ISW analyses ways Russia prepares for war with NATO
Based on Danish intelligence data, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has analysed how Russia is preparing for a war with NATO in the medium and long term.
Source: ISW
Details: Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has assessed that Russia may have the capability to launch a full-scale war against NATO within the next five years, which coincides with ISW's assessment of Russia's efforts to restructure and prepare its armed forces and society for a future conflict with NATO within the medium to long term.
DDIS has published a declassified intelligence assessment detailing the growing Russian threat to Denmark and NATO Allies.
The intelligence assessment notes that Russia is rebuilding its armed forces to fight NATO on an equal footing, with financial and material support from the People's Republic of China (PRC), North Korea and Iran. The intelligence report notes that the readiness of Russia to engage in war with NATO could increase if European countries do not simultaneously increase their military capabilities in response to Russian capacity-building efforts.
The UK's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported on 12 February that Europe will spend US$457 billion on defence in 2024, while Russia spent US$462 billion on its defence last year.
The DDIS intelligence assessment notes that Russia has not yet decided to launch a full-scale war against NATO but is expanding its military capabilities to preserve this option.
Quote: "The intelligence assessment notably warns that a cessation or freeze of the war in Ukraine on terms favourable to Russia will free up significant Russian military resources for their involvement in another future conventional conflict — consistent with ISW's long-standing assessment."
Details: The DDIS assessment outlines a timeframe for the growth of the military threat from Russia in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine: Russia could launch a localised war against a neighbouring state other than Ukraine within six months; Russia could credibly threaten NATO countries in the Baltic region in two years; and Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe, provided that NATO does not rearm at the same rate as Russia, in five years.
Quote: "ISW previously assessed that Russia's efforts to restructure the Russian military, revive the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, and create long-term mechanisms to militarize and radicalize Russian society against Western ideals and values indicate that Russia is preparing for a future conflict with NATO."
Background:
Recently, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that he still sees a possibility that Russia will try to attack NATO countries in 2029-2030.
Last summer, the German minister spoke of the need to be ready for war by 2029.
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