Latest news with #CurrentEmploymentStatistics
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Trump says US jobs report was ‘rigged': Here's how it actually works — EXPLAINED
US President Donald Trump recently claimed that the monthly jobs report prepared by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is inaccurate, after data revealed weaker employment numbers. He fired Dr Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the body. 'In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,' Trump said on Truth Social. He also asserted that McEntarfer 'had the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years'. Following Trump's claim on the accuracy of US jobs data, let's examine what BLS does and how the survey actually works. The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) operates as an independent body within the United States Department of Labour. It is overseen by the Labour Secretary, a cabinet member of the President, and managed by a commissioner appointed by the Senate. The body gathers data on several key economic issues and regularly produces important reports. These include information on prices, inflation, productivity, expenditure, wages, workplace injuries, employment and unemployment. The BLS gathers employment data through two different surveys. The first involves traditional door-to-door visits, where surveyors go to several houses across the country and ask individuals about their employment status and demographic details. The second method is the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects data from thousands of businesses and government agencies through various methods, including telephone, internet surveys and automated data transfer for large corporations. CES survey respondents report monthly employment, hours and earnings data for all paid workers to the BLS, based on their payroll records. The data is gathered for the pay period that includes the 12th of each month. The data for a monthly report is mainly estimated by hours worked and earnings. Economists use estimates based on seasonal hiring patterns and smooth the data using seasonal adjustments to prevent large fluctuations from month to month. The BLS produces its Employment Situation Summary, also known as the monthly US jobs report, on the first Friday of every month. The report is based on two surveys. The household survey provides demographic data and the unemployment rate, while the business survey offers information on pay, hours worked and fluctuations in the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy. According to CNN, the report includes the jobs data for that specific month and revises the totals for the previous two months, either upward or downward. The data has been revised as the initial jobs figures were preliminary when first published, as some respondents fail to report their payroll data before the deadline. The BLS keeps gathering payroll data as it is reported and updates the data accordingly, it added. According to a report by PTI, economists and Wall Street investors have traditionally relied on job figures, which tend to trigger sharp movements in share prices and bond yields upon release. However, Friday's revisions were notably large. Additionally, the surveys used to gather data for the report are encountering difficulties due to declining response rates, especially since COVID, as fewer companies participate in the surveys. Numerous academics, statisticians, and economists have long warned that shrinking budgets are impairing the government's capacity to collect economic data. Although several government commissions were exploring methods to enhance survey response rates and other data collection processes, the Trump administration disbanded them earlier this year.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Firing the Data-Collectors
Jobs numbers make it all come together: "I have been a bit mystified by the economic data over the last few months. With the combination of tariffs, inappropriate fiscal expansion, immigration crackdowns, and persistently elevated long-term interest rates, why had we not been seeing significant drag on job growth?" asks Josh Barro at Very Serious. Recent jobs numbers have made that less mystifying: July growth was terribly weak, while May and June numbers were revised significantly downward, with 258,000 fewer jobs in those months than first reported by the Labor Department. "As Jason Furman wrote before these jobs numbers came in, it seemed tariffs were already boosting inflation and dampening growth at the margin, albeit not to a sufficient degree to tip the economy into recession," continues Barro. "Now the jobs numbers are also showing significant weakness, even though they're not yet showing the bottom falling out of the labor market. The last remaining bullish economic indicator is the stock market. Like Furman, I can't explain why stocks are doing so well in spite of everything. But the rest of the economic data appears to be aligning with the idea that the economy is weakening." Interestingly, something appears to be happening at the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Plenty of people are arguing that Trump is behaving like an authoritarian. "This is the kind of thing you would only expect to see in a banana republic," said Janet Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve (and former treasury secretary). But this take seems reasonable to me: Without endorsing Trump's conspiratorial speculations that the numbers are being deliberately manipulated to hurt him and favor Democrats, I do think you can make a case that the bureaucrats collecting this data have been doing a poor job. So how exactly does the BLS currently collect this data? "The BLS collects jobs data in two separate surveys," reports CNN. "The first is done in part with old-fashioned door knocking. Survey takers go home to home throughout the country asking people for their employment status and their demographic information. A second survey, known as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, is collected from thousands of businesses and government agencies using a variety of methods: via telephone, internet surveys, and—for large corporations—through an automated data transfer." Then the guesswork comes in: "BLS staff prepare the data for a monthly report by estimating America's employment, hours worked and earnings. To extrapolate the data for the entire country, BLS economists add in some educated guesswork, based on seasonal hiring trends. The BLS also smooths out the data with calculations known as seasonal adjustments to avoid huge spikes and dips in data each month." It's very possible their current data collection practices are insufficient, or their calculations are routinely misunderstanding something about the labor market and how firms are behaving. And revisions are not without precedent, but it's true that recent revisions have been…massive. "Between 1979 and 2003, the average monthly revision was 61,000 jobs," adds CNN. "Since 2003, the average monthly revision is only a slightly more accurate 51,000 jobs." So the May revision of 120,000 jobs and the June revision of 133,000 jobs are comparatively rather substantial. IVF about-face: "The White House does not plan to require health insurers to provide coverage for in vitro fertilization services, two people with knowledge of internal discussions said, even though the idea was one of President Donald Trump's key campaign pledges," reports The Washington Post, whose chief economics reporter characterizes this as "another apparent L"—loss—"from this admin for the conservative natalists." This is an example of Trump reneging on a campaign promise—one made in an attempt to curry favor with people who may have been bothered by justices appointed by him overturning Roe v. Wade. But I'm not sure it's such a loss for the conservative natalists, many of whom, if religious and staunchly pro-life, have objections to IVF that stem from the procedure's discarding of embryos. "The government is going to pay for it, or we're going to get—we'll mandate your insurance company to pay for it, which is going to be great. We're going to do that," Trump said in August of last year. "We want to produce babies in this country, right?" Emphasizing the importance of reversing the birth rate decline is a good thing to my mind, but shifting away from the government is going to pay for it or we need to foist more mandates on insurances companies is probably a good thing if the idea is to turn down the political temperature when it comes to IVF. New York City is a beach town. Here's how the city's lifeguard coordinator spends his days. QUICK HITS The Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which funds NPR and PBS, says budget cuts are forcing it to shut down. The majority of staffers will be dismissed by the end of September, with a few staying on until January "to ensure a responsible and orderly closeout of operations," per a statement. "The Federal Reserve resisted pressure from the White House last week and left its policy rate unchanged," writes Bloomberg's editorial board. "It was the right decision. As Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged, the case for a cut was a bit stronger this time than in June—and two of the Fed's policymakers, in rare dissents, voted to lower the rate by a quarter-point. For now, though, patience in relaxing the central bank's 'modestly restrictive' stance still makes sense. As Powell explained, the Fed is grappling with conflicting information and heightened uncertainty. Economic growth has slowed in recent months, the pace of hiring has cooled and data published after the Fed's decision showed that the unemployment rate edged up in July. Even so, inflation continues to run faster than the bank's 2% target (core inflation was 2.8% in the year to June), it's too soon to say how much the administration's new tariffs will push up prices, and last month's jobless rate of 4.2% still squares with policymakers' 'maximum employment' mandate." Inside the Democrats' fight over school vouchers. The post Firing the Data-Collectors appeared first on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Texas Industry Groups Look at April Upstream Employment
This article was first published on Rigzone here According to the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association's (TIPRO) analysis, direct Texas upstream employment for April totaled 206,000. That's what TIPRO said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Friday, which cited the latest Current Employment Statistics (CES) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In the statement, TIPRO highlighted that the April figure was 'an increase of 1,700 industry positions from March employment numbers, subject to revisions'. TIPRO also noted in the statement that this represented an increase of 900 jobs in the services sector and 800 jobs in oil and gas extraction. 'TIPRO's new workforce data still indicated strong job postings for the Texas oil and natural gas industry, although April data showed a decline in overall unique postings compared to the previous month, despite an increase in new postings,' TIPRO noted in its statement. 'There were 8,826 active unique jobs postings for the Texas oil and natural gas industry last month, compared to 10,120 postings in March, and 3,919 new postings, compared to 3,458 in the previous month,' TIPRO added. 'In comparison, the state of California had 2,611 unique job postings in April, followed by New York (2,392), Florida (1,744) and Colorado (1,290),' it continued. In the statement, TIPRO reported a total of 49,826 unique job postings nationwide in April within the oil and natural gas sector, 'including 22,744 new postings in April'. The industry body highlighted in its statement that, among the 19 specific industry sectors it uses to define the Texas oil and natural gas industry, Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores 'led in the ranking for unique job listings in April with 2,158 postings'. This was followed by Support Activities for Oil and Gas Operations, with 2,015 postings, and Petroleum Refineries, with 775 postings, TIPRO pointed out. TIPRO revealed in the statement that the leading three cities by total unique oil and natural gas job postings were Houston, with 2,021, Midland, with 592, and Odessa, with 411. The top three companies ranked by unique job postings in April were Love's, with 665, Cefco, with 655, and John Wood Group, with 280, the industry body outlined in the statement. TIPRO noted in its statement that, of the top ten companies listed by unique job postings in April, five companies were in the services sector, two were in the gasoline stations with convenience stores category, two were midstream companies, and one was an oil and gas operator. Top posted industry occupations for April included retail salespersons, with 411 postings, first-line supervisors of retail sales workers, with 391 postings, and heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, with 360 postings, according to TIPRO, which highlighted that the top posted job titles for April included customer service representatives, with 155 postings, store managers, with 141 postings, and maintenance technicians, with 112 postings. Top qualifications for unique job postings included a valid driver's license, with 1,574 postings, a CDL class a license, with 300 postings, and hazmat endorsement, with 166 postings, TIPRO pointed out in the statement. According to TIPRO, 42 percent of unique job postings had no education requirement listed, 30 percent required a bachelor's degree, and 29 percent required a high school diploma or GED. The industry body noted in the statement that there were 1,733 advertised salary observations, which it pointed out was 20 percent of the 8,826 matching postings, with a median salary of $58,200. Take control of your THOUSANDS of Oil & Gas jobs on Search Now >> 'The highest percentage of advertised salaries (26 percent) were in the $90,000 to $500,000 range,' TIPRO said. In its statement, TIPRO also highlighted 'significant tax contributions' by the state's oil and gas industry that the industry body said 'continue to offer essential support of government coffers and provide funding for public services'. 'In April, Texas energy producers paid $436 million in oil production taxes, according to data published by the Texas comptroller's office, up from March 2025,' TIPRO highlighted in the statement. Producers last month also paid $233 million to the state in natural gas production taxes, up 37 percent from a year ago, TIPRO noted in the statement. A statement sent to Rigzone by the Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA) on Friday stated that new data from the Texas Workforce Commission indicate that upstream oil and natural gas employment climbed by 1,700 in April compared to March. 'This follows strong hiring growth that took place in January and February of this year, during which upstream jobs grew by 2,600 and 1,600, respectively, with March having been down by 800,' TXOGA noted in that statement. 'At 206,000 upstream jobs, compared to the same month in the prior year, April 2025 jobs were up by 2,100, or one percent,' the industry body added. 'Since the Covid-low point of September of 2020, the industry has added 49,000 Texas upstream jobs, a 31.2 percent increase, averaging growth of 891 jobs a month,' TXOGA went on to state. 'During the same time, months with upstream oil and gas employment increases have outnumbered those with decrease by 39 to 15', the industry body continued. In its statement, TXOGA noted that these jobs pay among the highest wages in Texas, and pointed out that employers in oil and natural gas paid an average salary of approximately $128,000 in 2024. TXOGA highlighted in its statement that the upstream sector involves oil and natural gas extraction and excludes other industry sectors such as refining, petrochemicals, fuels wholesaling, oilfield equipment manufacturing, pipelines, and gas utilities, which it said support hundreds of thousands of additional jobs across Texas. 'The employment shown also includes Support Activities for Mining, which is mostly oil and gas-related but also includes some small amount of other types of mining,' TXOGA said in its statement. In the statement, TXOGA President Todd Staples said, 'these positive job numbers are a tremendous benefit to the families who are supported by this industry and are important for the communities in which they occur'. TIPRO describes itself as a trade association representing the interests of nearly 3,000 independent oil and natural gas producers and royalty owners throughout Texas. TXOGA describes itself as the oldest and largest oil and gas trade association in Texas representing every facet of the industry. It was founded in 1919. To contact the author, email More From The Leading Energy Platform: Thousands of Business Figures Call for Immediate End to UK EPL European Commission Awards $1B in Green Hydrogen Subsidies Ithaca Boosts Stake in 'Largest UK Continental Shelf Gas Field' Oversold NatGas Trampolines Higher, EBW Analyst Says >> Find the latest oil and gas jobs on << Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Some Workers Will Receive 3 Paychecks in May: Will You?
If you're like many American workers, you probably get paid biweekly (or every other week). In fact, the 2023 Current Employment Statistics survey Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that close to half (43%) of private U.S. companies pay their employees on a biweekly basis. Read Next: 3 Signs You've 'Made It' Financially, According to Financial Influencer Genesis Hinckley Find Out: The New Retirement Problem Boomers Are Facing If you fall into this category, get ready for the first triple-payday month of 2025. NewsNation explained that generally, months with an extra payday only happen four times per year, depending on how you're paid. However, if you're paid on a biweekly basis, you'll only benefit from two of these bonus months in 2025. The first one is in May; here's how these paydays break down. Will You Get A 'Bonus' Payday In May? To see if you'll get an 'extra' payday this month, you'll have to check when you were last paid. You won't see three paydays this month if you're paid on a bi-weekly basis and you were last paid on Thursday, April 24 or Friday, April 25. But, if you were paid on Thursday, April 17 or Friday, April 18 (before Easter), you'll receive three paychecks in May on the following dates: May 2, May 16 and May 30 (which all fall on the first, third and fifth Friday of May). For You: What Salary Single People Need To Live Comfortably in 100 Major US Cities Why This Doesn't Count As Extra Income Since there are 52 weeks in a year, those paid on a biweekly basis don't see their paychecks spread evenly throughout the year because the weeks don't spread out evenly throughout all 12 months. Some months you could see just two paychecks, while others may yield three paychecks. Those paid biweekly see 26 paychecks per year, no matter how the weeks fall on the 12-month calendar. The month of May has five Fridays, hence why for many of those paid biweekly, there will be three paydays. So, an additional paycheck this month doesn't actually count as extra income. More From GOBankingRates Sources: This article originally appeared on Some Workers Will Receive 3 Paychecks in May: Will You?
