three years of fighting, and both sides are running dangerously low on the means to continue their fight without outside support. His testimony punctured the false narrative being spread by President Trump and members of his national security team—that Russia is winning, Ukraine is doomed, and future U.S. support would be wasted. That view, repeated by President Trump on multiple occasions, is more than misinformation. It is a view that distorts the battlefield reality and the critical strategic interests of the United States and our allies. Cavoli didn't mince words. His assessment was that 'Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated,' with significant numbers of artillery shells, drones, and long-range fires being produced and sourced from abroad. Their military is battered, but not yet broken—and their will to press troops—including North Korean troops and Chinese 'volunteers'—into a meat grinder remains intact. Get the best coverage of American politics, policy, and culture by becoming a Bulwark+ member. The Supreme Allied Commander didn't say explicitly that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, but he did stress that 'the Ukrainians depend on us . . . uniquely . . . for their high-end anti-aircraft systems.' And reading between the lines, demand for artillery ammunition continues to exceed supply. He praised the Czech Republic for delivering 70,000 rounds to Ukraine this month but also noted that the Russians are expected to produce 250,000 shells per month. (The Russian's shells aren't as accurate, so they take more shells to hit each target; still, no military commander wants to be the one with less ammunition.) He stressed that delays in American aid 'have a rapid and deleterious on [the Ukrainians'] ability to fight.' But despite all that, Cavoli's overall estimate wasn't bleak. He observed that the Russian economy features a dangerous combination of high inflation, high interest rates, and dramatic dependence on war production at the expense of everything else. According to a recent report from the Institute for the Study of War, Russia's financial capacity to incentivize new recruits, pay those currently in the force, and provide bonuses to those wounded or the families of those killed is under incredible strain. This looming collapse of pay and benefits increasingly threatens morale and cohesion, two things that have never been the strengths of the Russian army. (The ISW report also gives a bleaker outlook on Russan industrial production than Cavoli provided.) On the other side, 'the Ukrainians . . . have assumed very strong defensive positions—positions well dug-in. And [they] appear to have solved some of their manpower problems that were so acute last autumn. They've evolved and developed very, very quickly.' On the ground, Russian forces have made marginal advances in recent weeks—particularly in areas along the Donetsk front. But those gains have failed to achieve their aims and come at a high cost: Since the war began, Russia has suffered nearly 800,000 dead or wounded, about four times the size of its initial invasion force, and more than the 600,000 it now has deployed in Ukraine. For that cost, progress has been measured in meters, not miles. The Russian tactics continue to rely heavily on human wave assaults, with poorly trained conscripts often used as cannon fodder. Russia's use of glide bombs, loitering munitions, and massive artillery barrages continue with the standoff tactics designed to inflict maximum damage (especially on civilians) with minimal risk. Civilian infrastructure, energy plants, and hospitals remain deliberate targets. This has never been a war of maneuver for the Russians—it is a war of terror. Since the beginning, Putin's strategic objective has been to gain territory and break Ukraine's will. That has not changed, but it now appears only the will of the United States is being broken. Perhaps Cavoli's most important message was this: There's nothing inevitable in war, and the Ukrainians are in very strong defensive positions right now, and are improving weekly, their ability to generate force and to reinforce those positions. It is hard sitting here right now to envision a major Ukrainian offensive that clears everybody you know out of every square inch of Ukraine. But likewise, it's very hard to envision Ukraine collapsing and losing that conflict. I do not think there is inevitability to a Ukrainian loss. That's the essence of this moment: Russia is still dysfunctional and increasingly broken and Ukraine are still fighting for their people, their territorial integrity, their sovereignty. But they can only continue with that fight if the United States shows the strategic patience and political will to provide what's needed. During the campaign, Trump claimed that he could 'end the war in 24 hours.' It was obvious then and it's even more obvious now that there's only one way to guarantee a war ends in 24 hours: surrender. Trump signaled a willingness to hand Ukraine over to Moscow in exchange for quiet on the European front—a trade he realistically can't make, because the Europeans and especially the Ukrainians have a say. Share Even more troubling is the recent suggestion by Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the administration's Envoy to Ukraine, who floated the idea of dividing Ukraine into 'zones of responsibility.' This is not just naïve—it is offensive to the Ukrainian people, who have fought and died for every inch of their territory. It ignores Ukraine's sovereign right to define its borders and future. And it reinforces a 'frozen conflict' model that Putin has used for the last twenty years and benefits only Moscow. A frozen conflict—where the front line becomes an accepted de facto border—hands Putin a victory without a formal treaty, giving him time to rearm, regroup, and resume his assault at a time when he is ready. We've seen this before in Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, the Donbas, and Crimea. Partition isn't peace. It's a time bomb. Gen. Cavoli stated it plainly: 'Russia's war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year has revealed Russia to be a chronic threat . . . it will be a growing threat, one that is willing to use military force to achieve its geopolitical goals.' And the man responsible—Vladimir Putin—must remain an international outcast. The ICC's arrest warrant for the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children is just one of many war crimes under review, and the attacks on civilians over the last few weeks—as Russia claimed to be negotiating a ceasefire—provides overwhelming evidence of Russian intent: to continue targeting civilians, maintain filtration camps, and increase systemic torture. President Trump's rhetoric, Steve Witkoff's sycophancy toward Putin, and Gen. Kellogg's proposed partition scheme play right into that plan. The window for Ukraine to regain momentum is narrowing—but not closed. Maintenance of sanctions, critical deliveries of air defense systems, artillery, and precision munitions, and reaffirmation of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty could begin restoring battlefield balance within weeks. With better protection from Russian airstrikes and renewed long-range fires, and proper treatment of Putin's aggression, Ukraine could stabilize its lines and set conditions for limited offensive actions by late summer or early fall. Ukraine can persevere. With steady Western support, they can hold the line—and push it forward. They don't need our soldiers. They need our resolve. We are at the inflection point. History will remember what we chose to do next. Share
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Top general recommends US maintain current troop levels in Europe
Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of U.S. European Command and the NATO commander, told House lawmakers Tuesday he recommended the military maintain its current force levels in Europe. Cavoli's comments come amid concerns from Congress that the Pentagon is considering reducing the number of U.S. troops on the continent. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said last week that 'mid-level' Pentagon leaders were working on what he described as a misguided plan to 'reduce drastically our military footprint in Europe.' The Defense Department, however, has not made public any proposal to cut force levels there. At a House Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday, panel chairman Rep. Michael Rogers, R-Mich., asked Cavoli for his recommendation. The number of U.S. troops in Europe increased by about 20,000 under former President Joe Biden in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. There have been roughly 100,000 troops there since then. 'It's my advice to maintain that force posture as it is now,' Cavoli said. 'Since we originally surged forces forward in 2022, we have periodically reviewed for structure both the military and policy level, and I have consistently recommended throughout that period to maintain the forces we surged forward, and I would continue to do so now if asked.' The same day Cavoli suggested keeping forces in Europe, his command announced it was shuffling U.S. forces within Poland, away from a Ukraine support hub. Military equipment and personnel were moving out of Jasionka, Poland, to other sites in the country, said U.S. Army Europe and Africa, which noted that the decision came after months of planning with NATO allies. Military aid will continue to flow to Ukraine via Jasionka under the supervision of Polish and NATO leaders, with a smaller U.S. military force at the site, the Army said. 'After three years at Jasionka this is an opportunity to right-size our footprint and save American taxpayers tens of millions of dollars per year,' Gen. Christopher Donahue, commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, said in a statement. The Associated Press contributed to this story.
