The Fed is unlikely to cut this year, says Niles Investment's Dan Niles
Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss markets, tech and the economy.
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Business Insider
a day ago
- Business Insider
The U.S. Stock Market Has Made an Impressive Comeback, but Will It Last?
The U.S. stock market has made an impressive comeback since its April slump. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPY), which plunged into correction territory following President Trump's historic tariffs, is now up over 19% from its April low. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick sees this early-year bottom as a sign that 2025 could still finish with strong gains. He compared the current setup to market comebacks in 2009 and 2020, when early-year declines of over 15% were followed by double-digit rallies. '2025 bottomed in April and the slingshot effect is in full motion,' Detrick said. Confident Investing Starts Here: However, some market experts are not as optimistic. Indeed, Dan Niles, the founder of Niles Investment Management, believes that while the current rally could push stocks to new record highs in the short term, risks are building for later this year. He argues that both consumers and corporations have been pulling demand forward to get ahead of price hikes, which may have artificially boosted near-term strength. For example, Niles pointed to when Apple (AAPL) rushed its shipments of iPhones from China to avoid paying tariffs. Looking ahead, Niles warned that the market is overlooking some troubling signals, such as rising Treasury yields and a weakening U.S. dollar. He expects that as the holiday season approaches and the effects of pulled-forward demand fade, stocks could face another sharp downturn. 'The further we get into the year, [investors should] get a lot more cautious and expect another big downdraft,' Niles said. As a result, he is maintaining a defensive portfolio and raising cash in order to prepare for potential volatility. There is no doubt that the next several months will test whether this rally has staying power or if it's running on borrowed time. Is SPY a Buy Right Now? Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on SPY stock based on 419 Buys, 79 Holds, and seven Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average SPY price target of $663.03 per share implies 10.6% upside potential.
CNBC
2 days ago
- CNBC
Record highs are in reach for Wall Street. Why Dan Niles says that's not an all-clear sign
Stocks ended the week on an upswing, propped up by a better-than-expected jobs report and a rebound for Tesla , with the S & P 500 trading above 6,000 to sniff its all-time high. If the index can break though its closing record mark of 6,144.15 from February, it would be a remarkable turnaround given the tariff and economic slowdown concerns that weighed on the market in March and April — and are still hanging around. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has rallied back to near its record high. But the rebound might be running on borrowed time, according to Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management. "I think we could get to new all-time record highs. But remember the reason I believe that, is I believe demand is being pulled forward," Niles said Friday on CNBC's "Money Movers." "If you're a rational consumer, you're buying things like smartphones, autos and PCs because you know prices are going up — you've been told that," he said, adding that companies are spending in a similar manner. If this is a temporarily inflated economy, it's not exactly a booming one. Job growth has definitely slowed, even if it is still beating monthly estimates, and there's a slow but steady drip of corporate layoff announcements . Earlier this week, an ISM purchasing managers' index showed that the service sector dipped into contraction territory in May. "Taken together, the mixed developments signal the complexity at this stage in the economic cycle as corporations adapt to the uncertainty and shifting tides," José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in a commentary note on Friday. To be sure, Niles is not betting against the market even with his medium-term concern. He said he is playing for the market bounce to continue while also considering raising more cash. "For right now that's kind of the way I'm thinking — the market just kind of meanders higher, maybe gets to new all-time highs. Wouldn't surprise me if it sells off by 10% in Q4," Niles said.
CNBC
23-05-2025
- CNBC
Intuit shares pop 9% on earnings beat, rosy guidance
Shares of Intuit popped about 9% on Friday, a day after the company reported quarterly results that beat analysts' estimates and issued rosy guidance for the full year. Intuit, which is best known for its TurboTax and QuickBooks software, said revenue in the fiscal third quarter increased 15% to $7.8 billion. Net income rose 18% to $2.82 billion, or $10.02 per share, from $2.39 billion, or $8.42 per share, a year earlier. "This is the fastest organic growth that we have had in over a decade," Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi told CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime" on Thursday. "It's really incredible growth across the platform." For its full fiscal year, Intuit said it expects to report revenue of $18.72 billion to $18.76 billion, up from the range of $18.16 billion to $18.35 billion it shared last quarter. Analysts were expecting $18.35 billion, according to LSEG. "We're redefining what's possible with [artificial intelligence] by becoming a one-stop shop of AI-agents and AI-enabled human experts to fuel the success of consumers and small and mid-market businesses," Goodarzi said in a release Thursday. Goldman Sachs analysts reiterated their buy rating on the stock and raised their price target to $860 from $750 on Thursday. The analysts said Intuit's execution across its core growth pillars is "reinforcing confidence" in its growth profile over the long term. The company's AI roadmap, which includes the introduction of AI agents, will add additional upside, the analysts added. "In our view, Intuit stands out as a rare asset straddling both consumer and business ecosystems, all while supplemented by AI-prioritization," the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note. Analysts at Deutsche Bank also reiterated their buy rating on the stock and raised their price target to $815 from $750. They said the company's results were "reassuring" after a rocky two years and that they feel more confident about its ability to grow the consumer business. "Longer term, we continue to believe Intuit presents a unique investment opportunity and we see its platform approach powering accelerated innovation with leverage, thus enabling sustained mid-teens or better EPS growth," the analysts wrote in a Friday note.
