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Asia News Network
a day ago
- Business
- Asia News Network
Young Philippine workforce seen ‘ageing faster' than expected
August 20, 2025 MANILA – The Philippines will remain a relatively young nation over the next three decades, but its population is set to age faster than expected as declining fertility—influenced by rising living costs and more women entering the workforce—weighs on family formation. This points to 'emerging chinks' in the country's population armor, UK-based Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note to clients, adding that the gains from the so-called demographic dividend 'won't be as big as previously thought.' Pantheon, citing United Nations projections, said the Philippines' working-age population was now expected to peak in 2053—24 years earlier than a prior estimate of 2077. The shift comes as the fertility rate slips below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, dropping to 1.9 in 2022 from 2.7 in 2017, a decline that may have been accelerated by the pandemic. Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon, said the drop reflects both 'positive long-term changes' and 'negative economic reasons.' Labor-force participation The former includes higher female labor-force participation and wider access to contraception and family planning, albeit from a low base. The latter, he said, stem from rising living costs since 2022 and the pandemic's heavy hit to household balance sheets, which many families are still struggling to recover from. 'What I found the most interesting about the Philippines' recent demographic trends is the rapid drop in fertility rates over the past ten years or so, aligning the country more with the rates of its peers,' Chanco said in an interview. 'For a start, a few members of the Asean four—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam—are greying more rapidly than previously expected,' he added. A declining fertility rate could complicate the Marcos administration's Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028, which counts on the country's legion of young workers to help boost growth prospects for the next several decades. Overpopulation Despite the trend, Chanco said the Philippines isn't at risk of aging too quickly. A bigger challenge, he noted, is still overpopulation, which is straining public resources and fueling fierce competition for scarce quality jobs. That, in turn, is driving an acute 'brain drain' of skilled Filipino workers that could undermine human capital, innovation and long-term growth. 'There's a reason why the country remains a huge exporter of manpower, for instance,' Chanco said. 'There simply isn't enough quality jobs domestically, so brain drain remains a big issue.'
Reuters
14-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Thailand economy likely grew at its fastest pace in over two years in Q4: Reuters poll
Summary Thai Q4 GDP seen growing 3.9% y/y vs 3.0% in Q3 Q4 GDP seen at 0.7% q/q sa vs 1.2% in Q3 Q4 GDP data due on Monday, Feb 17 BENGALURU, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy likely grew at its fastest pace in over two years last quarter, driven by a surge in foreign tourists and strong exports that helped offset sluggish domestic demand, a Reuters poll of economists found. While household consumption is expected to remain under pressure despite the government's cash handout to stimulate demand, exports and a steady flow of tourists during the holiday season probably helped growth. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to expand 3.9% in the October-December period, compared with the same period the previous year, according to the median prediction in a February 6-12 Reuters poll of 15 economists, up from 3.0% in the previous quarter. Forecasts for the data, due on February 17, ranged between 3.1% to 4.6%. "The good news is the recovery we saw in Thai exports last year continued (into) Q4, both on the goods and services side. Services mostly reflect the recovery in the tourism sector," said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Q4, in a one-liner, would be stalling domestic demand, which is going to be offset to some extent by the continued strength in exports," Chanco added. But on a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7%, down from 1.2% the previous quarter, according to a smaller sample of forecasts. Several economists in the poll said the service sector continued to accelerate, driven by a revival in tourism, while manufacturing continued to struggle. Eugene Tan, an associate economist at Moody's, attributed the slowdown in manufacturing to declining demand in the auto industry. "On the expenditure front, private consumption, the heavyweight of GDP, has faltered, signaling broader economic weakness," Tan said. While the government expects Thailand's economy to grow 3.0% in 2024, up from 1.9% in 2023, central bank Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput cautioned that weak consumption could hold back growth. In an interview with Reuters, he suggested actual growth might be closer to 2.7%, aligning with the Reuters poll median. An economic slowdown in China - Thailand's largest trading partner and a key source of tourism revenue - along with weak global demand and the escalating U.S.-China trade war could further pressure the country's trade prospects and weigh on its growth outlook this year. A separate Reuters poll projected Thailand's economic growth to average 2.9% in 2025. Deputy finance minister, Julapun Amornvivat, estimated the economy to grow 3.5%.
