Latest news with #DanNiles
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Record highs are in reach for Wall Street. Why Dan Niles says that's not an all-clear sign
Stocks ended the week on an upswing, propped up by a better-than-expected jobs report and a rebound for Tesla , with the S & P 500 trading above 6,000 to sniff its all-time high. If the index can break though its closing record mark of 6,144.15 from February, it would be a remarkable turnaround given the tariff and economic slowdown concerns that weighed on the market in March and April — and are still hanging around. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has rallied back to near its record high. But the rebound might be running on borrowed time, according to Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management. "I think we could get to new all-time record highs. But remember the reason I believe that, is I believe demand is being pulled forward," Niles said Friday on CNBC's "Money Movers." "If you're a rational consumer, you're buying things like smartphones, autos and PCs because you know prices are going up — you've been told that," he said, adding that companies are spending in a similar manner. If this is a temporarily inflated economy, it's not exactly a booming one. Job growth has definitely slowed, even if it is still beating monthly estimates, and there's a slow but steady drip of corporate layoff announcements . Earlier this week, an ISM purchasing managers' index showed that the service sector dipped into contraction territory in May. "Taken together, the mixed developments signal the complexity at this stage in the economic cycle as corporations adapt to the uncertainty and shifting tides," José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in a commentary note on Friday. To be sure, Niles is not betting against the market even with his medium-term concern. He said he is playing for the market bounce to continue while also considering raising more cash. "For right now that's kind of the way I'm thinking — the market just kind of meanders higher, maybe gets to new all-time highs. Wouldn't surprise me if it sells off by 10% in Q4," Niles said.
CNBC
19-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
The Fed is unlikely to cut this year, says Niles Investment's Dan Niles
Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss markets, tech and the economy.
CNBC
25-04-2025
- Business
- CNBC
An options trade to bet the bottom is in for Alphabet after the strong results this week
"Search King" Alphabet , parent company of Google and YouTube, reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth, impressively beating on both top and bottom lines. Investors have had to endure significant and a much needed revaluation in Big Tech and I believe the washout is over. I want to own the upside in Google. The shares are still down roughly 20% from recent all-time highs in the face of continued uncertainty on tariffs. I want to use an options spread to define my risk in a bullish view for Google to move back higher towards $200. GOOGL YTD mountain Alphabet, YTD There was also a nice surprise in unrealized gains tucked into the Q1 earnings report. $11.2 billion in "Other Income," up 293% year-over-year, with $8 billion attributed to unrealized gains on "non-marketable equity securities." Bloomberg reported that this gain stemmed from Alphabet's investment in SpaceX, valued at approximately $350 billion in a December 2024 insider share transaction. Overall market price action in the month of April has been historic as the Cboe Volatility Index vaulted over 60 momentarily after uncertainty surround trade tariffs caught investors off guard. 2025 has been a roller coaster for Google too as we saw an all-time high in early February of $207.05 to an acute and a precipitous 32% drop (after trade tariffs were announced) printing a low of $140.53 in April. Jaw dropping volatility for a $2 trillion tech giant. I want to express a bullish opinion but, I also want to try to finance as much of this spread as I can since option premiums are still elevated with the VIX above 25. The Trade Sold the 6/20/2025 $150 GOOGL puts for $2.85 Bought the 6/20/2025 $170 GOOGL calls for $6.25 Sold the 6/20/2025 $190 GOOGL calls for $1.25 This spread will cost an investor $2.15 or $215 per one spread. GOOGL was roughly trading at $165 when this was established An investor has to be willing to own GOOGL at $150 in the event those puts get assigned. Therefore, the downside risk is unlimited if out to a long position when owning GOOGL. The upside maximum is capped out at $17.85 or $1,785 per one lot spread, $20 call spread minus the cost of the spread ($2.15). Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited! DISCLOSURES: Long GOOGL and this spread All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Amazon.com (AMZN): Short-Term Shivers, Long-Term Gains?
We recently published a list of . In this article, we are going to take a look at where Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) stands against other stocks on analysts' radar amid tariff turbulence. Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management founder, predicted in a CNBC program earlier this month that unlike previous market crashes, the latest market volatility of 2025 could see a quick resolution because it was 'self-inflicted.' 'Unlike prior drawdowns that you've seen, like the global financial crisis, you're not going to fix the problem in a day because you've accumulated tons of bad mortgages. You're not going to fix COVID because it's a global pandemic in a day. You're not going to fix the tech bubble meltdown because you overinvested for 5 years back in the late 1990s. This you can literally fix overnight if everybody, you know, resettles the tariffs because this is a self-inflicted wound.' However, this does not mean Niles is bullish on the market in the long term. He still has valuation concerns and reiterated that he entered the year with cash as his biggest holding. Niles said his top five picks do not include any of the Mag. 7 companies, and he would remain cautious on valuations: Asked about his preferences in the current market environment, the analyst warned investors to steer clear of high valuations and big promises that lie far into the future: 'I would focus on is which companies are generating a lot of cash, which ones tend to pick up market share during recessions. Those are the types of names that you want to be in because if you're in stuff where, well, you know 10 years from now it's going to be a big market, you're going to get absolutely murdered if you get into a recession,' Niles said. READ ALSO: 7 Best Stocks to Buy For Long-Term and 8 Cheap Jim Cramer Stocks to Invest In For this article, we picked 10 stocks Wall Street analysts have been focusing on. With each stock, we have mentioned its hedge fund sentiment. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here). Copyright: prykhodov / 123RF Stock PhotoScott Devitt from Wedbush said in a latest program on Schwab Network that Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) might face headwinds in the short term, but the stock is poised for growth for the long term: It's about duration. Really, you know, on a shorter-term basis, Amazon is not in such a secular growth stage within its business that it's going to overcome a slowdown in consumer spending. So, should the consumer continue to slow, as it's already begun to do in the U.S. market, that'll contribute to a deceleration in Amazon's core business. There's no really stopping that. When you look at it from an intermediate to longer-term basis, Amazon's retail business continues to gain share of total retail on a global basis, excluding China. The advertising business is growing, mid-teens toward 20%, and AWS is a hundred-billion-dollar revenue business, also growing, depending on the quarter and comps, mid-teens to 20%. Margins are rising and should grow 20% CAGR for the next five years, barring an unforeseen recession. So, the setup for the stock is very good intermediate to long-term. Short-term, who knows? Harding Loevner Global Developed Markets Equity Strategy stated the following regarding Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) in its : 'During the quarter, we benefited from strong stocks within the Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors. In Consumer Discretionary, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported strong third-quarter results. Revenue increased by double digits, led by growth in advertising and Al products, while the company's operating margins also hit an all-time high of 11%. The key reasons for the higher margins were that its international e-commerce operations turned profitable, and there was faster growth in its high-margin cloud-computing business.' Overall, AMZN ranks 1st on our list of stocks on analysts' radar amid tariff turbulence. While we acknowledge the potential of AMZN, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AMZN but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Amazon.com (AMZN): Short-Term Shivers, Long-Term Gains?
We recently published a list of . In this article, we are going to take a look at where Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) stands against other stocks on analysts' radar amid tariff turbulence. Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management founder, predicted in a CNBC program earlier this month that unlike previous market crashes, the latest market volatility of 2025 could see a quick resolution because it was 'self-inflicted.' 'Unlike prior drawdowns that you've seen, like the global financial crisis, you're not going to fix the problem in a day because you've accumulated tons of bad mortgages. You're not going to fix COVID because it's a global pandemic in a day. You're not going to fix the tech bubble meltdown because you overinvested for 5 years back in the late 1990s. This you can literally fix overnight if everybody, you know, resettles the tariffs because this is a self-inflicted wound.' However, this does not mean Niles is bullish on the market in the long term. He still has valuation concerns and reiterated that he entered the year with cash as his biggest holding. Niles said his top five picks do not include any of the Mag. 7 companies, and he would remain cautious on valuations: Asked about his preferences in the current market environment, the analyst warned investors to steer clear of high valuations and big promises that lie far into the future: 'I would focus on is which companies are generating a lot of cash, which ones tend to pick up market share during recessions. Those are the types of names that you want to be in because if you're in stuff where, well, you know 10 years from now it's going to be a big market, you're going to get absolutely murdered if you get into a recession,' Niles said. READ ALSO: 7 Best Stocks to Buy For Long-Term and 8 Cheap Jim Cramer Stocks to Invest In For this article, we picked 10 stocks Wall Street analysts have been focusing on. With each stock, we have mentioned its hedge fund sentiment. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here). Copyright: prykhodov / 123RF Stock PhotoScott Devitt from Wedbush said in a latest program on Schwab Network that Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) might face headwinds in the short term, but the stock is poised for growth for the long term: It's about duration. Really, you know, on a shorter-term basis, Amazon is not in such a secular growth stage within its business that it's going to overcome a slowdown in consumer spending. So, should the consumer continue to slow, as it's already begun to do in the U.S. market, that'll contribute to a deceleration in Amazon's core business. There's no really stopping that. When you look at it from an intermediate to longer-term basis, Amazon's retail business continues to gain share of total retail on a global basis, excluding China. The advertising business is growing, mid-teens toward 20%, and AWS is a hundred-billion-dollar revenue business, also growing, depending on the quarter and comps, mid-teens to 20%. Margins are rising and should grow 20% CAGR for the next five years, barring an unforeseen recession. So, the setup for the stock is very good intermediate to long-term. Short-term, who knows? Harding Loevner Global Developed Markets Equity Strategy stated the following regarding Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) in its : 'During the quarter, we benefited from strong stocks within the Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors. In Consumer Discretionary, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported strong third-quarter results. Revenue increased by double digits, led by growth in advertising and Al products, while the company's operating margins also hit an all-time high of 11%. The key reasons for the higher margins were that its international e-commerce operations turned profitable, and there was faster growth in its high-margin cloud-computing business.' Overall, AMZN ranks 1st on our list of stocks on analysts' radar amid tariff turbulence. While we acknowledge the potential of AMZN, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AMZN but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Sign in to access your portfolio
