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Irish Times
16 hours ago
- Business
- Irish Times
Ireland's economic data is bonkers but puts us in the spotlight
Most of us are so busy with work, family and friends that there is little time to ponder macro-economic trends. But, as Cliff Taylor observes this weekend, something is happening which is worth our attention, not least as there is a decent chance it may trickle down and start to impact our day to day lives. On Thursday some figures were published which were – according to Taylor – 'mind-bending' and 'bonkers' . In simple terms the figures suggested that for every €1 of activity last year, there was €1.22 in 2025, a rise of 22 per cent. READ MORE As Taylor notes this data bares no relation to the world in which we all live, work and make purchasing decisions. Instead, what is happening is Ireland's economic data is entirely distorted by the activities and tax planning of a tiny number of big pharma firms rushing to get drugs and key ingredients into the US market before Donald Trump announces tariffs on the sector. This led to a surge in exports from Ireland last month. But, as Taylor notes, 'let's not pretend this won't be noticed'. 'Our latest bout of data exceptionalism again puts Ireland in the spotlight, when it would have been better to keep the head down. 'It underlines the outsize take Ireland is getting from pharma and tech activity in the EU – both contentious points in the White House. 'Notably, the US added Ireland to an economic watch list this week, based on the size of our trade surplus.' Taylor says Ireland's corporate tax take and manufacturing base are looked on enviously not only from the US, but from Europe. How does all this matter to the average person? Well the figures again underline Ireland's huge reliance on the opaque affairs of four or five massive companies. And their volatility. Whatever about wild fluctuations within one month, what happens in the longer term is key. 'Will these pharma giants decide over time – and it would take years – to relocate some of their production to the US? Will their profits and thus tax payments here be hit by Trump's policies? Or will they – or some of the tech giants – alter their corporate structures so that they pay significantly less tax here,' Taylor asks? Ireland's vulnerability is clear. Separate data last week showed tax revenues from corporation tax was 30 per cent lower in May compared with the same month last year. Leaving aside a range of reasons for the sharp fall, in simple cents and euros this means, as of today, Government has €1 billion less to spend on houses, teachers, nurses in its bugdet for 2026 than it did from this source at this time last year. As Taylor writes what happens next 'comes down to whether Trump's policies change the way the economic and corporate world operates fundamentally, a fair bit or not much. 'As Ireland benefits from the current system so much, the more it changes, the more risks there are for us.' Five Key Reads The Dublin scout leader and the men who accuse him of abuse: Neville Kearns died in a crash in 2024, a day before he was due to stand trial on charges relating to assault, rape and attempted rape of boys in the 1980s and 1990s. Órla Ryan reports on this previously untold story. A guide to who owns St Stephen's Green: Historically linked to an anti-duelling group, Daniel O'Connell and the East India Company, today properties on 'the Green' house the offices of global corporations, an online retail giant and private clubs. Who owns them? Colm Keena investigates. The beaches here in Israel are full: Paul Kearns reports from Tel Aviv , where he says Israelis find themselves now living between two realities. There is the dystopian reality of Gaza next door, and then there is life in Israel, which has returned to relative normality. Co Kildare village to lose its last shop: Stephen Farrell reports from Johnstown , where for many, the impending closure of the shop is further evidence of the hollowing out of a village and its environs, which has more than 1,300 inhabitants who already have no school or post office. Dublin tenants shocked to be evicted due to 'little-known legal loophole': Kitty Holland reports how for a group of people in Applewood village in Swords , the landlord doesn't need a reason to remove them. As always, there is much more on , including rundowns of all the latest movies in our film reviews , tips for the best restaurants in our food section and all the latest in sport . There are plenty more articles exclusively available for Irish Times subscribers here . We value your views. Please feel free to send comments, feedback or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to feedback@ .
Irish Times
18-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Message from the Editor: Ireland's silent slowdown
The economic storm clouds that have been gathering since the start of this year show no signs of going away soon. It is not that the economy itself is losing momentum. Figures for the first part of the year show all the traditional indicators remain quite positive. Inflation is at 2 per cent. Employment and tax receipts remain on target. But far from abating, the notes of caution or even pessimism emanating from the Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure have risen slightly. It is not hard to see why. The actual effects of Donald Trump's wildly erratic announcements on trade and tariffs remain to be seen, but most economists still predict that their overall impact will be recessionary for the US economy, with a knock-on effect for trading partners like Ireland. More specifically, the threat to the pharmaceutical sector which supports so many well-paid Irish jobs and provides such a large part of the country's corporate tax revenues has not gone away. In fact, pharma exports in the first part of 2025 have been boosted by companies shipping more product earlier to avoid potential levies. And while in Ireland those traditional economic indicators remain stable, there is, as Cliff Taylor points out in this illuminating piece , growing anecdotal evidence that the uncertainty is taking a toll. Big capital investment projects are being put on hold. Some pharma companies have imposed hiring freezes. We have seen lay-offs in tech and the market for mergers and acquisitions has stalled. There are signs of caution at the top of the property market. 'The Irish economy is experiencing a silent slowdown, driven mainly by a fall-off in capital investment by businesses,' Cliff writes. The knock-on effect for the rest of the year is unknown, as is the answer to the question of what happens when the current 90-day tariff interregnum announced last month by Trump comes to an end this summer. Regardless of what happens, most economists calculate that the uncertainty already caused by these developments will make businesses more risk-averse and act as a drag on growth. READ MORE As Government Ministers see it, then, the challenge at the moment is to continue to chart the course they already laid out but to keep firmer control on the big spending departments and dampen public expectations of any more of the one-off financial supports that became a feature of the last government. Any further payments, if they happen at all, will be targeted at those most in need, the Taoiseach signalled to the Dáil this week. With cost-of-living pressures still bearing down on many middle and low-income families, that may prove a difficult line to hold, and a profitable point of attack for the Opposition. But the really difficult decisions will not be faced until the end of the summer, when pre-budget discussions get seriously under way. And in this year of international turbulence, nobody knows what state the world might be in by then. Ruadhán Mac Cormaic Editor Five Key Reads Irish sprinter Rhasidat Adeleke speaks to Malachy Clerkin about navigating fame at 22, building her brand and the changes she has made ahead of September's World Championships. Taking on the rotating presidency of the council of the European Union next year will likely cost the State more than €150 million, according to internal department estimates, acting Europe Correspondent Jack Power reports. Read the full story here . Comedian Dara Ó Briain talks to Róisín Ingle and describes his revelatory new stand-up show about the search for his biological father as like a real-life version of the film Elf China Correspondent Denis Staunton writes about Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh and how his comments there should banish any doubt that the US, the architect and arbiter of the 'rules-based international order', has turned its back on it. Stripe co-founder John Collison spoke to Ciara O'Brien about crypto, AI, his vision for Weston Airport and why his company doesn't need to list on the stock market This afternoon, Cork travel to Limerick in a crunch Munster hurling championship tie and Malachy Clerkin writes about how their rivalry has become the biggest game in Irish sport . Sign up to our new GAA newsletter to read all about the fallout on Monday. As always, there is much more on , including rundowns of all the latest movies in our film reviews , tips for the best restaurants in our food section and all the latest in sport . There are plenty more articles exclusively available for Irish Times subscribers here . We value your views. Please feel free to send comments, feedback or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to feedback@ .
