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Yahoo
13-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ISW analyses ways Russia prepares for war with NATO
Based on Danish intelligence data, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has analysed how Russia is preparing for a war with NATO in the medium and long term. Source: ISW Details: Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has assessed that Russia may have the capability to launch a full-scale war against NATO within the next five years, which coincides with ISW's assessment of Russia's efforts to restructure and prepare its armed forces and society for a future conflict with NATO within the medium to long term. DDIS has published a declassified intelligence assessment detailing the growing Russian threat to Denmark and NATO Allies. The intelligence assessment notes that Russia is rebuilding its armed forces to fight NATO on an equal footing, with financial and material support from the People's Republic of China (PRC), North Korea and Iran. The intelligence report notes that the readiness of Russia to engage in war with NATO could increase if European countries do not simultaneously increase their military capabilities in response to Russian capacity-building efforts. The UK's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported on 12 February that Europe will spend US$457 billion on defence in 2024, while Russia spent US$462 billion on its defence last year. The DDIS intelligence assessment notes that Russia has not yet decided to launch a full-scale war against NATO but is expanding its military capabilities to preserve this option. Quote: "The intelligence assessment notably warns that a cessation or freeze of the war in Ukraine on terms favourable to Russia will free up significant Russian military resources for their involvement in another future conventional conflict — consistent with ISW's long-standing assessment." Details: The DDIS assessment outlines a timeframe for the growth of the military threat from Russia in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine: Russia could launch a localised war against a neighbouring state other than Ukraine within six months; Russia could credibly threaten NATO countries in the Baltic region in two years; and Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe, provided that NATO does not rearm at the same rate as Russia, in five years. Quote: "ISW previously assessed that Russia's efforts to restructure the Russian military, revive the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, and create long-term mechanisms to militarize and radicalize Russian society against Western ideals and values indicate that Russia is preparing for a future conflict with NATO." Background: Recently, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that he still sees a possibility that Russia will try to attack NATO countries in 2029-2030. Last summer, the German minister spoke of the need to be ready for war by 2029. Support UP or become our patron!
Yahoo
12-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Russia may find opportunity to launch large-scale war on Europe within 5 years, Danish intelligence warns
Russia may find the opportunity to launch a large-scale war on Europe within five years, if Moscow "perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided," an unclassified intelligence assessment from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) warned. "Russia perceives itself as being in conflict with the West and is preparing for a war against NATO. While no decision to initiate such a war has been made, Russia is building the capacity to make that choice if deemed necessary," the report, published on Feb. 9, warned. The latest intelligence assessment comes amid a series of increasingly dire warnings from Western leaders and defense officials about the threat emanating from Russia and Europe's current lack of preparedness. The DDIS in its report noted that fracturing among alliance members could present an opportunity for Moscow to capitalize, particularly if the United States is unwilling to protect its European allies. U.S. President Donald Trump sparked international outrage in February 2024 when he said he would urge Russia to do "whatever the hell they want" to NATO member countries failing to meet defense spending criteria, in a declaration indicating his disregard for the alliance's collective defense principle. Since being inaugurated, Trump has raised the ire of NATO allies by not ruling out using military force to gain control of , an autonomous region of Denmark, as well as using economic coercion to force Canada to become a state. The DDIS report assessed that Russia may be able to wage war with a neighboring country within six month if it is able to reallocate military resources from Ukraine in the event of a frozen conflict or the end of the war. The report also concluded that Moscow poses a regional threat to Baltic states within two years, and a large-scale war with Europe in five years, presuming the U.S. does not intervene. The report acknowledges that the evolution of the Ukraine war will likely dictate Russia's future intention, adding that "it is unlikely that Russia could sustain both the war in Ukraine and a simultaneous war with NATO." The report also does not account for an increase in NATO's military capabilities to match that of Moscow. On Dec. 12, the Financial Times reported that European NATO foreign ministers began discussing a plan to gradually increase the alliance's defense spending target from 2% of their GDP to 3% by 2030. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump called for an even more radical increase, up to 5% of GDP. Read also: US to consult allies on Ukraine peace plan, seeks Europe's arms purchases for Kyiv, media report We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
