Latest news with #CentreForPolicyStudies
Telegraph
27-05-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Labour is normalising our new age of mass migration
The Government is bound to be pleased with the new net migration statistics from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Numbers have fallen by around 40 per cent, to 431,000 last year. After the media firestorm over his 'island of strangers' speech, Keir Starmer might well feel that he's fulfilled his promise to 'finally take back control' of the borders. That would be premature, however. Net migration at that level is still a six-figure increase on the levels before the 2016 Brexit referendum, which was viewed as intolerable then. At this rate, Britain is still receiving the equivalent of the population of Bristol every year and would have added an extra 2 million people by 2029. The gross, as opposed to net, figure shows that nearly 1 million immigrants have arrived in the last recorded year. If the Prime Minister really thinks that mass immigration caused 'incalculable' damage to Britain, then he must think that it is still unacceptably high. The population of foreign-born people in Britain is at a record high of 11.4 million, with Karl Williams of the Centre For Policy Studies pointing out that a staggering 1 in 25 of people in Britain arrived here in the last four years. The number of immigrants granted indefinite leave to remain has increased, meaning that the share of the population with foreign origins will grow. That is a historically unprecedented demographic shift, which is already reshaping the country culturally. With immigration flows that high, integration will also prove difficult, if not impossible. In addition, with the number of new houses built only enough for around half of the new arrivals, the cost of housing will continue to increase. In truth, this reduction is largely a result of restrictions brought in by Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick in the dying days of the last Conservative government. Although there have been more restrictions floated by the current Labour Government in their Immigration White Paper, these have yet to be enacted, and probably won't be for months to come. Plans for a Youth Mobility Visa with the EU, especially if it allows dependents, could easily see numbers begin to creep back up. The Prime Minister therefore needs to bring in greater restrictions soon. He can take heart that these dramatic reductions were the result of sensible restrictions on some dependents and an increase in the skilled visa salary requirement. With the new ONS figures showing that 81,000 came here on work visas but were outnumbered by their 132,000 dependents, as well as large numbers coming on family visas or student visas, further restrictions could lower numbers without affecting how many workers despite the predictions of critics, the large drop in net migration hasn't produced the economic problems they foretold. Greater restrictions will also be necessary because the net migration figures for prior years are often subsequently revised upwards. In 2023 net migration turned out to be 22 per cent higher and in 2022 it was 44 per cent higher than initially calculated. If that proves to be the case again, then the Prime Minister's promise to reduce immigration 'significantly' will end up looking very hollow.
The Independent
16-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Fact check: Report estimated 686,000 migrants would settle over 3.5 years
The Conservative Party claimed on social media that two million immigrants could become British citizens in 2026. On several social media channels, the party wrote: '2 Million Immigrants. That's how many people could get British Citizenship next year.' Evaluation This figure appears to come from a report which measured the number of people who could get Indefinite Leave to Remain – not citizenship – spread over a 3.5-year period between January 2026 and June 2029 – not just next year. The figure was calculated by counting all those who arrived in the UK between January 2021 and June 2024 on a long-term visa which makes them eligible for Indefinite Leave to Remain. To this was added those who arrived in that period on an ineligible visa, but later switched to an eligible visa. That produced a figure of two million. But that is before taking into account people who leave the country, or who stay but never apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. After taking into account such possibilities, the report's authors estimated that around 686,000 of those two million would receive Indefinite Leave to Remain over the 3.5-year period. The facts In a press release shared with the media on May 15 – the same day that the claims were posted on social media – the Conservative Party pointed towards an analysis from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) think tank. That report deals not with citizenship, but with Indefinite Leave to Remain. ILR – also called settlement – gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as they like. Most people are eligible for ILR if they have lived and worked in the UK for five years, depending on their visa type. Although many people are eligible after being in the UK for five years 'some wait considerably longer before applying,' the CPS report said. Once someone has ILR they get the right to apply for British citizenship after a further 12 months. What time period did the CPS report deal with? The CPS report did not say that two million people could get ILR in 2026. Instead it looked at the number of long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024 – a total of around 3.8 million. Those of the 3.8 million who arrived in 2021, have stayed since then and have the right visas, will become eligible for ILR in 2026. Those who arrived in 2022 will be eligible in 2027 and so on. Where does the two million figure come from? The CPS estimated that around two million people from the 2021-2024 cohort could be eligible for ILR over the 3.5 years between January 2026 and July 2029. Assuming they are still in the country. The think tank got to this figure by excluding visas that would not make people eligible for ILR after five years. That left 1.7 million out of 3.8 million total long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024. To this number it added those who had switched from a ineligible to an eligible visa after some time in the UK – for instance changing from a student to a work visa. By adding in these people who have switched visa the CPS estimated that a further 289,000 students who arrived in the UK between January 2021 and June 2024 could become eligible for ILR between January 2026 and June 2029. That takes the total to around two million. By CPS estimates, a little under 400,000 of those could become eligible in 2026. What proportion of the two million are likely to get ILR, according to the report? Not all the two million are likely to have stayed in the country for the full five years, and some of those who do stay for the full period will still not apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. The CPS report estimated that out of the cohort of two million, around 686,000 people will obtain ILR between January 2026 and June 2029 and a further 115,000 by 2040. That is a total of 801,000 of those who came between January 2021 and June 2024. The CPS warned that some of its estimations were based on what proportion of people on certain visas had in the past eventually gained ILR. These proportions might be different in the cohort that arrived between January 2021 and June 2024. The CPS report's 'new paradigm' scenario where it assumes that the 2021-2024 cohort is much more likely to gain ILR sees around 1.2 million of them being granted Indefinite Leave to Remain. The video In a video accompanying the posts by the Conservatives on social media, the party's leader Kemi Badenoch says that the two million could claim citizenship 'from next year' – not in 2026 as the text in the posts claimed. Although it avoids the text's mistake, this still does not take into account that it will take these people a year from getting ILR before they are eligible for citizenship. That means that they will not be able to apply for citizenship until at least 2027. Links
