Record highs are in reach for Wall Street. Why Dan Niles says that's not an all-clear sign
Stocks ended the week on an upswing, propped up by a better-than-expected jobs report and a rebound for Tesla , with the S & P 500 trading above 6,000 to sniff its all-time high. If the index can break though its closing record mark of 6,144.15 from February, it would be a remarkable turnaround given the tariff and economic slowdown concerns that weighed on the market in March and April — and are still hanging around. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has rallied back to near its record high. But the rebound might be running on borrowed time, according to Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management. "I think we could get to new all-time record highs. But remember the reason I believe that, is I believe demand is being pulled forward," Niles said Friday on CNBC's "Money Movers." "If you're a rational consumer, you're buying things like smartphones, autos and PCs because you know prices are going up — you've been told that," he said, adding that companies are spending in a similar manner. If this is a temporarily inflated economy, it's not exactly a booming one. Job growth has definitely slowed, even if it is still beating monthly estimates, and there's a slow but steady drip of corporate layoff announcements . Earlier this week, an ISM purchasing managers' index showed that the service sector dipped into contraction territory in May. "Taken together, the mixed developments signal the complexity at this stage in the economic cycle as corporations adapt to the uncertainty and shifting tides," José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in a commentary note on Friday. To be sure, Niles is not betting against the market even with his medium-term concern. He said he is playing for the market bounce to continue while also considering raising more cash. "For right now that's kind of the way I'm thinking — the market just kind of meanders higher, maybe gets to new all-time highs. Wouldn't surprise me if it sells off by 10% in Q4," Niles said.
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Miami Herald
an hour ago
- Miami Herald
Legendary fund manager sends blunt 6-word message on bitcoin
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If the economy were to drop off, and the Fed remained unwilling to budge on interest rates, Congress may be unable to adjust fiscal policy fast enough to bridge the gap, given our deficit and mountain of debt. The U.S. deficit is over $1.8 trillion, representing roughly 6.4% of gross domestic product. Meanwhile, total public debt outstanding is approximately 122% of GDP, far higher than its 75% level in 2008 during the Great Recession. The economic uncertainty has led to bitcoin and gold finding willing buyers as market participants look to diversify risk. Bill Gross's 50 years of Wall Street experience mean he's seen many market pops and drops, including the Nifty 50, skyrocketing inflation in the 1970s, the S&L crisis in the late 80s and early 90s, the Internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, Covid, and the 2002 bear market. More Experts Fed official sends strong message about interest-rate cutsBillionaire fund manager sends surprising message on trade deficitHedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming Greece In short, Gross has been around the block, making his take on bitcoin worth paying attention to. Gross believes bitcoin is valuable because individuals and others widely hold it, and its supply is capped. "There are now approximately 19.4 million Bitcoins priced at about 107,000 each. The supply of total coins is capped at 21 million over the next few years of "mining," wrote Gross recently on X. "While hard to estimate, approximately 90-95% are held by individuals, institutions, and the moment there is "value" to a Bitcoin." However, Gross appears to think that bitcoin's value may be reflected in its price after its recent rally. "It is in the "meme stock" world for the most part - more valuable than a Trump coin but subject to excessive volatility with underlying value hard to measure," wrote Gross. "There are better risk/reward opportunities," added Gross bluntly. "Any asset category using high leverage is a future risk not only to the asset itself but to the financial system as a whole." Related: Veteran fund manager resets stock market forecast amid Musk, Trump fallout The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Trump-Musk latest: Musk deletes posts linking Trump to Epstein
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The Hill
2 hours ago
- The Hill
Andrew Yang reaches out to Musk to collaborate on new political party
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