Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for August 1, 2025; why a 'sell on rise' strategy makes sense?
Gold price prediction today: Gold rates continue to hover in a range as news on Donald Trump's trade policies flows in. Where are gold prices headed and what should investors do?
Here's the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities:
Gold futures remain under pressure as the MCX Gold October Futures contract struggles to recover from recent declines.
After a brief pullback from the intraday lows, prices are currently hovering around ₹98,778, with key technical indicators pointing to a weak rebound lacking bullish momentum.
In light of the current setup, traders are advised to adopt a Sell on Rise strategy near ₹99,000, with a stop-loss at ₹99,450.
Technical Setup Overview:
EMA Resistance Cluster:
The 8-period EMA is at ₹98,765, and the 21-period EMA is at ₹98,800. Price is trying to reclaim these levels but is struggling to close decisively above either, indicating hesitation and overhead resistance.
A failure to sustain above ₹99,000 would confirm bearish control.
Bearish Price Structure:
A clear lower-high lower-low formation dominates the 15-minute chart. The attempt to bounce back from the ₹98,600–₹98,700 zone is facing headwinds from the declining short-term moving averages. Selling interest is visible on every upward tick.
Volume and Open Interest:
Despite a modest bounce, volume remains uneven and not supportive of a bullish reversal. Open interest trends also suggest caution, with no aggressive long buildup detected.
This favors the view of a corrective pullback rather than a trend change.
Pivot Point & Supply Zone:
The previous day's pivot and price action suggest that the ₹99,000–₹99,200 range remains a critical resistance zone. The multiple failed attempts to hold above this level make it an ideal sell zone for intraday setups.
Momentum Indicators – RSI & MACD:
• The RSI is approaching the 50–52 zone but has not broken above convincingly, implying weak upside momentum.
• While the MACD is not visible in the chart, the price structure suggests a shallow or weak crossover at best, lacking strength to confirm bullish continuation.
Conclusion:
Given the confluence of resistance around ₹99,000, lack of follow-through volume, and weak momentum, traders may consider a Sell on Rise strategy in the range of ₹99,000–₹99,100, maintaining a stop-loss at ₹99,450. Downside targets include ₹98,550, followed by ₹98,200 if selling intensifies. Until the price decisively breaks and sustains above the 21 EMA with supportive volume, the trend remains vulnerable to further declines.
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