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Business Mayor
21-05-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: A fragile truce as tempers flare
Containers pile up at Taicang Port Container Terminal in Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China, on May 18, 2025. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images This report is from this week's CNBC's The China Connection newsletter, which brings you insights and analysis on what's driving the world's second-largest economy. Each week, we'll explore the biggest business stories in China, give a lowdown on market moves and help you set up for the week ahead. Like what you see? You can subscribe here. The big story Just a week after a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade tensions, neither side can yet be confident that the other is holding up their end of the bargain. 'These 90 days won't be smooth,' Liu Weidong, research fellow at a state-affiliated think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of American Studies, told me this week. That's according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks. He predicts elevated uncertainty and smaller steps next, given the already-large breakthrough, as the U.S. and China each try to feel the other out towards a middle ground. The posturing has already begun. China's Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday warned that it would take legal action against those involved in assisting or implementing measures to curb the usage of advanced semiconductors from China. It follows an earlier accusation by the same ministry on Monday that blamed the U.S. for undermining trade talks with a Huawei chip warning last week — although the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security had actually toned down its language and dismissed a more restrictive Biden-era plan on chips. Many in the U.S. are also concerned that China isn't relaxing rare earth export controls, another area in which China dominates the supply chain. That's despite the joint statement's vague description of how China would 'suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.' Read More Aid Is Rushing Into Gaza While the Cease-Fire Holds 'I do think Washington was expecting the export controls on that group of rare earths to be lowered, permitting exports in a relatively unrestricted way,' said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. 'If it turns out that, in fact, that is not the result, the U.S. will probably conclude that China is in violation of the agreement,' he said. 'We could see a re-escalation sooner rather than later.' While the White House has yet to respond to a CNBC request for comment, a step back reveals ambiguity on China's side. But are the rare earth export controls part of China's countermeasures to U.S. tariffs? That's up for debate. An April 4 document from China's commerce ministry and customs agency announcing the export controls did not explicitly label them as such. While China did pause restrictions on 28 U.S. entities that were slapped with export controls on critical minerals, the ministry has made several public statements about strengthening export controls on critical minerals. 'Given the comprehensive and competitive nature of bilateral relations, the current truce — while focused on trade—can easily be undermined by export controls,' said Yue Su principal economist, China, at The Economist Intelligence Unit. 'While rhetorical posturing is unlikely to undermine the 90-day truce, China may well recalibrate its export control regime in a measured response to U.S. actions,' she said. The Chinese commerce ministry on Sunday also announced duties of up to 74.9% on imports of an engineering plastic from the U.S., Europe, Japan and Taiwan. Trump-Xi talk? U.S. President Donald Trump last week told Fox News he is open to a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, or even a trip to China. But Beijing hasn't dropped any hints. 'I'd be surprised if the two step into the middle of these issues right now with so much unclear,' Kennedy said. The new U.S. Ambassador to China, David Perdue, arrived in Beijing on Thursday, slightly more than two weeks after being confirmed by the Senate. He was previously the head of Asia for U.S. packaged consumer goods company Sara Lee. One of Perdue's first social media posts called for 'strong actions' on fentanyl. He said on X that, together with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, they were 'meaningfully engaged with the Chinese on next steps to stop this dangerous situation.' The U.S. has left in place 20% in tariffs imposed earlier this year over China's alleged role in the fentanyl crisis. The joint statement last week said the U.S. and China would establish a mechanism for talks about economic and trade relations, but neither side has specified when the next one would occur. Liu, who helped author a report in February with The Carter Center about bilateral cooperation, emphasized the overall focus of the current talks is trade rather than tech. He expects that China could eventually agree to buy more U.S. agriculture and energy products — given the perception that pressuring farmers can influence Trump. Top TV picks on CNBC Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon on tariffs and China Cristiano Amon, CEO of Qualcomm, discusses tariffs and the China market for his business. Toyota North America COO on new fleet of cars and tariffs on auto imports Mark Templin, Toyota North America COO, joins CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss the company's launch of their new products, the company's pricing, and much more. Walter Isaacson on biotech breakthroughs vs. federal funding cuts, Trump-U.S. business relationship Walter Isaacson, 'Elon Musk' author, Perella Weinberg Partners advisory partner and Tulane professor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss breakthroughs in gene editing and biotech to cure diseases, impact of federal funding cuts, the White House relationship with the business world, and more. Need to know In the markets Stock chart icon The performance of the Shanghai Composite over the past year. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks climbed Wednesday. Mainland China's CSI 300 was up 0.68% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index — which includes major Chinese companies — rose 0.53% as of 12 p.m. local time. The benchmark 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.669%. Coming up May 22: Xiaomi to release mobile phone chip, its first SUV and other products May 27: China to report industrial profits for April
CNBC
21-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: A fragile truce as tempers flare
Just a week after a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade tensions, neither side can yet be confident that the other is holding up their end of the bargain. "These 90 days won't be smooth," Liu Weidong, research fellow at a state-affiliated think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of American Studies, told me this week. That's according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks. He predicts elevated uncertainty and smaller steps next, given the already-large breakthrough, as the U.S. and China each try to feel the other out towards a middle ground. The posturing has already begun. China's Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday warned that it would take legal action against those involved in assisting or implementing measures to curb the usage of advanced semiconductors from China. It follows an earlier accusation by the same ministry on Monday that blamed the U.S. for undermining trade talks with a Huawei chip warning last week — although the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security had actually toned down its language and dismissed a more restrictive Biden-era plan on chips. Many in the U.S. are also concerned that China isn't relaxing rare earth export controls, another area in which China dominates the supply chain. That's despite the joint statement's vague description of how China would "suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025." "I do think Washington was expecting the export controls on that group of rare earths to be lowered, permitting exports in a relatively unrestricted way," said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. "If it turns out that, in fact, that is not the result, the U.S. will probably conclude that China is in violation of the agreement," he said. "We could see a re-escalation sooner rather than later." While the White House has yet to respond to a CNBC request for comment, a step back reveals ambiguity on China's side. But are the rare earth export controls part of China's countermeasures to U.S. tariffs? That's up for debate. An April 4 document from China's commerce ministry and customs agency announcing the export controls did not explicitly label them as such. While China did pause restrictions on 28 U.S. entities that were slapped with export controls on critical minerals, the ministry has made several public statements about strengthening export controls on critical minerals. "Given the comprehensive and competitive nature of bilateral relations, the current truce — while focused on trade—can easily be undermined by export controls," said Yue Su principal economist, China, at The Economist Intelligence Unit. "While rhetorical posturing is unlikely to undermine the 90-day truce, China may well recalibrate its export control regime in a measured response to U.S. actions," she said. The Chinese commerce ministry on Sunday also announced duties of up to 74.9% on imports of an engineering plastic from the U.S., Europe, Japan and Taiwan. U.S. President Donald Trump last week told Fox News he is open to a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, or even a trip to China. But Beijing hasn't dropped any hints. "I'd be surprised if the two step into the middle of these issues right now with so much unclear," Kennedy said. The new U.S. Ambassador to China, David Perdue, arrived in Beijing on Thursday, slightly more than two weeks after being confirmed by the Senate. He was previously the head of Asia for U.S. packaged consumer goods company Sara Lee. One of Perdue's first social media posts called for "strong actions" on fentanyl. He said on X that, together with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, they were "meaningfully engaged with the Chinese on next steps to stop this dangerous situation." The U.S. has left in place 20% in tariffs imposed earlier this year over China's alleged role in the fentanyl crisis. The joint statement last week said the U.S. and China would establish a mechanism for talks about economic and trade relations, but neither side has specified when the next one would occur. Liu, who helped author a report in February with The Carter Center about bilateral cooperation, emphasized the overall focus of the current talks is trade rather than tech. He expects that China could eventually agree to buy more U.S. agriculture and energy products — given the perception that pressuring farmers can influence Trump. Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon on tariffs and China Cristiano Amon, CEO of Qualcomm, discusses tariffs and the China market for his business. Toyota North America COO on new fleet of cars and tariffs on auto imports Mark Templin, Toyota North America COO, joins CNBC's "Closing Bell" to discuss the company's launch of their new products, the company's pricing, and much more. Walter Isaacson on biotech breakthroughs vs. federal funding cuts, Trump-U.S. business relationship Walter Isaacson, 'Elon Musk' author, Perella Weinberg Partners advisory partner and Tulane professor, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss breakthroughs in gene editing and biotech to cure diseases, impact of federal funding cuts, the White House relationship with the business world, and more. Chinese exporters are doubling down on non-U.S. markets. That's based on a poll by Allianz Trade. But a Shanghai-based baby products company on Tuesday announced a major ramp-up of its U.S. market expansion. Meanwhile, analysts and industry players point out how some Chinese exporters have found illicit ways around U.S. tariffs. Retail sales and industrial production growth slowed in April. The sluggish real estate sector showed little sign of improvement. However, major Chinese online shopping companies reported better sales in the first quarter, helped by artificial intelligence-powered ads. Electric car company Leapmotor said its gross margin for the first quarter was a record 14.9%, while Chinese battery giant CATL raised $4.6 billion in its Hong Kong listing on Tuesday. China is gearing up for its next five-year plan. The next set of development goals will kick in next year. The science ministry, central bank and several other ministries have also announced measures to support "high-level scientific and technological self-reliance." A new policy for preventing government spending waste calls for favoring domestic vehicles, especially new energy makes. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks climbed Wednesday. Mainland China's CSI 300 was up 0.68% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index — which includes major Chinese companies — rose 0.53% as of 12 p.m. local time. The benchmark 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.669%. May 22: Xiaomi to release mobile phone chip, its first SUV and other products May 27: China to report industrial profits for April
South China Morning Post
26-03-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Chinese economist calls US trade war ‘negative-sum' game at Boao Forum
A trade war is neither a win-win scenario nor a simple shift in gains, a Chinese economist said, calling such a conflict an exercise in a 'negative-sum logic' that contends for superiority at any cost - even the aggressor's own well-being. Advertisement 'Beyond the economic rationale of pursuing benefits, there's a political logic to trade – one that seeks to secure a country or economy's dominant position,' said Zhang Yuyan, dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' School of International Politics and Economics, at the Boao Forum for Asia on Tuesday. 'One way this logic plays out is by suppressing competitors – even if I incur losses myself, as long as my rival suffers greater losses, I can still maintain my advantage. This is a lose-lose situation.' The sentiments in Zhang's opening address were echoed by other Chinese economists, who shared concerns over the state of global trade as US barriers continue to rise 'I am quite pessimistic about the future of free trade because some major powers have abandoned multilateralism, with the World Trade Organization largely sidelined,' said Long Yongtu, China's chief negotiator during its accession to the UN body. Advertisement The Boao Forum for Asia - an annual gathering of high-level officials, academics and business executives - is being held in the southern island province of Hainan from Tuesday to Friday.
Yahoo
15-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China on track to achieve growth target for 2025, say experts and business leaders
BEIJING, March 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A news report from China is expected to achieve its annual growth target of around 5 percent this year and present more business opportunities for both domestic and foreign companies, with its intensified efforts to spur innovation and further boost consumption and investment, economists and business leaders said at the "CEO: Grow with China" Roundtable hosted by China Daily on Friday. "China's economy is right on track to meet its preset annual growth target of around 5 percent for 2025, supported by its ultra-large domestic market, strong innovation capability, as well as a string of supportive policies aimed at boosting consumption and emerging industry investment," said Lin Shen, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of World Economics and Politics. Government policies aimed at fostering innovation and developing emerging industries have been steadily implemented. Fiscal policies and other innovation-friendly measures will play a crucial role in sustaining economic growth throughout the year, Lin said. Lin highlighted the structural shifts in the economy, where new growth drivers are replacing old ones, and stressed that new quality productive forces, including AI-powered manufacturing, have begun to take hold. "Our new quality productive forces, coupled with AI empowerment, have integrated well with the manufacturing and the real economy. There will be significant progress in application scenarios." "Even though there are certain geopolitical headwinds, we are still very optimistic about China's economic prospects this year as the country's fiscal and monetary policies go hand in hand," said Ole Gerdau, chief operating officer at Deutsche Bank China. According to him, consumption will be the key driver of the economy, roughly contributing to two-thirds of China's growth this year. The trade-in program, for which funding has been doubled, is expected to have a positive impact on consumption. Gerdau said the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is changing people's perception about China's innovation strength and technological advancements. "This creates a wake-up moment for the world that now might be the time to invest in China. We expect this year to be the turning point where international investors are going to shift their focuses and have a higher allocation into the Chinese market," he said. China is prioritizing new quality productive forces and enhancing financial services to enterprises in its economic agenda for the year, as policymakers announced recently the rollout of a raft of supportive measures aimed at creating new growth drivers for the world's second-largest economy. The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said late on Thursday that it will reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates as appropriate based on the domestic and international economic and financial situation as well as the performance of financial markets. The A-share benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.81 percent to close at 3419.56 points on Friday, while the ChiNext Index, tracking China's Nasdaq-style board of growth enterprises, jumped 2.8 percent to close at 2226.72 points. The National Development and Reform Commission recently announced that it would establish a national venture capital guidance fund, with the goal of enhancing, strengthening and expanding innovative enterprises. The fund is expected to attract nearly 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) in capital from local governments and the private sector. The participants at the roundtable emphasized that emerging sectors like artificial intelligence have great potential in China, presenting new opportunities for enterprises. China's AI-led innovation is also throwing up opportunities for businesses like Rolls-Royce, said Troy Wang, executive vice-president of Rolls-Royce Greater China. "China's focus on innovation-driven growth is making it continue to be an important country for Rolls-Royce, and it's so much more than just a market for us," Wang said. "Rolls-Royce just achieved a record year in 2024 in terms of business performance and we're confident about 2025," he said, adding that the company is building Beijing Aero Engine Services Co Ltd, a joint venture in Beijing, into a world-leading digitally enabled aeronautical engine repair and overhaul shop. Rani Jarkas, chairman of Cedrus Group, said that the development of AI requires a large amount of electricity, chips, and applications, and China has it all. "Technology speaks for itself," he said. "I think the innovation will continue and the opportunities will grow for Chinese companies going abroad and for foreign companies to come to explore the market and set up local units here," he said. Huang Yanxiang, co-founder and CEO of Shanghai CarbonNewture and ESG expert, said the current wave of AI-led innovation in China is transforming industries by integrating AI with manufacturing, boosting efficiency, and giving rise to new business models. For CarbonNewture, this means deeply integrating AI into its carbon accounting platforms, improving data analysis and reporting capabilities to deliver more precise and actionable insights. The roundtable was jointly organized by China Daily Institute for Corporate Communication and China Services Information Platform. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE
