Message from the Editor: Ireland's silent slowdown
The economic storm clouds that have been gathering since the start of this year show no signs of going away soon. It is not that the economy itself is losing momentum. Figures for the first part of the year show all the traditional indicators remain quite positive. Inflation is at 2 per cent. Employment and tax receipts remain on target.
But far from abating, the notes of caution or even pessimism emanating from the Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure have risen slightly. It is not hard to see why. The actual effects of
Donald Trump's
wildly erratic announcements on trade and tariffs remain to be seen, but most economists still predict that their overall impact will be recessionary for the US economy, with a knock-on effect for trading partners like Ireland. More specifically, the threat to the pharmaceutical sector which supports so many well-paid Irish jobs and provides such a large part of the country's corporate tax revenues has not gone away. In fact, pharma exports in the first part of 2025 have been boosted by companies shipping more product earlier to avoid potential levies.
And while in Ireland those traditional economic indicators remain stable, there is, as Cliff Taylor points out in
this illuminating piece
, growing anecdotal evidence that the uncertainty is taking a toll. Big capital investment projects are being put on hold. Some pharma companies have imposed hiring freezes. We have seen lay-offs in tech and the market for mergers and acquisitions has stalled. There are signs of caution at the top of the property market. 'The Irish economy is experiencing a silent slowdown, driven mainly by a fall-off in capital investment by businesses,' Cliff writes.
The knock-on effect for the rest of the year is unknown, as is the answer to the question of what happens when the current 90-day tariff interregnum announced last month by Trump comes to an end this summer. Regardless of what happens, most economists calculate that the uncertainty already caused by these developments will make businesses more risk-averse and act as a drag on growth.
READ MORE
As Government Ministers see it, then, the challenge at the moment is to continue to chart the course they already laid out but to keep firmer control on the big spending departments and dampen public expectations of any more of the one-off financial supports that became a feature of the last government. Any further payments, if they happen at all, will be targeted at those most in need, the Taoiseach signalled to the Dáil this week.
With cost-of-living pressures still bearing down on many middle and low-income families, that may prove a difficult line to hold, and a profitable point of attack for the Opposition. But the really difficult decisions will not be faced until the end of the summer, when pre-budget discussions get seriously under way. And in this year of international turbulence, nobody knows what state the world might be in by then.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
Five Key Reads
Irish sprinter Rhasidat Adeleke
speaks to Malachy Clerkin about navigating fame at 22, building her brand and the changes she has made ahead of September's World Championships.
Taking on the rotating presidency of the council of the European Union next year will likely cost the State more than €150 million, according to internal department estimates, acting Europe Correspondent Jack Power reports.
Read the full story here
.
Comedian Dara Ó Briain talks to Róisín Ingle and describes his revelatory new stand-up show about
the search for his biological father
as like a real-life version of the film Elf
China Correspondent Denis Staunton writes about
Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh
and how his comments there should banish any doubt that the US, the architect and arbiter of the 'rules-based international order', has turned its back on it.
Stripe co-founder John Collison
spoke to Ciara O'Brien
about crypto, AI, his vision for Weston Airport and why his company doesn't need to list on the stock market
This afternoon, Cork travel to Limerick in a crunch Munster hurling championship tie and Malachy Clerkin writes about how their rivalry has become
the biggest game in Irish sport
. Sign up to
our new GAA newsletter
to read all about the fallout on Monday.
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, including rundowns of all the latest movies in our
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Letters to the Editor, June 12th: On rent market changes, the media and hurling
Sir, – For a political party that once declared their support for 'people who get up early in the morning', the changes announced in the rental market feels like a statutory stab in the back. As a property investor who had many sleepless nights during the 'crash', and who has worked hard all my life and done without, I now find my investments held hostage by a legislative tangle of incomprehensible rules and regulations. And why? All because a government has failed miserably to address the housing crisis and needs a fall guy to sate the baying populist politicians on the Opposition benches. Who was there for me when interest rates were rising, when the banks were spitting in my face and tenants were not to be found? No help, no rescue plan for landlords then. We struggled through at great cost, financially, emotionally and physically. READ MORE The Rental Control Zones (introduced in 2016) were to last just three years – they continue in place leaving many small landlords collecting rents that are at 60 per cent or less of market value in an environment of rising maintenance and management charges. Fine Gael should hang theirs collective heads in shame. In an effort to reach those who will never be theirs, they have left the 'true blues' out in the cold. A price will be paid. –Yours, etc, NEVILLE SCARGILL, Bray, Co Wicklow. Gender issues and the media Sir, – It's a rare and welcome sight to see an Irish journalist tackle the contentious trans debate, and Hugh Linehan's recent article does so with commendable courage (' Why is Irish Media so reticent about covering gender issues? ' June 9th) By addressing what others avoid, Linehan upholds George Orwell's standard that 'journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed; everything else is public relations'. For this, he deserves significant credit. However, I was puzzled by Linehan's description of me as 'an activist with a clear ideological stance'. I challenge him to define this supposed ideological stance, as I suspect he'll struggle to do so. My work is driven not by ideology but by a commitment to reality, biological facts, and professional responsibility. As a psychotherapist, I am duty-bound to advocate for best-practice care for gender-distressed young people, just as journalists like Linehan are obliged to confront challenging issues in the public sphere. It's unfortunate that his piece, while rightly noting Irish journalism's reluctance to engage with this topic, mischaracterises my mental health work as activism rather than professional integrity. In 2021, I founded Genspect, an international organisation that promotes a non-medicalised approach to gender-related distress. We believe that feminine boys should be free to wear dresses, and that masculine girls should be able to express stereotypically masculine traits, without being directed towards puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones. As a former masculine girl myself, I know firsthand how society struggles to accept gender-nonconforming children and I advocate for a world that embraces this nonconformity without relying on medical intervention. Genspect provides vital psychological support through regular online meetings for individuals harmed by medical transition, parents of trans-identified youth, and those who identify as transgender. With approximately 1,500 individuals supported, including over 360 detransitioners – people who have medically transitioned and now seek to reverse this transition – Genspect is the only organisation in the world that offers free support to detransitioners. This is not activism; it's a response to urgent, unmet needs. Linehan rightly notes that Irish journalism has too often sidestepped these complex issues. RTÉ, in particular, has avoided meaningful engagement, failing its obligations as a public service broadcaster. This silence has eroded clarity, rigour, and public trust. Linehan's article is a long-overdue example of intellectual honesty and moral courage. I hope it inspires more journalists to ask tough questions and engage thoughtfully. I also respectfully request that the paper of record clarify the characterisation of my work. – Yours, etc STELLA O'MALLEY, Birr, Co Offaly. Sir, – I would like to commend and thank Hugh Linehan for his acknowledgement of the failure of the Irish journalistic class (with a few notable exceptions) to do their job and report on the issues around gender identity and its impact on children and women. His explanation, or excuse, as to why this happened will be of little comfort to parents and women who have experienced radio (and print) silence in trying to engage in a national discussion about actual evidence, best practice, safeguarding and fairness. Linehan is correct that children, and women, deserve better. As a starting point, we need the media to do its job and report on the evidence and the facts. The Irish Times would do well to engage and finally reassert itself as a paper of record on this issue. – Yours etc, SHEENA McAFEE, Dartry, Dublin 6. Godly consultants Sir, – Tom O'Dowd MD (Letters, June 11th) asks 'how are managers expected to deal with a few highly unionised well-paid doctors with track records of bullying junior staff and playing the system?' Perhaps addressing them as God or Your Majesty would do the trick. –Yours, etc, BRIAN AHERN, Clonsilla, Dublin. Nursing homes scandals Sir, – The recent horrifying revelations concerning maltreatment of some residents in some care homes indirectly highlights the critical importance of enabling infirm people to remain in their own homes for as long as is feasible. A critical factor, in enabling people to remain in their homes for as long as possible, is the support that they receive, especially, and not just from family members and neighbours, but also from the unsung heroes, the health care assistants who visit infirm people in their homes and provide them with the sustenance and care that they need order to supplement their support. We see this in the case of an elderly family member. Included in this rank of busy and extremely burdened health care assistants are the many who are non-nationals in origin and who, alongside their Irish counterparts, provide empathetic and utterly devoted care, sometimes to a level way beyond their employment remit. Let us celebrate all those who deserve celebration, who all too often are undervalued even though what they do, on a daily basis, is some of the most important work in society. Without this vital group of healthcare workers there are many, now contently living at home, who would already be in care homes, perhaps receiving less than optimal care for their individual needs, not to mention the premature loss of their autonomy. Proper pay and conditions, sufficient time for visits and proper recognition of the invaluable role of these vital people within society ought to be a minimum practical provision in a truly caring society. – Yours, etc, REGINA and ANTHONY LAYNG, Ringsend Road, Dublin 4. Sir, – Prof Des O'Neill calls for a number of measures, including stronger advocacy voices, to address the lingering crisis in our nursing homes ('Has anything changed since Leas Cross?', June 10th ). Unfortunately, there will never be enough professionally trained advocates to help residents. The wider community can play a pivotal role in this regard. The theme of World Elder Abuse Awareness Day on June 15th is connection is protection – by being good neighbours and watching out for each other we can protect the most vulnerable from potential abuse. Residents living in nursing homes become quickly disconnected from the rest of society with many experiencing profound loneliness. Such a situation can be a breeding ground for bad work practices and abuse. Communities who visit residents regularly in their local nursing homes are uniquely placed to break the cycle of loneliness, call out poor standards of care and become advocates for the most vulnerable. The persistent determination of those families who continue to fight for their loved ones featured in the recent RTÉ Investigates: Inside Ireland's Nursing Homes should be a rallying call for communities to take up the mantle. – Yours, etc, TONY CARROLL, Beaumont, Dublin. Trump and fatigue Sir, – US president Donald Trump seems intent on testing the powers of his office to the limit. Perhaps it is time for the United States to consider changing the first line of the preamble to the Constitution from 'we the people' to 'I, the President. – Yours, etc, NUALA DELANEY, Killiney, Co Dublin. Sir, – Would it be possible to publish the paper for a week without a reference to President Trump ? I'd settle for a day. – Yours, etc, PAUL WALSH, Co Dublin. Freedom flotilla interception Sir, – So the Israeli military forces intercepted and seized the non-profit Freedom Flotilla Coalition's yacht in international waters, while she was sailing to Gaza with a symbolic contribution of urgently needed humanitarian aid. The stomach churning photo of an Israel Defense Forces individual pressing a sandwich and orange juice on a bemused Greta Thunberg said it all. There were reports that the flotilla detainees would be subjected to a film, while 'guests of the nation', about the original attack by Hamas on Israel in October, 2023. One wonders, purely for balance, if the Israeli government would also show a documentary on the total destruction of Gaza and the killing of an estimated 54,000 people in 20 months of ruthless and incessant bombardment. It was probably unlikely that there would be time to show the detail, in the face of Israel's haste to get the turbulent group of flotilla volunteers off their hands. –Yours, etc, PATRICK JUDGE, Dún Laoghaire, Co Dublin. An affront to humanity Sir, – The release of Ratko Mladic (' Ratko Mladic: Terminally ill Bosnian Serb general serving life for genocide seeks release, ' June 10th) would be an affront to humanity and the entire concept of justice itself. Last year I visited Sarajevo and Mostar, having previously studied the Bosnian war and genocide. I am lucky enough to not have lived during such utter depravity, but its lessons on ethnonationalism and the failure of the international community should never be forgotten. As you stand in the Sehidsko Mezarje Kovaci cemetery next to the old town in Sarajevo, you will witness young people weep as they mourn their parents who never had the chance to see their children go to college or have families; the partners and parents of those who were blown to bits before their very eyes by Serb mortars. They remember what Mladic did to Bosnia like it was yesterday, and it will haunt them for the rest of their lives. Victims of a brutal 1,425-day siege, a city abandoned to slaughter by the world. Today, it stands as a city where Muslims, Jews and Christians worship and live side by side, as they have done for over 500 years; a stark contrast to the vision of a resurgent reactionary nationalism across Europe, the United States and the Middle East. Mladic's lawyers have argued that he should be allowed to live out the remainder of his days alongside his family; there can be no true justice for what happened in Bosnia. However, allowing Mladic to experience freedom would be the most grotesque injustice for those who will never cease to mourn. Will international justice fail them once again? – Yours, etc, ANDREW DUNNE, Rialto, Dublin 8. Free-flowing hurling Sir, – Gordon Manning's article about referees and free-flowing hurling('I f we want free-flowing hurling we must accept the refereeing that facilitates it, ' June 10th,) is timely. When the subject of free-flowing hurling is discussed, it is normally assumed that it is entirely the prerogative of the referee that a match is free-flowing ie. the referee tolerates a certain level of fouling or rule-breaking in the interests of a free-flowing game. For some strange reason, the spotlight is never placed on the players who commit the fouls and break the rules. Players behaviour should be placed at the centre of any debate regarding the desire for a free-flowing game. It is quite simple – play by the rules and there will be fewer frees. Then you get a free-flowing game that avoids dubious (and often dangerous) tackles that otherwise become the norm in a match. – Yours, etc, EAMON O'FLYNN, Merrion Road, Dublin 4. Unrestricted censorship Sir, –I had quite a different experience of a library than the one experienced by President Michael D Higgins and detailed by Ray Burke in An Irish Diary (June 9th). All the books were bad for you in the one I visited, but I nevertheless had unrestricted access to them. The Department of Justice had a store of banned publications which they kindly allowed me entry to about 25 years ago. As Burke points out, so many famous authors had had their works scrutinised that the censors handled what are now very valuable books. I visited the collection to see if there were editions that should have been transferred to the National Library or otherwise preserved. Unfortunately, there weren't. Instead, there were shelves of randomly assorted volumes and a small selection of top shelf magazines. The books ranged from aged historical romances that had left my teenage sisters undamaged (and which were by then available in any second-hand shop in the country), to more recherché and pornographic texts in Latin (which no one bothered to ban as they were protected by classic status). While no individual work was valuable, the collection is of considerable interest as it contained the underlinings and jottings of the censorship committee members and I hope that it has been preserved intact. – Yours, etc, JOHN FLOOD, University of Groningen, The Netherlands.
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3 hours ago
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One in five Irish consumers seeking a house to rent or buy
Almost one in five consumers in the Republic say they are looking to either rent or buy a property , the second highest rate in Europe, according to Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI). In its latest housing market monitor, the banking lobby group mined data from the European Central Bank 's (ECB) consumer expectations survey for February, showing a high level of latent or unmet demand for housing in the Irish market. The BPFI said demand for housing continues to rise, with 17 per cent of consumers reporting that they were looking to rent or buy, the second highest rate in Europe after the Netherlands (20.9 per cent). Among those renting, more than a quarter (26.3 per cent) were looking for accommodation, while one in five of those with a mortgage were actively looking for new housing. READ MORE 'The strong demand for housing especially among first-time buyers [FTBs] is also evident in the fact that 17,144 applications were received by the Revenue Commissioners for Help to Buy in the first four months of this year, almost 5,000 more than in the same period of 2024,' said BPFI chief executive Brian Hayes. However, Mr Hayes noted that on the supply side, only one in 10 (10.5 per cent) owner occupiers said they were rather likely or very likely to sell. Will rent reform make building apartments viable? Listen | 40:12 'We expect to see housing demand continue, mainly driven by demographic trends and mortgage demand, especially by FTBs due to the more positive outlook on incomes, with gross average earnings now surpassing €1,000 per week for the first time since the CSO [Central Statistics Office] data series began in 20088,' said Mr Hayes. 'On the supply side, however, there is significant uncertainty in terms of housing output in the medium term.' In its report, the BPFI noted that while the State is experiencing employment and population growth, the supply of housing has fallen behind. It noted that almost 6,000 new dwellings were completed in the first quarter, 2 per cent up on the same period last year. In annualised terms, there were 30,356 housing completions in the 12 months ending in March 2025. The Government's Housing for All output target is for the construction of 41,000 new homes in 2025, but given that overall completions fell back to 30,000 last year, few analysts expect this target to be achieved. 'We know that Ireland's population increased by around 735,000 people between 2014 and 2024 while in the same period, employment increased by nearly 739,000,' said Mr Hayes. 'Meanwhile, housing completions in Ireland declined in 2024 for the first time since 2013, excluding the period between 2020 and 2021, when the pandemic affected activity significantly,' he said. The BPFI also highlighted a worrying drop-off in housing commencements, the strongest indicator of future supply. After a significant rise in commencements in 2004, to just over 69,000 units mainly due to waivers on development levy and water connections charges, the BPFI's report said commencement numbers for the first four months of 2025 are 'discouraging' at 3,945 units, around 40 per cent of the levels observed in 2023 and similar to levels seen in 2016. The BPFI also noted that 73,626 units were granted permission in 2023 and 2024 in total, 'which is not encouraging for future years' potential housing output'. Planning permissions declined by more than 21 per cent between 2023 and 2024, with permissions issued for apartments dropping by more than 38 per cent during the period. In terms of mortgage activity, the BPFI noted there were 9,190 mortgage drawdowns in the first quarter of 2025 valued at €2.8 billion, an increase of 10 per cent in volume terms.
