Ireland's economic data is bonkers but puts us in the spotlight

Irish Times

6 hours ago

Most of us are so busy with work, family and friends that there is little time to ponder macro-economic trends.
But, as Cliff Taylor observes this weekend, something is happening which is worth our attention, not least as there is a decent chance it may trickle down and start to impact our day to day lives.
On Thursday some figures were published which were – according to Taylor –
'mind-bending' and 'bonkers'
.
In simple terms the figures suggested that for every €1 of activity last year, there was €1.22 in 2025, a rise of 22 per cent.
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As Taylor notes this data bares no relation to the world in which we all live, work and make purchasing decisions.
Instead, what is happening is Ireland's economic data is entirely distorted by the activities and tax planning of a tiny number of big pharma firms rushing to get drugs and key ingredients into the
US
market before Donald Trump announces tariffs on the sector.
This led to a surge in exports from Ireland last month. But, as Taylor notes, 'let's not pretend this won't be noticed'.
'Our latest bout of data exceptionalism again puts Ireland in the spotlight, when it would have been better to keep the head down.
'It underlines the outsize take Ireland is getting from pharma and tech activity in the
EU
– both contentious points in the White House.
'Notably, the US added Ireland to an economic watch list this week, based on the size of our trade surplus.'
Taylor says Ireland's corporate tax take and manufacturing base are looked on enviously not only from the US, but from Europe.
How does all this matter to the average person? Well the figures again underline Ireland's huge reliance on the opaque affairs of four or five massive companies.
And their volatility.
Whatever about wild fluctuations within one month, what happens in the longer term is key.
'Will these pharma giants decide over time – and it would take years – to relocate some of their production to the US? Will their profits and thus tax payments here be hit by Trump's policies? Or will they – or some of the tech giants – alter their corporate structures so that they pay significantly less tax here,' Taylor asks?
Ireland's vulnerability is clear. Separate data last week showed
tax revenues from corporation tax was 30 per cent
lower in May compared with the same month last year.
Leaving aside a range of reasons for the sharp fall, in simple cents and euros this means, as of today, Government has €1 billion less to spend on houses, teachers, nurses in its bugdet for 2026 than it did from this source at this time last year.
As Taylor writes what happens next 'comes down to whether Trump's policies change the way the economic and corporate world operates fundamentally, a fair bit or not much.
'As Ireland benefits from the current system so much, the more it changes, the more risks there are for us.'
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