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an hour ago
- Politics
Wedding Woes: The Real Crisis Facing the Imperial Household
For decades, ensuring a stable succession to the throne has been one of the most stubborn challenges facing the Japanese political system, with the law allowing only males born to a father from the imperial lineage to succeed, and only one male child—Prince Hisahito, who arrived in 2006—being born into the family since the birth of his father, Crown Prince Fumihito, in 1965. The only child of the current emperor and empress is Princess Aiko, now 23. As a woman, she is not eligible to take the throne. Following lengthy talks between the ruling and opposition parties, it was hoped that the leadership of both chambers of the Diet could get a proposal for reforming the Imperial House Law through the regular session that ended in late June 2025. But these talks broke down, and the prospects for a short-term resolution of the issue have receded. The main points of the proposals have been twofold: first, to allow female members of the family to retain their royal status after marriage, and second, to adopt male descendants in the male lineage of former branches of the imperial line back into the family to increase the number of male heirs. By the end of May, the two leaders of the discussions—Asō Tarō, senior advisor to the Liberal Democrat Party, and Noda Yoshihiko, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party—had agreed to shelve the second proposal because of constitutional concerns and widespread public disagreement, and decided to prioritize the idea of allowing female members of the family to retain their status after marriage. Even on this proposal, however, the two men differed on a number of key issues, including whether retaining royal status should be optional or automatic, and whether the woman's husband and children should also be granted royal status. Nevertheless, they agreed to push forward in the hope of making at least some progress on an issue that has remained stagnant for years. Then, at the start of June, progress ground to a halt when Asō suddenly announced that he couldn't agree to shelving the second proposal after all. He remained wedded to the idea of bringing back descendants of former royals to the imperial family. Noda responded by accusing his counterpart of overturning the negotiating table and undoing all the progress they had made. Nukaga Fukushirō, speaker of the House of Representatives, has declared that he hopes to reach an agreement during the extraordinary Diet session in the fall, but frankly this seems unlikely. Having followed the political debate over the imperial succession for the past 20 years, I believe that the real position of the LDP, swayed by the staunch convictions of party conservatives who are insistent on male succession, is to do nothing. From their point of view, the current Imperial House Law, which clearly enshrines the principle of patrilineal male succession, represents the best possible arrangement, and there is no need for any change. But if the ruling party continues to insist on male-line succession, it is quite likely that the imperial house will dwindle into extinction. The number of imperial family members is already clearly in serious decline. Public opinion surveys consistently show high levels of support for a female emperor. The LDP knows that it can't simply do nothing. To give itself political cover, it goes through the motions of assembling expert panels and holding discussions with the opposition, only to end up by grumbling at the results, derailing the talks, and postponing a decision until some unspecified time in the future. Although it frequently raises the possibility of reinstating male descendants of former branches of the imperial family, it has not carried out any meaningful studies on how this might work, or shown any other evidence of genuine enthusiasm for the idea, almost certainly because it has no intention of actually seeing the plan through. This doesn't mean that they are prepared to simply sit and wait for the imperial house to go extinct through natural decline. My guess is that deep down, most of them feel that the issue is not their responsibility. They are happy to let the politicians of the future deal with it when the situation gets really serious. For anyone genuinely concerned about the future of the imperial family, it is a dispiriting situation. The samurai and painter Watanabe Kazan (1793–1841) once said: 'Don't get so caught up in short-term maneuverings that you forget to plan for a hundred years in the future.' Unfortunately, few of our politicians today have the wisdom to heed this advice. Prince Mikasa's Prescient Warning Realistically, however, what would have happened even if this latest series of talks had led to an agreement to revise the Imperial House Law to allow women to succeed in the future? I don't think it would have done much to change the reality of the crisis facing the imperial succession. Why? Because the biggest problem is not really whether the person who succeeds is male or female, but whether that person is able to marry. The real crisis is that members of the imperial family—of both sexes—struggle to find suitable spouses. Japan's total fertility rate, as published by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare in June 2024, was just 1.15, the lowest ever. Research suggests that 80% of the decline in births is due to people not getting married. As well as economic factors, changing views of marriage and the family also play a role. Around 1990, the proportion of people who remained unmarried throughout their lives was around 5% for both men and women. In a survey in 2020, this had risen to around 30% for men and around 20% for women. Until the war, the extended imperial family and aristocracy provided a ready supply of potential marriage partners. Today, the imperial family has to seek partners from the general population. It is therefore unavoidable that the 'marriage ice age' will affect its members just as much as anyone else. One of the first to warn about the coming lack of marriage partners was the late Takahito, Prince Mikasa, one of the elder statemen of the imperial family. Appearing on a radio program in 2004 to mark his eighty-eighth birthday, Prince Mikasa spoke about the hardships endured by his mother, Empress Teimei, when she entered the imperial family and had to adapt to palace customs and protocols. He warned that, with the modern mass media stirring up such a fuss about the imperial family, most ordinary people would shrink from taking on such a role in the future. He foresaw that things were only likely to get worse. 'For a person from ordinary society to marry into the imperial family is an extremely difficult thing. In the United Kingdom, a nation somewhat similar to ours in terms of having a royal system, in the case of Queen Elizabeth, they were able to look for suitable candidates from the royal families and nobility. But Japan's old aristocracy was scrapped after the war. Looking back on it now, this was a move undertaken on the fringes of efforts to reform Japan's emperor system. As a result, though, even if we allow female emperors, the problem is that it might be difficult to find anyone willing to marry them in modern Japan.' Prince Mikasa was in favor of a female tennō , saying that 'obviously it would be no problem to have an empress,' but he had his doubts about how successful the system would be. 'As a practical issue, how would it work? There wouldn't be much point in allowing women to take the throne if the system petered out after just one empress. I think this is the major problem,' he said, predicting that a shortage of marriage partners would soon become the biggest challenge facing the imperial family. There has been an increase in public discourse around the possibility of a female emperor in recent years, partly driven by the rising popularity of Princess Aiko, the only child of the current emperor and empress. Many people now openly support the idea of changing the law to allow Aiko to succeed her father one day. Perhaps conscious of this, many Diet members, people particularly in the opposition parties, have taken to hedging their bets by claiming that although they support the idea of an empress regnant, they remain opposed to the idea of a female line of descent. It seems likely that this fudge is designed to avoid accusations of gender discrimination. This position is one that would be welcomed by most of those who insist on maintaining male-line descent. Under this scheme, although Princess Aiko would be allowed to take the throne as an empress regnant, any children she had with a commoner husband would be barred from inheriting the throne. This kind of 'cul-de-sac' empress would therefore bring about no real change to the principle of descent through the male line. Making the Palace a More Human Environment But the people who advocate this position do not seem to realize that it would involve ignoring the human rights of imperial successors and their spouses, and that this would only make the constricted path of succession even narrower than it already is. If children born to an empress regnant are not allowed to inherit the throne, how will she, her husband, and their children understand the meaning of their roles? Perhaps some of these people should ask themselves how they would feel in the same situation. The issue is equally serious for both men and women, but the challenges are likely to be especially acute in the case of men who marry an empress regnant or other female royal, given that there is no precedent for male commoners to marry into the imperial family. A look at the situation in other countries gives us an idea of what might happen. In the Netherlands, before the present king took the throne, there were three successive queens. Prince Claus, the husband of Queen Beatrix, suffered from depression. Prince Bernhard, the consort of her predecessor, Queen Juliana, was embroiled in a scandal when it was revealed that he had accepted bribes during the Lockheed affair. I don't mean to suggest that because of all these potential difficulties we should simply give up on the idea of an empress regnant as too difficult. However, in a society like Japan's, where for generations women have been confined to the role of housewife, we need to think more carefully about what it might mean for men to marry into the imperial family as consorts to a reigning empress or other female royals. Likely challenges would include lingering ties from a man's previous life and career, along with deeper existential concerns about his place and purpose. The position of Masako, herself a diplomat and career woman before she married into the family, may offer an idea of the kind of difficulties that male consorts might face in the future. She suffered well-documented mental health issues and, as the law currently stands, her only child is barred from taking the throne. To repeat: the shortage of suitable spouses is a problem for men and women alike. In addition to the concerns raised by Prince Mikasa about media attention, the situation today is made even worse by the rise of online information and social media. The weekly magazines may brazenly mix fact and fiction in their reporting, but I still believe that as part of the long history of print journalism, they retain at least a minimal sense of moral standards. Social media, by contrast, is a different beast—a space where no one takes responsibility for what is true and false. Anonymous users broadcast their views to huge audiences in a largely unsupervised space where there is no one to draw the line, no sense of responsibility, and little sign of moral scruples. Unlike ordinary citizens, members of the imperial family do not reply to criticisms and do not file lawsuits for defamation. Some people even seem to take a perverse pleasure in attacking the institution of the imperial family precisely because it cannot defend itself. We have all seen attacks in the media and online directed at Empress Michiko, Empress Masako, and Prince Akishino and his family following Princess Mako's engagement to Komuro Kei. How many people would not shrink back in fear when they imagined themselves, a relative, or a close friend, marrying into the imperial household? Perhaps we have been indifferent for too long to the obvious fact that the imperial family are human beings. And perhaps this indifference is now circling around to bring a crisis that threatens the very survival of the emperor as the symbol of national unity. If we want to see the symbolic role of the emperor continue, we must take urgent steps to transform the imperial household into a place that feels more human—one that ordinary people can enter without fearing for their happiness and mental health. If we continue to impose systems, environments, and burdens of obedience that would be intolerable to most people, we will only accelerate the demise of our long-lived imperial line. (Originally published in Japanese. Banner photos: Prince Hisahito, at left, the only son of the Akishino family, and Princess Aiko, the only daughter of Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako. © Jiji.)
Japan Times
7 hours ago
- Politics
- Japan Times
CDP shows ‘modest' outcome as Noda struggles to unite the opposition camp
As the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) went into Sunday's Upper House poll with hopes of greatly adding to its preelection total of 38 seats in the 248 seat chamber. But it came out of the election with the exact same number. The party won 22 seats, including 15 district and and seven proportional representation seats, in sharp contrast to populist opposition parties — the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Sanseito — that significantly boosted their totals. With another 16 CDP Upper House seats not up for election this time, the party now has 38 seats in the chamber. The failure to expand its parliamentary strength could hurt the CDP's attempts to convince smaller opposition parties that it has significant popularity behind it to create an all-opposition coalition that could take power.
The Sun
9 hours ago
- Business
- The Sun
Japan PM Ishiba vows to stay despite election loss, tariff talks loom
TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay in power despite a crushing defeat in upper house elections, with opposition parties considering a no-confidence motion and internal dissent growing within his ruling coalition. Speaking at a press conference, Ishiba emphasized his commitment to addressing urgent economic challenges, including rising consumer prices and looming US tariffs set to take effect on August 1. 'I will stay in office and do everything in my power to chart a path toward resolving these challenges,' he said. Analysts, however, suggest his leadership is increasingly precarious. The ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house, securing only 47 seats—short of the 50 needed—while opposition parties advocating tax cuts and stricter immigration policies gained ground. 'The political situation has become fluid and could lead to a leadership change or the reshuffling of the coalition in coming months,' said Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan economist at Oxford Economics. Investors worry that Ishiba's weakened position may force concessions to opposition demands for tax cuts and welfare spending, despite Japan's status as the world's most indebted nation. The prime minister dismissed calls to expand his coalition but pledged to engage with opposition parties on inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the far-right Sanseito party made significant gains, securing 14 additional seats. The party, which gained traction through anti-immigration rhetoric and conspiracy theories, signals a potential shift toward populism in Japanese politics. Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ) hinted at a no-confidence motion, citing a lack of public trust in Ishiba's government. Senior members of Ishiba's own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have also questioned his leadership, with former PM Taro Aso reportedly opposing his continuation. As Japan's chief tariff negotiator heads to Washington for talks, the political and economic uncertainty deepens. - Reuters
Japan Times
a day ago
- Politics
- Japan Times
Performative ‘elections' expose a sad lack of vision
Under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership offered the Japanese people and the region the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision (FOIP), Abenomics to revive the nation's economy after nearly three decades of stagnation and 'proactive pacifism' as guiding ideas for Japanese citizens. While not completely successful in realizing these visions, they offer a stark contrast to Japan's Upper House elections. These performative 'elections' have again exposed a troubling void at the heart of the island nation's political culture: the absence of any compelling strategic vision for the country's future. While political parties jostle for position and trade barbs over peripheral issues, none have articulated a coherent blueprint for addressing Japan's serious and mounting structural challenges. This vacuum of imagination reflects not merely political timidity but a deeper cultural reluctance to embrace bold leadership, a tendency encapsulated in the Japanese proverb 'the nail that sticks up gets hammered down.' The policy platforms on display during the campaign were notable primarily for their smallness of ambition. The LDP recycled familiar promises about economic revitalization and security enhancements, offering incremental adjustments rather than transformative solutions. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan countered with equally uninspiring proposals for modest wage increases and tweaks to social programs. Even newer entrants like Reiwa Shinsengumi and Nippon Ishin no Kai failed to break free from this pattern of cautious incrementalism. What makes this lack of vision more concerning is the magnitude of challenges Japan faces. The nation confronts a demographic crisis, with a rapidly aging society and plummeting birthrate threatening economic vitality and social cohesion. Gender inequality remains entrenched, depriving the economy of talent and perpetuating outdated social structures. The employment system struggles to adapt to a dynamic global economy. Educational institutions remain rigid, hierarchical and are ill-equipped to foster the creativity and flexibility demanded by the 21st century. Rather than grappling seriously with these existential challenges with a concrete vision, political discourse has increasingly fixated on the comparatively minor issue of immigration. Parties across the spectrum have devoted outsized attention to illegal migrants, migrant crime and border control measures despite scant evidence that foreign nationals pose any significant threat to Japanese society. Foreign residents constitute less than 3% of Japan's population and crime rates among immigrants remain lower than those of the general population. This misdirection of political energy reveals both the poverty of strategic thinking and a troubling susceptibility to populist scapegoating. The rise of parties like Sanseito, which has gained traction with its populist, right-of-center platform, reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with establishment politics. Yet this phenomenon represents less a coherent alternative vision than a protest vote against the status quo. Like similar movements in Europe and the Americas, Sanseito channels frustration without offering substantive solutions. Its popularity signals not the emergence of new ideas but the bankruptcy of old ones. This political paralysis stems partly from institutional factors such as the factional nature of Japanese politics, the power of bureaucracy and the influence of special interests. But it also reflects deeper cultural dynamics. Japanese society has long valued consensus over conflict, harmony over disruption and collective cohesion over individual initiative. These values have many virtues, contributing to social stability and group solidarity. Yet they also create powerful disincentives for the kind of bold, visionary leadership required to navigate transformational change. The contrast with other major powers is instructive. Whatever one thinks of U.S. President Donald Trump's 'Make America Great Again' vision or Chinese leader Xi Jinping's 'China Dream,' these leaders have articulated clear, compelling narratives about their nations' destiny. Their visions may be flawed, divisive and unrealistic, but they provide a sense of direction and purpose that mobilizes political energy and shapes public discourse. Japanese politics offers no equivalent. There has been no overarching narrative about where the country should go or what it should become since Abe. This absence of vision has concrete consequences. Without a clear strategic direction, policy responses remain reactive and piecemeal. Demographic decline proceeds unchecked because no party dares propose the radical reforms to immigration policy, gender relations or work culture that are necessary to reverse it. Economic stagnation persists because structural reforms threaten entrenched interests. Educational ossification continues because innovation requires challenging established hierarchies. The irony is that Japan possesses tremendous assets that could underpin a compelling national vision. Its technological prowess, cultural creativity, social cohesion and democratic institutions provide a strong foundation for renewal. A political leader willing to articulate how these strengths could be mobilized to address contemporary challenges might find a receptive audience among voters hungry for change. Such a vision need not mimic the nationalist populism of Trump or the authoritarian ambitions of Xi. As Phillip Lipscy of the University of Toronto alludes to in his essay "Japan: the harbinger state," Japan could chart its own course, offering a model of inclusive prosperity, sustainable development and creative adaptation to demographic change. It could position itself as a laboratory for solutions to challenges such as aging societies, work-life balance and technological disruption that other developed nations will soon face. It could leverage its cultural soft power and technological capabilities to shape global conversations about the future of human society. Developing such a vision requires political courage and the willingness to stick out, that is, to risk being hammered down. It demands leaders who prioritize long-term national interests over short-term political calculations. It necessitates a political culture that rewards innovation rather than punishing it and one that values bold thinking alongside careful consensus-building. The alternative is continued drift and a slow-motion crisis. Japan's challenges will not resolve themselves through incremental adjustments or wishful thinking. Where is the spirit and vision of the Meiji restorers, those who rebuilt Japan from the ashes of war after World War II or Abe and his team, who offered FOIP, Abenomics and the leadership that drove Japan to lead the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership? A compelling vision with concrete and achievable objectives would contribute not only to Japan's sustainable prosperity but also to its global influence. In an era when nationalist and authoritarian visions are ascendant worldwide, Japan could offer an alternative model, one that combines economic dynamism with social cohesion, technological innovation with cultural continuity, global engagement with national identity. The nail that sticks up may get hammered down, but the alternative is a political culture of timid conformity that guarantees only decline. Japan needs leaders willing to take that risk, to articulate bold visions and pursue transformative change. Until such leaders emerge, its enormous potential will be unrealized and its future increasingly uncertain. Stephen R. Nagy is a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo and concurrently a visiting fellow for the Hungarian Institute for International Affairs and the Japan Institute for International Affairs.
Japan Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Japan Times
Sanseito third-most popular party in Upper House race: poll
Rising political party Sanseito is the third-most popular pick among voters ahead of Sunday's election for the Upper House, a Jiji Press opinion poll for July showed Thursday. The survey found that 6.9% of respondents plan to vote for Sanseito in the Upper House's proportional representation bloc, up 3.4 percentage points from June and improving its ranking among political parties from sixth place. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party remained the front-runner at 20.9%, albeit down 3.6 points. In second place was the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, up 0.8 points at 9.1%, while the Democratic Party for the People was fourth at 6.1%, up 0.1 points. Komeito, the LDP's coalition partner, came next at 4.9%, up 0.9 points, followed by Reiwa Shinsengumi at 3.6%, up 0.5 points, Nippon Ishin no Kai at 2.7%, down 1.7 points. The Conservative Party of Japan logged 2.3%, up 1.6 points, the Japanese Communist Party 1.9%, down 0.3 points, and the Social Democratic Party 0.9%, up 0.4 points. The proportion of respondents who favor no particular party came to 38.2%. By age group, those under 30 backed the DPP most at 13.4%, followed by Sanseito at 12.5% and the LDP at 10.7%. All older generations favored the LDP most. The proportion of respondents who want to see the LDP and Komeito retain their majority in the Upper House in Sunday's election came to 31.1%, less than the 42.5% who hope to see the opposition bloc take the majority. Meanwhile, 36.1% said they hope that the ruling bloc will comprise the LDP, Komeito and one or more of the opposition parties after the Upper House poll, while 24.7% hope for a government led by the opposition and 18.6% want a government comprising just the LDP and Komeito. As measures to tackle inflation, 67.4% preferred consumption tax cuts over cash handouts, against 21.5% saying the opposite. A total of 22.8% said that information on social media is important in deciding whom to cast their votes for, while 64.8% said that it is not important and 12.4% said neither or that they do not know. As for Ishiba's Cabinet, the public approval rating dropped 6.2 percentage points from the previous month to 20.8% in July, its lowest ever level. The disapproval rating jumped 6.6 points to 55.0%, the highest since Ishiba took office last October. The support rate fell below the previous low of 20.9% marked in May. Approval had picked up to 27.0% in June, apparently due to the appointment of Shinjiro Koizumi, son of popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, as agriculture minister, before falling again. The interview survey, conducted over the four days through Monday, covered 2,000 people aged 18 and over in Japan. Valid responses came from 59% of people.
