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Express Tribune
24-05-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
What an incentivised or a punished Iran means for ME
The writer is a non-resident research fellow in the research and analysis department of IPRI and an Assistant Professor at DHA Suffa University Karachi Listen to article The international system was always anarchic, but the current shift in the balance of global influence is making it more turbulent and uncertain. For good or for bad, the global geopolitical landscape is experiencing a shift, and the great responsibility of all stakeholders, including the state practitioners and policymakers, is to correctly read these changes and make sure that the choices they make enable the countries that they lead to stand on the right side of history. Uncertainty of the international system is aptly described in how Iran, despite engaging in the fifth round of nuclear talks with the US, is not buoyed by the idea of reconciliation but is more concerned and threatened by the growing possibility of an Israeli air strike on its nuclear facilities. No central authority, not even the US, can probably guarantee that no such military action will take place, thus making the international system so anarchic. China and Russia lead the change the world is witnessing in the global balance of influence. That change is well demonstrated in the way both these great powers view the uncertain times that Iran is experiencing. The geopolitical positioning of Russia and China on Iran matters, and both the US and Israel would do well to correctly read their position before the game-changing decision about Iran is finally taken — integrating Iran in the global economy or taking a military action against it. Russia is fighting a war in Ukraine, and ideally, it should be happy to see its main adversary preoccupied in the Middle East. This diversion of American attention suits Russia, and it is not merely the diversion of attention but also the diversion of American capabilities, as was evident in the aftermath of the October 7 attack by Hamas when the Biden administration provided additional batteries of Patriot Missiles to Israel, which Kyiv desperately needed. Any war in the Middle East will drive up the prices of oil; and under Western sanctions, increased oil prices mean the generation of more revenue by the war-hit Russian economy. Russia's position on Syria is sensitive. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, President Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria — a long-time Russian satellite state. It has been acting as the Russian platform for projecting Russian power in the Eastern Mediterranean through the Russian air and naval bases there. The Syrian president has also stated that, given the right conditions, Syria may one day consider joining the Abraham Accords. So one can easily say that the balance of influence in this strategically important country in the Middle East is shifting from the Russian to the American side. This diminishing Russian influence in Syria also means bad news for Russia in other strategically important places. Russia's ability to export military influence and control to Libya and the Sahel, where it has an expanding presence, will also be affected. If a war erupts in the Middle East following an Israeli air strike on Iran, then geopolitically, Russia may find opportunities and the US and its allies, including Israel and the Arab states in the Persian Gulf, may only be exposed to increased risks and threats. A war in the Middle East would be bad news for the Chinese economy. It is the economy that led China to broker the historic diplomatic normalisation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. China transports $280 billion worth of goods annually through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, which constitutes 20% of China's overall maritime trade. The American myth that China is interested in fomenting global chaos to create American preoccupation in the troubled spots to undermine the American-led international order is based on a wrong assumption. The Chinese economy cannot afford global chaos, or more specifically, a war erupting in the Middle East. Strategically, CPEC and BRI are Chinese projects designed to avert such risks by building more diverse supply chains. Iran is China's strategic partner, and without China's help, it would be difficult for Iran, under sanctions, to sustain its economy. China would neither want any external power to exercise dominance and control in the Indian Ocean region. More a commercial than a war-fighting water body, China will do everything in its power to not allow the Indian Ocean to lose its globally accepted standing and status of being only a commercial water body. Saudi Arabia, under MBS, also follows a consistent policy that states that the future of the Middle East should not be shaped by force. He is all set to safeguard his Vision 2030. MBS visions not ballistic missiles but tourists flying to and from countries in the Middle East. The initiation of change in Saudi Arabia has its roots in how MBS took a huge political risk in sidelining his religious police and confronting the conservative backlash. He masterminded the change in the balance of influence in Saudi society by unshackling it from the age-long chains of religiosity. There were political risks, but he took them. Today, Neom City, with over 50 luxury hotels being built along the Red Sea and the world's tallest building being built in Riyadh, is all a testimony to MBS's resolve to make Saudi Arabia part of the modern world. If a nuclear deal between the US and Iran materialises, then after a gap of 45 years, it will open up the possibility of the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Such a scenario in itself is likely to bring huge geopolitical changes in the Middle East. Iranian proxies may no longer pursue goals that represented a defiant Iran. Incentivised Iran will find it reasonable to withdraw support to all its proxies. Imagine the hope this gives to the innocent people residing in the Middle Eastern conflict zones. Like the 25 million people living in Yemen, a country so poor that it imports 90% of its food. President Trump led a $1 billion bombing campaign against this country because the Houthis were executing drone attacks and firing missiles at ships, thus violating the freedom of navigation of ships in international waters. This is considered justified under international law, but criticised by those who read and understand international law, but cannot understand why the same is allowed to be violated in Gaza. If Iran and the US strike a deal and base their future relationship on reconciliation, then the resumption of harmonious relations between the two will not be possible unless Israel fits into the equation. If peace is to be given a chance in the Middle East, then the US will have to reconsider its policy towards Israel. Surely, a US-Iran deal will only materialise after Iran can extract such a guarantee from the US.
Express Tribune
17-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Public diplomacy and Indian war of reputation
The writer is a non-resident research fellow in the research and analysis department of IPRI and an Assistant Professor at DHA Suffa University Karachi Listen to article India sought glory, and when the achievement of glory became the war-fighting aim, the only way you ended up fighting was a war of reputation. Ideally, a war of reputation is fought to influence perception and control of a given narrative. In a war of reputation, an actor would use all measures short of war to harm the reputation of an adversary. India was doing so over a long period, spreading misinformation, manipulating public opinion of the audience at home and abroad, and engaging in negative publicity against Pakistan. It should have understood the limits of the reputational war it was fighting and should have desisted from undertaking a military adventure against Pakistan and making it part of this reputational war. Two great differences were highlighted during this period of short Indian aggression: the difference in technology and the nature of the two adversaries. India lost the battle of supremacy of the technology, and while undermining our national resilience, it ignored, with disastrous results, the extent of our national enthusiasm and spirit. Post-Pahalgam India is a different India. Its political and military reputation is dented. It has lost one of the most essential components of power politics that makes any power great — military credibility. Post-Pahalgam, at the apex of the Indian pyramid of political and military mediocrity stands PM Modi, an impulsive leader who's violent and aggressive ambitions now threaten peace and security of the entire region and need to be controlled and held back. His external affairs minister, S Jaishankar, made a laughing stock of himself by claiming that Pakistan was informed about the Indian plan of attacking the alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan, and that the Pakistan military should not have interfered and should have stepped aside. This sounded quite similar to the language that the Israeli ministers spoke when they proceeded to execute the genocide of Muslims in Gaza and Lebanon. The incoherent and incomprehensible manner in which the Indians are trying to defend their mistake is even forcing people in India to doubt the false reality being fed to them by the Indian government, and people in India are raising their voices against their country's political and military incompetence. Information is the building block on which a true reality is built. Pakistan did a good job in communicating the true picture of Indian aggression, not only through the official government channels but also through the public sphere by its mass media. Given our success in the information warfare during the Indian aggression, the government should take the lead and should consider modifying the implementation of our foreign policy and adopt an approach that gives centrality to the establishment of public diplomacy. The digital warriors, the common patriotic Pakistanis should be allowed full access to the internet and all digital platforms to push back the Indian and promote our narrative. The core purpose of public diplomacy is to influence the external policy environment, and Pakistan must continue to encourage the public in the development of a credible anti-Indian narrative that must highlight India as the perpetrator of terrorism and a country that threatens peace and security in the region. Outwardly, the public must be allowed to participate in the narrative building and share the same with the outside world. The Indian domestic audience needs to be bombarded with the truth and actual reality of the misadventure by their political and military elite. We must do that with greater visibility and strong voices on all platforms of social media to influence the Indian preference, which was built on choosing the worst course of action that de-glorified India. This will only encourage the outside world to understand more and share more about the incompetence and failure of the Indian political and military elite. Harvard professor Joseph Nye leads the soft power discourse in the world and has authored many books on the subject. He terms soft power as the ability of the state to set an agenda. The Indian aggression, I am sure, has multiplied many times our will to now set a reformed agenda against the state of India which should move beyond the rooted-in-the-past and traditional two-nation theory and bring the discourse to what constitutes terrorism and how India has a state policy of exporting terrorism not only in the region but around the globe. The public must be encouraged to relentlessly build this narrative for the outside world through all platforms of social media. Official channel diplomacy and public diplomacy must work hand in hand to make this practice successful. The war clouds are still hovering, and as long as PM Modi is in power, Pakistan can expect the worst from the Indian government. Despite this assumption, I do think that our great success in information warfare opens up the debate for the role of public diplomacy in our foreign policy. While we may never lower our guard and our defence forces will remain prepared to counter any future Indian aggression, we must also not give up on the use of skillful statecraft and the new role that public diplomacy can play. In this context, Joseph Nye identifies three dimensions of public diplomacy practice. First is daily communication, which he recommends should be built around mass public participation and should be relentless. The government digital outlook teams may work to control the misinformation, but daily communication may continue from all public platforms to ensure the promotion of the national narrative, with the objective that it should be favourably received and accepted by the outside world. Second is dimension of public diplomacy that Nye identifies as strategic communication. This, he recommends, should rest on broader foreign policy aspirations than the specific objectives, like building a national narrative. The strategic communication seeks leader-to-leader engagement, including the possibility of meetings or a summit, social and cultural interactions, like sporting events organised to facilitate strategic communication. Third is public diplomacy dimension in building lasting relationships. It is built around the spirit that all differences are solvable and is the culminating point of the success of the first two public diplomacy dimensions. Lastly, as per Winston Churchill's goodwill dictum, it is goodwill that one should pursue during peace. We showed our resolution in war, and we must now switch on to raise the standard of our official and public diplomacy and stop celebrating victory, and demonstrate what Churchill termed as magnanimity in victory.
Express Tribune
01-03-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
'AI-driven reskilling is a must'
Listen to article Reskilling can help technology professionals achieve success in the coming years, as Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape the software development industry by creating new business opportunities and reducing development timelines, according to AI experts and coaches who spoke to The Express Tribune. DHA Suffa University Karachi's Dean of the Faculty of Computing and Information Technology, Prof Dr Zafar Nasir, stated, "AI's monumental growth has brought about a significant change in the overall landscape of software development and has profoundly impacted the software industry." According to 'Grand View Research', the global AI market is projected to grow 37.3% from 2023 to 2030. AI in software development is expected to attract substantial investment in the near future, as it serves as a catalyst for staffing needs, enables the creation of highly personalised products, and helps businesses expand their customer base. A recent survey found that 58% of NYSE-listed companies identified AI investment as a key driver for developing new revenue streams. As AI technologies continue to evolve, their business applications will become more apparent. Based on customer surveys, more than 70% of NYSE-listed companies have shown interest in investing in AI for customer service. This shift is also diminishing the traditional experience premium, as AI is narrowing the gap between industry experts and novices. Calling for a paradigm shift in workforce reskilling, Dr Zafar Nasir highlighted that nearly 25% of jobs will undergo rapid transformations. The 14% productivity boost observed in customer service agents using Generative AI reflects the evolving workplace dynamics. As AI redefines job roles, organisations must adopt agile redeployment strategies to retain skilled talent while transitioning from traditional practices to more specialised, skill-based functions. According to the Mercer Survey, 60% of employees prefer working for skill-based organisations. This trend bodes well for businesses looking to automate their processes with AI-driven applications. Nasir further explained that AI is reshaping the software industry by automating multiple aspects of the development cycle, including code generation, testing, deployment, and security. This transformation allows engineers to focus on high-level problem-solving, such as architectural planning, system integration, decision-making, and other creative challenges that drive innovation and efficiency. AI-powered training systems can also provide personalised learning paths, ensuring professionals remain updated. Additionally, AI fosters agile and cost-effective strategies that align with market dynamics, such as evolving consumer demands and manufacturing processes. AI-powered design software can generate multiple optimised designs for a single product. "AI has the potential to alter the overall dynamics of software development and maximise throughput. This is particularly true in the context of AI coding tools, which provide a strategic advantage in task completion and productivity enhancement," he said. Renowned SEO expert and IT coach Mehboob Shar, Founder and CEO of Icreativez Technologies, said, "AI is significantly accelerating software development processes. While a 12-fold increase in efficiency may seem ambitious, AI enables tasks that previously took hundreds of hours of programmer time to be completed in minutes, simply by generating the right prompts," Shar stated. At Icreativez Technologies, AI has enabled developers and software engineers to complete tasks within a single day that previously required weeks. As a result, teams that once managed only one project at a time can now handle multiple projects concurrently. Tech strategist and National Incubation Centre (NIC) Karachi Project Director Syed Azfar Husain said, AI is reshaping software development by making coding, testing, and deployment faster and more efficient. Tools like GitHub Copilot assist developers in writing code faster. AI has also contributed to major business successesNetflix uses AI to optimise cloud costs, while startups like UiPath have grown into billion-dollar enterprises by automating business processes. Beyond the corporate world, AI presents exciting opportunities for universities to introduce AI-driven courses and research programmes. By integrating AI into their operations, businesses can enhance productivity, reduce costs, and drive innovation, ensuring long-term growth in an increasingly technology-driven landscape. Pakistan's software developers can leverage AI by incorporating machine learning and automation into their solutions, making products smarter and more competitive on a global scale. As Pakistan moves towards formulating its first-ever AI Policy in 2025, developers can align with government initiatives for funding, policy support, and regulatory clarity. AI frameworks such as TensorFlow and PyTorch facilitate advanced applications, while low-code and no-code AI tools accelerate development cycles. Startups can build AI solutions for agriculture, healthcare, and fintech, addressing local challenges. Collaborating with universities and AI research hubs can also foster innovation.
