Thailand economy likely grew at its fastest pace in over two years in Q4: Reuters poll
Thai Q4 GDP seen growing 3.9% y/y vs 3.0% in Q3
Q4 GDP seen at 0.7% q/q sa vs 1.2% in Q3
Q4 GDP data due on Monday, Feb 17
BENGALURU, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy likely grew at its fastest pace in over two years last quarter, driven by a surge in foreign tourists and strong exports that helped offset sluggish domestic demand, a Reuters poll of economists found.
While household consumption is expected to remain under pressure despite the government's cash handout to stimulate demand, exports and a steady flow of tourists during the holiday season probably helped growth.
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to expand 3.9% in the October-December period, compared with the same period the previous year, according to the median prediction in a February 6-12 Reuters poll of 15 economists, up from 3.0% in the previous quarter.
Forecasts for the data, due on February 17, ranged between 3.1% to 4.6%.
"The good news is the recovery we saw in Thai exports last year continued (into) Q4, both on the goods and services side. Services mostly reflect the recovery in the tourism sector," said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
"Q4, in a one-liner, would be stalling domestic demand, which is going to be offset to some extent by the continued strength in exports," Chanco added.
But on a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7%, down from 1.2% the previous quarter, according to a smaller sample of forecasts.
Several economists in the poll said the service sector continued to accelerate, driven by a revival in tourism, while manufacturing continued to struggle.
Eugene Tan, an associate economist at Moody's, attributed the slowdown in manufacturing to declining demand in the auto industry.
"On the expenditure front, private consumption, the heavyweight of GDP, has faltered, signaling broader economic weakness," Tan said.
While the government expects Thailand's economy to grow 3.0% in 2024, up from 1.9% in 2023, central bank Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput cautioned that weak consumption could hold back growth.
In an interview with Reuters, he suggested actual growth might be closer to 2.7%, aligning with the Reuters poll median.
An economic slowdown in China - Thailand's largest trading partner and a key source of tourism revenue - along with weak global demand and the escalating U.S.-China trade war could further pressure the country's trade prospects and weigh on its growth outlook this year.
A separate Reuters poll projected Thailand's economic growth to average 2.9% in 2025. Deputy finance minister, Julapun Amornvivat, estimated the economy to grow 3.5%.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
29 minutes ago
- Reuters
Global equities retreat, as oil and dollar advance
NEW YORK/PARIS, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Global equities were lower and gold prices eased on Thursday, as traders avoided making big moves and waited for the Federal Reserve's three-day annual Jackson Hole symposium. The symposium starts on Thursday and the focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday as traders look for hints about the likelihood of a September U.S. rate cut. U.S. Treasury yields inched higher as the meeting kicked off. Oil futures advanced, bolstered by signs of strong U.S. demand and uncertainty over efforts to end the war in Ukraine. The U.S. dollar also gained, adding 0.35% against a basket of other currencies . Stocks stayed near recent highs during Asian trading, and Australia's benchmark (.AXJO), opens new tab hit a new record. But European and U.S. markets were under pressure, and the MSCI World Equity Index retreated 0.21% (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab. 'People are sitting on their hands. You have a couple of big known unknowns coming, with Jackson Hole tomorrow and the Fed in September," said Tim Graf, head of macro strategy for EMEA at State Street Markets. 'This is the time to send the message, if you're going to ease, that it's coming," he said. "But I can also see them saying, we don't know the full effect of tariffs and inflation pressure is still not quite out of the economy, and being a bit more balanced." On Wall Street, the S&P 500 was down 0.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.24% (.DJI), opens new tab and the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.07% (.IXIC), opens new tab. Traders had ramped up bets for a September cut following a surprisingly weak payrolls report at the start of this month, and were further encouraged after consumer price data showed limited upward pressure from tariffs. But they lowered their expectations slightly following the release of minutes from the Fed's July meeting. By Thursday, markets were pricing in a 79.6% chance of a September rate cut, compared to 83% on Wednesday, according to LSEG data . The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX), opens new tab lost 0.04%. Analysts attributed a pullback in tech stocks this week to concerns that AI investments were not delivering returns. Euro zone business activity accelerated in August, PMI data showed, with Germany registering its fastest growth since March and France's downturn easing. Euro zone bond yields were mostly higher, with the benchmark 10-year German Bund up 2.5 basis points at 2.751% . The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 3.7 basis points to 4.334% . The euro was down 0.32% at $1.1614. U.S. President Donald Trump intensified his effort to influence the Fed on Wednesday, calling on Governor Lisa Cook to resign on the basis of allegations made by one of his political allies about mortgages she holds in Michigan and Georgia. Cook said she had "no intention of being bullied to step down" from her position at the central bank. Deutsche Bank analysts in a research note attributed a rise in gold overnight to renewed concerns about the Fed's independence. "The news was a reminder of the lingering concerns over future Fed independence and risks of fiscal dominance, though the extent of the market reaction was fairly modest," Deutsche Bank said. State Street Markets' Tim Graf said that although central bank independence was considered "sacrosanct" by markets, it was not yet problematic. 'Markets quite rightly look through this, price maybe a little bit of risk premium for sure, but it's not something that I think really upsets the apple cart too much," he said. Spot gold prices edged lower, down 0.09% at $3,343.69 per ounce, while gold futures added 0.01%. Elsewhere in commodities, Brent oil futures rose 0.49% to $67.17 per barrel and U.S. crude gained 0.48% to $63.01.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Boeing in talks to sell up to 500 jets to China, Bloomberg News reports
Aug 21 (Reuters) - Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab is in talks to sell as many as 500 jets to China, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Shares of the U.S. planemaker rose 2% before the market open as the potential order would be China's first major purchase of Boeing jets since U.S. President Donald Trump's visit in his previous term. The two sides are negotiating the details such as jet models, types and delivery schedules, the report said, adding that the order could be the centerpiece of a trade deal between the world's two largest economies. Boeing declined a comment to Reuters on the matter. Such a big deal would be a breakthrough for Boeing in the world's second largest aviation market, where orders have stalled amid U.S.-China trade tensions. It would also help Boeing narrow the gap with rival Airbus ( opens new tab, which has pulled far ahead in China in recent years. Chinese officials have begun consulting their domestic airlines on their requirements for Boeing jets, the report said. Jet purchases have increasingly featured in Trump's diplomatic visits this year. During his trip to the Middle East earlier this year, Boeing secured some of its biggest-ever orders, with Qatar Airways agreeing to buy 160 widebody jets, plus options for 50 more, along with GE Aerospace (GE.N), opens new tab engines, in a package valued at about $96 billion. In Saudi Arabia, state-owned lessor AviLease placed an order for 20 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, with options for 10 more.
Auto Blog
an hour ago
- Auto Blog
New US Tariffs Could Push EV Prices Even Higher
On Tuesday, the US Commerce Department said it would hike steel and aluminum tariffs on more than 400 items, including motorcycles, wind turbines, appliances, and more. The steel tariffs will also affect EV motors. New Tariffs Will Raise Prices Other affected products include marine engines, furniture, and more. The Commerce Department said that 407 product categories will be added to the list of 'derivative' steel and aluminum products covered by tariffs, per Reuters. There will be a 50% tariff on the steel and aluminum content of any of these products. These will be levied in addition to any existing country rate on the rest of the product; that is, anything not steel and aluminum inside an electric motor, for example. More Tariffs Mean Higher Prices Source: Getty Images Consumers will face higher costs as a result of the new tariffs, even if it does take a while for buyers to feel their impact. Price increases may not take effect for some time as various manufacturers of goods work through existing supply before obtaining newly tariffed items like the electric motors subject to the new 50% tariff. Prices have already risen as a result of tariffs, too. Canada saw the Hyundai Santa Cruz blocked amid a trade dispute, and Ford recently announced it incurred $800 million in tariff-related expenses last quarter alone. View post: Hyundai Santa Cruz Blocked From Canada Over Trade Dispute News Hyundai Santa Cruz Blocked From Canada Over Trade Dispute A tariff fight has left Hyundai's Santa Cruz stranded, leaving dealers empty-handed and customers waiting for trucks parked just a few hours away. Marnus Moolman Car Exhausts Will Also Be Tariffed Source: Gunther Werks The department will also add imported parts for car exhausts in addition to the electrical steel needed for EV motors. These include components for buses, as well as air conditioners. Automakers, predictably, urged the US to forgo further automotive tariffs. Tesla asked the Commerce Dept. to remove steel products used in EV motors (and wind turbines) from the list. Foreign automakers also asked the Commerce Dept. to forgo new tariffs. 'Today's action expands the reach of the steel and aluminum tariffs and shuts down avenues for circumvention – supporting the continued revitalization of the American steel and aluminum industries,' said Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security Jeffrey Kessler. Tesla says that there is no available US-based alternative to the steel it uses for its motors. About the Author Chase Bierenkoven View Profile
