Latest news with #CoreyKlujsza
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
RXO Q2 2025 truckload market forecast: Inflation continues but at slower pace
RXO recently released its Q2 Truckload Market Forecast, which found that despite economic turmoil, the U.S. truckload space remained relatively calm according to shippers' KPIs. RXO's Curve forecast reported a 9.1% year-over-year increase in spot rates, a slight drop from the 11.6% growth in Q4 2024. Notably, contract rates grew for the first time since late 2022. FreightWaves' Todd Maiden writes, 'A trend – largely in place since 2023 – of soft freight demand, reductions in carrier capacity and stable rates continued in the first quarter.' 'We're as close to equilibrium, in terms of carrier supply and shipper demand, as we've been in over two years,' the update said. 'Relatively speaking, the capacity situation is much more fragile than at this time last year. With a continued difficult landscape for carriers, and (in many cases) decreasing 2025 contract rates setting in, it could set the stage for volatility later in 2025.' Shippers enjoyed a favorable environment in Q1 with high tender acceptance rates and accessible capacity, despite carriers' grappling with higher costs. According to Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO, the market remained stable throughout the quarter, in line with seasonal expectations. An important Q1 development was the year-over-year growth in contract rates, marking a 1.4% rise from Q1 2024. Typically lagging behind spot rates, these contract rates have finally been lifted out of deflation. RXO analysts argue that the recent drop in inflation does not herald the market's peak. Historical patterns show temporary deviations in market cycles, and typical seasonal trends usually lead to rate retreats post-holidays. Additionally, with operating costs 34% higher than in 2014, significant rate drops remain unlikely. Macroeconomic factors also played a role, with U.S. GDP contracting for the first time since Q1 2022, coupled with trade policy-induced volatility. Import volumes spiked 14.5% in Q1, as shippers preempted new tariffs, but they have begun to decline in Q2. Looking ahead, Q2 is expected to bring typical seasonal volatility due to produce season and Memorial Day influences. However, significant rate increases remain unlikely without sustained higher demand. Supply constraints, particularly from carrier attrition, could cause future inflation. The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday to repeal a waiver granted to California by the Biden administration that required a large part of the trucking industry to achieve zero-carbon emissions by 2035. FreightWaves' John Gallagher writes: 'The nullifications of California's Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) and Low NOx Omnibus rules, accomplished through two Congressional Review Act resolutions, have already been adopted by the House of Representatives. They head to the White House where they are expected to be signed by President Donald Trump.' For the American Trucking Associations, it was a big win. The ATA had argued in a letter to Congress in April that if the California ACT regulation were allowed to move forward, 'Beginning with the 2024 model year, the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulation mandates that manufacturers progressively increase zero emission vehicle (ZEV) sales, aiming for 55% of Class 2b-3 vehicle sales, 75% of Class 4-8 vehicle sales, and 40% of Class 7-8 tractor sales to be ZEVs by the 2035 model year.' In a rare moment of agreement, the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association lauded the move, saying, 'For OOIDA members, vehicle reliability and affordability are critical. It's no wonder small-business truckers have left the state in droves to find better opportunities elsewhere.' This comes as some states are opting for a low-CARB diet, according to a recent article from Fleet Owner. Several states that originally voted to adopt California's Advanced Clean Trucks EV sales mandate are now rolling back or pushing out the enforcement dates. CARB is the environmental regulator California Air Resources Board. Fleet Owner reports Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and Oregon pushed back their compliance timelines for ACT by a year or more. For model year 2025, New Jersey, New York and Washington are on track while Colorado, New Mexico and Rhode Island begin enforcement for model year 2027. The post RXO Q2 2025 truckload market forecast: Inflation continues but at slower pace appeared first on FreightWaves.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
RXO Releases the Latest Curve Freight Market Forecast
In the first quarter, while truckload spot rates continued to rise year-over-year, the growth rate eased from the fourth quarter of 2024 Spot rates, in both year-over-year and absolute terms, will likely continue to be inflationary CHARLOTTE, N.C., May 22, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, RXO (NYSE: RXO), a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast. The Q2 Curve update, which recaps first-quarter performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market, and provides a second-quarter freight market forecast, indicates a sustained year-over-year increase in truckload rates in the first quarter. However, the rate of this growth decelerated when compared to the fourth quarter. Highlights from the report include: Spot rates increased 9.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, slightly less than the 11.6% reading in the fourth quarter of 2024. After initial volatility in January from post-holiday shipping and weather events, truckload capacity and spot rates receded to their pre-peak season baseline. Looking ahead, typical summer shipping trends should drive some incremental spot market volatility in the second quarter. "The market calmed throughout the first quarter, which we expected given typical seasonality," said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. "The real question is, will we see sustained momentum when it comes to rate increases as we get deeper into the busier summer shipping season? Regardless, carriers are under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, and though freight demand may not spike, there is still potential for a tighter capacity environment later in the year." Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said, "Shippers have had to contend with a tremendous amount of uncertainty throughout the first quarter and into the second. They're employing many different strategies in response. They're also deciding whether to increase inventory and whether there will be enough demand to warrant that inventory build-up. While we're operating in a very fluid and uncertain environment, de-escalating trade tensions provide shippers with an opportunity to strategically increase inventory and plan for the second half of the year." To read the full second-quarter Curve report, visit The Curve exemplifies RXO's commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market. About RXO RXO (NYSE: RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across North America. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. Visit for more information and connect with RXO on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and YouTube. View source version on Contacts Media Contact Nina Investor Contact Kevin Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Wire
22-05-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
RXO Releases the Latest Curve Freight Market Forecast
CHARLOTTE, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, RXO (NYSE: RXO), a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast. The Q2 Curve update, which recaps first-quarter performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market, and provides a second-quarter freight market forecast, indicates a sustained year-over-year increase in truckload rates in the first quarter. However, the rate of this growth decelerated when compared to the fourth quarter. Highlights from the report include: Spot rates increased 9.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, slightly less than the 11.6% reading in the fourth quarter of 2024. After initial volatility in January from post-holiday shipping and weather events, truckload capacity and spot rates receded to their pre-peak season baseline. Looking ahead, typical summer shipping trends should drive some incremental spot market volatility in the second quarter. 'The market calmed throughout the first quarter, which we expected given typical seasonality,' said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. 'The real question is, will we see sustained momentum when it comes to rate increases as we get deeper into the busier summer shipping season? Regardless, carriers are under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, and though freight demand may not spike, there is still potential for a tighter capacity environment later in the year.' Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said, 'Shippers have had to contend with a tremendous amount of uncertainty throughout the first quarter and into the second. They're employing many different strategies in response. They're also deciding whether to increase inventory and whether there will be enough demand to warrant that inventory build-up. While we're operating in a very fluid and uncertain environment, de-escalating trade tensions provide shippers with an opportunity to strategically increase inventory and plan for the second half of the year.' To read the full second-quarter Curve report, visit The Curve exemplifies RXO's commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market. About RXO RXO (NYSE: RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across North America. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. Visit for more information and connect with RXO on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and YouTube.
Yahoo
01-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
RXO Q1 forecast: 2025 upswing will feel more like 2014 than 2021
RXO recently released its Q1 2025 Truckload Market Forecast, with its Curve Index showing a continuation of rate inflation first observed in Q4 2024. The Curve, formerly the Coyote Curve, is a proprietary index measuring year-over-year changes in truckload linehaul spot rates, excluding fuel. The forecast highlighted how rising spot rates and capacity exiting the market are driving the upswing, though the authors caution that the extreme conditions of the last inflationary market in 2020 and 2021 are not expected. While shippers may not feel dramatic changes yet, RXO warns that conditions are shifting in ways that could lead to tightening later this year. The Q4 2024 Curve Index showed spot rates up 11.6% year over year, a jump from the 5.8% increase in Q3. This rise was driven by continued carrier exits, impacts from hurricanes Helene and Milton, and typical holiday shipping seasonality. Contract rates, while still showing a slight year-over-year decline of 1.5% in Q4, moderated from the 3.4% y/y drop seen in Q3. This aligns with typical market behavior, as contract rates tend to lag spot rates by two to three quarters. 'Over the holidays, we saw market rate and coverage KPIs reach levels we haven't hit since Christmas 2022. While we have seen some of those gains moderate through the first quarter to date, the baseline has reset higher,' said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. 'Though the rest of 2025 may not look like the peak in the COVID-era truckload market, we're seeing continued signs that we're past the bottom of the cycle.' Read the full article here. The trucking industry may see an unexpected boost later this year as inflation reshapes consumer spending habits, according to Bob Costello, chief economist of the American Trucking Associations. Costello spoke at the 2025 Recruitment & Retention Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, Transport Topics reported, on how current economic trends could influence freight demand. He says that as consumers face sticker shock from inflated costs of flights and accommodations, they might redirect their spending. 'They might start buying goods again, and that could help trucking,' he added. However, Costello cautioned against overreliance on GDP growth as an indicator of trucking prosperity. 'About 70% of what is embedded in GDP are services, and you are not putting services in a trailer,' he pointed out. On the housing front, Costello painted a mixed picture. While demand for housing remains strong, high interest rates have sidelined many potential buyers, impacting dry van and flatbed carriers that haul residential construction supplies. 'If your company hauls residential construction supplies, it's been tough,' he acknowledged. Adding complexity, Costello noted concerns about the availability of construction labor, partly due to recent immigration policies. In contrast, nonresidential construction has shown promise. 'This is on the rise — it's been quite good,' he said, pointing to infrastructure projects and semiconductor plant construction as bright spots for trucking demand. Costello forecasts modest growth in trucking demand for the year. However, he warns of a potential shakeout in capacity as companies that expanded during the pandemic boom times reassess operations. 'I think people got ahead of themselves and thought the recovery was coming sooner, and it wasn't. … 'Fleets are saying this is the worst downturn they can remember.' ACT Research recently released its seasonally adjusted final January Class 8 order numbers, which showed still-healthy tractor orders despite lower year-over-year comps. Vocational truck demand was also strong. Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, wrote, 'Tractor orders totaled 18.4k units, down 11% y/y. It remains to be seen whether the decrease in orders this month will continue or was just a reversion after November and December highs. One month does not make a trend.' According to FTR Transportation Intelligence, preliminary North American Class 8 net orders in January totaled 24,000 units, representing a 28% decrease month over month and a 15% drop year over year. This figure fell short of the seven-year January average of 27,950 net orders. FTR notes the on-highway segment primarily drove the softening in order activity, while vocational orders remained relatively stable. Despite the January dip, cumulative net orders from September 2024 through January 2025 for builds in 2025 still show a 3% increase from the previous year. Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR, said, 'A 25% U.S. tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico – currently paused for trade negotiations through early March – and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as of February 4 could significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks and parts if fully implemented and enforced indefinitely.' Another challenge is the potential tariff impacts on the interconnected Class 8 OEM truck makers' supply chains. Moyer added, 'With roughly 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks built in Mexico and around 65% of Canada's Class 8 trucks built in the U.S., tariffs and likely counter-tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and drive up vehicle prices.' Summary: Despite ongoing deterioration in the dry van space, spot market and outbound tender rejection rates are outperforming compared to seasonal year-over-year comps. The past week saw the SONAR National Truckload Index 7-Day average rise 2 cents per mile all-in from $2.28 on Feb. 17 to $2.30. Spot rates are down 13 cents per mile m/m from $2.43 on Jan. 25, but when compared to last year, NTI is up 7 cents per mile from $2.23. Spot market linehaul rates saw a smaller increase, up from $1.72 to $1.73 per mile w/w. Fuel costs are based on the average retail price of diesel fuel and fuel efficiency of 6.5 miles per gallon. The formula is NTID – ( Linehaul rates saw a similar decline compared to all-in spot rates, with the NTIL down 13 cents per mile m/m from $1.86 and 13 cents per mile higher y/y from $1.60. Dry van outbound tender rejection rates posted a slight decline, down 15 basis points w/w from 5.18% on Feb. 17 to 5.03%. VOTRI is down 150 bps m/m but 86 bps higher y/y. A challenge for dry van carriers is that despite the higher outbound tender rejection rates on y/y comps, outbound tender volumes are low. ATRI Invites Motor Carriers to Participate in 2025 Operational Costs Data Collection (ATRI) Low pay keeping millions of Americans out of trucking, survey suggests (Land Line) Trump's Threat to EV Trucking Rules Undermines Big-Rig Bets (Bloomberg) Truckstop exec joins Trucking Parking Club to boost ties with enterprise fleets (FreightWaves) BMO's numbers on trucking credit suggest worst may be over (FreightWaves)Werner pilots sideview cameras for safety, legal protection (Trucking Dive) The post RXO Q1 forecast: 2025 upswing will feel more like 2014 than 2021 appeared first on FreightWaves.
Yahoo
26-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Q1 forecast: Truckload rates likely to rise but not skyrocket
On Monday, RXO recently released its Q1 2025 Truckload Market Forecast, with its Curve Index showing a continuation of rate inflation first observed in Q4 2024. The Curve, formerly the Coyote Curve, is a proprietary index measuring year-over-year changes in truckload linehaul spot rates (excluding fuel). It has climbed steadily higher for seven consecutive quarters. After purchasing Coyote Logistics in September 2024, RXO acquired the data and combined it into a larger dataset. 'The Curve has been a leading index for years — now, as a combined organization, it's going to become even more robust,' said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO. 'As the third-largest freight brokerage in North America, we have an immense set of data spanning industries, geographies and business sizes.' The forecast highlighted how rising spot rates and capacity exiting the market are driving the upswing, though the authors caution that the extreme conditions experienced in the last inflationary market in 2020 and 2021 are not anticipated. While shippers may not feel dramatic changes yet, RXO warns that conditions are shifting in ways that could lead to tightening later this year. The Q4 2024 Curve Index showed spot rates up 11.6% year over year, a jump from the 5.8% increase seen in Q3. This rise was driven by continued carrier exits, impacts from hurricanes Helene and Milton, and typical holiday shipping seasonality. Contract rates, while still showing a slight year-over-year decline of 1.5% in Q4, moderated from the 3.4% y/y drop seen in Q3. This aligns with typical market behavior, as contract rates tend to lag spot rates by two to three quarters. 'Over the holidays, we saw market rate and coverage KPIs reach levels we haven't hit since Christmas 2022. While we have seen some of those gains moderate through the first quarter to date, the baseline has reset higher,' said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. 'Though the rest of 2025 may not look like the peak in the COVID-era truckload market, we're seeing continued signs that we're past the bottom of the cycle.' The broader U.S. economy remains relatively healthy, with low unemployment and several key indicators moving higher. However, uncertainties loom, particularly around inflation, interest rates and trade policies. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, increased by 3.3% year over year in the latest update, exceeding both market expectations and the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate. This persistent inflation, coupled with potential impacts from recent changes in U.S. trade policy, has driven consumer confidence to a seven-month low. On a positive note, the industrial sector is showing signs of improvement. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index entered expansionary territory for the first time since October 2022, with the New Orders component improving for five consecutive months. Several trends are converging to shape the current truckload market landscape: Spot and contract rate convergence: After more than two years of discounted spot rates compared to contract rates, the market is shifting. Holiday shipping season saw spot rates hold a premium over contract rates, creating tension in routing guides as carriers sought more lucrative opportunities. The forecast adds, 'Those rates and routing guides set in the softer market of 2024 may not survive a tighter market later in 2025, when the spot market will (likely) become more lucrative than the contract market.' Private fleet impact: Excess capacity in private fleets, built up during the volatility of 2020 and 2021, continues to absorb freight that would typically hit the for-hire spot market. 'This added a lot of resilience in the form of guaranteed capacity and predictable rates, but with the overall downturn in freight volumes, there has been a lot of slack in the line,' notes the report. This has prolonged the down cycle but may change as shipping volumes increase or the for-hire market further contracts. Declining truck purchases: U.S. Class 8 tractor sales were down 12% year over year in Q4 2024, reflecting financial strain on carriers and hesitancy to expand fleets amid market uncertainty. Carrier attrition: Employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows consistent year-over-year declines in truck transportation employment throughout 2024. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration reported a net decrease of over 3,000 operating authorities in Q4 alone, continuing a trend that has seen more than 50,000 authorities exit the market since 2022. Looking ahead from Q1 2025, the Curve is expected to continue its inflationary trajectory. While the market may feel relatively stable to shippers in the short term, underlying dynamics suggest more significant changes ahead. 'Though we are in an inflationary rate environment, we don't anticipate the sort of extreme conditions we experienced in the last inflationary market in 2020 and 2021,' the RXO report states. 'Based on recent history and current market dynamics, it's quite possible we'll see a lower potential market peak; for guidance, a look back to 2014 would likely be a better comparison.' The report advises shippers to be cautious about aggressive rate cutting in the current environment. Short-term gains achieved now could lead to higher spot market costs later in the year as capacity tightens. Additionally, maintaining relationships with core freight providers, even at reduced volumes, may prove crucial when market conditions shift more dramatically. 'We are in an inflationary spot market as carrier attrition continues and spot rates overtake contract rates. This dynamic will create pressure for shippers in the coming months,' the forecast concludes. 'Q1 will not likely feel like a dramatically different operating environment, which is typical given seasonality, but we are in a changing marketplace that is setting us up for a more meaningful flip later in the year.' The post Q1 forecast: Truckload rates likely to rise but not skyrocket appeared first on FreightWaves.
