Latest news with #EmploymentSituationSummary
Mint
05-08-2025
- Business
- Mint
Trump says US jobs report was ‘rigged': Here's how it actually works — EXPLAINED
US President Donald Trump recently claimed that the monthly jobs report prepared by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is inaccurate, after data revealed weaker employment numbers. He fired Dr Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the body. 'In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,' Trump said on Truth Social. He also asserted that McEntarfer 'had the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years'. Following Trump's claim on the accuracy of US jobs data, let's examine what BLS does and how the survey actually works. The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) operates as an independent body within the United States Department of Labour. It is overseen by the Labour Secretary, a cabinet member of the President, and managed by a commissioner appointed by the Senate. The body gathers data on several key economic issues and regularly produces important reports. These include information on prices, inflation, productivity, expenditure, wages, workplace injuries, employment and unemployment. The BLS gathers employment data through two different surveys. The first involves traditional door-to-door visits, where surveyors go to several houses across the country and ask individuals about their employment status and demographic details. The second method is the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects data from thousands of businesses and government agencies through various methods, including telephone, internet surveys and automated data transfer for large corporations. CES survey respondents report monthly employment, hours and earnings data for all paid workers to the BLS, based on their payroll records. The data is gathered for the pay period that includes the 12th of each month. The data for a monthly report is mainly estimated by hours worked and earnings. Economists use estimates based on seasonal hiring patterns and smooth the data using seasonal adjustments to prevent large fluctuations from month to month. The BLS produces its Employment Situation Summary, also known as the monthly US jobs report, on the first Friday of every month. The report is based on two surveys. The household survey provides demographic data and the unemployment rate, while the business survey offers information on pay, hours worked and fluctuations in the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy. According to CNN, the report includes the jobs data for that specific month and revises the totals for the previous two months, either upward or downward. The data has been revised as the initial jobs figures were preliminary when first published, as some respondents fail to report their payroll data before the deadline. The BLS keeps gathering payroll data as it is reported and updates the data accordingly, it added. According to a report by PTI, economists and Wall Street investors have traditionally relied on job figures, which tend to trigger sharp movements in share prices and bond yields upon release. However, Friday's revisions were notably large. Additionally, the surveys used to gather data for the report are encountering difficulties due to declining response rates, especially since COVID, as fewer companies participate in the surveys. Numerous academics, statisticians, and economists have long warned that shrinking budgets are impairing the government's capacity to collect economic data. Although several government commissions were exploring methods to enhance survey response rates and other data collection processes, the Trump administration disbanded them earlier this year.
NBC News
04-08-2025
- Business
- NBC News
Jobs data revisions are common. Here's how the process works.
President Donald Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, claiming that last week's jobs report 'was rigged' without providing any evidence. But former Labor Statistics officials say that the commissioner typically doesn't have a role in preparing the monthly jobs report. 'There's no way for that to happen,' said William Beach, Trump's nominee to be BLS commissioner during his first term, in a Sunday interview on CNN. 'The commissioner doesn't do anything to collect the numbers. The commissioner doesn't see the numbers until Wednesday before they're published. By the time the commissioner sees the numbers, they're all prepared. They're locked into the computer system,' Beach continued. So how does the BLS collect data for the jobs report? The process for preparing the monthly jobs report, formally known as the 'Employment Situation Summary,' starts with a survey of American households. The Current Population Survey goes out to about 60,000 households across the country, including about 2,000 trained employees interviewing people. The sample of households surveyed changes periodically and no household is surveyed more than four months in a row. 'Each month, one-eighth of the sample is interviewed for the first time, one-eighth for the second time, and so on. This rotation scheme has been in use since July 1953 and strengthens the reliability of estimates of month-to-month change as well as estimates of year-to-year change,' the bureau says in its website. The BLS also conducts a survey of government agencies and businesses, asking them for information about their workforce, hours worked and earnings data from their payroll records. That data is collected by BLS over the phone and digitally. After data from companies and agencies are submitted, BLS analysts review the data. All of the information submitted to the BLS is treated with strict confidentiality. Federal law authorizes the Bureau of Labor Statistics to collect and process this information. Asked to provide evidence for Trump's claims of impropriety, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said on NBC's 'Meet the Press' that revisions made to prior months were 'the evidence.' Trump also said the revisions were evidence of someone manipulating the data, 'I assume in the hopes of getting 'Kamala' elected.' 'What you saw on Friday was the effect of trying to do a better job, getting more information,' Beach said, referring to the revisions. Erica Groshen, commissioner of the agency from 2013 through 2017, concurred and said revisions are not the sign of any manipulation. 'The important thing is to realize that revisions are not a bug. They're a feature, right? The BLS tries three different times to get employers to report how many jobs they have and sometimes the employers can't report it right away. So, the BLS imputes the number from behavior of other people, other companies like them, and history,' Groshen said on CNN on Friday. 'And [BLS] puts out the first monthly number because there's a lot of good information in it, but it's not complete. And then a month later it goes back and asks those employers again. They have another chance. And if they made a mistake, they have a chance to correct their mistakes. And it goes back a third time to make sure that they got it right,' she added. While response rates to the Bureau's surveys have been declining, researchers recently found that revisions and falling response rates did not reduce the reliability of the jobs and inflation reports. This style of surveying has been in use by the agency for seven decades. Despite the old-fashioned style of surveying households through the mail and in-person interviews, the first-release estimates of jobs added or lost each month has been getting more and more accurate over time, according to Yale Budget Lab director Ernie Tedeschi. Once data is gathered from companies, government agencies and businesses, and reviewed by analysts, it is prepared and formatted for the monthly jobs report. That final report includes the number of jobs added that month, revisions for prior months, the unemployment rate and additional stats on jobs added or lost in a variety of industries across the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses this general method of data collection for other reports too. Those include monthly inflation figures and productivity reports. Commissioners at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while nominated by presidents, often serve across multiple administrations. For example, the commissioner nominated by president George W. Bush also served under President Barack Obama. Commissioner William Beach, nominated by Donald Trump, also served under President Joe Biden. And the fired commissioner Erika McEntarfer, who was nominated by Biden, had continued to serve under Trump. With questions about data reliability now front of mind, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Sunday that there really is no substitute for high quality nonpartisan data from the federal government. 'Having a flawed instrument panel can be just as dangerous as having an obediently partisan pilot,' he wrote. 'Moreover, one should not be under the illusion that the proliferation of private sector 'big data' indicators over the past decade can substitute for high quality federal data. In almost all cases these indicators are benchmarked to the federal data, as private sector data are very rarely nationally representative.'
Miami Herald
01-08-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Jobs report: U.S. added 73,000 jobs in July, below expectations
Aug. 1 (UPI) -- Jobs growth was slower than expected in July, and the unemployment rate rose, showing signs of trouble for the labor market. Nonfarm payroll for July was up by 73,000, which is higher than June at 14,000. But the Dow Jones estimate for gain was 100,000. The totals for May and June were revised significantly, down by 258,000 from what was announced. May was revised from 144,000 jobs added to 19,000 jobs added. June's revision went from 147,000 jobs added to 14,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary. Revisions come from additional reports from businesses and government agencies since the last published numbers and seasonal factors. Unemployment raised to 4.2%, which was predicted. "This is a gamechanger jobs report," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, to CNBC. "The labor market is deteriorating quickly." This is in sharp contrast to what ADP reported just two days ago. The employment company's National Employment report said private sector employment increased by 104,000 jobs in July, a reversal of June when jobs were at a 23,000 loss, a count revised from a previously announced loss of 33,000. "Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy," said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson in a press release on July 30. "Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient." The health care industry added 55,000 jobs, which is higher than the monthly gain of 42,000 over the previous 12 months. Those jobs were mostly in ambulatory care services and hospitals. Social assistance employment added 18,000 job growth in July. Federal government employment lost 12,000 jobs in July and is down by 84,000 since January. The household survey was worse than the establishment survey of total payroll gains. It showed a decline of 260,000 workers, with the participation rate at 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022. The number of discouraged workers decreased by 212,000 in July to 425,000, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. Discouraged workers are those who believed that no jobs were available for them. Those employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in July. These are people who wanted full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. Copyright 2025 UPI News Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
UPI
01-08-2025
- Business
- UPI
Jobs report: U.S. added 73,000 jobs in July, below expectations
A now hiring banner hangs outside a waste management business in Irwindale, Calif., in 2021. Friday's jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is bleaker than expected. File Photo by Jim Ruymen/UPI | License Photo Aug. 1 (UPI) -- Jobs growth was slower than expected in July, and the unemployment rate rose, showing signs of trouble for the labor market. Nonfarm payroll for July was up by 73,000, which is higher than June at 14,000. But the Dow Jones estimate for gain was 100,000. The totals for May and June were revised significantly, down by 258,000 from what was announced. May was revised from 144,000 jobs added to 19,000 jobs added. June's revision went from 147,000 jobs added to 14,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary. Revisions come from additional reports from businesses and government agencies since the last published numbers and seasonal factors. Unemployment raised to 4.2%, which was predicted. "This is a gamechanger jobs report," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, to CNBC. "The labor market is deteriorating quickly." This is in sharp contrast to what ADP reported just two days ago. The employment company's National Employment report said private sector employment increased by 104,000 jobs in July, a reversal of June when jobs were at a 23,000 loss, a count revised from a previously announced loss of 33,000. "Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy," said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson in a press release on July 30. "Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient." The health care industry added 55,000 jobs, which is higher than the monthly gain of 42,000 over the previous 12 months. Those jobs were mostly in ambulatory care services and hospitals. Social assistance employment added 18,000 job growth in July. Federal government employment lost 12,000 jobs in July and is down by 84,000 since January. The household survey was worse than the establishment survey of total payroll gains. It showed a decline of 260,000 workers, with the participation rate at 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022. The number of discouraged workers decreased by 212,000 in July to 425,000, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. Discouraged workers are those who believed that no jobs were available for them. Those employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in July. These are people who wanted full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
The Hill
22-05-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Economists warn tariffs may affect jobs
Uncertainty is in the air, but it might be June at the earliest before we see the results of the new tariffs, say leading economists. According to the latest Employment Situation Summary, issued by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 2nd, for total nonfarm payroll employment, 177,00 jobs were added in April. This was down slightly from 185,000 jobs added in March, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2 percent. Things seem to be looking good, except for the fact that even pre-tariffs, the U.S. GDP shrunk for the first time in three years (decreasing at an annual rate of 0.3 percent) from January to March.5 jobs hiring right now However, it wasn't until April 2nd that President Trump announced a minimum 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, effective from April 5th, with higher tariffs on imports from 57 countries, ranging from 11% to 50%. Referring to the latest Employment Situation Summary, Appcast economist Andrew Flowers asked in a recent video: 'Is this the last 'before' jobs report?' He highlights that healthcare added 50,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality added 24,000 jobs, while professional and business services added 17,000 jobs. Discussing the 'before', Flowers says a job gain of 29,000 in transportation and warehousing jobs in April was indicative of consumers and businesses frontloading their purchases of foreign goods. As a consumer, you've probably already been targeted by online price reduction ads on items before retail prices are raised due to tariffs. This has caused influxes of sales and increased the need for trucking and warehousing staff. But how sustainable is this rise? He also points to federal workforce reductions of 9,000 last month, which was expected. Reflecting on the April jobs report, Flowers' outlook on Q2 is mixed. 'It's showing strength, but the tariffs are a major shock. We've seen huge declines in transoceanic shipments. There's anecdotal evidence from businesses that inventories are being depleted as consumers and businesses are preparing for the tariff impacts that could really materialize in the coming weeks and months.' Meanwhile, Glassdoor's lead economist Daniel Zhao agrees that this report might be the benchmark we'll measure tariff impacts against, but May might be too soon. In a lengthy LinkedIn post, he highlighted much of the same figures as Andrew Flowers did, but also shared that manufacturing employment fell by 1,000 in April. Though a modest decline and early days, it may disappoint voters who took a punt on the president's campaign promises to revive American manufacturing. Zhao stresses that the true impact of the tariffs won't show up quickly. 'Keep in mind that the job market can be a lagging indicator for the overall economy as it takes time for businesses to hire and fire workers at a scale that shows up in the national economic data.''Tariff impacts will also be staggered as many employers took anticipatory measures to build up inventories in advance and some sectors are more exposed than others. The back half of the year is really where the full impact of tariffs are likely to become clear. And of course, this all depends on what tariffs look like over the next few months as tariff policy feels like it's changing on a near-daily basis.' This means many companies and organizations are sitting tight, and are avoiding making any big decisions. Spooked by unpredictability, many companies have paused or canceled hiring until the economy is on clearer footing. It's already a tough job market out there, as anyone hunting will know, and this uncertainty doesn't help matters. Concurrently, the federal firing freeze will last until July 15th at least, plus there's the fact that over 121,000 federal employees were laid off in the first quarter of 2025, not including those who took voluntary is fierce, and job opportunities are fewer and fewer. Overall job postings are down 7.4% year-over-year as of April 2025, according to Aura real-time data from KPMG shows that job postings are down in major states such as California, New York, and Massachusetts, and with especially notable declines in Washington, DC, Virginia, and Maryland due to federal government cuts. It hasn't been this difficult to job hunt in a very long time. Additionally, those who are already employed but seeking a new opportunity may be burdened by extra workloads due to hiring freezes, and may be too burnt out to job hunt in the evenings and weekends. If you're navigating this challenging job market, you can stay informed about new opportunities as they become available on The Hill's Job Board. Updated daily with a range of roles in policy, communications, and related fields, it's an extremely valuable resource. Bookmark the link below, and visit regularly to stay up to date. Ready to find a new role? Browse thousands of jobs on The Hill Job Board
