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Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Commodity Radar: Gold jumps Rs 1,700 on MCX amid Trump's fresh tariff threats. 5 technical signals to watch
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tech view Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads 5 technical insights before making a trade: 1) Key levels 2) RSI (14): 57.49 – Bullish tilt with room to expand 3) Bollinger Bands: Expanding, suggesting volatility resumption 4) Moving Averages – EMA 8 & EMA 21 suggest bullish cross confirmed EMA 8 (Yellow): Rs 96,640 EMA 21 (Red): Rs 96,000 Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Fundamentals Gold strategy: Buy-on-Dips Gold prices surged 2% or by Rs 1,740 on Monday following Donald Trump administration's threat of doubling steel import levies to 50%. The domestic prices took cues from the international prices which were up by $66 per troy ounce and trading around $3, 7 pm, the MCX June gold futures were trading at Rs 97,473, up by Rs 1,598 or 1.67% from the last closing price of Rs 95, gold prices were up, gaining from a slip in the dollar index (DXY) which was hovering around 99 against a basket of six top currencies. It was down by 0.43 points or 0.43% at 98.90. It has declined by 0.21% over the past five trading sessions.'Gold reacted positively as market priced in the re-rising geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine, following intensified cross-border retaliations,' Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said."Gold August futures rebounded strongly from the Rs 96,100 zone and closed the week at Rs 97,196, showing bullish intent. Price is attempting a breakout from the recent consolidation range and now trades well above both short-term and medium-term averages," Trivedi near-term support and last week's low is at 96,000 while a major swing support and psychological base is seen at Rs 94,000. Rs 92,200 is the trend-defining base and a breakdown below this invalidates bearish structure, Trivedi said. He sees immediate resistance at Rs 97,500 which was last week's high while the intermediate resistance lies near the upper bollinger band of Rs 98,400."The bias remains positive as long as Rs 96,000 holds and a close above Rs 97,500 could push prices quickly toward Rs 98,400–Rs 99, RSI has rebounded from the 50-support level and currently rests near 59, suggesting a mild bullish bias. While the oscillator is not in overbought territory, it reflects a recovering trend. A break above Rs 96,700 could fuel further momentum toward overbought zones. On the contrary, a fall below Rs 95,200 may see the RSI dropping back toward neutral RSI has rebounded from previous lows and now stands at 57.5, pointing toward a rising bullish momentum. It is not yet in overbought territory, indicating that there's still room for upside. A sustained move above 60 will reinforce bullish bands are starting to widen, suggesting that volatility may be returning after a contractionphase in mid-May. The price is now hugging the upper band, hinting at buying pressurebuilding. If price sustains above the mid-band (96,100), the upside band at Rs 98,400 becomes the next is well above both the 8-day and 21-day EMAs, with the fast EMA (8) above the slow EMA (21), confirming a bullish crossover. These moving averages will act as dynamic support zones in case of a dip. Bulls remain in control as long as price holds above Rs 96,000.A bullish crossover has just occurred, and the histogram has turned positive after weeks of decline. This strongly supports a fresh upward momentum and aligns with bullish continuation if price holds above Rs 96, the fundamentals, the Russia-Ukraine War Escalation lends support to the yellow metal the uncertainty around tariffs remains which is expected to raise the haven appeal of gold.'Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, given ongoing uncertainty around global tariffs and internal US political instability. This contrast is supportive of gold as a hedge, though any Fed hawkishness may cap aggressive upside,' this analyst from the US will be a key indicator and this week remains macro-heavy, with multiple releases that could determine gold's next Chair Jerome Powell's speech with dovish tilt could fuel a rally, the LKP Securities analyst said, adding that stronger job data could cap upside due to fears of persistent Fed tightening. A weaker data could become a trigger for Rs 98,400 Indian rupee is expected to rise marginally on growing expectations of an RBI rate cut on June 6, which will be non supportive for MCX Gold. INR appreciation tends to decrease MCX gold prices even when COMEX gold is range-bound, Trivedi technical structure, combined with a favorable geopolitical and domestic currency environment, continues to favor a buy-on-dips strategy. As long as gold stays above Rs 96,000, bulls have the upper near Rs 96,400–96,600 zone for a target of Rs 97,500/Rs 98,400/ Rs 99,300 and a stop loss of Rs 94,000 on closing basis.A decisive move above Rs 97,500 with volume could trigger a bullish breakout toward Rs 99,300 in the coming week(s). Macro data and Powell's tone will act as key short-term catalysts.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Commodity Radar: Gold jumps Rs 1,700 on MCX amid Trump's fresh tariff threats. 5 technical signals to watch
Gold prices surged 2% or by Rs 1,740 on Monday following Donald Trump administration's threat of doubling steel import levies to 50%. The domestic prices took cues from the international prices which were up by $66 per troy ounce and trading around $3,355. Around 7 pm, the MCX June gold futures were trading at Rs 97,473, up by Rs 1,598 or 1.67% from the last closing price of Rs 95,875. The gold prices were up, gaining from a slip in the dollar index (DXY) which was hovering around 99 against a basket of six top currencies. It was down by 0.43 points or 0.43% at 98.90. It has declined by 0.21% over the past five trading sessions. 'Gold reacted positively as market priced in the re-rising geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine, following intensified cross-border retaliations,' Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said. Tech view "Gold August futures rebounded strongly from the Rs 96,100 zone and closed the week at Rs 97,196, showing bullish intent. Price is attempting a breakout from the recent consolidation range and now trades well above both short-term and medium-term averages," Trivedi said. 5 technical insights before making a trade: 1) Key levels The near-term support and last week's low is at 96,000 while a major swing support and psychological base is seen at Rs 94,000. Rs 92,200 is the trend-defining base and a breakdown below this invalidates bearish structure, Trivedi said. He sees immediate resistance at Rs 97,500 which was last week's high while the intermediate resistance lies near the upper bollinger band of Rs 98,400. "The bias remains positive as long as Rs 96,000 holds and a close above Rs 97,500 could push prices quickly toward Rs 98,400–Rs 99,300. 2) RSI (14): 57.49 – Bullish tilt with room to expand The RSI has rebounded from the 50-support level and currently rests near 59, suggesting a mild bullish bias. While the oscillator is not in overbought territory, it reflects a recovering trend. A break above Rs 96,700 could fuel further momentum toward overbought zones. On the contrary, a fall below Rs 95,200 may see the RSI dropping back toward neutral levels. The RSI has rebounded from previous lows and now stands at 57.5, pointing toward a rising bullish momentum. It is not yet in overbought territory, indicating that there's still room for upside. A sustained move above 60 will reinforce bullish continuation. 3) Bollinger Bands: Expanding, suggesting volatility resumption The bands are starting to widen, suggesting that volatility may be returning after a contraction phase in mid-May. The price is now hugging the upper band, hinting at buying pressure building. If price sustains above the mid-band (96,100), the upside band at Rs 98,400 becomes the next test. 4) Moving Averages – EMA 8 & EMA 21 suggest bullish cross confirmed EMA 8 (Yellow): Rs 96,640 EMA 21 (Red): Rs 96,000 Price is well above both the 8-day and 21-day EMAs, with the fast EMA (8) above the slow EMA (21), confirming a bullish crossover. These moving averages will act as dynamic support zones in case of a dip. Bulls remain in control as long as price holds above Rs 96,000. 5) MACD: A bullish crossover has just occurred, and the histogram has turned positive after weeks of decline. This strongly supports a fresh upward momentum and aligns with bullish continuation if price holds above Rs 96,000. Fundamentals On the fundamentals, the Russia-Ukraine War Escalation lends support to the yellow metal prices. Moreover, the uncertainty around tariffs remains which is expected to raise the haven appeal of gold. 'Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, given ongoing uncertainty around global tariffs and internal US political instability. This contrast is supportive of gold as a hedge, though any Fed hawkishness may cap aggressive upside,' this analyst said. Data from the US will be a key indicator and this week remains macro-heavy, with multiple releases that could determine gold's next move. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech with dovish tilt could fuel a rally, the LKP Securities analyst said, adding that stronger job data could cap upside due to fears of persistent Fed tightening. A weaker data could become a trigger for Rs 98,400 breakout. The Indian rupee is expected to rise marginally on growing expectations of an RBI rate cut on June 6, which will be non supportive for MCX Gold. INR appreciation tends to decrease MCX gold prices even when COMEX gold is range-bound, Trivedi said. Gold strategy: Buy-on-Dips The technical structure, combined with a favorable geopolitical and domestic currency environment, continues to favor a buy-on-dips strategy. As long as gold stays above Rs 96,000, bulls have the upper hand. Buy near Rs 96,400–96,600 zone for a target of Rs 97,500/Rs 98,400/ Rs 99,300 and a stop loss of Rs 94,000 on closing basis. A decisive move above Rs 97,500 with volume could trigger a bullish breakout toward Rs 99,300 in the coming week(s). Macro data and Powell's tone will act as key short-term catalysts.
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for May 30, 2025 - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction: The precious metal, which closed at ₹96500 levels, is likely to face immediate selling pressure as global cues turn negative. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold rate remains below its record peak, leaving investors uncertain about their trading decisions regarding the precious metal. Which price points should investors monitor? Here's the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities: MCX Gold June 2025 contract is expected to open with a significant gap down following weakness in COMEX gold overnight. The precious metal, which closed at ₹96500 levels, is likely to face immediate selling pressure as global cues turn negative. This presents a strategic opportunity for intraday traders to capitalize on any pullback rallies. Current Technical Setup Previous Close: ₹96500 Expected Opening Range: ₹96100-96200 (gap down of 300-400 points) Key Technical Levels: EMA 8: ₹96350 (now acting as immediate resistance) EMA 21: ₹96100 (potential support turned resistance) RSI: Expected to open below 40 (oversold bounce likely) MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed with negative histogram Bollinger Bands: Price likely to test middle band support Sell-on-Rise Strategy: 96350-96400 Zone Strategic Rationale: The 96350-96400 zone represents a confluence of critical resistance factors: 1. EMA 8 Resistance: The 8-day moving average at 96350 will act as dynamic resistance 2. Gap Fill Resistance: Markets often struggle to fill gaps completely on first attempt 3. Previous Support Turned Resistance: Yesterday's support levels become today's resistance 4. Psychological Level: Round number resistance at 96400 Entry Parameters: Primary Sell Zone: ₹96350-96400 Ideal Entry: ₹96375 (middle of the resistance zone) Stop Loss: ₹96550 (above previous day's high) Target 1: ₹96000 (psychological support) Target 2: ₹95800 (next significant support) Target 3: ₹95550 (extended target for swing traders) Execution Strategy: 1. Wait for Gap Opening: Allow the market to digest the gap down 2. Monitor Recovery Attempt: Look for pullback rally toward resistance zone 3. Entry Confirmation: Bearish reversal candlestick pattern (shooting star, doji, bearish engulfing) RSI showing negative divergence near 50-55 levels Volume declining on the recovery attempt 4. Risk Management: Trail stop loss to breakeven once Target 1 is achieved Market Sentiment Analysis The overnight weakness in COMEX gold reflects: Dollar Strength: DXY showing resilience above key levels Yield Pressure: 10-year Treasury yields rising, reducing gold's appeal Risk Appetite: Improving equity markets reducing safe-haven demand Technical Breakdown: Key support levels breached in international markets Risk Factors to Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Any sudden safe-haven demand Dollar Reversal: Unexpected USD weakness Economic Data: US economic releases affecting gold sentiment COMEX Recovery: Any sharp recovery in international gold prices Alternative Scenario If gold manages to close the gap and sustain above ₹96500, it would negate the bearish thesis. In such case, traders should: Exit short positions immediately Reassess the technical picture Wait for fresh setup Conclusion The expected gap down in MCX gold creates an ideal setup for sell-on-rise strategy. The 96350-96400 resistance zone offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for intraday traders. However, strict adherence to stop losses is crucial given the volatile nature of precious metals. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
23-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for May 23, 2025 - should you buy or sell?
Gold prices: A failure to reclaim ₹96000 decisively could trigger a deeper correction toward ₹94500-₹94800 support zone. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are set to record a weekly gain after fluctuating for the last few weeks. The gold rate is still off its all-time high and investors are wondering whether they should buy, sell or hold gold. What gold price levels should you watch out for? Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities explains: MCX Gold June 2025 contract is trading at ₹95600, positioned at a critical technical juncture after recent consolidation near resistance levels. The precious metal has shown signs of exhaustion near the ₹96000 zone, with technical indicators aligning for potential downside moves. Today presents two distinct selling opportunities for intraday traders. Gold: Current Technical Picture The gold market is displaying classic signs of distribution after failing to sustain above key resistance levels. Price action reveals a struggling bullish momentum with the metal unable to decisively break higher, creating an ideal setup for contrarian strategies. Key Technical Parameters: Current Price: ₹95600 EMA 8: ₹95550 EMA 21: ₹95650 RSI (14): 57.50 (neutral with downward bias) Bollinger Bands: Price consolidating near the middle band with upper band rejection Previous Day's Pivot: Key levels acting as resistance barriers Strategy 1: Sell on Rise Near ₹95800 Technical Rationale: The ₹95800 level represents a confluence of resistance factors including the upper Bollinger Band, previous day's pivot resistance, and psychological resistance. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Trade Bitcoin & Ethereum – No Wallet Needed! IC Markets Start Now Undo This zone has repeatedly rejected upward attempts, making it an attractive sell zone. Entry Parameters: Sell Zone: ₹95750-95850 Stop Loss: ₹96050 (above recent swing high) Target 1: ₹95400 (immediate support) Target 2: ₹95200 (key breakdown level) Target 3: ₹94950 (extended target for aggressive traders) Execution Guidelines: Wait for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (doji, shooting star, or bearish engulfing) Confirm with RSI showing negative divergence or failure to cross 60 Volume should be declining on up moves approaching the sell zone Trail stop loss to ₹95650 once Target 1 is achieved Strategy 2: Breakdown Below ₹95250 Technical Rationale: A decisive break below ₹95250 would confirm the failure of the recent consolidation and trigger a deeper correction. This level coincides with previous support and the lower boundary of the current trading range. Entry Parameters: Breakdown Level: ₹95250 Entry Price: ₹95200 (on decisive break) Stop Loss: ₹95450 (above breakdown level) Target 1: ₹94900 (immediate support) Target 2: ₹94650 (next significant support) Target 3: ₹94300 (major support zone) Execution Guidelines: Wait for 15-minute candle close below ₹95250 with increased volume RSI should preferably be below 50 for confirmation Avoid entry if breakdown occurs with extremely low volume Consider partial profit booking at each target level Gold Market Outlook Gold appears to be forming a potential reversal pattern after recent gains. The metal's inability to sustain above ₹96000 levels suggests underlying weakness. Key factors supporting the bearish bias include: 1. Technical Exhaustion: Multiple rejections at resistance levels 2. Moving Average Resistance: Price struggling near EMA 21 3. Volume Pattern: Declining volume on up moves indicates lack of conviction 4. Global Factors: Strengthening dollar and rising bond yields The precious metal faces a critical test at current levels. A failure to reclaim ₹96000 decisively could trigger a deeper correction toward ₹94500-₹94800 support zone. Risk Management Both strategies require strict adherence to stop losses given the volatile nature of precious metals. Traders should: Never risk more than 2% of capital per trade Use appropriate position sizing Monitor global cues including dollar index and bond yields Be prepared to exit if price action contradicts the analysis Market Catalysts to Watch US economic data releases Federal Reserve commentary Geopolitical developments Dollar index movements Global equity market sentiment Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
09-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for May 9, 2025
today: Where are gold prices headed? Should you buy gold or sell gold? What are the factors that will drive gold rates in the near future? Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities explains: Gold Market Overview Gold futures (MCX June 2025 contract) are currently trading in a consolidation phase after experiencing volatility in recent sessions. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now The precious metal has shown signs of weakness after testing higher levels, with current price action reflecting market indecision amid key technical levels. Gold Technical Landscape The technical picture reveals gold trading at ₹96307, having recently pulled back from higher levels. The recent price action has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute timeframe, suggesting short-term selling pressure. Key Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands: Price has retreated from the upper band and is now hovering near the middle band, indicating decreasing volatility Moving Averages: Currently above the EMA 8 (₹96200) below EMA 21 (₹96500), signaling mixed short-term sentiment RSI (14): Currently at 44.14, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but showing declining momentum MACD: Trading below the signal line with histogram showing negative values, suggesting bearish momentum is building Pivot Points: Previous day's pivot levels show immediate resistance at ₹96765 and support at ₹95833 Gold Intraday Trading Strategy Bullish Scenario: BUY Setup Entry Point: Above ₹96500 (break of immediate resistance) Target 1: ₹96850 Target 2: ₹97100 (coinciding with previous day's pivot resistance) Stop Loss: ₹96000 Trigger Conditions: Price moving above EMA 8, RSI crossing above 50, and MACD showing positive divergence Bearish Scenario: SELL Setup Entry Point: Below ₹96100 (break of immediate support) Target 1: ₹95900 Target 2: ₹95700 (near previous day's lower support level) Stop Loss: ₹96300 Trigger Conditions: Price sustaining below EMA 21, RSI failing to cross 50, and MACD continuing its downward trajectory Market Outlook Gold appears to be in a consolidation phase with slightly bearish undertones in the immediate term. The precious metal is likely to find strong support around the ₹95800-95900 zone, which could attract value buyers. However, sustained trading below this zone could trigger further selling pressure. For upside momentum to establish, gold needs to convincingly break above the ₹96500 level, which coincides with the EMA 21. Traders should watch for global cues, particularly US dollar movements and geopolitical developments, which could influence price action during the day. Risk Factors Upcoming economic data releases Unexpected central bank commentary Significant dollar index fluctuations Changes in global risk sentiment especially rupee effect due to border tensions. Note from LKP Securities: All technical levels are based on the MCX Gold June 2025 contract as of May 9, 2025. Traders are advised to use appropriate risk management strategies. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
