Trump says US jobs report was ‘rigged': Here's how it actually works — EXPLAINED

Mint

2 days ago

US President Donald Trump recently claimed that the monthly jobs report prepared by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is inaccurate, after data revealed weaker employment numbers. He fired Dr Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the body.
'In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,' Trump said on Truth Social.
He also asserted that McEntarfer 'had the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years'.
Following Trump's claim on the accuracy of US jobs data, let's examine what BLS does and how the survey actually works.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) operates as an independent body within the United States Department of Labour. It is overseen by the Labour Secretary, a cabinet member of the President, and managed by a commissioner appointed by the Senate.
The body gathers data on several key economic issues and regularly produces important reports. These include information on prices, inflation, productivity, expenditure, wages, workplace injuries, employment and unemployment.
The BLS gathers employment data through two different surveys. The first involves traditional door-to-door visits, where surveyors go to several houses across the country and ask individuals about their employment status and demographic details.
The second method is the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects data from thousands of businesses and government agencies through various methods, including telephone, internet surveys and automated data transfer for large corporations.
CES survey respondents report monthly employment, hours and earnings data for all paid workers to the BLS, based on their payroll records. The data is gathered for the pay period that includes the 12th of each month.
The data for a monthly report is mainly estimated by hours worked and earnings. Economists use estimates based on seasonal hiring patterns and smooth the data using seasonal adjustments to prevent large fluctuations from month to month.
The BLS produces its Employment Situation Summary, also known as the monthly US jobs report, on the first Friday of every month.
The report is based on two surveys. The household survey provides demographic data and the unemployment rate, while the business survey offers information on pay, hours worked and fluctuations in the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy.
According to CNN, the report includes the jobs data for that specific month and revises the totals for the previous two months, either upward or downward.
The data has been revised as the initial jobs figures were preliminary when first published, as some respondents fail to report their payroll data before the deadline. The BLS keeps gathering payroll data as it is reported and updates the data accordingly, it added.
According to a report by PTI, economists and Wall Street investors have traditionally relied on job figures, which tend to trigger sharp movements in share prices and bond yields upon release. However, Friday's revisions were notably large. Additionally, the surveys used to gather data for the report are encountering difficulties due to declining response rates, especially since COVID, as fewer companies participate in the surveys.
Numerous academics, statisticians, and economists have long warned that shrinking budgets are impairing the government's capacity to collect economic data. Although several government commissions were exploring methods to enhance survey response rates and other data collection processes, the Trump administration disbanded them earlier this year.