Message from the Editor: Ireland's silent slowdown
The economic storm clouds that have been gathering since the start of this year show no signs of going away soon. It is not that the economy itself is losing momentum. Figures for the first part of the year show all the traditional indicators remain quite positive. Inflation is at 2 per cent. Employment and tax receipts remain on target.
But far from abating, the notes of caution or even pessimism emanating from the Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure have risen slightly. It is not hard to see why. The actual effects of
Donald Trump's
wildly erratic announcements on trade and tariffs remain to be seen, but most economists still predict that their overall impact will be recessionary for the US economy, with a knock-on effect for trading partners like Ireland. More specifically, the threat to the pharmaceutical sector which supports so many well-paid Irish jobs and provides such a large part of the country's corporate tax revenues has not gone away. In fact, pharma exports in the first part of 2025 have been boosted by companies shipping more product earlier to avoid potential levies.
And while in Ireland those traditional economic indicators remain stable, there is, as Cliff Taylor points out in
this illuminating piece
, growing anecdotal evidence that the uncertainty is taking a toll. Big capital investment projects are being put on hold. Some pharma companies have imposed hiring freezes. We have seen lay-offs in tech and the market for mergers and acquisitions has stalled. There are signs of caution at the top of the property market. 'The Irish economy is experiencing a silent slowdown, driven mainly by a fall-off in capital investment by businesses,' Cliff writes.
The knock-on effect for the rest of the year is unknown, as is the answer to the question of what happens when the current 90-day tariff interregnum announced last month by Trump comes to an end this summer. Regardless of what happens, most economists calculate that the uncertainty already caused by these developments will make businesses more risk-averse and act as a drag on growth.
READ MORE
As Government Ministers see it, then, the challenge at the moment is to continue to chart the course they already laid out but to keep firmer control on the big spending departments and dampen public expectations of any more of the one-off financial supports that became a feature of the last government. Any further payments, if they happen at all, will be targeted at those most in need, the Taoiseach signalled to the Dáil this week.
With cost-of-living pressures still bearing down on many middle and low-income families, that may prove a difficult line to hold, and a profitable point of attack for the Opposition. But the really difficult decisions will not be faced until the end of the summer, when pre-budget discussions get seriously under way. And in this year of international turbulence, nobody knows what state the world might be in by then.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
Five Key Reads
Irish sprinter Rhasidat Adeleke
speaks to Malachy Clerkin about navigating fame at 22, building her brand and the changes she has made ahead of September's World Championships.
Taking on the rotating presidency of the council of the European Union next year will likely cost the State more than €150 million, according to internal department estimates, acting Europe Correspondent Jack Power reports.
Read the full story here
.
Comedian Dara Ó Briain talks to Róisín Ingle and describes his revelatory new stand-up show about
the search for his biological father
as like a real-life version of the film Elf
China Correspondent Denis Staunton writes about
Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh
and how his comments there should banish any doubt that the US, the architect and arbiter of the 'rules-based international order', has turned its back on it.
Stripe co-founder John Collison
spoke to Ciara O'Brien
about crypto, AI, his vision for Weston Airport and why his company doesn't need to list on the stock market
This afternoon, Cork travel to Limerick in a crunch Munster hurling championship tie and Malachy Clerkin writes about how their rivalry has become
the biggest game in Irish sport
. Sign up to
our new GAA newsletter
to read all about the fallout on Monday.
As always, there is much more on
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, including rundowns of all the latest movies in our
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, tips for the best restaurants in our
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and all the latest in
sport
. There are plenty more articles exclusively available for Irish Times subscribers
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RTÉ News
an hour ago
- RTÉ News
What powers is Donald Trump using to send troops to Los Angeles?
US President Donald Trump has invoked emergency powers to deploy US National Guard troops and active-duty marines to Los Angeles to quell protests against federal immigration raids. Here, we take a look at what powers Mr Trump is using to send these troops to LA. Is it legal? Mr Trump relied on a seldom-used law known as Title 10 to send an initial 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles. He has since ordered another 2,000 Guard members and 700 marines to the Californian city. National Guard troops are normally mobilised by a state governor and used domestically to respond to natural disasters such as floods or wildfires. Mr Trump, exceptionally, sent the troops to Los Angeles against the wishes of California's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom. The last time a president defied a state governor to deploy the Guard was in 1965, when president Lyndon B. Johnson sent troops to Alabama to protect civil rights protestors. Title 10 permits National Guard federalisation in times of "a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the government of the United States" but does not give the troops the powers to perform domestic law enforcement duties. The troops deployed to Los Angeles have been used so far only to provide security around federal buildings in the second-largest US city. Mr Newsom has accused Mr Trump of exceeding his authority by deploying the troops without his green light and has filed suit in federal court seeking to have the deployment declared unlawful. Insurrection Act Mr Trump would need to invoke the rarely-used Insurrection Act of 1807 to allow troops to expand their current role in Los Angeles, according to legal analysts. The Insurrection Act gives a president the authority to deploy the military domestically to perform law enforcement duties such as conducting searches and making arrests. The Insurrection Act was most recently invoked by president George H.W. Bush at the request of the then California governor to help put down riots in Los Angeles in 1992, that followed the acquittal of police officers involved in the beating of a Black motorist, Rodney King. It was used by president Johnson in 1968 to quell riots that broke out in the nation's capital and other cities following the assassination of civil rights leader, Martin Luther King Jr. Posse Comitatus Using the military domestically to conduct law enforcement activities is normally barred by another law, the 1878 Posse Comitatus Act. The Insurrection Act lets a president sidestep the Posse Comitatus Act to suppress "armed rebellion" or "domestic violence" and use the armed forces "as he considers necessary" to enforce the law. William Banks, a professor emeritus of law at Syracuse University, said the Insurrection Act and waiving of Posse Comitatus has been infrequent because of a long US history of "leaving law enforcement to civilians". "To sum up the conditions where (the Insurrection Act) may be used, it's for when all hell breaks loose," said Mr Banks, co-author of the book: Soldiers on the Home Front: The Domestic Role of the American Military. "When state and local officials are unable to control civil affairs without federal involvement, the federal government may intervene," he said. "It's normally been requested by the state officials, and the president simply agrees and decides to send a federal force," he said. Mr Newsom has said repeatedly that there was no need for the deployment of the National Guard and marines and that the Los Angeles Police Department was fully capable of handling the unrest.
Irish Times
2 hours ago
- Irish Times
How to buy a home by yourself
'How in the name of GOD are single people meant to buy their own home?' That's the title of a Reddit thread where solo first-time buyers in Ireland trade war stories and seek advice. Having house-shared for 13 years, 'Michael' has worked his way up the ladder at work and lived like a monk for six years to get mortgage approval in principle. Now he finds himself repeatedly outbid by couples. Other solo buyers pile on with similar woes. READ MORE There's the odd apocryphal tale of the tenant whose landlord took pity and sold to them at a discount, or the lowball bid that was miraculously accepted – but solo buyers can't bank on miracles. If you're buying on your own, here's how to give yourself the best chance. Who are the solo buyers? If you're a solo first time buyer, you're not alone. Almost 30 per cent of first-time buyers are buying on their own, according to Central Bank figures for 2023. The average value of a first-time-buyer mortgage approved in April this year hit a record €330,123, up by more than 8 per cent in a year, according to Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) figures. [ Move now or wait: First-time buyer and fixed mortgage rates Opens in new window ] First-time buyer lending limits of four times salary mean a single buyer would need earnings of €82,500, to borrow this amount. You will need a 10 per cent deposit too. That's about €33,000 if you are drawing down the average amount approved for first-time buyers nationally. Buying in Dublin is a different story and is 'extremely challenging' for solo buyers, says Ross Harrison of Dublin city-based mortgage broker Finplan. The median house price there is about €475,000. The majority of solo first-time buyers he sees work in tech or professional services and have higher-than-average salaries of €65,000 to €100,000. 'Those borrowing on a single income of between €60,000 and €80,000 are moving to Kildare,' says Harrison. Out in the commuter belt, Shane Tobin of Portlaoise-based Low Quotes mortgages agrees that it's not easy for solo first timers. 'They are typically borrowing in the region of €260,000 to €320,000, purchasing properties in the mid €300,000s and they are using the Help to Buy scheme. They couldn't buy without the Help to Buy,' says Harrison. The solo buyers he sees succeeding have significant savings, many get family support, and they will have to be open to relocating to more affordable regions, says Tobin. Ramp up If you're thinking of buying a first home, prepare for a lengthy on-ramp. Talk to a mortgage adviser at least 12 months out from purchasing and they will set you straight on wooing a lender. Bank statements that show a 'buy now pay later' habit, credit card debt, missed direct debits or someone routinely sliding into pay day on fumes really won't fly. 'We are seeing an awful lot of people using those [Klarna] facilities without realising the knock-on implications,' says Ross Harrison of Finplan. 'A bank will factor in that debt when assessing your ability to repay.' How to manage your pension in these volatile times Listen | 37:00 Use the 12 months before your mortgage application wisely, says Shane Tobin. 'A lender will look back at six to 12 months' bank statements, so you need to behave appropriately to be a serious contender to draw down a loan of €200,000 or €300,000.' Get forensic One of the most disheartening things for a buyer is being outbid. Where couples, who can borrow four times their combined income, or investors are competing for the same property, the solo buyer just doesn't have the same muscle. You can try to short-circuit some of this frustration by getting forensic about the type of first home you can most likely get over the line. If you're thinking of buying a first home, prepare for a lengthy on-ramp. Photograph: iStock With your 'four times income' borrowing number in mind, and your likely savings, use the Central Statistics Office's property prices by eircode app and the residential property price register to guide your search. Properties in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, for example, had the highest median price paid for a dwelling at €665,000, according to the CSO's residential property price index in March. By contrast, median prices in Dublin 10 were €311,000, or €440,000 in Dublin 15. The commuter belt widens options too. Median property prices range from €275,000 in Portlaoise to €280,000 in Arklow. In Drogheda the median price is €360,000, in Enfield it's €385,000, Naas is at €421,000 and Newbridge is €425,000, according to CSO figures. 'For people who are not open-minded about location, it's very difficult,' says Tobin. Solo buyers are opting for one- and two-bed apartments over houses too. 'A three-bed house used to be the first house 10 years ago, but that's an absolute luxury for the first-time buyer now.' [ Typical price paid for home by first-time buyer up €88,000 on five years ago Opens in new window ] Government schemes Many solo first-time buyers are availing of Government schemes to get them over the line. The Help to Buy scheme gives a refund of up to €30,000 of income tax and deposit interest tax you paid in Ireland over the four years before the year you apply. This can be used to bump up your house deposit, but it applies only to new-build homes valued at up to €500,000. Another option for first-time buyers is the shared equity, or First Home Scheme. This can be used in conjunction with the Help to Buy scheme. Under this scheme, the Government and participating banks pay up to 30 per cent of the cost of your new home (or 20 per cent if you're also getting Help to Buy), in return for a stake in the home. If you want, you can buy back the stake at any time, but you don't have to. It is aimed at closing the gap between what you might be able to afford and what you want to buy. 'It's becoming less of an issue for buyers that the Government would own equity in your home,' says Shane Tobin. [ Mortgages: If you're coming off a fixed rate now is the time to consider switching Opens in new window ] In the local authority areas of Dublin city, Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal, South Dublin and Cork city there is a price limit of €475,000 for buying a new house, and €500,000 for an apartment. In Co Wicklow, the price limit is €475,000 for all properties. In Co Kildare and Galway City, it's €450,000 for all properties. In Co Meath and Co Cork it's €425,000. In Limerick city and county the price limit is €425,000 for houses and €450,000 for apartments. You must borrow the maximum available to you, so four times your income, and you must have a 10 per cent deposit of the value of the home, though this can come from the Help to Buy scheme. A teacher after 10 years' service, for example, will be able to borrow a maximum of about €261,000. By using Government schemes, they could potentially purchase a home for about €375,000. This is through a combination of €10,000 of their own savings and €30,000 from Help to Buy making up the deposit; personal borrowings of €261,000, with €74,000, that's 20 per cent of the purchase price of the home, coming from the First Home Scheme. Shop lenders Different lenders will suit different buyers. A broker can help you find the one most likely to get you over the line. Bank of Ireland tends to be more favourable than other banks towards first-time buyers purchasing one-bed apartments, says Ross Harrison. 'Some other banks want a deposit of 20 per cent for one-beds,' he says. In general, the lower your interest rate and the shorter the term, the less you will pay over the lifetime of the mortgage. First-time buyers will have competing priorities, however. If you don't have six months of pristine bank statements, or you are living with parents and can't show a track record of rental payments, new entrant Núa Money might suit you. They look at your net disposable income, not your banking history, to assess eligibility. They look at bonus income more favourably too. They also offer loans to immigrant visa holders who have been here for six months and have passed work probation. Tobin recently worked with a solo buyer with one dependant earning €37,500 who got mortgage approval for €130,000 with Núa Money. Not having to show proven repayment ability worked in their favour. 'They went sale agreed on a doer-upper in Tipperary costing €155,000,' says Tobin. First-time buyer rates for an 80 to 90 per cent loan at 4.85 per cent are higher than other banks and you must fix for three years. If you're a public-sector worker, the Flexi product from ICS enables you to borrow several points further up the salary scale than some other banks. The Flexi is not the most competitive interest rate, but for customers looking for maximum borrowings to get on the ladder, the initial interest rate may not be the biggest factor. For 90 per cent loan to value, rates are 4.4 per cent, fixed for five years. You'll pay interest only for the first two years, then your repayments will jump for the remainder for the fix. Borrowers should note their mortgage will be more expensive in the longer run due to the Flexi product's interest-only start. MoCo and Núa Money will lend two points up the salary scale to public-sector workers while Avant will lend one point higher. PTSB and Bank of Ireland don't offer the feature. AIB will also go three points higher. Timing Government grants are driving solo buyers to new builds, but with that can come some timing issues. If you reserve a new home, go sale agreed and request your loan offer, the offer is valid with most banks for between four and six months. If the build is delayed, the loan offer may expire, meaning you have to reapply with updated salary certs, bank statements and a full assessment of affordability 'We see this with many buying new builds where there is a delay on completion and buyers have to update their mortgage application and reapply,' says Harrison. Keep your bank statements clean until you get the keys. Extra costs Solo buyers must budget for extra costs by themselves too. Stamp duty is 1 per cent of the purchase price, slightly less for a new build. Budget about €3,000 for a €300,000 home. You should be budgeting €3,000 to €3,500 to cover legal fees and outlays, says Harrison. A property survey which the bank will require will cost between €300 and €600 plus VAT, again shop around. Most lenders require you to take out mortgage protection insurance. Budget €20 to €30 a month, depending on your age and health. If you're buying a property in a managed development, you'll have to budget for an annual property management fee.
Irish Times
3 hours ago
- Irish Times
Child-related benefits lift 150,000 children out of poverty, ESRI finds
Child-related social benefits have lifted more than 150,000 children out of poverty in Ireland , according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) . It found Ireland's current system of offering child-related cash and in-kind benefits had reduced child poverty and deprivation, bringing an estimated 157,000 children out of income poverty and 94,000 out of consistent poverty. The study, published on Wednesday, is part of the ESRI's Budget Perspectives 2026 series. According to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), consistent poverty is defined as that applying to individuals who are at risk of poverty – meaning they have a low household income – and experience enforced deprivation. READ MORE The figures come shortly after the Children's Rights Alliance revealed the number of children in consistent poverty rose by 45,000 to more than 103,000 in 2024. Last week, a separate longitudinal survey of children in Ireland aged between 10 and 17 found 18.3 per cent were going to school or bed hungry because there was not enough food at home. Cash benefits such as Child Benefit and Working Families Payment are considered by the study, as well as in-kind benefits such as National Childcare Scheme subsidies and free schoolbooks and meals. Taking all of these into account, the simulated child consistent poverty rate was found to be 5.6 per cent. In the absence of such supports, however, the child consistent poverty rate would be 8 per cent higher, at 13.6 per cent. The predicted child At Risk of Poverty (AROP) rate for 2025 is 13.9 per cent, or about 165,000 children. In the absence of cash benefits, that would be 10 per cent higher, while an absence of in-kind benefits – such as free preschool and school meals – would increase the AROP rate by 1.5 per cent. ESRI associate research professor Karina Doorley, one of the report's authors, said child-related benefits were 'a powerful tool' in reducing poverty. 'Well-targeted reforms to the system of child-related benefits could further improve outcomes for children and families currently experiencing poverty. A second tier of child benefit could be a key part of that solution,' she said. The ESRI's proposed second tier of means-tested child benefit would reduce the child AROP rate by 4.6 percentage points (lifting 55,000 children out of income poverty) and consistent poverty by 2.1 percentage points (lifting 25,000 children out of consistent poverty), it said. It suggested this as the 'most cost-effective option' for targeting child poverty rates, at an annual cost of approximately €772 million.
