Message from the Editor: Ireland's silent slowdown
The economic storm clouds that have been gathering since the start of this year show no signs of going away soon. It is not that the economy itself is losing momentum. Figures for the first part of the year show all the traditional indicators remain quite positive. Inflation is at 2 per cent. Employment and tax receipts remain on target.
But far from abating, the notes of caution or even pessimism emanating from the Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure have risen slightly. It is not hard to see why. The actual effects of
Donald Trump's
wildly erratic announcements on trade and tariffs remain to be seen, but most economists still predict that their overall impact will be recessionary for the US economy, with a knock-on effect for trading partners like Ireland. More specifically, the threat to the pharmaceutical sector which supports so many well-paid Irish jobs and provides such a large part of the country's corporate tax revenues has not gone away. In fact, pharma exports in the first part of 2025 have been boosted by companies shipping more product earlier to avoid potential levies.
And while in Ireland those traditional economic indicators remain stable, there is, as Cliff Taylor points out in
this illuminating piece
, growing anecdotal evidence that the uncertainty is taking a toll. Big capital investment projects are being put on hold. Some pharma companies have imposed hiring freezes. We have seen lay-offs in tech and the market for mergers and acquisitions has stalled. There are signs of caution at the top of the property market. 'The Irish economy is experiencing a silent slowdown, driven mainly by a fall-off in capital investment by businesses,' Cliff writes.
The knock-on effect for the rest of the year is unknown, as is the answer to the question of what happens when the current 90-day tariff interregnum announced last month by Trump comes to an end this summer. Regardless of what happens, most economists calculate that the uncertainty already caused by these developments will make businesses more risk-averse and act as a drag on growth.
READ MORE
As Government Ministers see it, then, the challenge at the moment is to continue to chart the course they already laid out but to keep firmer control on the big spending departments and dampen public expectations of any more of the one-off financial supports that became a feature of the last government. Any further payments, if they happen at all, will be targeted at those most in need, the Taoiseach signalled to the Dáil this week.
With cost-of-living pressures still bearing down on many middle and low-income families, that may prove a difficult line to hold, and a profitable point of attack for the Opposition. But the really difficult decisions will not be faced until the end of the summer, when pre-budget discussions get seriously under way. And in this year of international turbulence, nobody knows what state the world might be in by then.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
Five Key Reads
Irish sprinter Rhasidat Adeleke
speaks to Malachy Clerkin about navigating fame at 22, building her brand and the changes she has made ahead of September's World Championships.
Taking on the rotating presidency of the council of the European Union next year will likely cost the State more than €150 million, according to internal department estimates, acting Europe Correspondent Jack Power reports.
Read the full story here
.
Comedian Dara Ó Briain talks to Róisín Ingle and describes his revelatory new stand-up show about
the search for his biological father
as like a real-life version of the film Elf
China Correspondent Denis Staunton writes about
Donald Trump's visit to Riyadh
and how his comments there should banish any doubt that the US, the architect and arbiter of the 'rules-based international order', has turned its back on it.
Stripe co-founder John Collison
spoke to Ciara O'Brien
about crypto, AI, his vision for Weston Airport and why his company doesn't need to list on the stock market
This afternoon, Cork travel to Limerick in a crunch Munster hurling championship tie and Malachy Clerkin writes about how their rivalry has become
the biggest game in Irish sport
. Sign up to
our new GAA newsletter
to read all about the fallout on Monday.
As always, there is much more on
irishtimes.com
, including rundowns of all the latest movies in our
film reviews
, tips for the best restaurants in our
food section
and all the latest in
sport
. There are plenty more articles exclusively available for Irish Times subscribers
here
.
We value your views. Please feel free to send comments, feedback or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to
feedback@irishtimes.com
.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Irish Examiner
29 minutes ago
- Irish Examiner
Protests intensify in Los Angeles after Trump deploys National Guard troops
Tensions in Los Angeles escalated on Sunday as thousands of protesters took to the streets in response to US President Donald Trump's deployment of the National Guard. They blocked off a major road and set self-driving cars on fire as law enforcement used tear gas, rubber bullets and flash bangs to control the crowd. Many protesters dispersed as evening fell and police declared an unlawful assembly, a precursor to officers moving in and making arrests of people who do not leave. Some of those remaining threw objects at police from behind a makeshift barrier that spanned the width of a street and others hurled chunks of concrete, rocks, electric scooters and fireworks at California Highway Patrol officers and their vehicles parked on the closed southbound 101 freeway. Officers ran under an overpass to take cover. People take cover as a firework explodes during a protest near the Metropolitan Detention Centre in Los Angeles (Ethan Swope/AP) Sunday's protests in Los Angeles, a sprawling city of four million people, were centred in downtown several blocks. It was the third and most intense day of demonstrations against Mr Trump's immigration crackdown in the region, as the arrival of around 300 Guard troops spurred anger and fear among many residents. The Guard was deployed specifically to protect federal buildings, including the detention centre where protesters concentrated. Los Angeles Police Chief Jim McDonnell said officers were 'overwhelmed' by the remaining protesters. He said they included regular agitators who appear at demonstrations to cause trouble. Several dozen people were arrested throughout the weekend of protest. One was detained on Sunday for throwing a Molotov cocktail at police, and another for ramming a motorcycle into a line of officers. Let's get this straight: 1) Local law enforcement didn't need help. 2) Trump sent troops anyway — to manufacture chaos and violence. 3) Trump succeeded. 4) Now things are destabilized and we need to send in more law enforcement just to clean up Trump's mess. — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 9, 2025 Mr Trump responded to Mr McDonnell on Truth Social, telling him to arrest protesters in face masks. 'Looking really bad in L.A. BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!' he wrote. Starting in the morning, the troops stood shoulder to shoulder, carrying long guns and riot shields as protesters shouted 'shame' and 'go home'. After some closely approached the guard members, another set of uniformed officers advanced on the group, shooting smoke-filled canisters into the street. Minutes later, the Los Angeles Police Department fired rounds of crowd-control munitions to disperse the protesters, who they said were assembled unlawfully. Much of the group then moved to block traffic on the 101 freeway until state patrol officers cleared them from the roadway by late afternoon. Nearby, at least four self-driving Waymo cars were set on fire, sending large plumes of black smoke into the sky and exploding intermittently as the electric vehicles burned. By evening, police had issued an unlawful assembly order shutting down several blocks of downtown Los Angeles. A protester stands on a burning Waymo taxi in Los Angeles (Eric Thayer/AP) Flash bangs echoed out every few seconds into the evening. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom requested that Mr Trump remove the guard members in a letter on Sunday afternoon, calling their deployment a 'serious breach of state sovereignty'. He was in Los Angeles meeting local law enforcement and officials. The deployment appeared to be the first time in decades that a state's national guard was activated without a request from its governor, a significant escalation against those who have sought to hinder the administration's mass deportation efforts. Mr Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass blamed the increasingly aggressive protests on Mr Trump's decision to deploy the Guard, calling it a move designed to inflame tensions. They have both urged protesters to remain peaceful. 'What we're seeing in Los Angeles is chaos that is provoked by the administration,' she said in an afternoon press conference. 'This is about another agenda, this isn't about public safety.' But Mr McDonnell, the LAPD chief, said the protests were following a similar pattern for episodes of civil unrest, with things ramping up in the second and third days. He pushed back against claims by the Trump administration that the LAPD had failed to help federal authorities when protests broke out on Friday after a series of immigration raids. A California Highway Patrol officer pulls an electric scooter off a vehicle as protesters throw objects at the police vehicles near the Metropolitan Detention Centre in Los Angeles (Ethan Swope/AP) His department responded as quickly as it could, and had not been notified in advance of the raids and therefore was not pre-positioned for protests, he said. Mr Newsom, meanwhile, has repeatedly said that California authorities had the situation under control. He mocked Mr Trump for posting a congratulatory message to the Guard on social media before troops had even arrived in Los Angeles, and said on MSNBC that Mr Trump never floated deploying the Guard during a Friday phone call. He called Mr Trump a 'stone cold liar'. The admonishments did not deter the administration. 'It's a bald-faced lie for Newsom to claim there was no problem in Los Angeles before President Trump got involved,' White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement. The arrival of the National Guard followed two days of protests that began Friday in Los Angeles before spreading on Saturday to Paramount, a heavily Latino city south of the city, and neighbouring Compton. Federal agents arrested immigrants in LA's fashion district, in a Home Depot parking lot and at several other locations on Friday. The next day, they were staging at a Department of Homeland Security office near another Home Depot in Paramount, which drew out protesters who suspected another raid. Federal authorities later said there was no enforcement activity at that Home Depot. The weeklong tally of immigrant arrests in the LA area climbed above 100, federal authorities said. Many more were arrested while protesting, including a prominent union leader who was accused of impeding law enforcement. The protests did not reach the size of past demonstrations that brought the National Guard to Los Angeles, including the Watts and Rodney King riots, and the 2020 protests against police violence, in which Mr Newsom requested the assistance of federal troops. The last time the National Guard was activated without a governor's permission was in 1965, when President Lyndon B Johnson sent troops to protect a civil rights march in Alabama, according to the Brennan Centre for Justice. In a directive on Saturday, Mr Trump invoked a legal provision allowing him to deploy federal service members when there is 'a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States'. He said he had authorised the deployment of 2,000 members of the National Guard. Mr Trump told reporters as he prepared to board Air Force One in Morristown, New Jersey, Sunday that there were 'violent people' in Los Angeles 'and they're not going to get away with it'. Asked if he planned to send US troops to Los Angeles, Mr Trump replied: 'We're going to have troops everywhere. We're not going to let this happen to our country.' He did not elaborate. About 500 marines stationed at Twentynine Palms, about 125 miles (200 kilometres) east of Los Angeles were in a 'prepared to deploy status' on Sunday afternoon, according to the US Northern Command.
Irish Times
29 minutes ago
- Irish Times
Trump's US travel ban on citizens from 12 countries comes into effect
US president Donald Trump's order banning citizens of 12 countries from entering the United States came into effect at midnight, US eastern time, on Monday. The countries affected by the latest travel ban, which the president claims will protect the US from 'foreign terrorists', are Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. The entry of people from seven other countries – Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela – will be partially restricted. Mr Trump said the countries subject to the most severe restrictions were determined to harbour a 'large-scale presence of terrorists,' fail to co-operate on visa security, have an inability to verify travellers' identities, as well as inadequate record-keeping of criminal histories and high rates of visa overstays in the United States. READ MORE He cited last Sunday's incident in Boulder, Colorado, in which an Egyptian national tossed a gasoline bomb into a crowd of pro-Israel demonstrators as an example of why the new curbs are needed. Egypt is not part of the travel ban. The travel ban forms part of Mr Trump's policy to restrict immigration into the United States and is reminiscent of a similar move in his first term when he barred travellers from seven Muslim-majority nations. Officials and residents in countries whose citizens will soon be banned expressed dismay and disbelief. Chad president Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno said he had instructed his government to stop granting visas to US citizens in response to Mr Trump's action. 'Chad has neither planes to offer nor billions of dollars to give, but Chad has its dignity and its pride,' he said in a Facebook post, referring to countries such as Qatar, which gifted the US a luxury airplane for Mr Trump's use and promised to invest billions of dollars in the United States. [ Los Angeles protests: opposition to Trump immigration crackdown intensifies amid clashes with police Opens in new window ] Afghans who worked for the United States or US-funded projects and were hoping to resettle in the United States expressed fear that the travel ban would force them to return to their country, where they could face reprisal from the Taliban. Democratic US lawmakers also voiced concern about the policies. 'Trump's travel ban on citizens from over 12 countries is draconian and unconstitutional,' said Representative Ro Khanna on social media late on Thursday. 'People have a right to seek asylum.' – Reuters
Irish Times
42 minutes ago
- Irish Times
Rules for renters: What are the planned reforms and will they work?
What's happening to the rules governing renting? A proposed overhaul of rules is going before Cabinet on Tuesday morning. It would see a significant shake-up in the rental market in the months ahead. What are the current rules? Rent Pressure Zones (RPZs) were introduced in 2016 to cap rent increases in areas where there was a very high demand for housing and rental homes. Initially, RPZs were confined to large urban centres but, as the housing crisis deepened, more and more areas were designated RPZs. In these locations, as it stands, rent increases cannot be greater than the rate of inflation or 2 per cent – whichever is lower. What are the changes proposed? The Government is planning to keep the caps for existing tenancies, at least to a large degree, while easing restrictions on rent increases for newly built homes. The plan – and it has yet to be agreed – would see the current RPZ annual caps not apply to new buildings constructed after a certain date, with the rents in qualifying properties instead to be tied to inflation. [ Rent controls to be eased for new builds in planned 'pressure zones' reform Opens in new window ] And why would the Government create what looks like a two-tiered rental system? In fairness, there is already a two-tiered system, with some properties in RPZs and some not, so what the Government is considering is a three-tiered system. READ MORE What is the market currently like for rents? Rents are climbing faster than at any point over the past 20 years, with the national monthly average between January and March surpassing €2,000 for the first time, according to a report from That compares to a low of just €765 in 2011. Why are rents climbing so fast? Much of that increase is down to a lack of supply. There were just 2,300 homes available to rent nationally on May 1st, down 14 per cent year-on-year and the third-lowest total for May in 20 years. In a properly functioning market that number should be closer to 10,000. Why is supply such an issue? There are many, many reasons but the author of the report, Trinity College Dublin economist Ronan Lyons, has said changes made to rent controls in 2021 when rent caps were reduced from 4 per cent to 2 per cent 'dramatically reduced the ability of Ireland's rental sector to attract the capital needed for new supply, the ultimate remedy for the shortage'. And this overhaul is aimed at attracting that capital, is that correct? That is the rationale, certainly. The thinking is that if rent restrictions are eased for new apartments, more money will pour into the sector and more apartments will be built, which will ease the pressure on the market as a whole. Will the owners of these new builds be able to charge what they want? They will be able to charge what the market will bear, for sure. However, there is some good news for people who are renting now: under the proposals the existing cap of 2 per cent will remain in place – at least for existing tenancies, but landlords will be able to increase the rent to the market rate between tenancies, something which is not permitted under the current rules. [ Ireland's rising rents: 'Our budget would have been €1,300 a month, there isn't even anything listed for that' Opens in new window ] Surely that will incentivise landlords to evict their current tenants so they can get new ones in and charge them more? That is undoubtedly a fear. Under the proposals going before Cabinet, there will be more protections put in place for renters for a minimum of six years. During that period, there will be restrictions put in place on no-fault evictions. At the end of a six-year period, a landlord will be able to reset the rent to the market rate. Opposition parties have questioned the adequacy of these planned protections. Will the changes work? That is the big, big question. It is undoubtedly in the Government's interests that it does work. Part of the Government's pitch to voters in the run-up to the last general election was that the State had turned a corner on housing and that the supply of new homes would hit 40,000 in 2024. Completions instead fell by 7 per cent to 30,000. Housing commencements, which indicate future supply, have also fallen off a cliff, with housing starts in the first quarter of 2025 eight times down on last year and at their at their lowest level since 2016. The rate of building when it comes to apartments is even worse. What are interested parties saying about the proposals? Many are unconvinced. The housing charity Threshold has welcomed the degree of security it will give to tenants if restrictions on no-fault evictions are imposed for a six-year period. However, it stressed that it could actually push more people into homelessness if the RPZs are diluted. Sinn Féin housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin dismissed the plan as 'utter madness' and said renters were being punished for Government housing failures by even higher rents and greater uncertainty. Mary Conway of the Irish Property Owners Association was downbeat for other reasons. 'There seems to be so many tiers to it and, while the institutional investors are getting favoured, there is nothing for the small property owners and nothing happening for rural areas – that is our biggest concern.' Ian Lawlor or Roundtower Capital, which funds building projects, said the proposals increased rather than reduced uncertainty, adding what was needed was all-party buy in for a 10-year plan 'to deliver these houses at scale'. He warned that the new measures would show those currently in the market that they were not valued. 'Small investors are leaving the market [and] they'll continue to sell up and leave.' Dr Lyons was more upbeat about the measures. He said, while the 'devil would be in the detail', it was a 'qualified positive' step. 'I don't think it's going to make that much a difference between the older and the newer stock. The more important change to me is the resetting when the tenant leaves. 'I think one of the biggest challenges institutional investors have is the combination of very low annual increases and the inability to reset when a tenant leaves. It's certainly not everything investors would have wanted but it might be considered a step in the right direction to encourage new rental supply. So I think it is a qualified positive.'
