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Message from the Editor: Ireland's silent slowdown

Message from the Editor: Ireland's silent slowdown

Irish Times18-05-2025

The economic storm clouds that have been gathering since the start of this year show no signs of going away soon. It is not that the economy itself is losing momentum. Figures for the first part of the year show all the traditional indicators remain quite positive. Inflation is at 2 per cent. Employment and tax receipts remain on target.
But far from abating, the notes of caution or even pessimism emanating from the Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure have risen slightly. It is not hard to see why. The actual effects of
Donald Trump's
wildly erratic announcements on trade and tariffs remain to be seen, but most economists still predict that their overall impact will be recessionary for the US economy, with a knock-on effect for trading partners like Ireland. More specifically, the threat to the pharmaceutical sector which supports so many well-paid Irish jobs and provides such a large part of the country's corporate tax revenues has not gone away. In fact, pharma exports in the first part of 2025 have been boosted by companies shipping more product earlier to avoid potential levies.
And while in Ireland those traditional economic indicators remain stable, there is, as Cliff Taylor points out in
this illuminating piece
, growing anecdotal evidence that the uncertainty is taking a toll. Big capital investment projects are being put on hold. Some pharma companies have imposed hiring freezes. We have seen lay-offs in tech and the market for mergers and acquisitions has stalled. There are signs of caution at the top of the property market. 'The Irish economy is experiencing a silent slowdown, driven mainly by a fall-off in capital investment by businesses,' Cliff writes.
The knock-on effect for the rest of the year is unknown, as is the answer to the question of what happens when the current 90-day tariff interregnum announced last month by Trump comes to an end this summer. Regardless of what happens, most economists calculate that the uncertainty already caused by these developments will make businesses more risk-averse and act as a drag on growth.
READ MORE
As Government Ministers see it, then, the challenge at the moment is to continue to chart the course they already laid out but to keep firmer control on the big spending departments and dampen public expectations of any more of the one-off financial supports that became a feature of the last government. Any further payments, if they happen at all, will be targeted at those most in need, the Taoiseach signalled to the Dáil this week.
With cost-of-living pressures still bearing down on many middle and low-income families, that may prove a difficult line to hold, and a profitable point of attack for the Opposition. But the really difficult decisions will not be faced until the end of the summer, when pre-budget discussions get seriously under way. And in this year of international turbulence, nobody knows what state the world might be in by then.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
Five Key Reads
Irish sprinter Rhasidat Adeleke
speaks to Malachy Clerkin about navigating fame at 22, building her brand and the changes she has made ahead of September's World Championships.
Taking on the rotating presidency of the council of the European Union next year will likely cost the State more than €150 million, according to internal department estimates, acting Europe Correspondent Jack Power reports.
Read the full story here
.
Comedian Dara Ó Briain talks to Róisín Ingle and describes his revelatory new stand-up show about
the search for his biological father
as like a real-life version of the film Elf
China Correspondent Denis Staunton writes about
Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh
and how his comments there should banish any doubt that the US, the architect and arbiter of the 'rules-based international order', has turned its back on it.
Stripe co-founder John Collison
spoke to Ciara O'Brien
about crypto, AI, his vision for Weston Airport and why his company doesn't need to list on the stock market
This afternoon, Cork travel to Limerick in a crunch Munster hurling championship tie and Malachy Clerkin writes about how their rivalry has become
the biggest game in Irish sport
. Sign up to
our new GAA newsletter
to read all about the fallout on Monday.
As always, there is much more on
irishtimes.com
, including rundowns of all the latest movies in our
film reviews
, tips for the best restaurants in our
food section
and all the latest in
sport
. There are plenty more articles exclusively available for Irish Times subscribers
here
.
We value your views. Please feel free to send comments, feedback or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to
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What powers is Donald Trump using to send troops to Los Angeles?
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What powers is Donald Trump using to send troops to Los Angeles?

US President Donald Trump has invoked emergency powers to deploy US National Guard troops and active-duty marines to Los Angeles to quell protests against federal immigration raids. Here, we take a look at what powers Mr Trump is using to send these troops to LA. Is it legal? Mr Trump relied on a seldom-used law known as Title 10 to send an initial 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles. He has since ordered another 2,000 Guard members and 700 marines to the Californian city. National Guard troops are normally mobilised by a state governor and used domestically to respond to natural disasters such as floods or wildfires. Mr Trump, exceptionally, sent the troops to Los Angeles against the wishes of California's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom. The last time a president defied a state governor to deploy the Guard was in 1965, when president Lyndon B. Johnson sent troops to Alabama to protect civil rights protestors. Title 10 permits National Guard federalisation in times of "a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the government of the United States" but does not give the troops the powers to perform domestic law enforcement duties. The troops deployed to Los Angeles have been used so far only to provide security around federal buildings in the second-largest US city. Mr Newsom has accused Mr Trump of exceeding his authority by deploying the troops without his green light and has filed suit in federal court seeking to have the deployment declared unlawful. Insurrection Act Mr Trump would need to invoke the rarely-used Insurrection Act of 1807 to allow troops to expand their current role in Los Angeles, according to legal analysts. The Insurrection Act gives a president the authority to deploy the military domestically to perform law enforcement duties such as conducting searches and making arrests. The Insurrection Act was most recently invoked by president George H.W. Bush at the request of the then California governor to help put down riots in Los Angeles in 1992, that followed the acquittal of police officers involved in the beating of a Black motorist, Rodney King. It was used by president Johnson in 1968 to quell riots that broke out in the nation's capital and other cities following the assassination of civil rights leader, Martin Luther King Jr. Posse Comitatus Using the military domestically to conduct law enforcement activities is normally barred by another law, the 1878 Posse Comitatus Act. The Insurrection Act lets a president sidestep the Posse Comitatus Act to suppress "armed rebellion" or "domestic violence" and use the armed forces "as he considers necessary" to enforce the law. William Banks, a professor emeritus of law at Syracuse University, said the Insurrection Act and waiving of Posse Comitatus has been infrequent because of a long US history of "leaving law enforcement to civilians". "To sum up the conditions where (the Insurrection Act) may be used, it's for when all hell breaks loose," said Mr Banks, co-author of the book: Soldiers on the Home Front: The Domestic Role of the American Military. "When state and local officials are unable to control civil affairs without federal involvement, the federal government may intervene," he said. "It's normally been requested by the state officials, and the president simply agrees and decides to send a federal force," he said. Mr Newsom has said repeatedly that there was no need for the deployment of the National Guard and marines and that the Los Angeles Police Department was fully capable of handling the unrest.

How to buy a home by yourself
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How to buy a home by yourself

'How in the name of GOD are single people meant to buy their own home?' That's the title of a Reddit thread where solo first-time buyers in Ireland trade war stories and seek advice. Having house-shared for 13 years, 'Michael' has worked his way up the ladder at work and lived like a monk for six years to get mortgage approval in principle. Now he finds himself repeatedly outbid by couples. Other solo buyers pile on with similar woes. READ MORE There's the odd apocryphal tale of the tenant whose landlord took pity and sold to them at a discount, or the lowball bid that was miraculously accepted – but solo buyers can't bank on miracles. If you're buying on your own, here's how to give yourself the best chance. Who are the solo buyers? If you're a solo first time buyer, you're not alone. Almost 30 per cent of first-time buyers are buying on their own, according to Central Bank figures for 2023. 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Timing Government grants are driving solo buyers to new builds, but with that can come some timing issues. If you reserve a new home, go sale agreed and request your loan offer, the offer is valid with most banks for between four and six months. If the build is delayed, the loan offer may expire, meaning you have to reapply with updated salary certs, bank statements and a full assessment of affordability 'We see this with many buying new builds where there is a delay on completion and buyers have to update their mortgage application and reapply,' says Harrison. Keep your bank statements clean until you get the keys. Extra costs Solo buyers must budget for extra costs by themselves too. Stamp duty is 1 per cent of the purchase price, slightly less for a new build. Budget about €3,000 for a €300,000 home. You should be budgeting €3,000 to €3,500 to cover legal fees and outlays, says Harrison. 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Child-related benefits lift 150,000 children out of poverty, ESRI finds
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Child-related benefits lift 150,000 children out of poverty, ESRI finds

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