
Chinese economist calls US trade war ‘negative-sum' game at Boao Forum
A trade war is neither a win-win scenario nor a simple shift in gains, a Chinese economist said, calling such a conflict an exercise in a 'negative-sum logic' that contends for superiority at any cost - even the aggressor's own well-being.
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'Beyond the economic rationale of pursuing benefits, there's a political logic to trade – one that seeks to secure a country or economy's dominant position,' said Zhang Yuyan, dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' School of International Politics and Economics, at the Boao Forum for Asia on Tuesday.
'One way this logic plays out is by suppressing competitors – even if I incur losses myself, as long as my rival suffers greater losses, I can still maintain my advantage. This is a lose-lose situation.'
The sentiments in Zhang's opening address were echoed by other Chinese economists, who shared concerns over the state of global trade as US barriers
continue to rise
'I am quite pessimistic about the future of free trade because some major powers have abandoned multilateralism, with the World Trade Organization largely sidelined,' said Long Yongtu, China's chief negotiator during its accession to the UN body.
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The
Boao Forum for Asia - an annual gathering of high-level officials, academics and business executives - is being held in the southern island province of Hainan from Tuesday to Friday.
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Yet tensions are almost certain to flare up anew once Trump realizes that Beijing isn't coming forward with the concessions Trump thinks he deserves for cutting his China tariff by 79%. From Beijing's perspective, Trump backed off because he'd overreacted in the first place. As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon puts it, the tariffs were 'too large, too big and too aggressive' for the US economy's own good. Trouble is, Trump has a 40-plus-year track record of arguing that tariffs are the answer to virtually every economic problem imaginable. Trump's most consistent economic view through the decades is that Asia is exploiting the US and only import taxes can save the day. He's called tariffs 'beautiful' and claimed they will 'supercharge' the US economy. Yet as economists know, sizable tariffs can also be stagflationary. Team Xi appears to be following a blueprint provided by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In 2018 and 2019, Abe slow-walked negotiations with Trump 1.0. No doubt, Team Xi is busily strategizing on their own Abe-like dodge, minus the aggressive flattery. Xi's Communist Party, of course, does not have to contest mid-term elections 18 months from now. And Xi knows it. As such, Beijing is in no hurry to sign a 'Phase Two' trade agreement with a US leader sure to demand a 'Phase Three' round of talks a year from now. At the same time, US officials are learning that Trump's chaotic Phase One process prompted China to pivot to other markets. Today, China's top trading partner is the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations, followed by the European Union. Also, China is actively growing its market share among the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – and the Global South. Xi's 'Made in China 2025' strategy has been quietly making the nation more self-sufficient. All of which means Trump's hopes of pulling off a massive, world-changing trade deal are slipping away, even after his declaration after Thursday's call that such a deal is on the horizon. And if he's wondering who's to blame, all Trump needs to do is look in the mirror. Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek